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  • #576,241
  • Dec 19, 2011 2:29am Dec 19, 2011 2:29am
I'm bearish except one thing troubles me -- what I'm reading about there being "record-setting" short positions on the Euro right now.

If we're at record levels, doesn't that suggest that everyone who can go short has gone short? At which point a reversal could occur and more people than ever stand to have their stops hit?

I'm short recently at 3071 so I hope not. But sentiment extremes can be trigger points for reversals -- or signals of a major sustained move. Which will it be?
Channeling profits from the fractal universe.
  • #576,242
  • Dec 19, 2011 2:36am Dec 19, 2011 2:36am
Quoting Wavesurfer
I'm bearish except one thing troubles me -- what I'm reading about there being "record-setting" short positions on the Euro right now.

If we're at record levels, doesn't that suggest that everyone who can go short has gone short? At which point a reversal could occur and more people than ever stand to have their stops hit?

I'm short recently at 3071 so I hope not. But sentiment extremes can be trigger points for reversals -- or signals of a major sustained move. Which will it be?
i was short and have wanted to get back in, well see i am trying to short a bounce/retrace
  • #576,243
  • Dec 19, 2011 2:42am Dec 19, 2011 2:42am
Quoting Wavesurfer
I'm bearish except one thing troubles me -- what I'm reading about there being "record-setting" short positions on the Euro right now.

If we're at record levels, doesn't that suggest that everyone who can go short has gone short? At which point a reversal could occur and more people than ever stand to have their stops hit?

I'm short recently at 3071 so I hope not. But sentiment extremes can be trigger points for reversals -- or signals of a major sustained move. Which will it be?
well that is a whole can of worms right there. Difficult for anyone to know the impacts because there are so many factors in play but;

1. I don't believe everything I read especially the speculative comments and this is an unregulated market so difficult to know for sure if it is at record levels. it might be for some banks but not others etc.

2. Price action in the last tweleve months has seen the euro much lower so the scope to move down or up definately exists if you look at larger TF.
  • #576,244
  • Dec 19, 2011 2:44am Dec 19, 2011 2:44am
Quoting Wavesurfer
I'm bearish except one thing troubles me -- what I'm reading about there being "record-setting" short positions on the Euro right now.

If we're at record levels, doesn't that suggest that everyone who can go short has gone short? At which point a reversal could occur and more people than ever stand to have their stops hit?

I'm short recently at 3071 so I hope not. But sentiment extremes can be trigger points for reversals -- or signals of a major sustained move. Which will it be?
Yup, you got it..too many shorts..eu will go up...1.3050 target
entry - 1.29250 s/l 200 pips
  • #576,245
  • Dec 19, 2011 2:46am Dec 19, 2011 2:46am
Quoting princearab
Major currency pairs with option expiries for the NY cut 10am (1500 GMT) today

EUR/USD - 1.3000
GBP/USD - 1.5500
USD/JPY - 77.80, 77.95, 78.00
AUD/USD - 0.9950
These numbers are very important numbers, were tradable last week also, nice spotting
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #576,246
  • Dec 19, 2011 2:46am Dec 19, 2011 2:46am
+35pips right in the morning, well good morning to me! My trading has gotten zillion times better since I stopped listening to people and started using my own brain.
  • #576,247
  • Dec 19, 2011 2:48am Dec 19, 2011 2:48am
Quoting govno
+35pips right in the morning, well good morning to me! My trading has gotten zillion times better since I stopped listening to people and started using my own brain.
  • #576,248
  • Dec 19, 2011 2:57am Dec 19, 2011 2:57am
Quoting Wavesurfer
I'm bearish except one thing troubles me -- what I'm reading about there being "record-setting" short positions on the Euro right now.

If we're at record levels, doesn't that suggest that everyone who can go short has gone short? At which point a reversal could occur and more people than ever stand to have their stops hit?

I'm short recently at 3071 so I hope not. But sentiment extremes can be trigger points for reversals -- or signals of a major sustained move. Which will it be?
Really true..when there's no sellers left then the big guy start taking profit (close the sell meaning buy eu ?)..eu start goin' up leave the herd to hold & wait for their stops got hit..eu move higher & higher & higher ..then suddenly the herd start to buy just when the big boy close their long position..
  • #576,249
  • Dec 19, 2011 3:00am Dec 19, 2011 3:00am
very slow ranging market. dull and lifeless. either go in, and risk a few to scalp a few, or stay out
  • #576,250
  • Dec 19, 2011 3:04am Dec 19, 2011 3:04am
Exactly what I am doing. Scalping... but in the short side only
  • #576,251
  • Dec 19, 2011 3:06am Dec 19, 2011 3:06am
Quoting MaxDoom
well that is a whole can of worms right there. Difficult for anyone to know the impacts because there are so many factors in play but;

1. I don't believe everything I read especially the speculative comments and this is an unregulated market so difficult to know for sure if it is at record levels. it might be for some banks but not others etc.

2. Price action in the last tweleve months has seen the euro much lower so the scope to move down or up definately exists if you look at larger TF.
Exactly. I look to the monthly TFs for guidance and see us pushing below 1.18 in 2012.
Channeling profits from the fractal universe.
  • #576,252
  • Dec 19, 2011 3:06am Dec 19, 2011 3:06am
eyes on 2951/35
  • #576,253
  • Dec 19, 2011 3:11am Dec 19, 2011 3:11am
Quoting AmaniLove
Exactly what I am doing. Scalping... but in the short side only
y no longs? there were longs today. since it started bottom 2960s there has been equal opportunity both sides. this hasnt changed just yet.

i can understand the hesitation on the longs- too much fundamental weak, but if you just trade charts, such fundamentals are 'noise'
  • #576,254
  • Dec 19, 2011 3:19am Dec 19, 2011 3:19am
Quoting Halba
y no longs? there were longs today. since it started bottom 2960s there has been equal opportunity both sides. this hasnt changed just yet.

i can understand the hesitation on the longs- too much fundamental weak, but if you just trade charts, such fundamentals are 'noise'
you might not care about fundies but some of this stuff due out is highly likely to drive the euro trend for 2012.

LONDON -Non-core euro-zone government bonds were little changed Monday, with the exception of Belgium, but market participants were keeping a close watch on any possible further moves by rating firms after a flurry of rating actions after Friday's close.

Moody's Investors Service downgraded the Kingdom of Belgium's government bond rating two notches to Aa3 from Aa1 and, more worryingly, kept the country on negative outlook.

Ratings firm Fitch placed Belgium, Spain, Slovenia, Italy, Ireland and Cyprus on negative watch, while promising to complete its review by the end of January. Fitch also affirmed France's triple-A rating but placed the country on negative review.

"S&P however remain conspicuously silent having threatened on December 5 to downgrade 15 of the 17 euro-zone members should the December 9 summit disappoint," noted Rabobank, adding that unless euro-zone finance ministers make good on their pledge to bolster the International Monetary Fund's firepower with EUR200 billion in bilateral loans, "a slew of S&P downgrades look much more likely."
  • #576,255
  • Dec 19, 2011 3:40am Dec 19, 2011 3:40am
Brent Oil gap is nearly closed 120 pip , is crunch time for all ladies bears, time to get to work or die
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #576,256
  • Dec 19, 2011 3:50am Dec 19, 2011 3:50am
all a bit slow stop and orders in place

I am off to get all xmasy
  • #576,257
  • Dec 19, 2011 3:50am Dec 19, 2011 3:50am
Quoting AmaniLove
Exactly what I am doing. Scalping... but in the short side only
Very sensible idea - and exactly what I am looking at doing.
  • #576,258
  • Dec 19, 2011 3:54am Dec 19, 2011 3:54am

The bad debt ratio of Spain's banking sector rose for the seventh consecutive month in September and hit a fresh 16-year high, data released Monday by the Bank of Spain showed.
According to the data, 7.42% of loans held by banks were more than three months overdue for repayment in October, up from 7.16% in September. That is the highest percentage since November 1994, and contrasts with bad debt levels below 1% of all loans in the years prior to the country's 2008 property bust.
Overall, EUR131.9 billion in loans--the equivalent of around 13% of Spain's gross domestic product--were non-performing in October, a record high, and well above the EUR128.1 billion recorded in September.
As of October, Spain's banks had total of EUR1.78 trillion in loans outstanding, down from EUR1.79 trillion in September, a number that has changed little since 2008.
Lenders have been struggling to cope with steep losses on loans extended to the real-estate and construction sector, as the country tackles the deepest economic downturn in decades and an escalating debt crisis in the euro zone.



I dont understand the world anymore, so much bad news for eu and euro is still over 13.00 why that?
What does the world cost? A shit, so sell it!
  • #576,259
  • Dec 19, 2011 4:03am Dec 19, 2011 4:03am
Quoting farzadinio

The bad debt ratio of Spain's banking ... in decades and an escalating debt crisis in the euro zone.



I dont understand the world anymore, so much bad news for eu and euro is still over 13.00 why that?
hmmm, i think most of the bad news are already in the price - so they arent surprisingly bad
Pecunia non olet
  • #576,260
  • Dec 19, 2011 4:03am Dec 19, 2011 4:03am
Quoting KiwiTrada
Brent Oil gap is nearly closed 120 pip , is crunch time for all ladies bears, time to get to work or die

Also DAX did a nice move upwards within last hours. I have 5.750 and 5.790 to stop her...Italy at 6,9% and falling.

We have all around bullish sentiment there on place. Yes, still nothing special from fiber there yet. As they protect it or really no interest in december to drive it up atm.

Still holding my s at BE and going for lunch.

Good setups to all!
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