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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #15,701
  • Dec 20, 2011 11:40am Dec 20, 2011 11:40am
Quoting redteamgo
Agreed. I am holding back my heavy selling for the next wave in the next day or two before Christmas. After that, people are on vacation.. years over.

The remainder of the year should be nice and bullish.. but by the end of 1Q12, we are going to see some nasty earnings with high probability of a credit crunch. Unless, of course, the ECB just buys it all and tucks it away into their BS for another decade.

i suppose the take-away is that diluting the U$ is bullish for the euro but diluting the euro is also bullish for the euro
That's probably exactly how the markets will react to Euro QE.

I personally don't care which way they take it. I'm going to stuff my pockets with $$$.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #15,702
  • Dec 20, 2011 11:44am Dec 20, 2011 11:44am
Quoting PipKiller
That's probably exactly how the markets will react to Euro QE.

I personally don't care which way they take it. I'm going to stuff my pockets with $$$.
exactly, i agree. its ridiculous but my job isn't to question the fundamentally flawed movements, its to make good trades resulting in more money to buy another ivory back-scratcher!
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #15,703
  • Dec 20, 2011 11:49am Dec 20, 2011 11:49am
Quoting nyfx718
Think about this from a tax perspective, at current prices, long term longs are heavily in the red versus long term shorts. They year is almost over and its more in their tax interest of those long term longs to close their positions versus long term shorts. I think we could see a significant further run down in price because those longs are going to want those write offs instead of losing it by holding into next year, while the shorts won't want to pay gains and would most likely hold those shorts into the new year and close out and take profits...
You may be right, but I don't see why a trader would want to book losses and leave the profits at risk when their pay is based on performance.

Anyway, I'm still holding out for 1.32 area before shorting again. There is unfinished business up there and the market knows it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #15,704
  • Dec 20, 2011 11:51am Dec 20, 2011 11:51am
Quoting PipKiller
I think you may be correct. I'm expecting more short covering these last 2 weeks of the year.
ditto
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #15,705
  • Dec 20, 2011 11:59am Dec 20, 2011 11:59am
Euro relief ahead of critical ECB LTRO tomorrow

We’re seeing the EURUSD move higher out of the microscopic range of previous days, but the resistance ceiling is fairly low and we have a key test ahead with tomorrow’s ECB 3-year LTRO results.

More Euro relief today as the market continues to enthuse about this week’s ECB 3-year LTRO operation today and tomorrow and its possible salubrious effect on EU sovereign spreads, which tightened rather sharply in places once again in today’s trade. Encouragement for the idea that the ECB operations will have the desired effect came with today’s Spanish bill auctions, which were oversubscribed and saw Spain able to exceed the maximum auction target by a wide margin. Further support came from a better than expected IFO reading from Germany – the second marginal rise in a row, if not a changer of the negative trend. Still, any resilience in an industry survey like this is rather remarkable given the widespread doom and gloom sentiment on EU growth in the near term.
Also boosting risk appetite and thus punishing the USD was very strong US housing starts and building permits data for November. More on that below.

Riksbank lowers rate
Most expected the Riksbank to lower rates by 25 bps today and Sweden’s central bank responded with the expected cut. The initial reaction saw EURSEK slightly higher before the market realized that forward interest rate expectations actually rose a few bps in the wake of the statement and then EURSEK swooned once again – to its lowest level (well below the symbolic 9.00 level) in over 3 months. By later in the day, Sweden’s 2-year swap rate was a full 7 bps higher from this morning’s lows before the Riksbank announcement. The accompanying statement was fairly negative, as both inflation and growth expectations were lowered very slightly and considerable uncertainty on the outlook from external factors was expressed. Meanwhile, the expected path of the Riksbanks’ policy rate fell to 1.7% for 2012 vs. 2.2% previously. Still, that’s only 5 bps below the actual current rate of 1.75% and the market was perhaps fearing a large downgrade of expectations. The idea that the SEK can continue to shine as a safe haven appears alive and well after today’s performance, though a sterner test for that thesis would be a sustained three day sell-off in global equities, for example. (EURSEK bounced, if in a bit of a dead cat way, as equities were hit with steep losses on Dec 12-14)

US Housing Starts
US Housing Starts were very strong in November, notching a 685k reading on an annualized basis and making it appear that starts remain in a gentle uptrend beginning around mid-year and thus encouraging the view that at least housing won’t be a drag on US economic growth in coming months/quarters. Since November 2008, only one month showed a marginally stronger reading than today’s reading (April 2010). The Building Permits number for November was similarly strong.

Looking ahead
Tonight, look out for Japan’s latest Trade Balance data, which is tending lower and has been in deficit for months on end on an adjusted basis. The JPY seems to be shrugging off the North Korean succession nervousness here (fully justified as it is impossible to quantify the risks until something actually happens), but can it shrug off the sovereign debt load if Japan becomes a chronic debtor nation, particularly if Chinese demand slows in coming months? So far, bond markets have calmed again after a recent spike higher in yields on longer Japanese bonds, but the long term sustainability question won’t go away anytime soon.

Tomorrow we get the results of the first ECB 3-year LTRO, which will tell us how hungry banks have been to borrow from the ECB for longer periods and possibly also indicating an appetite for using this facility to buy EU sovereign debt and theoretically keep the debt crisis at bay for another little while. We discussed this and the ongoing wrangling over what concessions the US Congress may try to extract from the Obama administration for continuing with the 2% payroll tax into the New Year. An FTalphaville entry today suggests that EUR 360 billion might be a starting point for LTRO expectations.

Otherwise, it is important to remember the shaky political backdrop even as the various sovereign debt measures in the EU have improved rather sharply here. As well, it behoves us to remember that markets are thin and could remain jumpy until we get back down to more normal conditions in the New Year. EURUSD at 1.3150/1.3210 is the critical resistance zone for today’s move.
Be careful out there.

Economic Data Highlights
Germany Jan. GfK Consumer Confidence Survey out at 5.6 vs. 5.5 expected and 5.6 in Dec.
Germany Nov. Producer Prices out at +0.1% MoM and +5.2% YoY as expected and vs. +5.3% in Oct.
Switzerland Nov. Trade Balance out at +3.0B vs. +2.0B expected and +2.15B in Oct.
Riksbank lowered interest rate 25 bps to 1.75% as expected
Germany Dec. IFO Business Climate out at 107.2 vs. 106.0 expected and 106.6 in Nov.
UK Dec. CBI Reported Sales out at +9 vs. -12 expected and -19 in Nov.
Canada Nov. Consumer Price Index out at +0.1% MoM and +2.9% as expected and vs. +2.9% YoY in Oct.
Canada Nov. CPI Core out at +0.1% MoM and +2.1% YoY vs. +0.1%/+2.2% expected, respectively and vs. +2.1% YoY in Oct.
US Nov. Housing Starts out at 685k vs. 635k expected and 627k in Oct.
US Nov. Building Permits out at 681k vs. 635k expected and 644k in Oct.

Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
Sweden Riksbank’s Oeberg to Speak (1615)
US Weekly API Crude Oil and Product Inventories (2130)
New Zealand Q3 Current Account Balance (2145)
Japan Nov. Merchandise Trade Balance (2350)
UK Dec. GfK Consumer Confidence (0001)
New Zealand Nov. Credit Card Spending (0200)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #15,706
  • Edited 12:55pm Dec 20, 2011 12:12pm | Edited 12:55pm
Quoting PipTrapper
You may be right, but I don't see why a trader would want to book losses and leave the profits at risk when their pay is based on performance.

Anyway, I'm still holding out for 1.32 area before shorting again. There is unfinished business up there and the market knows it.
I'll meet you at the station when the train pulls in Unlike you, I'll ride this lady in any direction.... I'm such a whore

Inserted Video



A lot of technicals coming together around 1.32.

Channel and trendline resistance, Bollenger band mean and close to the 23.6 fib of the move from 1.4248 - 1.2945

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #15,707
  • Dec 20, 2011 12:25pm Dec 20, 2011 12:25pm
Quoting PipKiller
I'll meet you at the station when the train pulls in Unlike you, I'll ride this lady in any direction.... I'm such a whore

A lot of technicals coming together around 1.32.

Channel and trendline resistance, Bollenger band mean and close to the 23.6 fib of the move from 1.4248 - 1.2945

Attachment
Makes for a much better climax...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #15,708
  • Dec 20, 2011 1:06pm Dec 20, 2011 1:06pm
toxic baby price moves down ya to the hoot hoot hoot!

dow doing well. as long as im priced in with the smart moeny i am fine.

thank you venus and smart money

dont be fooled standard deviation of aspects-wise we got around 4 aspects today. daily average is around 8 the lower the number the greater effect it has (gulp) and take into effect the most strong aspect. it aint starting yet in 7 hours we got another destructo mania this time from jupiter. venus square jupiter in 8 hours. thats somewhere in europe session i believe.

watch the hell out, look at the venus square saturn, price rose... this might create a reversal... OR create momentum up due to lagging nature, but doubt that.

just watch PA and levels. time will come later.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,709
  • Dec 20, 2011 1:07pm Dec 20, 2011 1:07pm
It was just moving too slow now so I closed out my short for like 3 pip gain, will wait for later and see if it goes higher and re short, however, knowing my luck, it will now drop 200 pips lol
  • #15,710
  • Dec 20, 2011 1:26pm Dec 20, 2011 1:26pm
If I had gotten my short at 1.3130ish, then I woulda still been holding it, but there is always the possibility it can go right back up into that range before going down again, so I'll look to reset my short higher.

As for taxes, regardless of perception, the overall real effect on money in your pocket is better to take your deductions and minimize what you have to give uncle same and let your winners run, possibly closing it out beginning of January and not have to pay taxes on it till the following year. No one is saying to lose money on purpose, but if you happen to have losses on paper come year end, might as well let it count for something and reduce your taxable income. ... but yes on the flip side, professional traders might be more concerned about their perceived performance and try to fake they doing better than they really are and end up having the sh*t taxed out of them, actually hurting the firm in the long run. But to each his own.

Quoting nyfx718
It was just moving too slow now so I closed out my short for like 3 pip gain, will wait for later and see if it goes higher and re short, however, knowing my luck, it will now drop 200 pips lol
  • #15,711
  • Dec 20, 2011 1:28pm Dec 20, 2011 1:28pm
I find it interesting you use astrology to trade forex. How do you do that? Where can I learn about that? You seem to have a lot of success with it? Assuming you are using actual technicals also and just use that stuff as an overall guide? Planetary alignments and the such I find interesting especially when we get tornadoes earthquakes etc when those things happen, too much for just coincidence.

Quoting bumapatria
toxic baby price moves down ya to the hoot hoot hoot!

dow doing well. as long as im priced in with the smart moeny i am fine.

thank you venus and smart money

dont be fooled standard deviation of aspects-wise we got around 4 aspects today. daily average is around 8 the lower the number the greater effect it has (gulp) and take into effect the most strong aspect. it aint starting yet in 7 hours we got another destructo mania this time from jupiter. venus square jupiter in 8 hours. thats somewhere in europe session i believe.

watch the...
  • #15,712
  • Dec 20, 2011 1:32pm Dec 20, 2011 1:32pm
Quoting nyfx718
If I had gotten my short at 1.3130ish...
be patient.. you will probably have a chance to have an even better entry. tomorrow, thurs & fri are going to be very interesting days during the london session if youre up.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #15,713
  • Dec 20, 2011 1:38pm Dec 20, 2011 1:38pm
True.

Quoting redteamgo
be patient.. you will probably have a chance to have an even better entry. tomorrow, thurs & fri are going to be very interesting days during the london session if youre up.
  • #15,714
  • Dec 20, 2011 1:40pm Dec 20, 2011 1:40pm
Closed 3%
Again am drunk - good night
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU5.png Size: 36 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #15,715
  • Dec 20, 2011 1:56pm Dec 20, 2011 1:56pm
Quoting nyfx718
I find it interesting you use astrology to trade forex. How do you do that? Where can I learn about that? You seem to have a lot of success with it? Assuming you are using actual technicals also and just use that stuff as an overall guide? Planetary alignments and the such I find interesting especially when we get tornadoes earthquakes etc when those things happen, too much for just coincidence.
yeah techs and volume comes first with price action. read Larry pesavento's book - Astro cycles is a good start for astro trading. one must read tunnel thru the air by w.d. gann. secret to the whole perspective is within. but for starters read pesavento's book is good for basics

just to say price is harmonious. its not random. i
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,716
  • Dec 20, 2011 2:06pm Dec 20, 2011 2:06pm
Quoting FXMindset
Closed 3%
Again am drunk - good night
Haha, night FX. Like your new profile pic.
  • #15,717
  • Dec 20, 2011 2:07pm Dec 20, 2011 2:07pm
Quoting Tyoon
Haha, night FX. Like your new profile pic.
Ya cute ho?
women nowdays prefer money more than true love,beware mate
Btw congrats for the 4V - you deserve it
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #15,718
  • Dec 20, 2011 2:20pm Dec 20, 2011 2:20pm
Quoting FXMindset
Btw congrats for the 4V - you deserve it
Oh hey it was PT! Thanks! I have enough vouches to start vouching the people I learn from. I hope my contributions will catch up with these vouches someday soon.

Trying my best to learn.

EDIT: still can't vouch others but hopefully I can soon.
  • #15,719
  • Dec 20, 2011 2:32pm Dec 20, 2011 2:32pm
Quoting FXMindset
Ya cute ho?
women nowdays prefer money more than true love,beware mate
Btw congrats for the 4V - you deserve it
ahhh so they go round u coz u make thousands and millions eh ?

trust me bro there WILL be that girl. no doubt.

dont turn gay in between u will find her.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,720
  • Dec 20, 2011 2:53pm Dec 20, 2011 2:53pm
Ok, now I'm convinced with this thing literally not moving for like 2 hours, no one should be short right now unless you have a much higher entry price where u don't really care if it swings 50 to 70 pips against u. Have to look for a short reentry over night tonight. Hopefully. That close to 2am mark EST? But we may get it during asian persusian session?
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