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AUD/USD

  • #38,281
  • Dec 30, 2011 5:10am Dec 30, 2011 5:10am
Quoting @40
God only knows . I think we are going down in the near future and trade it this way
There's a few reasons why it could go up, but I just don't feel comfortable with it right now. If you think gold is going up though........well Aussie MAY follow, we'll see..........
  • #38,282
  • Edited 5:35am Dec 30, 2011 5:14am | Edited 5:35am
Quoting auyong
Why do you stop trading on Dec 21? Any thoughts on this pair? Are there good online courses that I can learn how to trade better/
No offense but if you have to ask you shouldn't be trading forex.

You will get your account blown up - guaranteed. The best thing to do is just google terms that have to do with trading like "broadening formations" "technical analysis" ect and other trading terms. babypips.com I think is where alot of people here have gotten an education but just googling trading terms and putting time into it will help more than anything. Visits thousands of sites not just 1 or 2.

You are going into the most competetive field on earth and you will get your head chopped off if your not prepared. Even the best minds get their head handed to them in the money world - I don't care if your a Dr, Scholar, served in the special forces or mathematician or even donald trumph or bill gates himself you still are going into a battle that is not favorable for you to win.

You should first ask do you want to commit the time required to do this and be prepared that no ammount of time invested garentees success or for you to develop the mentality required. Everyone thinks their tough - but this is a different kind of tough.

Now take this with a grain of salt and if you want to believe those that tell you it's easy money go right ahead but don't come back crying a week or a month later that your acount blew up because you were unprepaired. I've seen it a 1000 times and have gone through it my self. For some it's actually part of the learning process but for most it's their last venture in forex and the money world.
Good luck
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #38,283
  • Dec 30, 2011 5:19am Dec 30, 2011 5:19am
Anyone looking at this?

..
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  • #38,284
  • Dec 30, 2011 5:23am Dec 30, 2011 5:23am
Quoting @40
You will miss the action! At this time of the year could be big
If I jumped in on a short I would be in the red. Look there's still risk taking going on. I'm not looking for action - I'm looking for the sure thing.

Patients if a virtue and timing is all that matters. If I'm wrong there will be another chance.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #38,285
  • Dec 30, 2011 5:27am Dec 30, 2011 5:27am
Quoting england33
I'm looking for the sure thing.
What are you looking for? Price action conformation?
  • #38,286
  • Dec 30, 2011 5:28am Dec 30, 2011 5:28am
Quoting Tyoon
Anyone looking at this?

..
I am now. Thanks for pointing that out. I can see the consolidation extending back even more too.
  • #38,287
  • Dec 30, 2011 5:34am Dec 30, 2011 5:34am
Quoting Vilkezar
I am now. Thanks for pointing that out. I can see the consolidation extending back even more too.
I'm watching it. Dollar index is at some pivotal support.
  • #38,288
  • Dec 30, 2011 5:37am Dec 30, 2011 5:37am
Quoting Tyoon
Anyone looking at this?

..
I don't have my charts open at the moment, but if you back out and look at the Daily you will also see the higher triangle top coming in around the 1.05 level. if this current squeeze gets broken then that is the next target. something to think about. gl/gt
  • #38,289
  • Edited 6:15am Dec 30, 2011 5:43am | Edited 6:15am
Quoting lolygagv2
Where is aussie going? These flows are really interesting.....up to 1.02 now?
last year December 31 i had same doubt market said it's un stoppable (end up with 1.0255), it was above all time record, and i was under water
Mohan
  • #38,290
  • Dec 30, 2011 5:47am Dec 30, 2011 5:47am
Quoting ZenTrading
I don't have my charts open at the moment, but if you back out and look at the Daily you will also see the higher triangle top coming in around the 1.05 level. if this current squeeze gets broken then that is the next target. something to think about. gl/gt
This what you meant?

My bias is that price goes back into the triangle. Possibly breakout the other side.

..
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  • #38,291
  • Dec 30, 2011 5:59am Dec 30, 2011 5:59am
Quoting Tyoon
This what you meant?

My bias is that price goes back into the triangle. Possibly breakout the other side.

..
sorry should have posted chart with thoughts. it is much more helpful. this is the one I am looking at and though nothing set in stone it does assist in position sizing at this current triangle within the larger triangle. hope this is more clear.
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  • #38,292
  • Dec 30, 2011 6:07am Dec 30, 2011 6:07am
Quoting ZenTrading
sorry should have posted chart with thoughts. it is much more helpful. this is the one I am looking at and though nothing set in stone it does assist in position sizing at this current triangle within the larger triangle. hope this is more clear.
I see, thanks I hadn't thought of that.
  • #38,293
  • Dec 30, 2011 6:43am Dec 30, 2011 6:43am
Extension connecting 10/27 highs @ 1.07ish and previous high at 1.03 from 12/8 seems likely to be broken. however, US Stock indices are ticking lower right now on the final day of US trading and gold has dropped $10 in the past 2h.

AUD has been inching higher all night. there is an 1.02 option expiry at 10am as well as reported offers at 1.02 (as per IFR via oanda). a close below previous highs at 1.0204 would add downside pressure but would still break the TL previously mentioned. the way I see it, there is real risk for a break to the upside to retest supply at 1.035/1.038 which has been a pivotal consolidation zone in the past 3 months.

crystal ball speculation: short term break of the AUD risk correlation with a move higher to test 1.03 ranges followed by a fall to parity in Q1. i am not so much bearish on AUD as much as i am bullish on the dollar as a safe haven in terms of a run for security as BRIC contracts and EZ worsens in 1/2Q12

this is a nail biter. g/l to all in the new year.. 2.25 hours to go.
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Any prices quoted are futures
  • #38,294
  • Dec 30, 2011 6:47am Dec 30, 2011 6:47am
Quoting redteamgo
Extension connecting 10/27 highs @ 1.07ish and previous high at 1.03 from 12/8 seems likely to be broken. however, US Stock indices are ticking lower right now on the final day of US trading and gold has dropped $10 in the past 2h.

AUD has been inching higher all night. there is an 1.02 option expiry at 10am as well as reported offers at 1.02 (as per IFR via oanda). a close below previous highs at 1.0204 would add downside pressure but would still break the TL previously mentioned. the way I see it, there is real risk for a break to the upside...
Brilliant analysis red.
  • #38,295
  • Dec 30, 2011 6:56am Dec 30, 2011 6:56am
Hope you all have a good weekend and we shall see what the new year brings us!!
  • #38,296
  • Dec 30, 2011 7:47am Dec 30, 2011 7:47am
Quoting Tyoon
Brilliant analysis red.
thank you much!

---

i'm out at 1.0215. annoyed but i feel clear headed now that im out. looking to buy dips in 2012 at or around hourly support 1.015/75. im done for the day

of course, i will simply cry if it caps where i exited.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #38,297
  • Dec 30, 2011 7:53am Dec 30, 2011 7:53am
Out of 3 ladies this prefered singal one doing most notriously & still continues non-stop . anyway even breaks up for some over 1.0219 still will expect down . let the crazy end first .eu continues up & gu apparently stalled . so watching for good time next .

fontu
Attached Image
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #38,298
  • Edited 8:26am Dec 30, 2011 8:09am | Edited 8:26am
Quoting Tyoon
What are you looking for? Price action conformation?
Looks at last move higher on the chart ... just glad I'm not short. the wise man sat on the sideline. the unlucky one went short and the lucky one went long. I'm just glad i'm not the unlucky one.

[edit] There is a confluence of various things on my charts that would persuade me not to be short ATM. Because of the choppiness I don't want to be long either. I also want to see if price action could break through 1.0200. it has done so in convincing fashion. On the 1hr E-U there was what resembled a reverse H&S - it has broke out of the neckline. I would dare not want to short that. 30 more minutes for hourly close.. i will see what happens.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #38,299
  • Dec 30, 2011 8:19am Dec 30, 2011 8:19am
i'm glad that i closed my short and went long.
  • #38,300
  • Dec 30, 2011 8:23am Dec 30, 2011 8:23am
I am going to ride the AUD train, till EUR/USD hits 1.3030.

From the current levels EUR has to travel 50 pips north, may be in the mean AUD will shoot 75- 100 pips...or even 150 pips only Kangaroo knows....
PPP - Patience Pays PIPS
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