EURUSD

Sell Euro with a reasonable target 0,8500 within the next two-three weeks.What do you think???

Possibly a low R:R entry either long or short..

http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/2155/eurv.gif

is that an indicator? if so can you tell me which one?

1.15 to 1.60 next year range !???

No its not an indicator. Just simple TL's drawn. I refer above formation as "the arrow". Or one may simply call it a pennant

Just kidding mate. Thanks for your reply anyway..

Although I still believe that Euro is due to tremendous drop.I might be wrong of course..

sell

Euro is on its way to break 2011 low

The euro (EUR) is the official currency of the eurozone: 17 of the 27 member states of the European Union. It is also the currency used by the Institutions of the European Union. The eurozone consists of Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. The currency is also used in a further five European countries and consequently used daily by some 332 million Europeans. Additionally, over 175 million people worldwide - including 150 million people in Africa - use currencies which are pegged to the euro.

The euro is the second largest reserve currency as well as the second most traded currency in the world after the United States dollar. As of July 2011, with nearly €890 billion in circulation, the euro has the highest combined value of banknotes and coins in circulation in the world, having surpassed the U.S. dollar. Based on International Monetary Fund estimates of 2008 GDP and purchasing power parity among the various currencies, the eurozone is the second largest economy in the world.

The name euro was officially adopted on December 16, 1995. The euro was introduced to the world and came into existence within the financial markets as an accounting currency on January 1, 1999, replacing the former European Currency Unit (ECU) at a ratio of 1:1. Although it has been a goal of the European Union (EU) and its predecessors since the 1960’s; (Take note this was also during Bush Sr. administration of Presidency whom was also a member of the alumni of creating a one world order) there were tough negotiations, particularly due to opposition from the United Kingdom, the Maastricht Treaty entered into force in 1993 with the goal of creating economic and monetary union by 1999 for all EU states except the UK and Denmark (even though Denmark has a fixed exchange rate policy with the euro).

In 1999 the currency was born virtually and in 2002 notes and coins began to circulate. It rapidly took over from the former national currencies and slowly expanded behind the rest of the EU. In 2009 the Lisbon Treaty formalized its political authority, the Euro Group, alongside the European Central Bank.

First ideas of an economic and monetary union in Europe were raised well before establishing the European Communities. For example, already in the League of Nations, Gustav Stresemann asked in 1929 for a European currency against the background of an increased economic division due to a number of new nation states in Europe after WWI. At this time memories of the Latin Monetary Union involving principally France, Italy, Belgium and Switzerland and which, for practical purposes, had disintegrated following the First World War, will have figured prominently in the minds of policy makers.

A first attempt to create an economic and monetary union between the members of the European Economic Community goes back to an initiative by the European Commission in 1969, which set out the need for "greater co-ordination of economic policies and monetary cooperation." This was followed up at a meeting of the European Council at The Hague in December 1969. The European Council tasked Pierre Werner, Prime Minister of Luxembourg, with finding a way to reduce currency exchange rate volatility. His report was published in October 1970 and recommended centralization of the national macroeconomic policies entailing "the total and irreversible fixing of parity rates and the complete liberation of movements of capital." But he did not propose a single currency or central bank. An attempt to limit the fluctuations of European currencies, using a snake in the tunnel, failed.

In 1971, US President Richard Nixon removed the gold backing from the US dollar, causing a collapse in the Bretton Woods system that managed to affect all of the world's major currencies. The widespread currency floats and devaluations set back aspirations for European monetary union. However in March 1979 the European Monetary System (EMS) was created, fixing exchange rates onto the European Currency Unit (ECU), an accounting currency, in order to stabilize exchange rates and counter inflation. It also created the European Monetary Cooperation Fund (EMCF).

In February 1986 the Single European Act formalized political co-operation within the Community including competency in monetary policy. European Council summit in Hannover on June 14, 1988 began to outline monetary co-operation. France, Italy and European Commission backed a fully monetary union with a central bank, which British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher opposed.

The Hannover European Council asked Commission President Jacques Delors to chair an ad hoc committee of central bank governors to propose a new timetable with clear, practical and realistic steps for creating an economic and monetary union. This way of working was derived from the Spaak method.

The Delors report of 1989 set out a plan to introduce the EMU in three stages and it included the creation of institutions such as the European System of Central Banks (ESCB), which would become responsible for formulating and implementing monetary policy. It laid out monetary union being accomplished in three steps. Beginning the first of these steps, on July 1, 1990, exchange controls were abolished, thus capital movements were completely liberalized in the European Economic Community. Leaders reached agreement on currency union with the Maastricht Treaty, signed on February 7, 1992. It agreed to create a single currency, although without the participation of the United Kingdom, by January 1999.

Gaining approval for the treaty was a challenge. Germany was cautious about giving up its stable currency, i.e. the German Mark, France approved the treaty by a narrow margin and Denmark refused to ratify until they got an opt out from monetary union as the United Kingdom, an opt-out which they maintain as of 2011. On September 16, 1992, known in the UK as Black Wednesday, the British pound sterling was forced to withdraw from the fixed exchange rate system due to a rapid fall in the value of the pound.

Delors' second stage began in 1994 with creation of the European Monetary Institute, succeeding the EMCF, under Maastricht. It was created as the forerunner to the European Central Bank. It met for the first time on January 12 under its first President, Alexandre Lamfalussy. After much disagreement, in December 1995 the name euro was adopted for the new currency (replacing the name Ecu used for the previous accounting currency) on the suggestion of then-German finance minister Theo Waigel. They also agreed on the date January 1, 1999 for its launch.

On June 17, 1997 the European Council decided in Amsterdam to adopt the Stability and Growth Pact, designed to ensure budgetary discipline after creation of the euro, and a new exchange rate mechanism (ERM II) was set up to provide stability above the euro and the national currencies of countries that hadn't yet entered the eurozone. Then, on May 3, 1998, at the European Council in Brussels, the 11 initial countries that would participate in the third stage from January 1, 1999 were selected. In order to participate in the new currency, member states had to meet strict criteria such as a budget deficit of less than 3% of their GDP, a debt ratio of less than 60% of GDP, low inflation, and interest rates close to the EU average. Greece failed to meet the criteria and was excluded from participating on January 1, 1999.

On June 1, 1998 the European Central Bank succeeded the European Monetary Institute. However it wouldn't take on its full powers until the euro was created on January 1, 1999. The bank's first President was Wim Duisenberg, former head of the EMI and the Dutch central bank. The conversion rates between the 11 participating national currencies and the euro were then established. The rates were determined by the Council of the European Union, based on a recommendation from the European Commission based on the market rates on December 31, 1998, so that one ECU would equal one euro. These rates were set by Council Regulation 2866/98 (EC), of December 31, 1998. They could not be set earlier, because the ECU depended on the closing exchange rate of the non-euro currencies (principally the pound sterling) that day. Due to differences in national conventions for rounding and significant digits, all conversion between the national currencies had to be carried out using the process of triangulation via the euro.

The currency was introduced in non-physical form (traveller's cheques, electronic transfers, banking, etc.) at midnight on January 1, 1999, when the national currencies of participating countries (the Eurozone) ceased to exist independently in that their exchange rates were locked at fixed rates against each other, effectively making them mere non-decimal subdivisions of the euro. The euro thus became the successor to the European Currency Unit (ECU). The notes and coins for the old currencies, however, continued to be used as legal tender until new notes and coins were introduced on 1 January 2002. Beginning on January 1, 1999, all bonds and other forms of government debt by Eurozone nations were denominated in euros.

On the first day of trading, January 5, 1999, since its launch, the euro climbed to 1.19 USD. It was rapidly taken up and dealers were surprised by the speed at which it replaced the national currencies. Trading in the Deutsche Mark was expected to continue in parallel but vanished as soon as the markets opened. However, by the end of 1999 the euro had dropped to parity with the dollar leading to emergency action from the G7 to support the euro in 2001.

Later in 2000, Denmark held a referendum on whether to abandon their opt-out from the euro. The referendum resulted in a decision to retain the krone, and also set back plans for a referendum in the UK as a result. The procedure used to fix the irrevocable conversion rate of 340.750 between the Greek drachma and the euro was different, since the euro by then was already two years old. While the conversion rates for the initial eleven currencies were determined only hours before the euro was introduced as a virtual currency, the conversion rate for the Greek drachma was fixed several months beforehand, in Council Regulation 1478/2000 (EC), of June 19, 2000.

After dropping to an intraday low of $0.8296 on October 26, 2001, and a brief crash to $0.8115 on January 15, 2002, the euro soon recovered from its early slump. Its value last closed below $1.00 on November 6, 2002 ($0.9971), and increased rapidly from there. It peaked at $1.35 in 2004, and reached its highest value versus the U.S. dollar at $1.5916 on July 14, 2008. As its values increased against the pound sterling in the late 2000’s, peaking at 97.73p on December 31, 2008, its international usage grew rapidly. The euro grew in importance steadily, with its share of foreign exchange reserves rising from nearly 18% in 1999 to 25% in 2003 - while the dollar share fell by an equivalent margin. Alan Greenspan in 2007 said the eurozone had profited from the euro's rise and claimed it was perfectly conceivable that it could trade equally or become more important than the US dollar in the future.

At least this was the plan – two fiat currencies (EUR/USD) fighting for primacy.

As a result of the global financial crisis that began in 2007/2008, the eurozone entered its first official recession in the third quarter of 2008, official figures confirmed in January 2009. The EU was in negative growth for the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 before returning to positive growth (for the Eurozone as a whole).

The leaders of the central banks began hammered out a plan to confront the financial crisis which will involve hundreds of billions of euros of new initiatives to head off a feared "meltdown". They agreed a bank rescue plan: governments would buy into banks to boost their finances and guarantee interbank lending. Coordination against the crisis is considered vital to prevent the actions of one country harming another and exacerbating the bank solvency and credit shortage problems. In the Great Depression, so-called "beggar-thy-neighbor" measures taken unilaterally by countries are considered to have deepened the economic loss.

However, with the risk of a default in Greece and other members in late 2009-10, eurozone leaders agreed to agree provisions for bailing out member states that could not raise funds (triggered for Greece in April 2010). This was a u-turn on the EU treaties which rule out any bail out of a euro member in order to encourage them to manage their finances better. Yet with Greece struggling to restore its finances, other member states also at risk and the repercussions this would have on the rest of the eurozone economy; a temporary bail out mechanism was agreed and devised in the form of a special purpose vehicle (SPV) named "European Financial Stability Facility" (complemented by the European Financial Stabilization Mechanism and funds form the International Monetary Fund), aiming at preserving financial stability in Europe by providing financial assistance to eurozone states in difficulty. The crisis also spurred consensus for further economic integration and a range of proposals such as a "European Monetary Fund" or federal treasury.

In June 2010, broad agreement was finally reached on a controversial proposal for member states to peer review each others' budgets prior to their presentation to national parliaments. Although showing the entire budget to each other was opposed by Germany, Sweden and the UK, each government would present to their peers and the Commission their estimates for growth, inflation, revenue and expenditure levels six months before they go to national parliaments. If a country was to run a deficit, they would have to justify it to the rest of the EU while countries with a debt more than 60% of GDP would face greater scrutiny. The plans would apply to all EU members, not just the eurozone, and have to be approved by EU leaders along with proposals for states to face sanctions before they reach the 3% limit in the Stability and Growth Pact. Poland has criticized the idea of withholding regional funding for those who break the deficit limits, as that would only impact the poorer states. In June 2010 France agreed to back Germany's plan for suspending the voting rights of members who breach the rules.

In late 2010/early 2011 it was agreed to replace the European Financial Stability Facility and European Financial Stability Mechanism with a larger and permanent European Stability Mechanism (ESM). The ESM required a treaty amendment to allow it and a separate treaty to establish it but, if ratified successfully, would be established in time to take over when the old facilities expire in 2013. Meanwhile, in order to support Italy and prevent it having to ask for a bail-out later, the ECB controversially started buying Italian bonds, as it had done with Greece.

In March 2011 was initiated a new reform of the Stability and Growth Pact aiming at straightening the rules by adopting an automatic procedure for imposing of penalties in case of breaches of either the deficit or the debt rules. The Euro Plus Pact sets out a wide range of reforms to take place in the Eurozone to ensure and the French and German governments further agreed to push for a 'true economic government' that would involve twice-yearly eurozone leader summits and a financial transactions tax.

Although the Japanese yen and particularly the German mark have been used internationally in the past several decades, neither currency approached the international use of the dollar. With the creation of the euro, for the first time the dollar has a potential rival for the status as the primary international currency. What changes in the international use of the dollar had occurred in the first decade of the euro’s existence? What changes are likely over the next decade? Moreover, what are the implications for the United States and the euro area as a result of these changes? And then we go on and ask why was the euro created in the first place? What was the Central Banks intention in creating the euro?

To answer these questions an overview of the functions of an international currency and the major factors that determine whether a currency will be used outside its borders.

Economists define money as anything that serves the following three functions: a unit of account, a store of value, and a medium of exchange. To operate as a unit of account, prices must be set in terms of the money. To function as a store of value, the purchasing power of money must be maintained over time. To function as a medium of exchange, the money must be used for purchasing goods and services.

With this in mind bring us back to the 1960’s when the euro was first conceived buy the Central Banks - which are also members and share holders of the greatest corporation in the world - which is the Federal Reserve Bank. And these members also belong to the most evil group of people in the world – The Alumni.

The Alumni are bankers and politicians from all over the world and their only goal is One World Order in which they control. But they first must have One World Bank in order to have the control, and the reason is because currency is the control factor of dominance for any country over their people.

So the question for the alumni is how to create a one world bank without the people being wise of their plan. And the answer was the eurozone.

The eurozone was a testing ground to see if one currency can dominate the 17 countries and/or all 27 without retaliation of a treaty. If they can stabilize one currency in all these countries then they can convince the world that one currency is an answer to stabilizing the world economy; and if they could pull this off - then One World Order was next in line.

Since 1913 the US Dollar has been the primary currency for trading and as of today is the most printed currency ever in history and is the only currency that dominates every country in the world and its purchasing power is just about “0”. And the reason – is because the Dollar is fiat money just as the Euro is.

A fiat money is a medium of exchange composed of some intrinsically valueless substance which the issuer does not promise to redeem in a commodity or fiduciary money.

Because a fiat money has no direct legal connection to a commodity money (in terms of redemption) and, therefore, no real economic cost to its production, the supply of a fiat money can never be self-limiting; and the value of a fiat money is always largely a matter of public confidence in the economic or political stability of the issuer.

Historically every major fiat money have self-destructed in what is popularly called “hyperinflation” (that is, extreme decreases in purchasing-power) caused by either unlimited increases in the supply of that fiat money by the issuer or accelerating loss of public confidence in the continued value of the money or the economic or political fortunes of its issuer, or both.

The theory and history of fiduciary money (which is also largely the theory and history of banking) must always focus on the ever-present problem of redemption. Emphasis on the noun “problem” is warranted, because fiduciary money is, by definition, a promise to pay the real, commodity money of the country.

A piece of commodity money – typically, a silver or gold coin – is itself payment because it contains a fixed weight of precious metal. But a unit of fiduciary money – typically, a bank or government-treasury note – is only a contingent and uncertain payment that depends upon the ability or the willingness of the issuer to redeem. And there always exists a temptation for issuers to renege on their promises to redeem.

Thus, fiduciary money always threatens to become fraudulent money. Not surprisingly, therefore, the history of fiduciary money has been more or less the history of monetary fraud, both economic and political.

Also, the danger of fraud in the issuance of fiduciary money becomes particularly acute in the case of modern “fractional-reserve banking”.

Under fractional-reserve banking, the bank always issues more units of fiduciary money, supposedly “payable on demand”, than it has units of commodity money available for redemption, counting on the unlikelihood that the majority of its customers will ever seek redemption at one time. Thus, modern fractional-reserve banking is inherently fraudulent, because:

For the bank simultaneously to fulfill all its promises to redeem its outstanding notes “on demand” is impossible. The bank’s managers know that complete redemption “on demand” is impossible, and therefore that the bank’s promises to pay are false.

And,

The bank’s customers, by and large, are ignorant of how the fractional-reserve scheme works, and the dangers it poses to them.

The bottom line for the eurozone is these various countries are finding that this fiat money has a set value control by the Central Bank of Europe and cannot establish their own taxes, economic reform, power to control their own destiny, and place value upon their own commodities because the value of the euro will not let them freely do so - but is control of the euro value itself. In reality – there is no treaty that can establish a separation of one dominant currency from individual counties and their way of life.

So I believe the euro is doomed to fail just like every other time through out history. This also means the alumni had also failed in their attempt to control the world currency by establishing One World Bank.

Thus far the euro is falling and I believe going into next year the euro will fall to the table of 1.1800 and then reestablish a ranging mark and remain there for the duration of time. With the euro failing the FRB cannot risk the dollar of loosing power so they must reestablish the dollar against the euro in primacy, and that is what has been happening lately in the market. This will also reestablish the balance of world currencies.

if long then need to wait for the 27-8 zone,if to short then wait for revisit to the 3030 and higher,if cant wait to short then short gbp/usd as it will follow euro eventually

Waiting 2011 low to break!haha

Ive been waiting 3 week for that. In this market, patient is everything and I just realized it today. So, who is up for more than 150 pip ?

bottom for Asian session

edit : I better side line today , let manipulators to decide direction

The winner is who forecst using fundamental rather than technical..n who is forecast using both of them!haha

Short EUR/USD every uptick. Risk free money is coming. Germany has decided to destroy the EU and to let it fall into deep recession.

SHORT THE EURO-RISK FREE MONEY!!!!

I am gonna call it a year...
going to road trip tomorrow..
happy new year bro..
will see you around next year!
2012 is coming!

I would echo this idea.Seems it's just a matter of time until the Euro is effectively finished.

SHORT every chance you get

happy new year bro , i am going to take my family out today, tomorrow / tonight i might trade