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  • #45,281
  • Jan 5, 2012 12:18am Jan 5, 2012 12:18am
Quoting PayTheLimit
bbl, gl, PTL..
with a new low i target 1.0812... thats a hell of a move. and many times we pullback before a move after a b/o... atm the pullback is about 220 pips.. this usually isn't enough for such a big move.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,282
  • Jan 5, 2012 12:54am Jan 5, 2012 12:54am
Quoting gatorinla
with a new low i target 1.0812... thats a hell of a move. and many times we pullback before a move after a b/o... atm the pullback is about 220 pips.. this usually isn't enough for such a big move.
area i got on the way to parity

biguns

2460/2502 area

2000/2033 area

the Gatekeeper to 1.0000 is 1.1650

if we breech that its a damn freefall
  • #45,283
  • Jan 5, 2012 1:10am Jan 5, 2012 1:10am
Quoting Wulfgar
area i got on the way to parity

biguns

2460/2502 area

2000/2033 area

the Gatekeeper to 1.0000 is 1.1650

if we breech that its a damn freefall
i dont disagree. but more times then not we retrace after the break. we did this time +-220 pips.. that usually isnt enough % wise on a big move. oil has my head fu.. it indicates higher. the euro should follow.. its gonna do what it does. i am bearish. but the things mentioned makes me skeptical atm. also 2909 wasn't as meaningful the first time we crossed as it is today. it and 2962 are future stronger #s then they show atm... we are between them atm..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,284
  • Jan 5, 2012 1:21am Jan 5, 2012 1:21am
as soon as everyone jumps on the bandwagon and says yay! euro to 1.000 then watch out it will be a sqeeze from hell to bring the pain to the groopies...

point is there is still just a ton of uncertainty so take what she will give ya its not just gonna go to 1.00 without causing euro haters to loose their minds on the way dow
  • #45,285
  • Jan 5, 2012 1:22am Jan 5, 2012 1:22am
Quoting gatorinla
i dont disagree. but more times then not we retrace after the break. we did this time +-220 pips.. that usually isnt enough % wise on a big move. oil has my head fu.. it indicates higher. the euro should follow.. its gonna do what it does. i am bearish. but the things mentioned makes me skeptical atm. also 2909 wasn't as meaningful the first time we crossed as it is today. it and 2962 are future stronger #s then they show atm... we are between them atm..
it def is interesting how we really are pretty due for a decent retrace like u are insinuating from a PA and larger TF perspective... but it just seems like we keep getting dead cat bounces comparitively with the endless black hole of horrid news out of europe feeding its demise... frankly i dont see how this thing hasnt cracked 2008 style and fallin like a brinck sub 1.2 already.... its like jesus himself is holding the EU up.... amazing
  • #45,286
  • Jan 5, 2012 1:31am Jan 5, 2012 1:31am
Quoting Wulfgar
.... its like jesus himself is holding the EU up.... amazing
maybe, or maybe jeebus is holding the usd down, since the godless liberals took prayer out of the schools and spread their gay agenda across the airwaves.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #45,287
  • Jan 5, 2012 1:35am Jan 5, 2012 1:35am
Morning all.

Catching up with charts across the board so a bit "slow" and "blur" outlook here until I get in sync after the long Holiday.

In the Euro same macro view since the rate cut
Quoting sisse
.... Rate cut unlock a whole new set of levels for next quarter .......

1.237x (floor) 1.271x (key) 1.298x (first target) new weekly FA Support levels highlighted in the charts..but that's for later so just the heads up for next quarter.

sisse
On a more short term view. Price testing weekly S 1.288x but is a weak one (inside bars) and the monthly/weekly S 1.271x (Key) is v close. Intraday and weekly range reaching exhaustion levels and in S so looking for a pullback to 1.313x in daily for considering shorts. A clean break without retrace will only extend my time on the sidelines....

GL all today and this year...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #45,288
  • Jan 5, 2012 1:37am Jan 5, 2012 1:37am
Quoting fxjawn
as soon as everyone jumps on the bandwagon and says yay! euro to 1.000 then watch out it will be a sqeeze from hell to bring the pain to the groopies...

point is there is still just a ton of uncertainty so take what she will give ya its not just gonna go to 1.00 without causing euro haters to loose their minds on the way dow
thats true bro but nothing is going to stop true deflation in the US ... its like japan... everyone jumped on the UJ after it broke 120 back in the day and it just kept being crushed...

the EU COULD drop to parity... but it will def be a bumpy ass ride nomatter how u slice it...
  • #45,289
  • Jan 5, 2012 1:37am Jan 5, 2012 1:37am
Quoting Wulfgar
it def is interesting how we really are pretty due for a decent retrace like u are insinuating from a PA and larger TF perspective... but it just seems like we keep getting dead cat bounces comparitively with the endless black hole of horrid news out of europe feeding its demise... frankly i dont see how this thing hasnt cracked 2008 style and fallin like a brinck sub 1.2 already.... its like jesus himself is holding the EU up.... amazing
e banks are selling assets still. when they do to foreigners, the foreign currency is converted to euros. causing a buy and a euro demand. oil going up also weakens the usd. it weakens it as we can see st.. it also raises the deficit in the usd comparably to when oil is cheaper. since we import oil it hurts the usd. since we import cheap crap from china made from/packaged with oil made plastics. it just adds more. a small percentage in the rise in oil adds a greater amount to the usd weakness. because % wise the u.s. imports more.

it usually but not always works against the yen when oil rises also.. since they import 100% of their oil.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,290
  • Jan 5, 2012 1:39am Jan 5, 2012 1:39am
Quoting The Fool
maybe, or maybe jeebus is holding the usd down, since the godless liberals took prayer out of the schools and spread their gay agenda across the airwaves.
jeebus haites teh liberals and the geigh agendas

what r u seein in the crap brother? U jumpin on the bear bandwagon at all?
  • #45,291
  • Jan 5, 2012 1:41am Jan 5, 2012 1:41am
Quoting sisse
Morning all.

Catching up with charts across the board so a bit "slow" and "blur" outlook here until I get in sync after the long Holiday.

In the Euro same macro view since the rate cut

On a more short term view. Price testing weekly S 1.288x but is a weak one (inside bars) and the monthly/weekly S 1.271x (Key) is v close. Intraday and weekly range reaching exhaustion levels and in S so looking for a pullback to 1.313x in daily for considering shorts. A clean break without retrace will only extend my time on the sidelines....

GL all today...

sisse!

hope u had a good vacation my friend

nice to seeyou back.... we got the french bond issuance today... should be a definate mover....
  • #45,292
  • Jan 5, 2012 1:45am Jan 5, 2012 1:45am
Quoting gatorinla
e banks are selling assets still. when they do to foreigners, the foreign currency is converted to euros. causing a buy and a euro demand. oil going up also weakens the usd. it weakens it as we can see st.. it also raises the deficit in the usd comparably to when oil is cheaper. since we import oil it hurts the usd. since we import cheap crap from china made from/packaged with oil made plastics. it just adds more. a small percentage in the rise in oil adds a greater amount to the usd weakness. because % wise the u.s. imports more.

it usually but...
well that is the big reason these bond auctions are such big news.... we are seeing the Euro tumble every time an auction fails to attract much foreign demand of the yields rise to literally unmanageable levels

so its a battle of waning foreign interest in Euro asset sales vs the market pricing in massive scale QE by the ECB and their balance sheet just keeps growing and growing to try and back ever rising soverign yields that are unsustainable...


also the oil moves are going to be radical for sure since the Iran thing is heating up... def watching how they manage the straits of hormuz(sp?)...
  • #45,293
  • Jan 5, 2012 1:51am Jan 5, 2012 1:51am
Quoting Wulfgar
what r u seein in the crap brother? U jumpin on the bear bandwagon at all?
I'm really just gettin back on the horse today, scalped a few pips. Have not read any finance news since b4 xmas. i think there's a summit coming soon, or an invasion, maybe an alien papal abduction, need a clue somehow. I watched the Secret Circle marathon on CW all week, saw the republikkkans suckin up to the Ioway homeland, boy I cant wait till we get a godly man in the White House what will nuke all the gay whales and take back our oyul from the muzzies, then we'll see a strong doller bahgawd

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #45,294
  • Jan 5, 2012 1:53am Jan 5, 2012 1:53am
Quoting Wulfgar
sisse!

hope u had a good vacation my friend

nice to seeyou back.... we got the french bond issuance today... should be a definate mover....
Thanks mate, I did have a great time out of the screens.... I hope you had a good one too.

Well yes with the auction but ADP/NFP rules and will mark the beginning of the trading year in my books.

On the bond side. This link will be handy, especially until the Key and big March auctions ....http://europa.eu/efc/sub_committee/e...9/index_en.htm

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #45,295
  • Jan 5, 2012 1:55am Jan 5, 2012 1:55am
one more I note is 3004, the mid from tuesday, which has been the swing high thus far, yest/mid is 2984ish...

@ Sisse, welcome back brother...
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #45,296
  • Jan 5, 2012 1:56am Jan 5, 2012 1:56am
Quoting Wulfgar
well that is the big reason these bond auctions are such big news.... we are seeing the Euro tumble every time an auction fails to attract much foreign demand of the yields rise to literally unmanageable levels

so its a battle of waning foreign interest in Euro asset sales vs the market pricing in massive scale QE by the ECB and their balance sheet just keeps growing and growing to try and back ever rising soverign yields that are unsustainable...


also the oil moves are going to be radical for sure since the Iran thing is heating up... def watching...
if it gets above 62 .. she may run some.. she just targeted 59
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,297
  • Jan 5, 2012 2:00am Jan 5, 2012 2:00am
hold on

is sisse male?
and chicky?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,298
  • Jan 5, 2012 2:02am Jan 5, 2012 2:02am
Quoting gatorinla
hold on

is sisse male?
and chicky?
yes both boi's

u ever heard of that guy doogie howser?
  • #45,299
  • Jan 5, 2012 2:03am Jan 5, 2012 2:03am
Quoting sisse
Thanks mate, I did have a great time out of the screens.... I hope you had a good one too.

Well yes with the auction but ADP/NFP rules and will mark the beginning of the trading year in my books.

On the bond side. This link will be handy, especially until the Key and big March auctions ....http://europa.eu/efc/sub_committee/e...9/index_en.htm

sisse
great link! thanks sisse!

and u r right about the NFPs... we could see some serious action from the results on that sucker
  • #45,300
  • Jan 5, 2012 2:07am Jan 5, 2012 2:07am
Quoting Wulfgar
great link! thanks sisse!
ditto, i been lookin for something like that
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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