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EURUSD

  • #578,741
  • Dec 30, 2011 12:15pm Dec 30, 2011 12:15pm
EUR/JPY headed further south regardless of EUR/USD.
  • #578,742
  • Dec 30, 2011 12:17pm Dec 30, 2011 12:17pm
Quoting 21vs7
ok managing those piggies!

all on BE 92

we neeed her to solve 63 now...to move one leg down.

closed all piggies
  • #578,743
  • Dec 30, 2011 12:19pm Dec 30, 2011 12:19pm
It seems the volume on the up moves has all but dried up for the EUR/USD

Distribution will likely come soon as we move towards the end of day and year it would seem, but you never know.
  • #578,744
  • Dec 30, 2011 12:27pm Dec 30, 2011 12:27pm
Quoting Deadpoet87
Its pretty obvious that the bears are slowly recovering ground at the moment. I just hope its not a retracement for EUR to do a corrective recovery.

Do you plan to close by this session?
me? no, I will close when the price touch my take-profit or stop-loss.
  • #578,745
  • Dec 30, 2011 12:30pm Dec 30, 2011 12:30pm
Quoting kibescorp
EUR/JPY headed further south regardless of EUR/USD.
That the problem. People are no longer buying Dollar. Instead the put their attention on the Yen and Aud. I know that the Aud is a safe haven like the USD now, but why the Yen. People should realise how dangerous its to play with the Yen. A stronger yen is very bad for Japan economy just like for Swiss. Somehow, the BoJ will be for to act upon the strong Yen.
  • #578,746
  • Dec 30, 2011 12:44pm Dec 30, 2011 12:44pm
SElling EURUSD @ 1.2960-Stop 1.2990-Limit 1.2902,1.2848--Market has broken Trend and 21SMA Again
  • #578,747
  • Dec 30, 2011 12:47pm Dec 30, 2011 12:47pm
Quoting todstars2
It seems the volume on the up moves has all but dried up for the EUR/USD

Distribution will likely come soon as we move towards the end of day and year it would seem, but you never know.
eu is undervalued by few hundred pips noobs keep shorting bigtime trying to pick tops. au gained the most you can buy those dips
  • #578,748
  • Dec 30, 2011 1:12pm Dec 30, 2011 1:12pm
1.2945
  • #578,749
  • Dec 30, 2011 1:50pm Dec 30, 2011 1:50pm
1.2945


decision time...
  • #578,750
  • Dec 30, 2011 2:04pm Dec 30, 2011 2:04pm
Can u see next week Eur/Usd 1.3030? Eur/Yen 105 or 109?
" you can't consume more than you produce "
  • #578,751
  • Dec 30, 2011 2:36pm Dec 30, 2011 2:36pm
Quoting Memnonxxi
Can u see next week Eur/Usd 1.3030? Eur/Yen 105 or 109?
Wait till next week..... see how it opens and rumors and junk over the weekend before you make a decision today.
  • #578,752
  • Dec 30, 2011 2:53pm Dec 30, 2011 2:53pm
Happy New Year to everyone!

Have a safe one...
  • #578,753
  • Dec 30, 2011 4:27pm Dec 30, 2011 4:27pm
Quoting todstars2
Happy New Year to everyone!

Have a safe one...
Happy New Years
  • #578,754
  • Dec 30, 2011 6:13pm Dec 30, 2011 6:13pm
Just for a bit of feel, Happy New Year:

The euro wilted again on the final trading day of 2011, falling to a 10-year low against the yen. AUD and JPY were the best performers on the day; EUR was the worst. The CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed the net short at a fresh record.

The focus was on the Spanish government Friday as they unveiled plans to cut 8.9B euros of spending. Officials also revised deficit estimates higher -- to 8% of GDP from 6% -- in what has become a familiar PIIGS occurrence.

Heading into the new year, the deficit miss was a reminder of the impossible position facing several eurozone countries. They must cut deficits but cant afford the slowdown in growth from cutting spending.

EUR/JPY broke below 100.00 for the first time in 10 years and closed at the daily low of 99.50. EUR/USD fared better, climbing to 1.2999 on a spurt of buying at the London fix only to slip back to 1.2948 at the close.

Flows and positioning were clearly a factor as accounts were shuffled at year-end. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to close at 1257 precisely the same level where it opened the year.

CFTC COT Report

Non-commercial traders continued to buy US dollars in the report for the week ending Dec 27. The net USD position grew to +$20.35B from +$17.65B a week earlier. The bulk of the gains were against the euro as it fell to a record -128K from -114K last week. Other changes:

JPY -2K to +22.6K

GBP -3K to -29.1K

CAD +5K to -21.8K

AUD +7 to +37.2K

NZD +1K to +1.4K
Beauty awakens the soul to act. Dante Alighieri
  • #578,755
  • Dec 30, 2011 7:32pm Dec 30, 2011 7:32pm
Quoting Link
That the problem. People are no longer buying Dollar. Instead the put their attention on the Yen and Aud. I know that the Aud is a safe haven like the USD now, but why the Yen. People should realise how dangerous its to play with the Yen. A stronger yen is very bad for Japan economy just like for Swiss. Somehow, the BoJ will be for to act upon the strong Yen.
because of YEN CARRY trade..
Bismillah
  • #578,756
  • Dec 30, 2011 11:19pm Dec 30, 2011 11:19pm
Quoting krunfx
because of YEN CARRY trade..
umm you don't buy the yen to benefit from a carry trade, japans interest rate is less than 0.25%. You misunderstood what he was saying or you don't understand carry trade, please read: http://www.fxwords.com/c/carry-trade.html.

Yen is used as a safe haven because of Japan's link to US debt. Therefor it will rise sometimes more than USD during risk off times. However USD will also rise on risk on because there are no alternatives since the China bubble is set to burst NZD/AUD will be negative, CAD relies on oil so it may be ok and GBP will benefit from EUR troubles.

EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY etc will fall until a policy shift or big intervention. This is because retailers will keep feeding stop losses to big players, retailers are long. Also because JPY is a safe haven.

AUD is the best bet right now for carry trade.
  • #578,757
  • Dec 30, 2011 11:37pm Dec 30, 2011 11:37pm
Quoting Link
That the problem. People are no longer buying Dollar. Instead the put their attention on the Yen and Aud. I know that the Aud is a safe haven like the USD now, but why the Yen. People should realise how dangerous its to play with the Yen. A stronger yen is very bad for Japan economy just like for Swiss. Somehow, the BoJ will be for to act upon the strong Yen.
I should add that "people" in general are short the yen, to not only benefit from the carry but also because they feel they have intervention on their side, however the criminals who control the market are against you to take ur SL so they will always short. Japan usually gives a few warnings, and a few warning shots before intervention anyways, and this will drive price to ap oint where retail longs are all but gone before positioning themselves for intervention. Big boys will always benefit both ways, while retailers will lose both ways, thats the design.

Didn't you hear about rogue traders who lost billions because of CHF intervention? That's because CHF doesn't give warnings, it just does. So a few big players got caught with the ball and blew up. That's good and always keeps CHF stable, look at how long it kept its limit. It looks like a good buy right now too.

Thing is when retailers start to long EUR/CHF the big players who can see the state of the entire market may find it lucrative to go in and kill your position depending on the cluster of stops. However he/she may have to act around times when intervention is unlikely.

Here is the hint to trade this pair: you can safely long when CHF is likely to intervene (thin liquidity) and big players are likely to short thsi pair other times to try to get you out. However swiss are not stupid either and I feel that many big players will get f'ed up... Ithink the next big intervention won't come under low liquidity, it will come during NY to try to punish wallstreet/london big hot shots. It will probably not raise limit by a little, maybe up to 1.5, and if the big players try to short they will get crushed because central bank always wins. They will do it until noone will touch CHF for a long long time.
  • #578,758
  • Dec 31, 2011 1:51am Dec 31, 2011 1:51am
Quoting sidhujag
I should add that "people" in general are short the yen, to not only benefit from the carry but also because they feel they have intervention on their side, however the criminals who control the market are against you to take ur SL so they will always short. Japan usually gives a few warnings, and a few warning shots before intervention anyways, and this will drive price to ap oint where retail longs are all but gone before positioning themselves for intervention. Big boys will always benefit both ways, while retailers will lose both ways, thats...
chf pairs right now , let they intervene at any level down or withdraw previous intervention !! eat the own shit ! who knows !!
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...29#post5258029
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #578,759
  • Dec 31, 2011 1:58am Dec 31, 2011 1:58am
Quoting sidhujag
umm you don't buy the yen to benefit from a carry trade, japans interest rate is less than 0.25%. You misunderstood what he was saying or you don't understand carry trade, please read: http://www.fxwords.com/c/carry-trade.html.

Yen is used as a safe haven because of Japan's link to US debt. Therefor it will rise sometimes more than USD during risk off times. However USD will also rise on risk on because there are no alternatives since the China bubble is set to burst NZD/AUD will be negative, CAD relies on oil so it may be ok and GBP...
yen carry trade means....borrow yen becasue of its lower rate n buy the another bond(safe asset).......same like the situation when the stocks tumble.....JPY usually tend to strenghten.....thats call yen carry trade.....

u have ur own opinion...and this is my opinion..soryy if i make a mistake..hehe
Bismillah
  • #578,760
  • Dec 31, 2011 3:42am Dec 31, 2011 3:42am
Cleaning out all pending shit to start a fresh new year.
Profit this week due to this = A WHOPPING 0.57% GAIN ON NAV




Bias for EU next year: first up (a bit), then down.

Next target 1.2587
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