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EURUSD

  • #578,761
  • Dec 31, 2011 6:27am Dec 31, 2011 6:27am
  •  orzels
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Buy at resistance, Sell at support™ | 309 Posts
Happy New Year, NZD!
  • #578,762
  • Dec 31, 2011 7:15am Dec 31, 2011 7:15am
Happy new year , 2012 looks great
Melbourne 01-01-2012 0:15
Mohan
  • #578,763
  • Dec 31, 2011 8:08am Dec 31, 2011 8:08am
Quoting mohan76
Happy new year , 2012 looks great
Melbourne 01-01-2012 0:15
Already? Hey then Happy New Year
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #578,764
  • Dec 31, 2011 10:06am Dec 31, 2011 10:06am
Quoting KillerWhale
I don't have specific data but believe me most people here are idiots.
That has nothing to do with the fact that I am drunk at the moment.

Or does it?
I like this guy,he's quite funny..I'll follow his comments with interest from now on...
  • #578,765
  • Dec 31, 2011 4:05pm Dec 31, 2011 4:05pm
Happy New Year:

Inserted Video
!
Beauty awakens the soul to act. Dante Alighieri
  • #578,766
  • Dec 31, 2011 5:08pm Dec 31, 2011 5:08pm
Quoting krunfx
yen carry trade means....borrow yen becasue of its lower rate n buy the another bond(safe asset).......same like the situation when the stocks tumble.....JPY usually tend to strenghten.....thats call yen carry trade.....

u have ur own opinion...and this is my opinion..soryy if i make a mistake..hehe

aah sorry you are right, that is the YEN carry, Yup, borrow cheap money and invest in something that is of higher interest

buying all jpy pairs would give you carry, but when the unwind happens lookout!
  • #578,767
  • Dec 31, 2011 6:31pm Dec 31, 2011 6:31pm
Quoting sidhujag
aah sorry you are right, that is the YEN carry, Yup, borrow cheap money and invest in something that is of higher interest

buying all jpy pairs would give you carry, but when the unwind happens lookout!

carry trade unwinding happen at the around 125Y in 2007.....then pull down GY and Ej down sharply....hahhaa....

during that time im like to trade yen cross due high volatitlity at least 300-500 pips for GJ one day rahter than this time recently so slow....haha....i choose another curency like EUR DOllar coz of waiting another wave 3 rebound on the YEN croses to choose it back....hehehe.....about 1 year i waiting for that...haha
Bismillah
  • #578,768
  • Jan 1, 2012 1:08am Jan 1, 2012 1:08am
In the monthly chart, there is an asymmetric triangle. Based on the chart pattern, USDX may try to challenge the upper line of triangle. Besides, there is a strong resistance zone ahead to break.

In the weekly chart, USDX starts to penetrate one nearby resistance zone. It must successfully break this zone before it got a chance to break the resistance zone in the monthly chart.

In the daily chart, USDX is currently in uptrend channel. Looking at the bearish shadows, I think USDX needs more momentum to boost. It may go range for a short period for accumulation.


http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=837&h=380

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=837&h=380

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=837&h=380
  • #578,769
  • Jan 1, 2012 1:26am Jan 1, 2012 1:26am
An earthquake measuring 7.0 on the Richter scale has shaken eastern Japan but no tsunami warning were issued, the Meteorological Agency reports.
Trade responsiblypatience is the key/Swing trader
  • #578,770
  • Jan 1, 2012 3:29am Jan 1, 2012 3:29am
In the monthly chart, EUR/USD is in downtrend channel. Besides, this is also supported by the trend line fans which indicates loss of momentum of maintaining uptrend which is established since 2002. The current dynamic support is around 1.25-1.26 and the stable support is 1.23290.



http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=837&h=380


We can see the immediate support levels more clearly in the weekly chart. 1.28 – 1.3 is a support zone. Although EUR/USD closed below 1.3 (just 50 pips below 1.3), in my opinion, this doesn’t mean that 1.3 support already lost the ground.


http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=837&h=380


In the daily chart, I also spotted that 52 week low (1.2857) is acting as a support as well. I think that if EUR/USD breaks 1.2857, it will go direct to challenge 1.25 level.


http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=837&h=380
  • #578,771
  • Jan 1, 2012 4:30am Jan 1, 2012 4:30am
Quoting krunfx
Why u said like that?reason?
well another way to think about it is like this.. carry trade mean borrowing fund with a low cost to invest in the high return asset basically outside the country of origin.

Let say i'm the investor and i see that Japan is offering a quite low cost of fund (i.e the interest rate) and i know for a fact that i can make a money if i invested this fund outside Japan.

Then this is what i will do..

1) will borrowed some fund in Japan to invest it outside Japan

2) My borrowed fund which i had borrowed earlier in Japan is definitely denominated in Yen

3) Then will identify which county to invest which can give me higher rate than to my cost of fund.

4) let say i want to invest in the US (assuming that the US is offering a higher rate compared to Japan)

5) For me to be able to invest in the US, i would need the USD but what i have now is a fund denominated in Yen, so what should i do??

6) I need to convert my Yen to USD right and to do so, i would need to sell the Yen for the USD..

7) What would you think will happen to Yen after i has sold it for the USD..



Just my 2 cent.. correct me if i'm wrong, just throwing an idea..
  • #578,772
  • Jan 1, 2012 4:34am Jan 1, 2012 4:34am
Quoting from a report:

Globally, we expect de-synchronisation to persist in 2012. Mid-2011 fears of a globalrecession are now being replaced with hint of a speed-up for the US and an increasinglyrealised 'soft-landing' for China.

We expect the global economy to expand at a 3.5rate in 2012. Developed-market economies are expected to grow slowly on aconsolidated basis, while growth in the emerging markets should remain relativeresilient.

The euro area economy is in recession, and GDP is likely to fall in 2012E. The risk is that a weak economy feeds back into ever-worsening financial conditions. Cyclical indicators are now consistent with a slight drop in GDP.

We expect a contraction of -0.5% in 2012and a rise by 1.7% in 2013. We also now expect the ECB to cut rates to 0.75% by early next year.

Recovery will depend on an effective policy response. We think that the political will there to solve the crisis and keep the euro intact. In effect, that requires the ECB toembark on a program of large-scale asset purchases and euro area governments tmove to closer fiscal union
  • #578,773
  • Jan 1, 2012 4:41am Jan 1, 2012 4:41am
Quoting izzas
well another way to think about it is like this.. carry trade mean borrowing fund with a low cost to invest in the high return asset basically outside the country of origin.

Let say i'm the investor and i see that Japan is offering a quite low cost of fund (i.e the interest rate) and i know for a fact that i can make a money if i invested this fund outside Japan.

Then this is what i will do..

1) will borrowed some fund in Japan to invest it outside Japan

2) My borrowed fund which i had borrowed earlier in Japan is definitely denominated in Yen...
i do not think carry trader to invest in US since the diferent rate is very low.....i think they will favor in australian (since it is common curency i choose it..but many other nation have higher rate like brazil)....

actually USD is high yield curency..since FED cutted the rate till <0.25 it tend to be low yield and the status same like the yen.......in my oppinion FED should hike the rate to make the market normally move same like before....

and yen strengthen due to risk averse......but if i said like this..u also will said usd will strenght also due to risk averse......thats why since fed cutting rate till <0.25...the movement of DOllar YEN is slowly than before.....

n thats why i say fed muust hike rate to stabilize the market same like before....but....for now....fed still not signal any hawkish statement on this.....hehe..if i make a mistake please correct me...tq..hehe
Bismillah
  • #578,774
  • Jan 1, 2012 5:18am Jan 1, 2012 5:18am
Quoting LaMaschera
Happy New Year:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uruyF...yer_embedded#!
HAPPY NEW YEAR to you too ...

And to everybody who is ready to make a fresh start in 2012 ...




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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-12-30_23h15 - ZigZag + Pivot Survey _ EURUSD _ Rollover _ Y2012 va 1.PNG Size: 123 KB
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #578,775
  • Jan 1, 2012 5:24am Jan 1, 2012 5:24am
euro near a decade in the market

2-2-02 till 2-2-12..

will euro survive?

should be a ?????? marks!!!
Bismillah
  • #578,776
  • Jan 1, 2012 5:40am Jan 1, 2012 5:40am
Quoting mercy seat
HAPPY NEW YEAR to you too ...

And to everybody who is ready to make a fresh start in 2012 ...



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oVKdHAKtz0






;-|
I am ready mate:

Inserted Video
Beauty awakens the soul to act. Dante Alighieri
  • #578,777
  • Jan 1, 2012 6:29am Jan 1, 2012 6:29am
Quoting krunfx
i do not think carry trader to invest in US since the diferent rate is very low.....i think they will favor in australian (since it is common curency i choose it..but many other nation have higher rate like brazil)....

actually USD is high yield curency..since FED cutted the rate till <0.25 it tend to be low yield and the status same like the yen.......in my oppinion FED should hike the rate to make the market normally move same like before....

and yen strengthen due to risk averse......but if i said like this..u also will said usd will strenght...
They would think twice to hike the rates the fed i dont see them do that the bond market will tank on that and they would have a huge loss on there balance sheet.

But at the end it doest matter it will tank anyway china will dumb holding and do less purchases they already diverse a lot lately so thats a verry strong sign.
But he people like the kick cans in the economy thats how they roll so they probally not gonna hike and otherwise i wil short the fucked us bond market especially 2 years.

But whe have japan first this year new year
  • #578,778
  • Jan 1, 2012 6:30am Jan 1, 2012 6:30am
Quoting krunfx
euro near a decade in the market

2-2-02 till 2-2-12..

will euro survive?

should be a ?????? marks!!!
Life expectancy fiat currencies is 20 years
  • #578,779
  • Jan 1, 2012 6:32am Jan 1, 2012 6:32am
Quoting ingmarforex
They would think twice to hike the rates the fed i dont see them do that the bond market will tank on that and they would have a huge loss on there balance sheet.

But at the end it doest matter it will tank anyway china will dumb holding and do less purchases they already diverse a lot lately so thats a verry strong sign.
But he people like the kick cans in the economy thats how they roll so they probally not gonna hike and otherwise i wil short the fucked us bond market especially 2 years.

But whe have japan first this year new year
so u agree with my idea?hehe
Bismillah
  • #578,780
  • Jan 1, 2012 6:32am Jan 1, 2012 6:32am
Quoting ingmarforex
Life expectancy fiat currencies is 20 years

hahah...ok
Bismillah
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