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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #29,321
  • Dec 30, 2011 11:21am Dec 30, 2011 11:21am
I'm totally shocked that the boj or snb didn't use today's thin markets to step in and kick up their currencies. But I guess they too are doing accounting and pulling out. Better luck down the line. c u all in 2012
  • #29,322
  • Dec 30, 2011 11:26am Dec 30, 2011 11:26am
Quoting krunfx
automakers want 94Y atleast......it should be pressure to Japan authorities to make it done lto that point amid EZ crisiss....thats why Japan volunteer to help EZ to contain it debt problem..
Look at EJ... its crushed .. i sense if 70 breaks.... repeat of 2000 dot-com type burst....

Looks like europe and US importing deflation from japan...

deflation is like a black hole... prosperity just vanishes
  • #29,323
  • Dec 30, 2011 11:28am Dec 30, 2011 11:28am
Quoting werido
I'm totally shocked that the boj or snb didn't use today's thin markets to step in and kick up their currencies. But I guess they too are doing accounting and pulling out. Better luck down the line. c u all in 2012
because in jan we have eu summit and S&P result for euro..
Bismillah
  • #29,324
  • Edited 1:52pm Dec 30, 2011 11:59am | Edited 1:52pm
Quoting aragami
Question is if Japan can wait that long, exporters atleast.
Funny thing is that Japan HAS GOT to wait, they have no other option but to hope and pray that the EU solves this crisis asap. Each and every intervention has lead to a complete sell off ... over and over again. Intervention buys a limited amount of time, nothing more, nothing less ... unless they peg the jpy, which they, imo, wont do.

Waiting for the EU burocratic bunch to sort out the mess they are in ... could take months/years ... time Japanese companies dont have.

Lets face it, boj and mof are caught between a rock and a hard place. Have said it many moons ago, shorting jpy bounces is the best way to go around. Very limited risk as history teaches us that they are sold ... consistently ;-)
  • #29,325
  • Dec 30, 2011 2:25pm Dec 30, 2011 2:25pm
Still think that Boj has things under control ? LOL

270 back in 1983 - 140 in 1999 - 120 in 2008 - 77 in 2011 ... oh yeah, this is one nasty downtrend. Looking at those numbers one kind of has the impression that the Boj is crippled. Mr Azumi can warn and threat all he wants ... succesfully fighting this downtrend via plain interventions is way above Boj's capabilities and just a waste of money and efforts.
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  • #29,326
  • Dec 30, 2011 2:28pm Dec 30, 2011 2:28pm
yes, i think that next target is up

Quoting SIgurs
Still think that Boj has things under control ? LOL
" you can't consume more than you produce "
  • #29,327
  • Dec 30, 2011 2:50pm Dec 30, 2011 2:50pm
Quoting Memnonxxi
yes, i think that next target is up
Could be up indeed ... main question is whether any move up will be sustainable. Safest trades sofar turn out to be those on the short side.

Downtrend might come to an end when EU solves internal problems ... any idea at what speed EU moves forward ? 2011 gave us top summit after top summit and each and every time they've told us that things were under control ... only to wake up the next day and find out that the emperor was, again, walking around naked ;-)
  • #29,328
  • Dec 30, 2011 3:11pm Dec 30, 2011 3:11pm
Each trader must believe in its own strategy.
About EUR, everyone is pointing its finger to Europe. (Why?) Because the simple idea of ​​honest work is a problem and to print money to throw money left and right is a modern life.
I think in 2012 Euro is going to recover temporarily until summer, target 1.40, then serious problems are coming up for Europe. (Target 1.20).
To survive the crisis in Europe, we need a climate of confidence in the Euro, and to destroy Yen and CHF. (BOJ massive intervention and SNP)
I am very sure that in 2012 Australia and New Zealand will go into a big financial crisis.


Quoting SIgurs
Could be up indeed ... main question is whether any move up will be sustainable. Safest trades sofar turn out to be those on the short side.

Downtrend might come to an end when EU solves internal problems ... any idea at what speed EU moves forward ? 2011 gave us top summit after top summit and each and every time they've told us that things were under control ... only to wake up the next day and find out that the emperor was, again, walking around naked ;-)
" you can't consume more than you produce "
  • #29,329
  • Dec 30, 2011 3:27pm Dec 30, 2011 3:27pm
Quoting Memnonxxi
Because the simple idea of ​​honest work is a problem and to print money to throw money left and right is a modern life.
Austerity alone won't pull countries in trouble out of the mud. Going for Eurobonds doesn't mean that the money press is on. Think EU needs Eurobonds coupled to more financial integration and control. I even think that markets will force the EU to do so ... otherwise the EU will seize to exist.

Persuing the path they have been following, austerity, austerity, austerity will lead to even more economic deterioration. No country can survive when being forced to pay more than 7% on loans ... simple math. Remember Eurozone members no longer are able to depreciate their currency to facilitate export growth.

Therefore:

- more fiscal unity
- stronger budget control
- more solidarity in order to give countries the opportunity to get out of the mess they are in

Not implementing the above will lead to EU implosion.
  • #29,330
  • Dec 30, 2011 4:07pm Dec 30, 2011 4:07pm
What's the effect of Japanese interventions ? Well, the lates one resulted in a approximately 400 pip move ... only to see it, once again, being sold off. Well, still about 130 pips left. LOL

- when will the Boj realize that plain interventions don't work ?
- will they intervene once again, knowing that it will not result in a sustainable move ?
- will they keep on spending billions of Yen just to buy a few weeks of time ?
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  • #29,331
  • Dec 30, 2011 4:16pm Dec 30, 2011 4:16pm
Please cau u search Romania, it's the best country in the work with the Austerity ( loans 13%, 25% red salary and Vat from 19% to 24%) In 2 years, have the best growth economy in the Europe( 4% in Q3)

Quoting SIgurs
Austerity alone won't pull countries in trouble out of the mud. Going for Eurobonds doesn't mean that the money press is on. Think EU needs Eurobonds coupled to more financial integration and control. I even think that markets will force the EU to do so ... otherwise the EU will seize to exist.

Persuing the path they have been following, austerity, austerity, austerity will lead to even more economic deterioration. No country can survive when being forced to pay more than 7% on loans ... simple math. Remember Eurozone members no longer are able...
" you can't consume more than you produce "
  • #29,332
  • Dec 30, 2011 5:40pm Dec 30, 2011 5:40pm
Quoting Memnonxxi
Please cau u search Romania, it's the best country in the work with the Austerity ( loans 13%, 25% red salary and Vat from 19% to 24%) In 2 years, have the best growth economy in the Europe( 4% in Q3)
Comparing Romania with developed countries like eg Spain seems rather far fetched ;-)
  • #29,333
  • Dec 30, 2011 7:25pm Dec 30, 2011 7:25pm
Where u guys think this pair will go for in 2012 ?

73.00 ? 70.00 ?

Its looking pretty weak on the upside....BOJ intervention
didn't sustain....
  • #29,334
  • Dec 30, 2011 7:31pm Dec 30, 2011 7:31pm
Quoting Demon Bane
Where u guys think this pair will go for in 2012 ?

73.00 ? 70.00 ?

Its looking pretty weak on the upside....BOJ intervention
didn't sustain....

they should have a another mesurement.......by doing intervention other than toko market to surprise trader soon.!!
Bismillah
  • #29,335
  • Dec 31, 2011 2:11am Dec 31, 2011 2:11am
Quoting krunfx
they should have a another mesurement.......by doing intervention other than toko market to surprise trader soon.!!
Intervention doesnt work !!!

In 2011 the Japanese authorities spend the largest amount ever, 14trillion Yen, in a desperate attempt to weaken the Yen. Now tell me, whats the result ?

Indeed, the Yen appreciated even further despite Boj actions against all major currency pairs. Imo, the above is verifiable proof of the fact that conventional intervention buys nothing but a few weeks time before the decline is back on track.

Current events still force investors to seek large safe havens. It seems that the Yen is one of the few left.

Appreciation of the Yen aint over just yet unless EU circus takes swift action. Somehow I dont see that happening ;-) LOL
  • #29,336
  • Dec 31, 2011 3:10am Dec 31, 2011 3:10am
Quoting SIgurs
Intervention doesnt work !!!

In 2011 the Japanese authorities spend the largest amount ever, 14trillion Yen, in a desperate attempt to weaken the Yen. Now tell me, whats the result ?

Indeed, the Yen appreciated even further despite Boj actions against all major currency pairs. Imo, the above is verifiable proof of the fact that conventional intervention buys nothing but a few weeks time before the decline is back on track.

Current events still force investors to seek large safe havens. It seems that the Yen is one of the few left.

Appreciation...


they will do anything to defend it...another measurement is to buy euro bond.....(same like intervention) ......they probbly should do it....just to protect exporter from bankruptcy......even intervention do not solve the problem due to yen straighten because of ez crisis did not end yet....hehehe


and i agree with u....the yen should be weaken ...if EZ have come out with superb solution.....but when?huhuh....thats the question....hehe
Bismillah
  • #29,337
  • Dec 31, 2011 3:28am Dec 31, 2011 3:28am
Quoting SIgurs
Intervention doesnt work !!!

In 2011 the Japanese authorities spend the largest amount ever, 14trillion Yen, in a desperate attempt to weaken the Yen. Now tell me, whats the result ?

Indeed, the Yen appreciated even further despite Boj actions against all major currency pairs. Imo, the above is verifiable proof of the fact that conventional intervention buys nothing but a few weeks time before the decline is back on track.

Current events still force investors to seek large safe havens. It seems that the Yen is one of the few left.

Appreciation...
You could be right but it's not like they didn't do any interventions after previous ones failed. Why not this time?
Intervention's cost is high but will doing nothing be cheaper. Think that could be idea why BoJ kept doing them.
There was already one of Japan's manufacturer telling that they will move their factories elsewhere if things will be going like this. Unemployment and tax income that budget won't recieve at some point might cost even more then interventions.
Also UJ hit new low on Oct 31th... if BoJ wouldn't step in would UJ jump higher on it's own or would it slide even more, worsening the situation for Japan's exporters. Who knows.
But I believe that someone did calculations what the effect of lower UJ will be (in costs) before deciding how much they are willing to spend to prevent it and thought about risks doing nothing.

Lets save Japan from suffering in 2012
Happy Holidays everyone!
  • #29,338
  • Dec 31, 2011 3:31am Dec 31, 2011 3:31am
Not only UJ pairs dead,But this thread also slowly died
Glad to know that UJ "Thread" Slowly come back to live

Maybe a New sign that UJ come to live again? Lol
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #29,339
  • Edited 3:07pm Dec 31, 2011 2:42pm | Edited 3:07pm
I got tired and 77.92 and closed my long position with some profit.
At some point it became dangerous for me.
OMG, did i say 77.oo in my prev post ?
Oh, it will go lower.
I have no recommendation but to stay away from it for 3 mo...
The wisest i can give.

Demon, how low for 2012 ?
This can make a flash visit to the "basement" , just like EURCHF din in july/aug 2011, ruining some of us. But the revenge of the USD can be glorious if it pacts with other Commonwealth currencies and sincronize an attack. But WHEN will that happen ? Some micros in the BOJ would worth billions, lol.
Japan, definitelly - highly efficient, amazing. I'll forget about the yen for some months.
I'll shop after the drop
  • #29,340
  • Dec 31, 2011 4:52pm Dec 31, 2011 4:52pm
Quoting Willow
I got tired and 77.92 and closed my long position with some profit.
At some point it became dangerous for me.
OMG, did i say 77.oo in my prev post ?
Oh, it will go lower.
I have no recommendation but to stay away from it for 3 mo...
The wisest i can give.

Demon, how low for 2012 ?
This can make a flash visit to the "basement" , just like EURCHF din in july/aug 2011, ruining some of us. But the revenge of the USD can be glorious if it pacts with other Commonwealth currencies and sincronize an attack. But WHEN will that happen ? Some micros in...

lets wait azumi warning on the market soon.....should be more interesting
Bismillah
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