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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #16,441
  • Dec 28, 2011 5:05am Dec 28, 2011 5:05am
Quoting Tyoon
Did your friend inspire you to start trading?
Hmm...I dont think so,he just show me that trading shouldnt be complicated,make it simple and with proper MM all of us would success in this business later

Simple trendlines - Daily TF - No Indies at all - with RR 1:3 - No More No less

He use many kinds of method before,but simply didnt work..if you see how he draw a daily trendlines,all of us would be surprises how simple it is..the problem is human mind,we keep make it complicated and sometimes we cant accept how simple its
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #16,442
  • Dec 28, 2011 5:24am Dec 28, 2011 5:24am
Quoting FXMindset
Hmm...I dont think so,he just show me that trading shouldnt be complicated,make it simple and with proper MM all of us would success in this business later

Simple trendlines - Daily TF - No Indies at all - with RR 1:3 - No More No less

He use many kinds of method before,but simply didnt work..if you see how he draw a daily trendlines,all of us would be surprises how simple it is..the problem is human mind,we keep make it complicated and sometimes we cant accept how simple its
yes its quite amazing how trendlines work. market geometry is quite the topic isnt it?

human mind... well we got problems for sure we need to overcome daily when we trade. minute-to-minute basis.

lets try and explain my trade entry here on this chart of crude oil. i more or less caught the top here, but it wasnt the case. i seriously wanted to go short much earlier.

here is how i explain human psychology of ... "Impatience". Turned into a positive aspect = Patience.
I believe negative emotions or our 'demons' can be used to guide us, instead of shooing them away. because trading with no emotion is just bollocks i have to say. Confidence is an emotion. PAtience is an emotion. i live by trading through my GOOD emotions. Trading LED by our demons IS THe scheize that we shouldnt do.

i didnt short the 2 earlier levels, but i swear i was finger on the trigger but held. i am more or less a sniper not a shotgun trader. had to reposition there...

anyways i was quite glad i didnt let my demons trade, but i let them guide me to correct myself.
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #16,443
  • Dec 28, 2011 5:28am Dec 28, 2011 5:28am
Quoting bumapatria
yes its quite amazing how trendlines work. market geometry is quite the topic isnt it?

human mind... well we got problems for sure we need to overcome daily when we trade. minute-to-minute basis.

lets try and explain my trade entry here on this chart of crude oil. i more or less caught the top here, but it wasnt the case. i seriously wanted to go short much earlier.

here is how i explain human psychology of ... "Impatience". Turned into a positive aspect = Patience.
I believe negative emotions or our 'demons' can be used to guide us,...
Dont need too swear
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #16,444
  • Dec 28, 2011 5:30am Dec 28, 2011 5:30am
Quoting FXMindset
Dont need too swear
lol i just thought i might sound Breayteesh

saying bollocks which of course i am not LOLZ

just a tryout.

americans are more harsh with the FU$%!
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #16,445
  • Dec 28, 2011 5:44am Dec 28, 2011 5:44am
Quoting FXMindset
Simple trendlines - Daily TF - No Indies at all - with RR 1:3 - No More No less
I got rid of all indies a few weeks ago. Many old school traders that use the basic tools; fibs, pivots, TL, S/R made a killing in the day and still do today.

I tell a lie, there is one indie I use but it's still based on PA.
  • #16,446
  • Dec 28, 2011 5:46am Dec 28, 2011 5:46am
Quoting Tyoon
I got rid of all indies a few weeks ago. Many old school traders that use the basic tools; fibs, pivots, TL, S/R made a killing and still do today.

I tell a lie, there is one indie I use but it's still based on PA.
Tell a lie need a kiss,Heh...
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #16,447
  • Dec 28, 2011 5:48am Dec 28, 2011 5:48am
Quoting Tyoon
I got rid of all indies a few weeks ago. Many old school traders that use the basic tools; fibs, pivots, TL, S/R made a killing in the day and still do today.

I tell a lie, there is one indie I use but it's still based on PA.
WHATS HTE INDICAOTR?!! TELL ME!!!

is it the holy grail?

Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #16,448
  • Dec 28, 2011 6:01am Dec 28, 2011 6:01am
Quoting bumapatria
hmm not so quite... there is no right triangle on that one.
that would be an equilateral triangle on ur chart or something like it.


here is an example but definetly they didnt meet value wise but worked out none theless.

the best setups are around 1-4 digits away.

this one was 8 whole digits away. i didnt expect this to work out lol.

but thats how it works really.
measure tiem, measure price, square them both, add them. then u have c2 then square root it to remove the square. then thats ur price/time value of that swing.
I only get a visual conclusion using this ... will try the stats later..
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  • #16,449
  • Dec 28, 2011 6:16am Dec 28, 2011 6:16am
Quoting bumapatria
WHATS HTE INDICAOTR?!! TELL ME!!!

is it the holy grail?

Lol, no, but it's a damn good one.
  • #16,450
  • Dec 28, 2011 6:18am Dec 28, 2011 6:18am
depends how you look at it

as i said before Goldman doesn't quite realize that in fact he is making complicated calculations however he is doing it at a subconscious level.

he calculates, he calculates the prevalence in the executions of orders via previously tested price levels= supply and demand zones.

by looking at his candles i bet, he measures the displacement= length of candle, the acceleration of velocity/time= as the range and orders increase in speed.
he can see the volatility and normal distribution by using his eyes to see the price now viz a viz the moving average, and can spot the deceleration and loss in momentum ans price slows, and forms rounded distribution, or accumulation areas.

if he uses stop losses, he can rapidly scan, and make a risk assessment judgement. Calculates in his brain distance, of price to stop loss and decides on lot sizes to derive at risk exposure desideratum.
with all this in mind he does a calculation of probabilities and statistics by previous experience that were similar to this scenario

and finally he buys or sells.


except he is not aware of all this and calls it, simple, and we call it experience.


what am I getting at?

our decisions are based upon memory, memory of events, conditions patterns, and when we have internalized the calculations needed we subconsciously "just know". So in order to trade with simple indicators a complex system is build in the neurological data banks.

now.......

a trend line, is it really simple?

NO, a trend line is a complicated calculation of linear projection, by desired point. It could be projected to a moving average, lows or highs.
what it measures is constant trajectory, speed, similar to time series analysis without the cyclical seasonality studies.

however we just draw it on a chart.....but if you think about WHY it works.
when participants, arrive to the collective decision to either increase or decrease the current orders, the velocity in the movement of quote changes, and when the current environment is no longer inefficient, the market will try to find liquidity and equilibrium it shows as a break in the trend line.

trajectory and speed due to order execution no longer remains constant and....there you have it.

why is it that a newbie with a trend line has completely different results than a pro with a trend line. The pro either with intent or inadvertently understands how to use this tool to analyse the current market condition.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #16,451
  • Dec 28, 2011 6:31am Dec 28, 2011 6:31am
Quoting the redlion
depends how you look at it

as i said before Goldman doesn't quite realize that in fact he is making complicated calculations however he is doing it at a subconscious level.

he calculates, he calculates the prevalence in the executions of orders via previously tested price levels= supply and demand zones.

by looking at his candles i bet, he measures the displacement= length of candle, the acceleration of velocity/time= as the range and orders increase in speed.
he can see the volatility and normal distribution by using his eyes to see the price...
Nothing to disagree with. There is just no need for complex words.
  • #16,452
  • Dec 28, 2011 6:32am Dec 28, 2011 6:32am
so i suppose my point is.

We all need to learn to use the proper tools to make the proper analysis, which is not only price analysis, but also risk management analysis.
50/50 tape reading and money management is the only way to find the edge.

a naked chart is not really naked

do you want, the real market with NO INDICATORS

trade from quotes.

if you are using a chart=indicator

Knowledge is power, i hear many traders say, exactly the erroneous statement of keep it simple to the new traders. What they do not realize is that simple=complex in subconscious level.

i would say, put more effort into it, and LEARN what is really important. Do not try to have the mentality of "seems like every time there is x, condition there is y result. So i will back test it to see if it works"
finding patters is specious, because they mutate, and change. They do so because YOU DID NOT MAKE THE EFFORT TO UNDERSTAND WHY THE PATTERNS WORKED IN THE FIRST PLACE.

Market structures
Market players
why people trade, or why fx exists in the first place
how price moves
how its quoted
how are orders matched
statistics
micro and macro economics
politics
and the list goes on and on and on.

With large amount of various participants, you get many variable interests, however all these participants are responding to a logical environment. Their actions are reflected on the Charts, its record of transactions.
it is RANDOM LIKE, but anything that is done in response to a factor is not really random.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #16,453
  • Dec 28, 2011 6:32am Dec 28, 2011 6:32am
Quoting Tyoon
I completely agree. Back it up with a quote from cloggs.

"How does one learn to trade.

Learning anything is a long and arduous process. The first step is memorising, just at a rote level memorise price patterns, indies, SR's, etc. just memorise a system.

The next step is comprehension or understanding, actually understanding fully what you have observed and memorised, this is the danger level, a level of knowledge that can lead to overconfidence and many a blown account. This is where most traders reach a learning plateau. This is where...
Talk about indies,simple and cloggie,here his words

For 100 years that's how every body traded until some muppets invented Indy's, the price behaviour ofcurrencies has not changed since it was first traded 600 years ago. Indy's are just there to make brokers money, they just tell you what has happened and give you a visual representation, who cares, I
can see that in the price itself and don't need a christmas tree to tell me.
Look at the posts on here, plenty of people posting charts with signals that have come dozens or even 100 pips after the fact

If you ever have a chance to visit a trading floor and look at what the pros are looking at you will be gobsmacked. Indy's are a crutch invented for noobs to make them feel good.
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #16,454
  • Dec 28, 2011 6:34am Dec 28, 2011 6:34am
if we are all in agreement then there is no grounds for discussion.

forgive my rants lol
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #16,455
  • Dec 28, 2011 6:34am Dec 28, 2011 6:34am
Quoting FXMindset
Talk about indies,simple and cloggie,here his words

For 100 years that's how every body traded until some muppets invented Indy's, the price behaviour ofcurrencies has not changed since it was first traded 600 years ago. Indy's are just there to make brokers money, they just tell you what has happened and give you a visual representation, who cares, I
can see that in the price itself and don't need a christmas tree to tell me.
Look at the posts on here, plenty of people posting charts with signals that have come dozens or even 100 pips after the...
One of my favorite posts in FF.
  • #16,456
  • Dec 28, 2011 6:37am Dec 28, 2011 6:37am
Quoting FXMindset
Talk about indies,simple and cloggie,here his words

For 100 years that's how every body traded until some muppets invented Indy's, the price behaviour ofcurrencies has not changed since it was first traded 600 years ago. Indy's are just there to make brokers money, they just tell you what has happened and give you a visual representation, who cares, I
can see that in the price itself and don't need a christmas tree to tell me.
Look at the posts on here, plenty of people posting charts with signals that have come dozens or even 100 pips after...
You've been reading through cloggs posts too? A little thread on his word on indies.
  • #16,457
  • Dec 28, 2011 6:37am Dec 28, 2011 6:37am
Quoting GoldMan.
One of my favorite posts in FF.
lets smoke and discuss together then
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #16,458
  • Dec 28, 2011 6:38am Dec 28, 2011 6:38am
Quoting Tyoon
You've been reading through cloggs posts too? A little thread on his word on indies.
Not from there,I have his Manual Lesson Book
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #16,459
  • Dec 28, 2011 6:40am Dec 28, 2011 6:40am
Quoting FXMindset
Not from there,I have his Manual Lesson Book
Which one? This one? If not, may you share?

BTW, I'm glad we're not a bunch of indie junkies.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Cloggie lesson on 073010.doc   198 KB | 355 downloads
  • #16,460
  • Dec 28, 2011 6:42am Dec 28, 2011 6:42am
look what i found

www.nubcake.net

AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
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