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AUD/USD

  • #38,301
  • Dec 30, 2011 11:14am Dec 30, 2011 11:14am
Hi all, hope you guys managed to catch the bull train while it last.

As we all know, the market tends to repeat itself at a certain point and based on what i see, AUD had a good run towards the last 10 days before the year ends and then it will slide back down in the next 10 days or so.

Will the patterns repeats itself?

I will be looking closely on my fib levels if it does reverses back down.

For now, enjoy the greens and dont be greedy hahaha ... Take care and happy weekends ahead...
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  • #38,302
  • Dec 30, 2011 11:19am Dec 30, 2011 11:19am
Quoting rustyram
I am going to ride the AUD train, till EUR/USD hits 1.3030.

From the current levels EUR has to travel 50 pips north, may be in the mean AUD will shoot 75- 100 pips...or even 150 pips only Kangaroo knows....
made a lower low on 1 min, so time to get out...looks like it is going to retrace...

Entered at 1.0055 exit at 1.0240

Happy new year everybody...
PPP - Patience Pays PIPS
  • #38,303
  • Dec 30, 2011 12:55pm Dec 30, 2011 12:55pm
Quoting auyong
I am in the same postion as reteamgo minus any good trade. Everything is red. I have been trading for two months and things are not great. I am wondering if anyone can help. Do you thing I should hold if I have the money to ride the wave? Do you think that in few days, week this pair will be bearish? Thanks
u didnt get out did u? now look where u are lol
  • #38,304
  • Dec 30, 2011 1:14pm Dec 30, 2011 1:14pm
Quoting auyong
I am in the same postion as reteamgo minus any good trade. Everything is red. I have been trading for two months and things are not great. I am wondering if anyone can help. Do you thing I should hold if I have the money to ride the wave? Do you think that in few days, week this pair will be bearish? Thanks
well, it is had to say where is the pair heading , but by looking at current juncture, i bias is no longer bearish, but in to confirm next year..

my advice.. before you enter the market, please do figure out of how much you're willing to risk if the market goes against you...and if it does, don't hesitate to get out.. dont worry a loss today doesn't mean that you're going to lose forever..

on separate note, to me and to all the newbies, please check out the longer time frame to trade and to the analysis, as i see it more accurate , in fact, i trade using H4 TF and it work well..

Just my 2 cent, my opinion may differ from other fellow traders but yeah..everyone trade with the system that suitable to them soo there is no right or wrong answer here.. am i right?
  • #38,305
  • Dec 30, 2011 1:35pm Dec 30, 2011 1:35pm
it is worth noting that AUD/JPY stalled at 79, forming an imperfect double top, usd/jpy broke 77 to the downside, eur/jpy is under 100, & gold is making lower highs (for now!) . eur/usd was capped at 3000 in the context of a firm rejection at 38.2%. i.e., "safety" currencies are strong at year end.

how all this adds up? not quite sure but it doesnt make sense to me in the context of a 2.2% AUD increase since the 29th. maybe this was real money hedging future growth of gold. maybe institutions are taking advantage of the superior interest rates at YE2011..
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #38,306
  • Dec 30, 2011 3:24pm Dec 30, 2011 3:24pm
Quoting england33
Looks at last move higher on the chart ... just glad I'm not short. the wise man sat on the sideline. the unlucky one went short and the lucky one went long. I'm just glad i'm not the unlucky one.

[edit] There is a confluence of various things on my charts that would persuade me not to be short ATM. Because of the choppiness I don't want to be long either.
Based on your analytic decision to stay out I would not call it luck. It seems to me you are experienced and disciplined, you are not lucky or unlucky - you are decisive.

Here are a few things to ponder for the weekend and before next year:

Here is the Dollar index. The Dollar is back to demand where the buying started on Wednesday. If Dollar gains buying momentum there could be some great shorting opportunity on this pair.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1325278849

As for levels, my fibs for recent moves.

..
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  • #38,307
  • Dec 31, 2011 4:41am Dec 31, 2011 4:41am
Aud usd 15 Min
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  • #38,308
  • Jan 2, 2012 2:03am Jan 2, 2012 2:03am
Quoting salman14
Aud usd 15 Min
Sorry , Typing Mistake................... RSI over bought
  • #38,309
  • Jan 2, 2012 2:49am Jan 2, 2012 2:49am
Salman: Agreed...obvious cont pattern...confirmed with MACD pullback to zero/bullish candle on 1hr in 21 MA area with a pivot...should be at least 2 more impulses..


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  • #38,310
  • Jan 2, 2012 5:03am Jan 2, 2012 5:03am
Sl was 15 pips, It was a nice entry : 60 green pips.
  • #38,311
  • Jan 2, 2012 4:10pm Jan 2, 2012 4:10pm
Happy New Year !

AUD/USD @ 1.0235

Today expect AUD/USD to be contained whilst all eyes focus on the cricket

Range 1.0180 - 1.0280

EUR/AUD @ 1.2635

Target 1.25 still as we ratchet lower..

Will we see another parity party for the AUD in 2012? ... this time with our European friends? .. Im making the call first and go yup !!

Best of luck for 2012
  • #38,312
  • Jan 2, 2012 4:56pm Jan 2, 2012 4:56pm
I see AUDUSD has broken a mid term triangle channel to the upside.
Couple that with positive US Employment foresight, plus higher earnings, Equity with rally bringing risk currencies to the upside again this is my mid term outlook.

I am looking to buy perhaps @ 1.0150~1.0180 for a 1.0300

I agree lasty that EURAUD is heavy. EUR will not be following Equity but will sink as ECB would be forced to lower rate and start the presses to fight debt crisis with cheap money. They should realize it by now, BRICS isnt going to buy them out; they have to buy themselves out of the hole.
  • #38,313
  • Jan 2, 2012 5:19pm Jan 2, 2012 5:19pm
Buy any dip
Looking at 1.04
  • #38,314
  • Jan 2, 2012 5:48pm Jan 2, 2012 5:48pm
Hello
Been in sell at 1.02200 an 1.02400
I will hold them an hedged at 1.0250
Need think about what to do nexted,pretty sure it will retrace enough to close them out.
  • #38,315
  • Jan 2, 2012 5:51pm Jan 2, 2012 5:51pm
Quoting eliteincome
Hello
Been in sell at 1.02200 an 1.02400
I will hold them an hedged at 1.0250
Need think about what to do nexted,pretty sure it will retrace enough to close them out.
if it breaks out I doubt it will retrace for you to BE
  • #38,316
  • Jan 2, 2012 5:51pm Jan 2, 2012 5:51pm
am thinking a short around 1.0290-1.0310 is the odds.

will wait for confirmation first.

very much doubt 1.04 in current economic climate
  • #38,317
  • Jan 2, 2012 6:01pm Jan 2, 2012 6:01pm
around 1.046 is the wedge barrier from the weekly chart... might be a good place to short again, if the upmove continues for some days
  • #38,318
  • Jan 2, 2012 6:19pm Jan 2, 2012 6:19pm
Quoting Halba
am thinking a short around 1.0290-1.0310 is the odds.

will wait for confirmation first.

very much doubt 1.04 in current economic climate
too many retailers thinking short, this is what will fuel it more for short squeeze. Plus it is giving big boys interest to hold. I think it can go to 1.10 easily.
  • #38,319
  • Jan 2, 2012 6:23pm Jan 2, 2012 6:23pm
AUDUSD longs are a go!! holdem
Quoting eliteincome
Hello
Been in sell at 1.02200 an 1.02400
I will hold them an hedged at 1.0250
Need think about what to do nexted,pretty sure it will retrace enough to close them out.
  • #38,320
  • Jan 2, 2012 6:24pm Jan 2, 2012 6:24pm
squeeze is on, look for a big pop during NY
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