Sonic R. System

My comments,

Regards,
Hans

UChf:

It will be interesting for me to see what the BBs do with this one, with one last day this month, tomorrow. PA appears to be repetitively coaxed up, as though to hold it up while the BBs load up,.....for the New Year drop.

This is speculation. To me, the PA on a lot of pairs looks to be driven hard, not for any of the "reasons" given by talking heads, but for no reason other than planned profits. In other words, the BBs have driven pairs hard and opposite to where they are planning to drive them when the New Year starts. The drives this week have been to get the prices to where the BBs could load up in advance of the New Year planned moves.

In any case, I am looking for a pull back upwards, maybe in the next asian session, for a possible short entry nearer to the original EP area.

I've not been trading the last two weeks but this is what I'm looking at on EU. I'd want to see a re-test of support and resistance level before taking a long trade, we've not been this low since Jan 10th this year.

AU:

I received a PM regarding this one and am answering it here for the benefit of all Sonikers.
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The PM:

"Hi traderathome, your prediction of the AUSUSD behaviour was very impressive

Were there any other special clues, except the resistance at around 1.01 and support at 1.005, which made you think the market would behave that way or was it mainly luck?

My guess would have been that the support of 1.005 would fail and we would continue our down trend.

Thanks!" -

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My reply:

I guess three things contributed:

1. I've had the growing suspicion, as I have posted (and highly speculative, too), that since so many pairs were being driven hard up, or down, the BBs were not reacting to any "news" or "fears" as the "talking heads" would have us believe, but instead were simply taking advantage of the low volume holidays to severly manipulate prices opposite to where they "know" they are next going in the New Year.

2. More often than not, if the asian session strikes a price high or low, the euro session BBs will do the same. I guess the philosophy of "one upmanship" is at work. The euro BBs feel if the asian BBs are going to manipulate the price for a good grab before things sail off in the other direction, then so too will the euro BBs,.....and sometimes the US BBs will do it a third time!

In other words, anytime the price has been pushed to new highs or lows, look for the BBs thru each of the separate sessions to try and milk the cow as best as they can. They want to unload whatever they have, and buy new whatever will be needed. It can take multiple trips to the well to be able to do that, since the BBs need that time to sucker enough others into the wrong side positions for them to off-load and reload.

3. More times than not, when PA is making a reversal, you will actually see the Dragon make two curves, ......two bumps at the top, or two dips at the bottom. They won't necessarily be both at the same level (seldom are), but I look at it as the Dragon (lagging PA) confirming the reversal. If you look at AU PA moving up in the last US session, you will see that PA moved right up thru the Dagon as the Dragon made the second dip. I remained wary until that second dip appeared. If the bumps are too far apart in level and continuing either higher or lower such that you are not sure if you have a "second confirming bump", you might wait for the "second confirming bump" to be of the opposite, i.e., higher if the previous have been lower, or lower, if the previous have been higher.

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The first chart below is the one originally posted to which the PM refers to. The second chart is current, showing the two dips in the Dragon, and that the anticipated pullback was severe.

-tah

GU:

Might see yet another pullback, however, PA has come to central GMT pivot and so things are looking more bullish now. Another asian/FO/LO pullback could actually be confirming of the bullish sentiment. Based on daily range, the FE 200% level is a nice looking target area. A preliminary Sonic R. EP zone is determined, but a pullback could change things and create a lower EP opportunity.

Because we have a ways to go before the last London session of the year, all is preliminary regarding this bullish setup. If a bull run does happen in this last session of the year, it could take out the range high mark and "go for broke". That would "lock out the shorts" for any planned runs to new highs in the New Year. (You never know. You can't trust the BBs to be nice, not even over the Holidays.)

Stevepatt, what you suggest makes a lot of sense. And, though your charts are very hard to read, it looks like the area you refer to is the same as the GMT central pivot area for this last trading day of the year. Currently, PA is only about 25 pips above, so it is not unreasonable to believe that the BBs might execute a pullback down to the central pivot area. Heck, the whole number is less than 25 pips below that, and the BBs might go all the way to there! There is no telling. But waiting for some kind of "confirming" pullback makes sense, and would also possibly create a confirming higher dip in the Dragon.

The "fly in the ointment" is something speculative, that maybe the BBs have already loaded the cheque with buys to lock out shorts,...to keep the price from going much lower now. Dropping the price back to the central pivot area you point to might not interfere with their blocking action of buy orders (if indeed they have done this at all). It is, in my mind, a question of "Have the BBs done this?", and if they have then how low might they take the price without interfering,.....without letting the shorts "off the hook" at a low price?

Thanks for the explanation Frank.

As usual interested in comments on possible setup. Still 2 hrs till LO, a lot of time to think...

Looks pretty good bouncing his leg #3 of the DPV... But for me it'd be better if there is another leg with pullback to 1.295

what about short,Im looking for short setup

After PA failed to break up and stay above 1.295 it looks like your scenario is more realistic.

EU:

I have been waiting to see if the FO would start a pullback. The asian session has pulled price down to SR area, and that might be it,.....up from here. PA has hardly gotten out of the gate from the initial drive up. There is a lot more to go. If FO/LO doesn't pull this back down, I am going to become even more convinced the BBs have set the cheque with lots of buy orders to keep the price from steeply falling, and to "lock in" those unfortunates that have gone short.

EU:

The longer before the price pops up, the longer the BBs have to take advantage of the price. Getting rid of shorts, and going long takes awhile,......gotta find the suckers to take the crap off your hands before you ram the price north!!!!!

(Ops, better be sure the disclaimer is in,..........SPECULATION! )

GU:

Now a SonicR long setup.

EU:

Ok, here we go. The BBs are starting the pullback. Let's see how it goes.

Edit: Second chart, not much of a pullback. Been couple of TFs and price not changed much at all, not even down to the SR level that the asian trading took it to. However, the volume has picked up, so something is going to happen. I guess we are in for more waiting.....

EU:

Hope Hansma is watching this. PA pulled back to test the HL of the original wave. I've set entry per chart. Multiple TPs shown. I guess prime are FE 113 and FE 162. Very high volume on the pullback, possibly stopping volume.

UChf:

For those watching this one, note that PA pulled back to retest the original EP zone. There was high volume on that test, so it looks like the BBs are loading up shorts. Once PA breaks below previous lows, there is still good room for pips down to the range low mark. Might be worth keeping an eye on.

I wonder:
all the time all of you speak about Volume
and draw SWINGS
my Question is:
why you did not count Swing Volume - in this case
you will see -will it be valid BreakOut or not...

Hello Stevepatt.

Could you give us more detail on what you describe as a "price box" ?

Thanks!

I always look to trade with momentum on my side, EU had three bearish momentum bars earlier it has taken sixteen bullish bars to claim back two bearish bars. I wouldn't look to go long until I saw some bullish momentum taking over.

i have put Support (Demand) and Resistance (Supply) levels on my charts the magenta line is a weekly level. As I stated in my last post I like to see momentum going with me before entering a trade I'd want to see momentum (Impulse) breaking through this level and then a much slower (Corrective) test of this area before going long.