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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #16,861
  • Dec 29, 2011 10:00am Dec 29, 2011 10:00am
Quoting @40
Wow, I think it's time to change the currency of my famyly's assets from EUR to ... what? May be Swiss Franks?

At lest I hedged these assets with my forec broker, but the euro did't stop faling!
swiss franc a lil bit prob amid speculation SNB will use negetive rate to weaken chf.....u choose which one is the best.....
Bismillah
  • #16,862
  • Dec 29, 2011 10:21am Dec 29, 2011 10:21am
Quoting Tyoon
I have been investigating the drop of yesterday. Been looking at the currencies (not the pairs) and it seems it was more to do with the dollar than the euro in EURUSD.

Looking at these charts it looks like there was a huge amount of buying of dollars and yen and a selling of pound.

If you think I am incorrect please share you view.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1325172880
my view - live yesterday - was that Cable was being sold early in US trading - see the lower high at 13:14 GMT at the 3075 level and an hour later the Euro and Swissy joined the party with a wide ranged bar at 14:19 GMT in each.....Cable promptly dropped 100 pips in half an hour....I was late in as I'm still in holiday mode, but I pirated a few pips out of the moves http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #16,863
  • Dec 29, 2011 10:31am Dec 29, 2011 10:31am
Watching the third red lines
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #16,864
  • Edited Dec 30, 2011 1:55am Dec 29, 2011 10:35am | Edited Dec 30, 2011 1:55am
Quoting Islander
my view - live yesterday - was that Cable was being sold early in US trading - see the lower high at 13:14 GMT at the 3075 level and an hour later the Euro and Swissy joined the party with a wide ranged bar at 14:19 GMT in each.....Cable promptly dropped 100 pips in half an hour....I was late in as I'm still in holiday mode, but I pirated a few pips out of the moves http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif
Yeah, yesterday me and redteamgo were wondering why GBP sold off before EURUSD and equities. I think equities (dow) was the catalyst for the dollar strength. I watched that double top bear flag on dow... from there risk is off baby.

EDIT: where is says EUR on the line chart, I meant USD.
..
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  • #16,865
  • Dec 29, 2011 12:58pm Dec 29, 2011 12:58pm
Quoting Islander
my view - live yesterday - was that Cable was being sold early in US trading - see the lower high at 13:14 GMT at the 3075 level and an hour later the Euro and Swissy joined the party with a wide ranged bar at 14:19 GMT in each.....Cable promptly dropped 100 pips in half an hour....I was late in as I'm still in holiday mode, but I pirated a few pips out of the moves http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif
That's pretty much my opinion. GBP led the move down selling off against all the majors.

I'm still trying to figure out if it was year end flows, Funds doing some "window dressing" and moving into US bonds, Britain doing more QE or .......

The correct answer is probably "all of the above" LOL
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #16,866
  • Dec 29, 2011 12:59pm Dec 29, 2011 12:59pm
Quoting PipKiller
That's pretty much my opinion. GBP led the move down selling off against all the majors.

I'm still trying to figure out if it was year end flows, Funds doing some "window dressing" and moving into US bonds, Britain doing more QE or .......

The correct answer is probably "all of the above" LOL
bloomberg was talking about this exact topic a few minutes ago and that was their consensus
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #16,867
  • Dec 29, 2011 1:15pm Dec 29, 2011 1:15pm
Quoting Tyoon
I have been investigating the drop of yesterday. Been looking at the currencies (not the pairs) and it seems it was more to do with the dollar than the euro in EURUSD.

Looking at these charts it looks like there was a huge amount of buying of dollars and yen and a selling of pound.

If you think I am incorrect please share you view.

charts
this is very interesting thanks for putting that together!
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #16,868
  • Dec 29, 2011 1:46pm Dec 29, 2011 1:46pm
http://b1112.hizliresim.com/s/x/1fzzy.png
  • #16,869
  • Dec 29, 2011 1:55pm Dec 29, 2011 1:55pm
Quoting redteamgo
bloomberg was talking about this exact topic a few minutes ago and that was their consensus
I guess I need to call them and tell them to pay up for stealing my research because I was calling that yesterday.

Quote
Now that I've had a nap and had my dinner I can focus a little better to try to figure out where the money was moving.

It was definatly dumping of the British Pound that shook up the markets and dragged the Euro down with it. The news is all over the euro down and the US markets falling today buy I ain't buying their BS, it's clearly a GBP and USD move IMHO.... And the S&P500 had been up for the previous 5 sessions in a row so a little pull back after a 5 day bull run really isn't a bad thing... Yet

Here's why I think that it's a GBP and USD...


Mabey a good lesson here for some to keep an open mind and try to look into what really happened and not get so focused on just the hype the news spews out about the euro. That way you don't miss the bigger picture.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #16,870
  • Dec 29, 2011 3:08pm Dec 29, 2011 3:08pm
Quoting PipKiller
I guess I need to call them and tell them to pay up for stealing my research because I was calling that yesterday.
the irony is that yesterday was the rumor of downgrades, etc etc and there is a big selloff. today, however, we have a factually poorer than anticipated bond auction (given LTRO) and equities rally 1%.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #16,871
  • Dec 29, 2011 3:08pm Dec 29, 2011 3:08pm
I am going to watch January and save some money to book a position for some months ... this is 12 months Trend Analysis it looks until Jan ends picture for a longer position will not be clear .... btw down shows possibly 1.24xx
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  • #16,872
  • Dec 29, 2011 3:49pm Dec 29, 2011 3:49pm
ForexLive North American wrap: A disjointed rebound

Written by Adam Button
December 29, 2011 at 21:26 GMT

Initial jobless claims 381K vs 370K exp; prompting jobs optimism

Chicago PMI 62.5 vs 61.0 exp

US pending home sales +7.3% in Nov vs +2.0% exp

EUR/USD hits 15-month low but rebounds

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard stirs the pot on EUR money supply

Fed’s senior loan officer survey sees broad credit tightening

KC Fed manufacturing index -0.8%

Poland intervenes to boost zloty

Italian 10-year yields rise 3bps to 7.08% after auction

US 10s fall 3bps to 1.90%

Gold hits lows since July then rebounds to nearly unchanged

European equities rise 0.9-1.3%

S&P 500 gains 1.0% to 1262

AUD, JPY lead; GBP, USD lag

The Italian debt auctions were the top story of the day. After a good result in Wednesday’s bill sales, expectations were high but the demand didn’t materialize. As a result, EUR limped into US trading at 1.2887 after hitting an annual low of 1.2858. But it was all higher from there as US stock markets erased most of yesterday’s losses. EUR/USD last traded at 1.2963 — more than a cent off the lows.

The broad tone of markets was disjointed and that spilled over into FX. Although AUD was the top performer, it wasn’t exactly ‘risk on’ as JPY was next best. USD/JPY has fallen nearly 40 pips since hitting 78 yesterday.

Rumors of gold selling at funds continued to circulate and stops were tripped as it fell to $1522, below key support at $1532. But the precious metal spent only 4 hours below the critical level before rebounding to close at $1546.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #16,873
  • Dec 29, 2011 4:31pm Dec 29, 2011 4:31pm
Quoting rekon67
I am going to watch January and save some money to book a position for some months ... this is 12 months Trend Analysis it looks until Jan ends picture for a longer position will not be clear .... btw down shows possibly 1.24xx

i agreee...hehe
Bismillah
  • #16,874
  • Dec 29, 2011 4:31pm Dec 29, 2011 4:31pm
from my view...if it still not break 1.3 i did not ever try to buy this pair....

im still bearish....coz...techinical only show it retrace from 2011 lows only.....

and atleast above 50-60% retracement enough to show the power of bullish.....

from now..im still bearish...till 1.3 i will check PA back!!!
Bismillah
  • #16,875
  • Dec 29, 2011 4:42pm Dec 29, 2011 4:42pm
ALL THOSE CHARTS BLEW UP THAT LAST PAGE!

EDIT: Top of Page
  • #16,876
  • Dec 29, 2011 4:43pm Dec 29, 2011 4:43pm
Quoting Patience
Now why would you offer to give a 14 year old $50,000 for a 5% per month return when you can do 10% with your eyes closed?




Okay, I'm confused now. Do you do 10% a month with your eyes closed and 5% a month with your eyes open?




Please stop. You're killing me
Hi Patience,

Perhaps you have skipped page 1 of this thread altogether. That's understandable. I mean who the hell has time to read a bunch of posts that were made many moons ago? What relevance could they possibly have? For the most part, you would be fully justified asking such questions, so I will give you the answer as it relates to this thread in particular.

Every building has a foundation on which blocks of stone or other building materials are built. That foundation is the key to a solid building and anything that compromises the foundation, in turn effectively compromises the entire building.

Page 1 is the foundation of this thread. It includes the rules and objectives I have laid out as the thread starter and rule enforcer.

Please read page 1 and then please come back and re-read your post to see if you feel it is in compliance with those same rules.

Your constructive participation here is more than welcomed. Healthy debate on any Euro related subject is also welcomed. In fact anything related to trading the Euro is encouraged. However, sarcasm, ridicule, criticism or any of the kind directed at another poster is not.

I thank you for your cooperation in this matter. Please consider this a fair warning that I cannot and will not tolerate such posts from anyone. If I did, I would be allowing this thread to degenerate to the same level as some other threads which are not even worth mentioning.

Thanks and Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #16,877
  • Dec 29, 2011 5:03pm Dec 29, 2011 5:03pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Hi Patience,

Perhaps you have skipped page 1 of this thread altogether. That's understandable. I mean who the hell has time to read a bunch of posts that were made many moons ago? What relevance could they possibly have? For the most part, you would be fully justified asking such questions, so I will give you the answer as it relates to this thread in particular.

Every building has a foundation on which blocks of stone or other building materials are built. That foundation is the key to a solid building and anything that compromises the foundation,...

and foundation tend to failed if it cant sustaint the structure load and due to soil settlement....hahahhaa
Bismillah
  • #16,878
  • Dec 29, 2011 5:39pm Dec 29, 2011 5:39pm
Quoting krunfx
and foundation tend to failed if it cant sustaint the structure load and due to soil settlement....hahahhaa
That is why it is so important to keep the BS to a minimum. BS is too heavy.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #16,879
  • Dec 29, 2011 5:46pm Dec 29, 2011 5:46pm
Quoting PipTrapper
That is why it is so important to keep the BS to a minimum. BS is too heavy.

BS??iu mean british standart???


sorry ...im an engineer so we usually used BS-british snatart a term..haha
Bismillah
  • #16,880
  • Dec 29, 2011 5:58pm Dec 29, 2011 5:58pm
PT, I am personally curious -- are you holding over the long NYE weekend?
Any prices quoted are futures
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