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  • #821
  • Dec 14, 2011 5:38pm Dec 14, 2011 5:38pm
Back in UJ again following 4HR BUOB - was an opportunity to go long based on 2hr buob breakout off 78 level and retest of the RN as support.
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  • #822
  • Dec 14, 2011 5:40pm Dec 14, 2011 5:40pm
A big day tomorrow for the CHF!
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  • #823
  • Dec 14, 2011 5:53pm Dec 14, 2011 5:53pm
Too busy to take this one myself (It's the holiday season coming up afterall -2012 plans need to be made and set in motion), but the breakout pattern was clear - thus we had a bias for a trade.

We then had a 2HR BUOB closing above the RN and S/R - more confirmation to expect price to now head higher - entry on the retrace to test the RN as support was the obvious entry level (just like the the breakout off 78 on UJ).
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  • #824
  • Dec 15, 2011 4:15am Dec 15, 2011 4:15am
Quoting lovejoy80
A big day tomorrow for the CHF!
The SNB did the 'logical' thing given the Eurozone woes...been a profitable pair for me off late and am back in again - see tweets for reasoning.

Also shorted UCHF - technical reasoning and of course with a short bias due to the logical outcome of the SNB announcement. I also have a slight bullish risk sentiment bias today too which of course is supportive of a fall in UCHF.
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  • #825
  • Dec 17, 2011 6:29am Dec 17, 2011 6:29am
Quoting lovejoy80
The SNB did the 'logical' thing given the Eurozone woes...been a profitable pair for me off late and am back in again - see tweets for reasoning.

Also shorted UCHF - technical reasoning and of course with a short bias due to the logical outcome of the SNB announcement. I also have a slight bullish risk sentiment bias today too which of course is supportive of a fall in UCHF.
Trade update:

Took remaining profit on UCHF trade, didn't add any more on the break of the daily BEOB - technically it was heading straight into support and had some serious doubts as to whether it would move in the same vein as the previous day - as I stated on the PF CADCHF was the best bar to trade if wanting to trade one of the CHF daily bars.

Took a partial loss on ECHF trade when price closed below the support level. Back to reassessing from a technical perspective, fundamental bias remains firmly bullish over the medium term (unless Euro implodes!).

Went long AU as well as other USD majors Wednesday night as expected some sort of retracements against the recent trends. Had some BE's on some pairs and winners on the others, AU was the best result.

Lastly, shorted GNZD because of the big 4hr BEOB closing below a daily S/R level. Rising TL was a 'danger' but chose to ignore it due to the strength of the bar and the momentum behind it (i.e. my FLS was below the TL @ the 2.0450 area). I cut the trade for a small loss when price displayed a complete lack of momentum in the next two 4hr bars. Price then fell and didn't stop until it hit the 50%+S/R technical confluence - sometimes this business can be frustrating! lol
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  • #826
  • Dec 20, 2011 3:59am Dec 20, 2011 3:59am
Trading books have been shut for the year now, so no more trades for me until the New Year (unless I see some longer term positional trades I want to get into). Erratic price action and low liquidity (periods of low momentum followed by sharp impulsive moves are classic signs of low liquidity) means it's time for me to enjoy the Xmas festivities.

The following were the technical setups on my immediate watchlist.

Silver - FTB around 31.00.
CJ - FTB around 75.75
CHFJPY - FTB around 83.45.
Gold - FTB around 1677.
UCHF - Technical Confluence (FTB+TL+Fibs) around 0.9300
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  • #827
  • Dec 20, 2011 7:56am Dec 20, 2011 7:56am
Quoting lovejoy80
Trading books have been shut for the year now, so no more trades for me until the New Year (unless I see some longer term positional trades I want to get into). Erratic price action and low liquidity (periods of low momentum followed by sharp impulsive moves are classic signs of low liquidity) means it's time for me to enjoy the Xmas festivities.

The following were the technical setups on my immediate watchlist.

Silver - FTB around 31.00.
CJ - FTB around 75.75
CHFJPY - FTB around 83.45.
Gold - FTB around 1677.
UCHF - Technical Confluence...
Thanks LJ for the charts and ongoing contributions to FF.

Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
  • #828
  • Dec 20, 2011 4:14pm Dec 20, 2011 4:14pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Trading books have been shut for the year now, so no more trades for me until the New Year (unless I see some longer term positional trades I want to get into). Erratic price action and low liquidity (periods of low momentum followed by sharp impulsive moves are classic signs of low liquidity) means it's time for me to enjoy the Xmas festivities.

The following were the technical setups on my immediate watchlist.

Silver - FTB around 31.00.
CJ - FTB around 75.75
CHFJPY - FTB around 83.45.
Gold - FTB around 1677.
UCHF - Technical Confluence...
Took the UCHF trade (as I think a lot of supply/demand traders would have done) as it's more of a positional trade for me and am still in it, though erratic price action must be expected going forward now and CHF is certainly not immune from this at the best of times.

From a technical perspective if you're not in this trade still or had a SL hit then you really need to look at how you assess your SL placement and your trade management - all the information you need is on the chart (we had a detailed discussion about this over the weekend on the forum and today in the trading room), remember the setup is a daily TF setup.
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  • #829
  • Dec 20, 2011 4:20pm Dec 20, 2011 4:20pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Took the UCHF trade (as I think a lot of supply/demand traders would have done) as it's more of a positional trade for me and am still in it, though erratic price action must be expected going forward now and CHF is certainly not immune from this at the best of times.

From a technical perspective if you're not in this trade still or had a SL hit then you really need to look at how you assess your SL placement and your trade management - all the information you need is on the chart (we had a detailed discussion about this over the weekend on the...
Oh...and if you know how market/risk sentiment in the market works you'll find a confluence factor elswhere that indicated this area was going to hold.
  • #830
  • Dec 20, 2011 4:28pm Dec 20, 2011 4:28pm
Quoting MinceMeat
Thanks LJ for the charts and ongoing contributions to FF.

Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
Thanks for the message, merry xmas and happy NY to you too
  • #831
  • Edited 5:20am Dec 21, 2011 3:42am | Edited 5:20am
I don't post much about price patterns but it does form part of my trading...here is a couple of good setups from yesterday.

1. NU - Bullish Flag Pattern - the pattern itself suggests price is going to breakout long, price then closes above the flag forming a 2hr BUOB in the process - notice how price quickly formed a base above the 0.7615 level.

2. ACAD - Falling Channel - you could tell that a bullish breakout was more likely because:

(a) price was unable to form a lower low
(b) the strength and momentum of the recent uptrend was strong (4 good bullish bars in a row)
(c) we just had poor CAD economic data

...not hard to tell which direction price was likely going to breakout of this channel is it (I even called it in the trading room just before the 4hr bar close).

To add further confirmation we then had a 15min BUOB closing above the channel.
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  • #832
  • Edited 6:54am Dec 21, 2011 6:01am | Edited 6:54am
Quoting lovejoy80
Took the UCHF trade (as I think a lot of supply/demand traders would have done) as it's more of a positional trade for me and am still in it, though erratic price action must be expected going forward now and CHF is certainly not immune from this at the best of times.

From a technical perspective if you're not in this trade still or had a SL hit then you really need to look at how you assess your SL placement and your trade management - all the information you need is on the chart (we had a detailed discussion about this over the weekend on the...
Got stopped out in the end. I missed something crucial when evaluating the trade last night - technically moving the SL to below the daily low when price closed above the RN+S/R was prudent, but I forgot about the LTRO auction this morning and the likely volatility this would produce. Price indeed held the area I placed my original SL below (the 4hr S/R + 61% fib). 0.7R lost.

Also decided it's pointless sitting here not trading when there are some tradable setups still around...so still trading, mostly to demonstrate some points to go with the material on my forum and of course low risk (I decrease risk from the start of December until end of January).

Let's see how these turn out...
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  • #833
  • Dec 21, 2011 7:40am Dec 21, 2011 7:40am
Quoting lovejoy80
Got stopped out in the end. I missed something crucial when evaluating the trade last night - technically moving the SL to below the daily low when price closed above the RN+S/R was prudent, but I forgot about the LTRO auction this morning and the likely volatility this would produce. Price indeed held the area I placed my original SL below (the 4hr S/R + 61% fib). 0.7R lost.

Also decided it's pointless sitting here not trading when there are some tradable setups still around...so still trading, mostly to demonstrate some points to go with the...
Taken some profit and moved stops.

UCHF working out exactly how I planned it would...it's a fine line sometimes and the market is certainly good at reminding you what could have been!
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  • #834
  • Dec 21, 2011 5:11pm Dec 21, 2011 5:11pm
Update on recent trades:

1. EAUD - took final profit when price retested a former breakout area.
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  • #835
  • Dec 21, 2011 5:13pm Dec 21, 2011 5:13pm
2. GAUD - took 50% profit, hiding the rest below an S/R area.
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  • #836
  • Dec 21, 2011 5:14pm Dec 21, 2011 5:14pm
3. AU - took 70% profit, leaving the rest to see if 1.0150-55 area can hold as resistance.
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  • #837
  • Dec 21, 2011 5:20pm Dec 21, 2011 5:20pm
4. GCHF - 50% profit taken at area shown, SL moved up to below the bar that successfully retested the former TL and S/R as support. TP set at previous daily high area.
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  • #838
  • Dec 30, 2011 9:11am Dec 30, 2011 9:11am
Quoting lovejoy80
2. GAUD - took 50% profit, hiding the rest below an S/R area.
For completeness here are the results of the remaining portions of the trades in the previous posts.
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  • #839
  • Dec 30, 2011 9:12am Dec 30, 2011 9:12am
Quoting lovejoy80
3. AU - took 70% profit, leaving the rest to see if 1.0150-55 area can hold as resistance.
AU
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  • #840
  • Dec 30, 2011 9:13am Dec 30, 2011 9:13am
Quoting lovejoy80
4. GCHF - 50% profit taken at area shown, SL moved up to below the bar that successfully retested the former TL and S/R as support. TP set at previous daily high area.
GCHF - came very close it hitting TP before dropping, such is life!
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