EURUSD

Iranian rial , who cares , oil traded in us$

Iran supplies 20% of global crude...

yes but oil priced in us$ , and Iran can continue to export oil to china and India.

1)Fiscal tightening in the US in 2012:
if the payroll tax credit and unemployment insurance (worth c2.5% of GDP) are not renewed, US GDP growth would be close to ½%. We assume that payroll tax cuts and unemployment benefit will be renewed and thus fiscal tightening is 1.4% of GDP. When combined with the end of the investment tax credit and an already low savings ratio, our base case is that ISM will fall to 50 from c53 in Q1 2012

2)Europe. PMIs are consistent with minus 1% GDP (and this excluding the full effect of fiscal tightening, a reduction in banks’ RWA of around
€2-3trn -which causes a c5% reduction in credit- and a 5% to 15% wage decline in peripheral Europe). We think that the problems in the periphery are more enduring than consensus believes, given that current accounts have to end up in balance from a deficit of c9% of GDP in Portugal and Greece and 3-4% of GDP in Italy and Spain and the cost of bringing private sector leverage down from the current 230% of GDP in Spain and Portugal will, we believe, push up the government debt to GDP ratio to 100% in Spain and 145% in Portugal by 2014

3)There are five fundamental problems in the Euro-area: i) Growth; ii) de-leveraging of banks; iii) addressing the solvency of the insolvent (potentially Portugal and Ireland); iv) mutualisation of debt and (v) a more effective ring-fence for solvent countries (Italy and Spain). The recent Brussels summit has done little to alter i), ii) and iii) but has helped make a step towards (iv) and (v). We had wanted to see, in the near term, the ECB stepping up its SMP programme and, in the long run, a move to fiscal union
followed by Eurobonds; it is not clear we have seen much of this from the Brussels summit. We have had a move towards fiscal union, but the step up in the SMP we think will follow (although recent comments have been discouraging and there is no commitment to a Eurobond). We continue to believe that the chances of a Euro-break up are small (5%) because the direct cost to core Europe is € 600bn (the same cost as a peripheral Euro bail out) and the indirect costs much higher.

4)China: we think there will be a soft landing, with GDP growth of 8-8.5% in 2012E. The risk to this benign scenario is housing, which accounts for a fifth of GDP (and currently housing starts are almost 80% above underlying demand)



Abstracted from Economic report...Happy digesting..

euro bounced on 2924 the second time

Only Chart Analisys by a Beginner....

check for worms

Up or Down? Dimag ka dahi ho gaya..!!

make kadi from dahi

+80 collected today

market still choppy due to holiday impact..

but trade able

break this point euro tend to test lower again....!!

India and china, they have a huge asset bubble and inflation to solve

INR has fallen 30% yoy

US is the biggest consumer of oil.... even now...

Merkel and Sarkozy to Mee in Berlin on Jan 9 to Prepare for Eu Talks- French Govt

Still locked in onEU sell--Taking a BUY on GBPUSD @ 1.5485-
STOPS 1.5468-LIMIT 1.5555--EURGBP has a PRICE GAP around 0.8329
look for EUR to weaken more then GBP--

so when do you guys think there will be a french downgrade, S&P said they will announce it in early january.Question is, when and at what time?

break red point should be DT...to lows

level 1 gone, 2 in sight

Hey,
I've written an article on VSA,

Take a read and hope you enjoy it

http://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-a...nalysis&id=487

Jeremy