EurAnalysis

I dont think its a problem mate
In fair judgement
Cloggie is a Good Trader,he willing to teach but a bit harsh unless some real Idiot (sorry) make a stupid call without any chart,while am see there are some newbie really like to learn how to trade
I am more respect people with good attitude and dare to speak the truth rather than kiss his ass,am believe you saw that also

Ok, here it is, i'm 19, will be 20 in 27 jul. I'm just a young male who but a lot of hard work, sweat and tears into something that he wants to be succesful with. I did not even study much in school, learned trading.

thanks buma, i have a question.......................do i really sound that eloquent and knowledgeable?

as i told you before, Technical Analysis analyses the influx of orders, however for every cause there is an effect, Fundamental analysis is the cause for players to take positions.

never divorce one from the other.

but dont be mistaken that one can possibly know what billions of people are doing moving trillions of dollars.

hence the importance of staying objective, flexible, adapt, and cope.
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as far as the bid/ask quote and the behavior of price movement, im afraid you are going to have to do it the old fashion way, i spent hours looking at the six majors quote board (till my eyes got watery)

writing down, ways to make sense of the bid/ask, asking myself how i could trade from it. and what information i needed to know in order to make sense of it.

everyone has a different way of doing things and adapting to ones environment.

what i decided that was important to me was.
what is the fair market value for the hour (since i make calculations better in terms of hours), what is normal price variations and standard deviations, and what is a change in direction.
how much does the market move a day, an hour, in five minutes average (again i make better calculations this way)

i noticed a pattern in price behavior acceleration from a point of inflection, loss of momentum, and finally correction, happens over and over and over again.

the most important thing is to feel, observe prevalence in orders.

then coming up with a money management strategy to maximize profits, minimize losses, understanding my threshold of pain, buffer my risk taking. and account growth target.

the best way to learn is, to really truly seek understanding of the terrain one is stepping on and PRAXIS, there is no other way. ______________________________________________________

you got some balls kid lol

start thinking least possible risk.

in your chart you have an exhaustion of the impulse wave, at an are of previous perceived support, however take in to account that the market had priced in the twist but were hoping for a surprise from Heli, no surprise came.

to which the market reacted very decisively, although selling pressure has slowed down. take into account the low liquidity provided by the Asian markets.

dont listen to me though, listen to yourself, however,i will await topping of the corrective wave to short an initial position, trying to ride counter trend up, might be a little risky.
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hey kiddo

i usually do not use stop losses, because i interactively manage my positions however i will not discourage your from doing so.

i will give you some advice on how to set PROBABLE, automatic limit orders (be it stop or take profit)

you see, you cant just take from the market as you wish, you have to know the probabilities, to find an area of realistic target, and to place your Stops, away from volatility you will need to find what is the capacity of the market for x amount of time you are planning to stay in.

example.
i use hourly measurements, trade of the 5 minute chart, but always in line with the daily movement.

to calculate your VAR (value at risk) and have realistic profit target area you need to now the average true range, and the current true range.

example, if you're trading the hourly movement from the five minute candle. first you need a reference point. which is the hourly open. then you need the average true range for last 24hrs, the euro has been moving at a range of 52 pips.

you never know which way it will go so here you know that your VAR is (52)(($)(pip movement))= how much you are risking. as your stops most likely should be placed away from whipsaw.

ans your tp is reasonable to say that it will reach its target at 52 pips tp since for the last 24h that is the average movement of the euro.

ATR is a powerful tool that gives you an idea of what is the probable amount of pips you can obtain from the market, and how much you is probable for the euro to move daily.

(always use your brain kiddo, dont go around following indicators blindly you need them to calculate probabilities for you, not to tell you when to trade) you see i gave you that advise yesterday because, fundamentally and technically my brain said that is a reasonable strategy for the current market condition, positioning yourself at least possible risk)
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hey bumapatria, find patterns in the indicators you experiment with, and try to really understand the idea behind them.

for example

bars, candle sticks= OHLC for X period of time, why? why is this important? what can you measure about the market with this?

SMA,EMA,SMMA,WMA= average price, why? what can you measure with this? why is this important?

supply/demand zones, Bollinger Bands, Range indicator, Support and Resistance= range of price movement, deviation from the mean

oscillators, and momentum indicators= they are calculating possible pull back

elliot wave, dow jones theories= wave within waves, as above so below.

Technical analysis Fundamental analysis= they all try to profit from factors or events that create market inefficiencies

whatever style you end up with, remember that

1 price cannot be predicted
2 the only thing you control is your risk
3 the market is a whole organism not an organ or a cell

i dont see how i can help you any further, unless i teach you to trade like me and give you hand holding sessions.

so please go back to all i have posted, do your research and find your style.
it was my pleasure giving you advice.

See you in the markets kid

Keep well your attitude mate,very like it

there is a reason they call it TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, (not TECHNICAL PREDICTION)


analyze>plan>observe>implement>anal yze>observe>plan>implement AT ALL TIMES.

regarding assuming you are always wrong, put it this way.

you see price is losing upside buying pressure, at about 1.35 right? by the look of the candles you spot a loss in speed, and now some selling pressure is evident. looking at other time frames or reference points in your chart, you notice that price is no longer going up. and what goes up MUST come down, the problem is.

how far?
when will it resume going up?
what if it continues further up before it comes down?

think of a plan, to put it simple you add your first position and you wait how the market is reacting, if you are confident on your analysis you add you second position, or methodically scale in.

you observe, price never moves in a straight line, so on every impulse wave you will have corrective waves, you measure the force, you observe and assess if your analysis is still valid (dont chicken out and pull out, BUT CONSTANTLY PERFORM OBJECTIVE MARKET ANALYSIS)

what happens if you were wrong? do you just put a stop loss and bite the bullet?

or do you average down close to market to get out b/e at a corrective wave?

do you hold for price to come back? IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE MARKET, IF YOU ASSESSMENT, YOUR POSITION STILL VALID

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watch the price first and foremost.
large candles=large price range
small candles= decrease momentum

look at different time frames to see where price is at the moment in line with the bigger waves.
when do you short on your small time frame? when the hourly time frame is topping right? what greater set up than to short the euro on a down trend when the daily chart is topping, at the point where the hourly chart is topping, using the five minute chart to short at the best possible price

simple enough?

but always be aware that price cannot be predicted so be ready for any eventualities.


it is simple to implement theory with practice and experience, but i hope bumapatria realises what im trying to do. build his experience and give him, ways to objectively analyse price, once he gets good at it with practice, he can eyeball the charts and read the news and automatically come up with strategies and know HOW to observe. __________________

Older people have this ego thing, when younger person talks. That's why I like internet because people can't know what age you are, you can only judge them by looking what fruits they carry.

nah this am agreed with you but whatever how ego it is,we still need need to respect them as they are older than us
However,am believe that you would become more success because of your good attitude mate
thats the first thing in life or even trading

hey 19 i am a bit surprised there.

i did study a lot, although i spent of all of high school acting like an ass, because i wanted to conceal the fact that i had goals set up, and projects in life.

i used to play soccer, boxing, tae kwon do, and Football, as well as Basketball because i did not want my friends getting the idea that i was smart, and did not want to be called a nerd.

UCI,UCLA,Loma Linda, were never the subject of conversation, neither honors, or AP classes.

American culture rewards those that act stupid and rude

i used to hide the fact that in high school i was already working on my career, and even was late to my graduation due to taking an entrance exam.
Fairly recently I was still taking classes to further my education in my field but i decided i like Trading as much as i like seeing patients. Actually a bit more, so i decided to work on call at nights and give up my regular patients, so i seldom go to the office nowadays.

and get paid to answer phone calls and trouble shoot the emergencies at night but i am really really lucky that i collect a salary from doing absolutely no work.

i get paid to be at home and trade or sleep. Is not as much as before but heck is all i need.

anyway, i digress, i am 26 years old

Of course, it's a two-way thing.

somehow am feel this thread like a real family (online version)
Perhaps in next year each of us should publish our own picture for know more closer one each other then another next year make a arrangement for meet

Together lets hand to hand brings the peace and profits to the world
Time for smoke

hi tyoon, i believe that person vouched for me as i just looked. i actually thought i had one vouch and that was off mla. anyway that person mailed me a few times asking my trading way lol. and as someone said earlier successful traders do not share and i do not. i do like to help others with advice. i just remembered thanks for the vouch Buma but like i did say ages ago these vouches dont mean a thing to me but thankyou anyway. and as for my very simple trading way. once my back testing is complete and i mean going back many many years i will sell the method, and it can be back tested,( hopefully sell) lol. take care all good trading

It's just this kid thing that you had, work hard young and later you can enjoy your fruits. It's even a bit funny now, many classmates work right now on low payment jobs and i'm like a boss. Damn good feeling I must say.

you mean goldman doesnt really look like a cowboy with a poncho and is forever pointing gun at people?

19 years old, smart and multilingual.

my hats off to you dude

Mla's post that i only learn to truly respect recently:

Traders with a bias, lost money, the ones without made good money, up and down.
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Greatness and beauty are everywhere, you just need to train you eye to spot them.
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This is how simple the guy is using trendlines:
feel the market, look at each bar prior to the TL, where are the bulls and where are the bears, did the bear push down before at the same level? Who is trapped pushing the trade in the opposite direction? Nothing is black and white is all grey. Get in at a good price, and take partial profit before she gets back to your SL.

mla
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What I mean is this: in life like in trading absolute truths does not exist, what is right for me in not necessary right for you. Becuase we have different perception based on our own experiences). That all.

Gain knowledge, like you are doing, (you have good people working with you), and based on that knowledge start to create your own edge,

I cannot or no one can do that for you, you need to input your creativity (energy, self ect..) in building your way of trading that relates to your personality. That is your edge.

That is way many people cannot make it in this business, because they think that they can borrow and edge from somewhere else without applying that creativity that is essential to make it.

Is more or less when you play soccer, I can tell you how to play, but if you do not get completely involved (physically and creatively), you would not understand and most importantly you would not have fun.

Also you need to decide what you want to get out of it, do you want to be and
analyst or do you want to be a trader. Because there are 2 completely different types, one makes money telling others many stories (and rarely make money trading) the other make money trading (if they are good at it).
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Mate, you worry to much.
You got the age of my older son. This what I will tell you both:
Try to follow your heart and less your mind and you will be safer.
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Mike if u reading this right now, u are my inspiration and i will never forget u for a second of my life.

he doesnt point, he freaking shoots it!

one day , buma was drawing a demand level. honestly i thought it was good, but
it didnt look like what goldman looked for...


He shot me in the leg.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Kq5EUxK2tP...in2005-38s.jpg
good tiems good times...

that doesnt like a gun but like a cigaratee for me "Do you want have one?"