EURUSD

Yes mate.

Just for feel:

Mixed results from today's Italian bond auction; German CPI expected higher m/m; GBPUSD at fresh 13 week low and EURJPY nears 100 level. Market turns to jobless claims, Chicago PMI and pending home sales. Thursday's Premium trades are up.

Risk aversion stabilizes while EURUSD struggles to regain $1.29 after dipping to 1.2850s. US equity futures are modestly higher.

German December CPI is still being collected but states that have already published their results saw annual inflation in the 1.7% to 2.4% range. Monthly CPI rose 0.5% to 0.7% which is attributed to holiday season. Results for the whole of Germany will be published later today.

Italy sold EUR 7.02 bln (5 to 8.5 bln target) worth of bonds today. The yield was mixed, bonds maturing in 2014 and 2022 saw lower yield while bonds maturing in 2022 and 2018 saw higher yield. Bid to cover was on the weak side between 1.35 and 1.97. The 10 year Italian-German spread widened 13 bps immediately after the auction and stands at 519 bps. Italian business confidence fell in December to 92.5 from previous 94.0.

yes both levels possible. but avoid selling. we may just have a big short squeeze soon. now is the time to do it.

data is not going to make or break the markets. I think it will be something else. I am staying out for rest of the year now. hahaha. One day to stay out.

..uh, could it be because there are so many dumb reasons to go short and so many people acting on them?

Top 5 dumb reasons to go short E/U:

1. I think I see a double top there around 0842 EST!
2. The Italian auctions weren't that good.
3. I found a bunch of EURO negative stories on DJ this morning.
4. It can't get much above "the figure" (1.2900 is a figure ya know...).
5. I think I see a downtrend line from about 0900 EST yesterday!

i am holding long (2860) , but i do see some chances for short as well, current situation is like cat on the wall

Eu will go UP now.

Buy now - thank me later

Well, it's really helpful for me to try and imagine why so many people will do the same thing. Often, price will do the opposite.

But it does take imagination.

probably right.

i don't think it's good place for entry (@ resistant), my entry was 2860. sl be (1/2 booked), planing to close tomorrow

hi what is the rational? pls advice...

"Generally the market (any market) acts to make the greatest number of people wrong. " - quote by Art Cashin, UBS floor manager, NYSE

It's like a law of nature.

should see a firm USDX bounce here and because of this we may seen a short squeeze/biounce to 1.2950.

I doubt that. My TP wasn't reached

well, Eu may rise but the chance is a bit risky though, it is the fact that the US data is bad, however relatively comparing with situation is the EZ , the US is a way better and now with the concern of how China economy is going in the near term , the prospect of global economy recovery is still undefined... So in way US will still be sought for help or to help other troublesome issue, as example lowering USD borrowing cost to be lend to EZ counterpart last time.

However, the situation will be different if EZ able to solve its crisis or able to convince the investors by coming out a concrete plan on how solve the problem.


Just my 2 cent..

my wife thinks your hot

hi what is the target sell?

EU is back in action for now.

More feel:

Euro extended its broad based decline after Italian bond auctions. Italy sold EUR 7.02b of 3- to 10-year bonds today, below maximum target of EUR 8.5b. Sales of 2022 bond hit max target of EUR 2.5b. Yield was just below the unsustainable 7% at 6.98% even though it dropped from November's 7.56%. Yield on the three year bond due in 2014 dropped from November's 7.89% to 5.62%. However, sales of 2014 and 2021 bonds fell short of the maximum target. This week's result so far firstly suggested that short term funding stress was eased for Italy, but investors are still uncertain on the longer term outlook. Secondly, the fact that the three year bond auction sourly missed target raised much concern that the ECB's EUR 489b three year LTRO fund are not channeled back into peripheral bonds markets. Eurozone M3 money supply rose less than expected by 2.0% yoy in November.

US initial jobless claims rose more than expected to 381k in the week ended December 24, the first rise in a month. Nonetheless, the figure managed to stay below 400k market. Prior week's figure was revised slightly higher to 366k. The four week moving average dropped to 375k, best number since June 2008. Continuing claims also rose 34k to 3.6m in the month ended December 17.

As noted before, EUR/CAD was one of the weakest pair this month next to EUR/USD, and EUR/JPY. Last week's sharp decline indicated that consolidative pattern from 1.2449 has completed at 1.4379 already. This week's extended decline to as low as 1.3170 so far further affirms this bearish view. We'd expect a test on 1.2774 support in near term. Sustained break there will raise the odds that medium term fall from 1.7512 (2008 high) is resuming for a new low below 1.2449. In any case, near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3555 resistance holds even in case of recovery.

For a little ways.