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Low stress swing trading with momentum

  • #41
  • Dec 26, 2011 1:04am Dec 26, 2011 1:04am
Quoting bbakker
Wishing you much success with your thread and a prosperous 2012. Nice to see a trader on FF mainly trading of the daily timeframe.
Thank you.

I grew up I got tired of the "noise" and being married to the charts.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #42
  • Dec 26, 2011 1:47am Dec 26, 2011 1:47am
Hi Pip

Just to say i really admire your atitude to life - going to reserve the judgement for your trading () but if its a similar atitude to life then im sure I will do well scouting with you

Have a happy and propserous 2012

(Subscribed)
  • #43
  • Dec 26, 2011 1:56am Dec 26, 2011 1:56am
Hope everyone had a great weekend. Here are some of the major things I'm focused on this week. I also keep an eye on the news on CNBC TV and the equities, futures and bond markets throughout the day.


Here's a warning for those who might want to short "risk" for the next 7 trading days. The odds are stacked against you. Historically you have about a 75% chance of being wrong as the Santa Claus rally has happened in 31 of the last 41 years.


Overall the currency markets are little changed from fridays close.

Today is a bank holiday in many countries.

Italian bond auctions are in focus and will be held on wednesday and thursday and as usual lately I'm sure the markets will react to any headline risk out of Europe... Except mabey the story about French breast implant risks being debated.

I read somewhere that S&P was holding off on a decision on taking away Frances AAA rating until January and I can't find that article right now.

The economic calender is light but we do have US consumer confidence, unemployment claims and housing data this week which are all high impact reports. Chinese manufacturing PMI comes out saturday so keep that in mind if you decide to hold a position over next weekend.

Also, none of the 500 companies listed in the S&P500 are expected to announce earnings this week.

Good luck.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #44
  • Dec 26, 2011 2:07am Dec 26, 2011 2:07am
Quoting TheMonk
Hi Pip

Just to say i really admire your atitude to life - going to reserve the judgement for your trading () but if its a similar atitude to life then im sure I will do well scouting with you

Have a happy and propserous 2012

(Subscribed)
Thank you and welcome. Sit back relax and enjoy the ride. I have to warn you though, trading the daily charts is almost as boring as watching paint dry...... exept for watching the pips rack up.

Let's all have a great 2012
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #45
  • Edited 2:49am Dec 26, 2011 2:37am | Edited 2:49am
What are your thoughts on Japan and China promoting direct trading of the yen and yuan without using dollars, how this will affect USD long-term and more specifically UJ?

Boxing day news releases are always ones they are trying to get through unnoticed while everyone is getting merry during the festive season!

Here is a link to the article -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-1...any-costs.html

Many thanks!

P.S. I see that you already have a UJ bullish sentiment in your profile!
  • #46
  • Dec 26, 2011 3:22am Dec 26, 2011 3:22am
Quoting bbakker
What are your thoughts on Japan and China promoting direct trading of the yen and yuan without using dollars, how this will affect USD long-term and more specifically UJ?

Boxing day news releases are always ones they are trying to get through unnoticed while everyone is getting merry during the festive season!

Here is a link to the article -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-1...any-costs.html

Many thanks!

P.S. I see that you already have a UJ bullish sentiment...
Thanks,

Missed that and it's big news. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out. I think it will also affect the US bond market. Thinking of it from a supply and demand perspective I see less demand for the US$ and US bonds which should weaken the dollar and drive US bond yields up. Could make the Yen stronger if China really starts stuffing it in their reserves which would make the UJ pair go even lower and piss off the Japanese.

UJ is one of the pairs I don't like to trade exept to go long when I think they will intervene and they are screaming about it everytime it's near historic lows which is the basis of my sentiment. I don't see this pair really starting to move until everyone is get's off the safe haven Yen train. I think a rally in the EJ cross will likely be the driver to finally move the UJ pair higher.

EUR/CHF is also a pair I will only go long whe price gets close to 1.20/1.21
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #47
  • Dec 26, 2011 6:48am Dec 26, 2011 6:48am
Hey PK, Glad to see you have become trend setter. I will definitely become your trend follower. This is just the place for me. As an ivy league graduate with Democratic AND Communist sympathies, this may well become my new home.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #48
  • Dec 26, 2011 9:18am Dec 26, 2011 9:18am
Got a question on your strategy,im getting the picture why u enter,but im totally lost on why and when u exit your trades?care to explain?
  • #49
  • Dec 26, 2011 10:50am Dec 26, 2011 10:50am
Quoting AaronWard
Hey PK, Glad to see you have become trend setter. I will definitely become your trend follower. This is just the place for me. As an ivy league graduate with Democratic AND Communist sympathies, this may well become my new home.
WTF......... Oh Helllllllllllllllll no!!!!!!! We already have a big White House full of that crap I can't get rid of fast enough. But that's OK, I do have a non expiring hunting permit.

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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #50
  • Dec 26, 2011 11:15am Dec 26, 2011 11:15am
Quoting PipKiller
WTF......... Oh Helllllllllllllllll no!!!!!!! We already have a big White House full of that crap I can't get rid of fast enough. But that's OK, I do have a non expiring hunting permit.

Attachment
Just the warm welcome I was hoping for
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #51
  • Dec 26, 2011 11:16am Dec 26, 2011 11:16am
Quoting sandyhill
Got a question on your strategy,im getting the picture why u enter,but im totally lost on why and when u exit your trades?care to explain?
I exit or reverse for the same reasons I enter: Momentum turns against me. It could be the technicals, a geopolitical event, huge natural disaster, economic data that either exceeded expectations or completely missed expectations or any other reason the markets decide to turn and go the other way.

I do not blindly follow a bunch of indicators on my charts. I trade daily TF so everyone will have to wait until I add or remove positions to see my reasons for entering and exiting positions. I may be in the positions I'm in for another week or so or have to cut them loose tonight if sometihng bad happens todayRight now it's time to let my positions run as far as they can.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #52
  • Dec 26, 2011 11:22am Dec 26, 2011 11:22am
Quoting AaronWard
Just the warm welcome I was hoping for
LOL

Thought I was going to have to start calling you Cupcake jr. and give you Das Boot
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #53
  • Dec 26, 2011 5:44pm Dec 26, 2011 5:44pm
I see a couple opportunities and have taken positions in them. Risk for each pair is a 300 pip mental stop loss which is roughly 3% of capitol risked for each pair. Exit will be when momentum and risk appetite turns against me or I hit my maximim loss for the pair. Until then it's time to sit back, relax and enjoy the ride..... let them run, there is no need to yank them early just because they are in profit.


AUDNZD Long

Technicals: Price has been unable to get below the demand zone highlighted. Price has closed above Ichimoku cloud and the THV3 fast trix has turned up.

Fundamentals: Thin holiday trade with a 75% chance of the santa clause rally. The lack of data and headline risk during the holidays should help risk appetite. Aussie interest rates are higher than the Kiwi. Even though Kiwi is the riskier currency, Aussie is preffered in a risk on environment because of the interest rate difference. Money seeks yield. Also we have the China Japan currency pact, this should be a positive for Asia and other emerging markets

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EURGBP Long

Technicals: Price has pulled out of the demand zone highlighted. It is also pulling off the lower bollenger band after a parabolic move south, and price should return to it's mean. The THV3 fast trix has turned up and the slow trix and SSL bar is starting to show positive

Fundamentals: The Pound is the safe haven currency in this pair and the thin holiday trade with a 75% chance of the santa clause rally. The lack of data and headline risk during the holidays should help risk appetite. The Euro has been heavily shorted any big risk on rally in this thin trade may send the Euro sharply higher in a short squeeze.

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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #54
  • Dec 26, 2011 10:48pm Dec 26, 2011 10:48pm
I live in NY, but i have a house right up the road from you in Wilson.
Look at something long enough, you will eventually get it.
  • #55
  • Dec 26, 2011 11:30pm Dec 26, 2011 11:30pm
PK!! dude i clicked on ur link in your sig! Ill def be subcribed in here... great stuff my man... you work on a little shorter TF's than me... but do pretty much the exact same thing I do!

keep up the good work brother
  • #56
  • Dec 27, 2011 3:24am Dec 27, 2011 3:24am
Quoting traco1
I live in NY, but i have a house right up the road from you in Wilson.
Hello Neighbor
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #57
  • Dec 27, 2011 3:26am Dec 27, 2011 3:26am
Quoting PipKiller
Hello Neighbor

I will follow ur thread as well.
Look at something long enough, you will eventually get it.
  • #58
  • Dec 27, 2011 3:58am Dec 27, 2011 3:58am
Quoting Wulfgar
PK!! dude i clicked on ur link in your sig! Ill def be subcribed in here... great stuff my man... you work on a little shorter TF's than me... but do pretty much the exact same thing I do!

keep up the good work brother
Welcome and thank you. Good to see a couple position traders in here to keep me straight.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #59
  • Edited 7:04am Dec 27, 2011 5:02am | Edited 7:04am
US consumer confidence data out today at 10am est

ADD: Number is 64.5 much better than the 58.5 expected. This is risk positive

No major news on the wires yet.


Futures markets are mixed this morning with no clear direction of money flow yet

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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #60
  • Dec 27, 2011 11:02am Dec 27, 2011 11:02am
Quoting PipKiller
I see a couple opportunities and have taken positions in them.

EURGBP Long

Technicals: Price has pulled out of the demand zone highlighted. It is also pulling off the lower bollenger band after a parabolic move south, and price should return to it's mean. The THV3 fast trix has turned up and the slow trix and SSL bar is starting to show positive

Fundamentals: The Pound is the safe haven currency in this pair and the thin holiday trade with a 75% chance of the santa clause rally. The lack of data and headline risk during the holidays should...
Thanks for sharing your method.

How do you determne stops for a low volatility pair like EURGBP? 300 seems a bit much there.
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