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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #29,341
  • Dec 31, 2011 7:11pm Dec 31, 2011 7:11pm
please pardon my ignorance, but doesn't a weak USD/JPY show strength not weakness of the Jap currency?

I have asked myself that question in the past: the USD/CHF moves in unison, but the /JPY is something of a maverick.
  • #29,342
  • Dec 31, 2011 7:31pm Dec 31, 2011 7:31pm
Quoting Alfie
please pardon my ignorance, but doesn't a weak USD/JPY show strength not weakness of the Jap currency?

I have asked myself that question in the past: the USD/CHF moves in unison, but the /JPY is something of a maverick.
Open the note of the pair concept back..
Bismillah
  • #29,343
  • Jan 1, 2012 2:50am Jan 1, 2012 2:50am
Krunfx, it is good of you to reply to my question, but you are speaking in riddles.

elsewhere, you have stated that the Yen should be weaker .. so why isn't it? it is actually firming vs the Dollar.

I know this is an old-fashioned view, but to me a strong currency is preferable to a weak one.

take the Aussie .. can't help admiring the way it stays above par .. & there's nothing wrong with the underlying economy as compared to its rivals.

what I mean is: all the currency-pairs move up or down respectively, with or against the USDollar .. depending whether they are in front of (E-U, G-U) or behind (U-C, U-Cad) .. the U-J being the exception, considering that it's the USDollar calls the tune.
  • #29,344
  • Jan 1, 2012 3:52am Jan 1, 2012 3:52am
Quoting Alfie
Krunfx, it is good of you to reply to my question, but you are speaking in riddles.

elsewhere, you have stated that the Yen should be weaker .. so why isn't it? it is actually firming vs the Dollar.

I know this is an old-fashioned view, but to me a strong currency is preferable to a weak one.

take the Aussie .. can't help admiring the way it stays above par .. & there's nothing wrong with the underlying economy as compared to its rivals.

what I mean is: all the currency-pairs move up or down respectively, with or against the...
Riddles?hehe

let me xplain..

From my view..i will not buy the yen because for every yen gain..the yentervention speculation will resurface as long yen under 80Y..so why we not play safe?just wait n take oppurtunity to buy it when reverse carry trade occur?
Bismillah
  • #29,345
  • Jan 1, 2012 4:25am Jan 1, 2012 4:25am
Quoting Alfie
Krunfx, it is good of you to reply to my question, but you are speaking in riddles.

elsewhere, you have stated that the Yen should be weaker .. so why isn't it? it is actually firming vs the Dollar.

I know this is an old-fashioned view, but to me a strong currency is preferable to a weak one.

take the Aussie .. can't help admiring the way it stays above par .. & there's nothing wrong with the underlying economy as compared to its rivals.

what I mean is: all the currency-pairs move up or down respectively, with or against the USDollar .....
OK, taking the AUDUSD as the example ... For years it had an "median" value against the USD of around 75 cents. In recent times the AUD has appreciated by around 35% and you hear constant complaints from exporters and the inbound tourism sector about the effect of that currency appreciation on their respective businesses. Australia imports about as much as it exports, so not all business are adversely affected.

Moving to the USDJPY, not so many years ago it was priced at more than 200 Y to the $. Following the Plaza Accord, it began a run down into the 120~140 area. Now, it's sitting at around half that. The effect on exporters is becoming crippling, with consequent flow-ons to public welfare (manufacturing moving offshore, unemployment rising etc). Japan has long been a net exporter, with oil and raw materials being the larger imports.

Certainly, the major contributor to both exchange rates having moved is the USD, it's just that the USDJPY has moved more than others (eg Aussie) because more people are buying it, believing it to be a safe haven currency.

Having a strong currency can be a good thing, but not when it becomes counter-poductive. For that reason, the Japanese Govt makes a lot of noise about the Yen relationship with other currencies.
  • #29,346
  • Jan 1, 2012 4:49am Jan 1, 2012 4:49am
Quoting Mpt
OK, taking the AUDUSD as the example ... For years it had an "median" value against the USD of around 75 cents. In recent times the AUD has appreciated by around 35% and you hear constant complaints from exporters and the inbound tourism sector about the effect of that currency appreciation on their respective businesses. Australia imports about as much as it exports, so not all business are adversely affected.

Moving to the USDJPY, not so many years ago it was priced at more than 200 Y to the $. Following the Plaza Accord, it began a run down...
200Y??? POund YEN or Dollar yen???

from my chart i see highest is 160 at 1990.....and before 2008 financial crisis is about 125.....if im eror please correct me..thanks
Bismillah
  • #29,347
  • Jan 1, 2012 5:22am Jan 1, 2012 5:22am
Quoting krunfx
From my view..i will not buy the yen because for every yen gain..the yentervention speculation will resurface as long yen under 80Y..so why we not play safe?
Take a look at charts and then tell us again why buying Yen is not a safe play !
For years buying Yen has been a smart and safe play as each and every bounce has been sold off with confidence.

Intervention and tought talk have been excellent opportunities to buy.
  • #29,348
  • Jan 1, 2012 5:28am Jan 1, 2012 5:28am
Quoting SIgurs
Take a look at charts and then tell us again why buying Yen is not a safe play !
For years buying Yen has been a smart and safe play as each and every bounce has been sold off with confidence.

Intervention and tought talk have been excellent opportunities to buy.
Dont mess with our Intevention Expert - Mr.SIgurs
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #29,349
  • Edited 6:23am Jan 1, 2012 5:28am | Edited 6:23am
Quoting SIgurs
Take a look at charts and then tell us again why buying Yen is not a safe play !
For years buying Yen has been a smart and safe play as each and every bounce has been sold off with confidence.

Intervention and tought talk have been excellent opportunities to buy.


hahhaa.....recently not a play safe because....

1.....yen have touch post war low....
2. Japan authorities tend to help exporters
3. yentervention should resurface on the gaining of the yen...


so....this is a reason of my statement......and i prefer to sell it at the yen at Dollar Yen lower price....if u want to buy a yen...depend...but should take a precaution on the JUN AZUMi..hehe
Bismillah
  • #29,350
  • Jan 1, 2012 5:52am Jan 1, 2012 5:52am
Quoting krunfx
200Y??? POund YEN or Dollar yen???

from my chart i see highest is 160 at 1990.....and before 2008 financial crisis is about 125.....if im eror please correct me..thanks
Someone else's chart that I found ....


Attached Image
  • #29,351
  • Jan 1, 2012 5:55am Jan 1, 2012 5:55am
Quoting Mpt
Someone else's chart that I found ....


Attachment

hehhee.....sory2.....i just see from 1990 only and not the previous .......u are correct....
Bismillah
  • #29,352
  • Edited 7:46am Jan 1, 2012 7:33am | Edited 7:46am
Checking the old chart , very difficult prevent the dialy,weekly diamond sell but still great breakout also happened around this level & next levels of interest , present 76.89 ,76.48 & last reaction low 75.48 should be specially for validation or abortion> both possible , like abortion this time though .or even with false break .
fontu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd4.gif Size: 18 KB
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #29,353
  • Jan 1, 2012 8:14am Jan 1, 2012 8:14am
Hehe ok..i just choose the safest one for now..whatever hapen i still favor buying dollar yen at lower price..
Bismillah
  • #29,354
  • Jan 1, 2012 11:52am Jan 1, 2012 11:52am
Quoting FXMindset
Dont mess with our Intevention Expert - Mr.SIgurs
I have no doubt that intervention is coming our way again. Question is whether it will have a lasting effect. So, as long as this strong downtrend isnt broken I will keep on shorting every single bounce.

Charts tell us that bounces are a safe place to short. Anticipating intervention is more like gambling as we dont know when it will happen ... at 76, 75, 74, 70 ?

Go with the odds ....
  • #29,355
  • Jan 1, 2012 12:21pm Jan 1, 2012 12:21pm
Quoting SIgurs
I have no doubt that intervention is coming our way again. Question is whether it will have a lasting effect. So, as long as this strong downtrend isnt broken I will keep on shorting every single bounce.

Charts tell us that bounces are a safe place to short. Anticipating intervention is more like gambling as we dont know when it will happen ... at 76, 75, 74, 70 ?

Go with the odds ....
am agreed,
now am only need to see 78.00 level broken to see the trend from 2010 high till now its valid or not,

Hope you are doing well SIgurs and Keep sharing
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #29,356
  • Jan 1, 2012 1:09pm Jan 1, 2012 1:09pm
Quoting FXMindset
am agreed,
now am only need to see 78.00 level broken to see the trend from 2010 high till now its valid or not,

Hope you are doing well SIgurs and Keep sharing
intervention had been done twice last year if im not mistaking,one after the quake and one in october i think,and it was just a waste of money as it didnt last or stick.Even the frank intervention hast stick up yet properly after it rose nearly 2000 pips,yet they started to threaten again with another intervention.so this doesnt seem like a good idea if nothings changes economy wise,but anyway happy new year and lets see what the black dragon brings us this year
  • #29,357
  • Jan 2, 2012 3:17am Jan 2, 2012 3:17am
Hoping and praying that Azumi intervenes ... would love to short it again. Please Azumi, please please please give us some of your tough talk combined with some good old intervention ;-)

What an easy way to trade the Yen, just sit back, wait and relax !
  • #29,358
  • Jan 2, 2012 3:22am Jan 2, 2012 3:22am
Quoting SIgurs
Hoping and praying that Azumi intervenes ... would love to short it again. Please Azumi, please please please give us some of your tough talk combined with some good old intervention ;-)

What an easy way to trade the Yen, just sit back, wait and relax !
Lol
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #29,359
  • Jan 2, 2012 3:36am Jan 2, 2012 3:36am
Quoting FXMindset
Lol
You know what puzzles me ? Why do they keep on resorting to the same old recipes, recipes that have prooven NOT to be effective over and over again. Each and every intervention is sold and yet they keep on doing the same old thing ...

Lack of imagination, guts or still stuck into old school copying behaviour ... anyone ?
  • #29,360
  • Jan 2, 2012 3:39am Jan 2, 2012 3:39am
Quoting SIgurs
You know what puzzles me ? Why do they keep on resorting to the same old recipes, recipes that have prooven NOT to be effective over and over again. Each and every intervention is sold and yet they keep on doing the same old thing ...

Lack of imagination, guts or still stuck into old school copying behaviour ... anyone ?
if u were Japan Finance Minister advisor,What would you suggest
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
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