EurAnalysis

Whe have today and tommorow italy bond auction would be intresting if the ecb will show show up also keeping my eyes on gold if they purchase some bonds (if) Hope for the equities they will come otherwise they will suffer some pain anyway. Let me put a chart for the chart people myself 2012 will be another step less charts bit done with the technicals will still use them but less keeping it more simple on the chart work.





Basicaly looking to short in to that lows on a pop if whe have good auctions maybe i buy the ausie wanna see how gold react gold or ausie 1 of those 2. I am especially intrested to see how gold reacts on good auction but might obsereve it first.

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0111228156352/

Snippet:

Yen strengthens mildly today after US Treasury criticized Japan's intervention in a report to Congress. The US Treasury noted that it supported the G7 coordinated intervention to stabilize yen after devastating natural disaster back in March. However, it explicitly said that it didn't support the invention from August through November. The reported noted that the intervention operated at a time "foreign exchange market activity and risk aversion were being predominantly influenced by financial developments elsewhere in the global economy that were impacting all of the major currencies". And, yen's volatility was lower than EUR/USD while exchange markets functioned normally. Also, the report noted that yen's "real value" is "near its 15 year historical average."

Hence, the US Treasury concluded that intervention was not required and urged Japan to take " fundamental and thoroughgoing steps to increase the dynamism of the domestic economy, increase the competitiveness of Japanese firms -- including those in utilities and services -- and raise potential growth".

My reply to the US Government and the FED and please do not put me on the "Do Not Fly List" (Joke)

The Plunge Protection Team intervenes in the market daily.

The FED lends money to their friends around the world in the trillions of dollars. The former Goldman Sachs executives such as well you know who you are talk about a Strong Dollar policy while now at least it is not talked about as you destroy the value of the US Dollar in order to inflate away your debts that have become the debt of future generations of US citizens.

The US Dollar is backed by paper. Bernake and the 12 private banking groups make major profits on the backs of the world.

The USA government distorts the CPI in order to cause harm to seniors by not paying them their proper pensions while taking Billions of dollars of bonus payments for themselves though the Investment Banks now called bank holding companies.

That piece I posted about Bix Weir and the Wizard of Oz is as close to reality as there is. Benny the wizard pulls the strings and the world waits for more QE in order to increase the value of Gold and reduce the value of the US Dollar.

I guess I made my point. There is no price inflation according to the US Goverment. What there is clearly shown by the price of hard assets going up in value such as Gold and Oil and Food Products to compensate for Monetary Inflation caused by the printing of money out of thin air.

I think it is time to end my comments since for the moment the status quo will hold until it does not.

What a mess they have created with their destruction of Free Markets.

http://www.actionforex.com/analysis/...0111228156338/

A great article explaining LTRO or as I call it Benny's Tarp for Europe with electronic dollars freshly created.

Snippet:

Last week we saw the ECB lending out to European banks and its largest refinancing operation in history. However if you look a little closer at the figures we see that it resulted in a net increase of around 200 tend to Europe

From ZeroHedge: "The first-ever 3-year liquidity operation by the ECB was an unqualified success. Banks bid for a greater-than-expected €489.2bn, making this the largest-ever single refinancing operation in the ECB's history.

However, this is not the net amount by which outstanding ECB open market operations have increased. Because banks reduced their use of the Main Refinancing Operation (MRO) by €123bn yesterday, and also the use of 3-month long-term refinancing operations (LTROs) by €111bn allotted today, the net increase is smaller.

Moreover, several banks made use of the possibility to swap out of the recent 12m LTRO that was allotted in October into the new 32-month facility (123 out of 181), to the tune of €46bn. So the net increase in outstanding open market operations is about €210b."

There is NO GOLD left at Fort Knox and there is no Wizard of Oz. However thank goodness there is a Santa Claus Ho Ho Ho !!!

That must be a old post, I don't exactly know which post you mean. Your reading my old posts? Don't bother yourself Probably much crap there.

I have made massive progress this year in my trading...and I hope next year in a end of december I look myself as dumb and ignorant as I look at myself year ago, this means I have evolved and year was not wasted.

PRICE ACTION VS TECHNICAL INDICATORS from Thinslice Trading.

Do Not Shoot The Messenger, Myself !!!

http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs084/...557/img/16.jpg
Forex Trading: Price Action vs Technical Indicator



Most traders are under the misconception that using technical indicators makes trading easier, the belief being that indicators represent some type of technological advancement that allows anyone to solve the mystery of which direction the market is going to move with zero market experience.
Building on that misconception, the next step is to believe the more indicators one uses the greater accuracy one can trade at. Because of these misconceptions, most folks begin and end their trading career using some mix of indicators.

Remember, 80% fail at trading and statistics show most of these failed traders are using indicators.

In order to become a successful trader, it is imperative that one not do what the 80% are doing.

The majority of indicators that are most frequently used are simply some form of a collection of pricing data that creates a numerical point and then one can plot that point across a chart so that one can see some form of price average or that point is automatically plotted on a chart in a pleasing color that the trader selects.

The problem with this is that all indicators are lagging because the numbers have to be generated first such that the formula driving the indicator can crunch those numbers and come up with a result to plot. By the time that number is derived the market has already moved on. In short, indicators tell us what has already happened. Indicators are not predicative and only tell us what the overall tendency of price movement has been.

What this means is that indicators perform best on large time frames and are better used for investing and/or buy and hold scenarios. When indicators are used on smaller time frames, for instance on an intraday basis, the changes in the direction in price happen too quickly for the indicator to alert the trader. When indicators are adjusted to supposedly work on smaller time frames, accuracy diminishes and frequent false signals occur. The trader cannot determine a false signal until after it has happened and then it is too late, by that point he has lost money.

Indicators do not perform well in highly volatile conditions or in fast moving markets. The forex market is the most volatile market on the planet. Directional bias changes frequently and rapidly. These are the two toughest conditions for indicators to consistently perform, hence the high failure rate of forex traders who rely on indicators.


The single best attribute of indicator trading is that it is an easy sell. Marketing the power of indicators by looking at after-the-fact pricing data (back-testing) lures one to believe that all they have to do is purchase the proprietary indicator package or system, turn it on, and the dollars are just going to start rolling in. You have seen the "hypothetical results". Using technology eliminates human emotions. Technology is not as error prone as human interface. The benefits that are marketed are endless and all the benefits point to "easy money".

If indicators, indicator based systems, and software based trading programs (these programs rely on the same processes that drive indicators) are so great, why are 80%-90% not able to grow their trading accounts in a positive direction using these trading tools? Why do the statistics show that the majority of traders who attempt to use these technology based trading processes always end up giving back any profits they may have gleaned on a few isolated profitable trades, and then finally quit?

The answer is simple. Eight out of 10 individuals fail to realize that to become a solid trader one has to follow the same path that any individual would follow to insure their success in any professional endeavor. They need to be trained. They need to get experience. The training takes time because they have to be exposed to various market conditions and experiences and then must learn from those experiences.

Eight out of 10 are looking for something that does not exist. If becoming a solid trader simply required you to spend some money on a class that you only had to attend one time, for a day or two or even three and then you were off making money, everyone could do it.


The reality is simple: 80% will spend anywhere from $2,000 to $10,000 dollars on average over a year or two on gimmicks and schemes that "pitch" instant money making trading opportunities, then quit with the misconception that the market is "rigged".

These folks were living in total denial, never realizing that they simply took a gambler's approach. Remember, gamblers rely on hope and luck. These folks purchased all of this trading garbage hoping that one of the products purchased would create the luck they needed to make that "fast money".
Solid traders understand that learning to trade is a skill, a skill that takes a little time to develop. The first step is learning to trade solely off of price action. Price action is the only predictive tool a trader has. By learning to interpret price action, the trader learns what conditions need to develop to place a trade. More importantly, he learns what not to trade. The solid trader would prefer to evaluate the conditions and determine a no-trading condition. The gambler always wants to be trading.

The comparisons are easy to see. There is the guy who goes into a casino with a fist full of dollars with no clear direction relying solely on hope and luck to make money versus the professional gamer who waits for high probability conditions to develop before putting money on the line.

The same reasons most fail in Las Vegas are the same reasons most folks are failed traders. They have zero discipline or commitment to take the time to properly learn what it takes to be successful at either endeavor.
The solid trader understands that price action works differently in different markets. In order to effectively trade the forex, one needs to be properly trained on how to interpret forex price action. This is why stock traders get hammered when they first attempt to trade the forex.

Eventually one realizes that price action is the only truly reliable indicator that a trader can work from. Anything else just creates additional layers of "noise" and complexities that do not generate more income.
The 20% that are successful rely on price action first, and as their individual trading styles develop, and based on what markets they trade, indicators may be used as a secondary tool. Indicators are never a primary tool.

To be in the 20%, you need to realize that whichever tool you use, price action or indicator, they both require time and experience to use effectively. The reality is, learning to trade price action is easier than learning to use technical indicators. Unfortunately, interpreting price action by many is perceived as less glamorous and mundane than having your trading platform loaded up with a multitude of colorful indicators and histograms.

The bottom line is, if you are serious about making money you will focus on what the 20% do, not what the 80% do. This means that if the tool or method is available for free, mainstream, or defies common sense, it is highly probable that it does not work and that the losing 80% are using it regularly.

There is NO LINK since it just came in my email.

Feedback and Comments are Welcome.

I trade for a living and even though Thinslice is commercial in nature the facts remain the facts whether there is agreement or not.

Of course there is more than Price Action in Forex Trading.

For myself the most important factor is the pyschological make up of the currency trader.

You cannot win trading any markets whether the Stock Market or Commodities Market or for sure the highly leverged Forex Market by trading your fears, greed and ego.

Add to that we have manipulated markets every day. The Forex Market is first and foremost a business place where inventory is bought. The second industry is the retail industry where the traders help the pros earn their Xmas Bonus.

That's the way I see it.

Now back to the Game !!!

Forming of Long candles with thin body .. it means fight is ON....

Girl, you aren't in the kitchen to calculate:

hahahahahhhahahahha


gotta love that girl, the dumber they are the easier it is to...............anyway.

120 sec=one minute twenty sec?
120sec/2= 60sec
lol

1:20 one min twenty sec
120 sec hahahahaha the : confused her

I'm pretty sure she's from your country

Good Morning

I always enjoy your posts and your point of view. Learning that we always need to learn more is part of the solution. When I first started trading even large amounts it took me awhile to discover trading EUR/USD and EUR/JPY were like trading the same pair. Once I understood what moved EUR/JPY then I stopped trading EUR/JPY and only traded EUR/USD.

That lead me to only trade USD/JPY for about a year or so as I watched it move from 118.00 all the way below 100 to where it is today.

I am now back to trading mainly EUR/USD in one direction which is down for the moment.

I wish you a sincere Happy New Year and Good Trading and Good Health.

i disagree with it , because free readily available tools do work, if you use them to compute probabilities not to decide when to buy or sell

ATR tells you what is the normal, range, average range as to understand when things are out of wack so to speak.
sma and standard deviations (2) help you see volatility and normal distribution, one needs to understand, volatility, stochastic process, Heisenberg uncertainty principle, time series analysis or simply take a statistics class

definitely sounds like an American girl California, valley girl to be exact,

Nice to meet you

Measures Level of a composite index based on 25 economic indicators; Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, around the end of the current month; FF Notes This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy over the following 6 months. The impact tends to be significant but varies from month to month;

Derived Via Combined reading of 25 economic indicators related to employment, production, new orders, consumer confidence, housing, stock prices, money supply, and interest rate spreads; Also Called KOF Leading Indicators.

News coming in one Hour and 14 Mins.

Edit: Bad in CHF may lead EUR up and could get a higher point to SELL.

you could trade the market by learning via patterns, and familiarity= subconscious mathematical processing via pattern recognition.

or you could use mathematics and statistics.


some people say keep it simple, but what is simple, complex internalized subconscious calculations?

or actual calculations written down,

i.e, price action analyst looks at candle formations and has an INTUITION, on changed price action in front of him by previous exposure to similar conditions and screen time= experience

some one might look at a candle in a more mathematical way

reference point = open
displacement=open to close
momentum= (m)(v)=p
velocity= v=d/t
wave pattern by oscillation, amplitude and magnitude calculating the retrace % for force and probable reversal and continuation.

you can look at a chart and say gee, its been selling off for a while and looks like its having trouble going down now

i can say decreased selling pressure evidenced by diminishing momentum as seen by decreased in velocity vector. Standard deviations from average normal distribution at extreme point can signal a mean reversion.


both are right

simple= internalized complex thought process

USDJPY
Mr.Market seem like test another Final Intervention for push this pair up

never fails to amaze. I love this guy .
i would really want to be more quant on some of my trading processes but this is as far i got using calculations based on PTVs (price/time vectors), and using the Pythagoras' Theorem = a2 + b2 = c2 on previous time in previous swing and apply it with price... then using Pi and square root of 2... 3... 5. i am starting to use the "fibonacci" ratio of 0.618 and 1.618 and multiplying it to several periods of time, and points in time.

thats as far as i got to beign a quant.

does the BOJ stil have cash in its pocket?

if it closes on the low i think thats too bearish for that pair to bounce. if u look at 2 previous bounces ago, price was wicky, showing significant willing buyers on that day, and the folowthrough over the next days made it even higher.

anyways just my 2 yens

ur 2 yen is worthless
Try 2 Pound

Hi Buma.. this may amaze the whole world (after Einstein Exhibit -- E=mc2)

Could u pls explain more on this a2 + b2 = c2?