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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #29,361
  • Jan 2, 2012 3:46am Jan 2, 2012 3:46am
Quoting FXMindset
if u were Japan Finance Minister advisor,What would you suggest
Well, first of all I dont have a Holy Grail ;-)

But, I would try something else after all these sell offs. What about not waiting to intervene after price has come all the way back to the initial action point ? Why not a burst of interventions ? Not saying that that's the 'wonder' recipe, but it sure would make investors clear that the BOJ is serious about their attempts.

I dont believe or have faith in trying things over and over again when they have clearly proven to be NON-effective. Just my 2 cents !
  • #29,362
  • Jan 2, 2012 3:48am Jan 2, 2012 3:48am
Quoting SIgurs
Well, first of all I dont have a Holy Grail ;-)

But, I would try something else after all these sell offs. What about not waiting to intervene after price has come all the way back to the initial action point ? Why not a burst of interventions ? Not saying that that's the 'wonder' recipe, but it sure would make investors clear that the BOJ is serious about their attempts.

I dont believe or have faith in trying things over and over again when they have clearly proven to be NON-effective. Just my 2 cents !
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #29,363
  • Jan 2, 2012 9:03am Jan 2, 2012 9:03am
BOJ can't possibly absorb all dollars or euros that would come from panicked investors looking for safe haven. All they can do is dissuade them. After the interventions the BOJ still keeps selling at pivotal places. This buys time. Perhaps the euro will get more stable in time. Perhaps the investors will avoid jpy because they see the high gdp to debt ratio without sustained exports as a worsening economic outlook. This is all cyclical and they are doing what is needed.
  • #29,364
  • Jan 2, 2012 11:34am Jan 2, 2012 11:34am
I'd hate to be in Azumi's or his collegues shoes. In fact it doesnt make sense, now does it:

- Japan is still struggling with the enormous consequences of the 2011 tsunami
- they have a rapidly aging population
- huge debt to gdp ratio
- companies have huge problems due to the ongoing appreciation of the Yen

And yet, despite all of the above, the Yen keeps on trucking as if all of the above isnt there. As a shorter I'd hate to see the day that the world wakes up and realizes that the Yen is in fact way overvalued. Then again, lets play the game as long as it lasts. Hell, the Usd/Jpy could be heading towards 72 to 74 and who knows, even to sub 70 before this pair reverses structurally. Anyhow, seems to me that its way too early to confidently play the long side for some time to come.

Look at the Yen pairs, they almost all are well below or close to last years lows and they still have plenty of room to go lower. Especially when we see that the EU is still not able able to fight its debt crisis, even after trying to do so for years and desoite countless numbers of summits. The Yen will not depreciate as long as the need for a safe haven is still out there. Given the speed at which the EU makes its moves it could take another few years.

All just my 2 cents !
  • #29,365
  • Jan 2, 2012 11:36am Jan 2, 2012 11:36am
Quoting SIgurs
I'd hate to be in Azumi's or his collegues shoes. In fact it doesnt make sense, now does it:

- Japan is still struggling with the enormous consequences of the 2011 tsunami
- they have a rapidly aging population
- huge debt to gdp ratio
- companies have huge problems due to the ongoing appreciation of the Yen

And yet, despite all of the above, the Yen keeps on trucking as if all of the above isnt there. As a shorter I'd hate to see the day that the world wakes up and realizes that the Yen is in fact way overvalued. Then again, lets play the game...

but the questionarie from boj to other overseas big bank before should take as a precaution.....since it hint the intervention will not be happen only at the tokyo session......means a "surprise" intervention..
Bismillah
  • #29,366
  • Jan 2, 2012 11:41am Jan 2, 2012 11:41am
Quoting krunfx
but the questionarie from boj to other overseas big bank before should take as a precaution.....since it hint the intervention will not be happen only at the tokyo session......means a "surprise" intervention..
More like stealth intervention
  • #29,367
  • Jan 2, 2012 11:44am Jan 2, 2012 11:44am
I somewhere read that one reason for the strengh of the yen is it's liquidity and it's low volatility. The big boys can get in and out very fast as an alternative to the usd. And that's how to see the safe haven status.
  • #29,368
  • Jan 2, 2012 11:45am Jan 2, 2012 11:45am
Quoting werido
More like stealth intervention
thats is another measure from BOJ if G7 cant help them soon i think...
Bismillah
  • #29,369
  • Jan 2, 2012 11:47am Jan 2, 2012 11:47am
Quoting krunfx
thats is another measure from BOJ if G7 cant help them soon i think...
Which G7 summit?
  • #29,370
  • Jan 2, 2012 11:49am Jan 2, 2012 11:49am
Intervention on 24 jan.( target 86)
wait to see 74 or 72 UJ.

Quoting SIgurs
I'd hate to be in Azumi's or his collegues shoes. In fact it doesnt make sense, now does it:

- Japan is still struggling with the enormous consequences of the 2011 tsunami
- they have a rapidly aging population
- huge debt to gdp ratio
- companies have huge problems due to the ongoing appreciation of the Yen

And yet, despite all of the above, the Yen keeps on trucking as if all of the above isnt there. As a shorter I'd hate to see the day that the world wakes up and realizes that the Yen is in fact way overvalued. Then again, lets play...
" you can't consume more than you produce "
  • #29,371
  • Jan 2, 2012 11:50am Jan 2, 2012 11:50am
i think major trend shift is coming within months now, with or without intervention
  • #29,372
  • Jan 2, 2012 11:51am Jan 2, 2012 11:51am
Quoting Memnonxxi
Intervention on 24 jan.( target 86)
wait to see 74 or 72 UJ.
why the yentervention u said 24 jan?reason?..hehe
Bismillah
  • #29,373
  • Jan 2, 2012 11:52am Jan 2, 2012 11:52am
Quoting Memnonxxi
Intervention on 24 jan.( target 86)
wait to see 74 or 72 UJ.
Why would they intervene before the Jan 30 summit? That could be another waste.
  • #29,374
  • Jan 2, 2012 11:53am Jan 2, 2012 11:53am
Quoting krunfx
but the questionarie from boj to other overseas big bank before should take as a precaution.....since it hint the intervention will not be happen only at the tokyo session......means a "surprise" intervention..
I'm pretty confident that the Boj is getting nervous and desperate. They have tried to gather support from other CB's numerous times ... in vain, as other countries love the fact that their exports are getting cheaper. Just read last weeks US comments about Japanese intervention ... leave it up to the markets they say ;-)

They lack the confidence and are seeking support and approval. Unfortunately for them, they are facing this currency war alone and this fact probably scares the hell out of them. A confident Boj would have intervened way sooner and not wait till price is almost back to pre intervention level.

No wonder that every bounce is being sold off. Shorters have these Boj guys for lunch. Dont believe me, look at the charts ... they dont have an agenda, they never lie.
  • #29,375
  • Jan 2, 2012 11:55am Jan 2, 2012 11:55am
Quoting werido
Why would they intervene before the Jan 30 summit? That could be another waste.
true.....at least if they want...the time best for intervene is

1.after eu summit
2.after nfp....

hehe...
Bismillah
  • #29,376
  • Jan 2, 2012 11:57am Jan 2, 2012 11:57am
Quoting SIgurs
I'd hate to be in Azumi's or his collegues shoes. In fact it doesnt make sense, now does it:

- Japan is still struggling with the enormous consequences of the 2011 tsunami
- they have a rapidly aging population
- huge debt to gdp ratio
- companies have huge problems due to the ongoing appreciation of the Yen

And yet, despite all of the above, the Yen keeps on trucking as if all of the above isnt there. As a shorter I'd hate to see the day that the world wakes up and realizes that the Yen is in fact way overvalued. Then again, lets play...
SIgurs Studied @ Japan before?
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #29,377
  • Jan 2, 2012 11:57am Jan 2, 2012 11:57am
Quoting SIgurs
I'm pretty confident that the Boj is getting nervous and desperate. They have tried to gather support from other CB's numerous times ... in vain, as other countries love the fact that their exports are getting cheaper. Just read last weeks US comments about Japanese intervention ... leave it up to the markets they say ;-)

They lack the confidence and are seeking support and approval. Unfortunately for them, they are facing this currency war alone and this fact probably scares the hell out of them. A confident Boj would have intervened way sooner...
ehehe...ok....we should wait for AZUMI comment about recent yen gain on wednesday market for anther sign since tommorw JAPAN market close...
Bismillah
  • #29,378
  • Jan 2, 2012 11:58am Jan 2, 2012 11:58am
Quoting SIgurs
I'm pretty confident that the Boj is getting nervous and desperate. They have tried to gather support from other CB's numerous times ... in vain, as other countries love the fact that their exports are getting cheaper. Just read last weeks US comments about Japanese intervention ... leave it up to the markets they say ;-)

They lack the confidence and are seeking support and approval. Unfortunately for them, they are facing this currency war alone and this fact probably scares the hell out of them. A confident Boj would have intervened way sooner...

It might weaken their economy and then the yen will fall. But that's a last case scenario for them. That's why they're bypassing the usd in the FX and going directly to China for an exchange.
  • #29,379
  • Jan 2, 2012 12:03pm Jan 2, 2012 12:03pm
Quoting SIgurs
I'm pretty confident that the Boj is getting nervous and desperate. They have tried to gather support from other CB's numerous times ... in vain, as other countries love the fact that their exports are getting cheaper. Just read last weeks US comments about Japanese intervention ... leave it up to the markets they say ;-)

They lack the confidence and are seeking support and approval. Unfortunately for them, they are facing this currency war alone and this fact probably scares the hell out of them. A confident Boj would have intervened way sooner...

The U.S. want a the dollar weak. That's good for stocks and exports which the U.S. would like to increase on some fundamental level.
  • #29,380
  • Jan 2, 2012 12:07pm Jan 2, 2012 12:07pm
Quoting werido
The U.S. want a the dollar weak. That's good for stocks and exports which the U.S. would like to increase on some fundamental level.
thats why they blame China n Japan on their FX...
Bismillah
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