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  • #576,101
  • Dec 17, 2011 10:00am Dec 17, 2011 10:00am
Quoting Chicky
My friend, trading is an art not a science and very very far from exact science.

It's very simple if you logically look at the things. If one is seeking 20 pip profit for a risk of 1 pip and has no definite information (inside or outside) where the market would go, has 1 out of 20 chance that pa would hit the tp. (Let's fuck the exponent / power etc. for the time being).

If fx prices hardly random walk, I would have been a trillionnaire by now. I don't say they are completely random, but provide very very little edge. The great mistake people...
ps - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...25#post2954325
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #576,102
  • Dec 17, 2011 11:25am Dec 17, 2011 11:25am
Quoting Chicky
...If one is seeking 20 pip profit for a risk of 1 pip and has no definite information (inside or outside) where the market would go, has 1 out of 20 chance that pa would hit the tp....
.

YOU ARE CORRECT SIR!

My exception to your post was basically about math, and after a bit of work I see that 1/20th for the expectation value is essentially correct (exact value is 1/21).

The 1/2^20... brain fart? Too early in the morning? Either way, stupid! Sorry about that.
  • #576,103
  • Dec 17, 2011 1:31pm Dec 17, 2011 1:31pm
Quoting Tellerton
YOU ARE CORRECT SIR!

My exception to your post was basically about math, and after a bit of work I see that 1/20th for the expectation value is essentially correct (exact value is 1/21).

The 1/2^20... brain fart? Too early in the morning? Either way, stupid! Sorry about that.
Thanks for letting me know Tellerton.

I don't know how you are doing this math but can you kindly also check if 19/1 means 18 losses in 19 trades or is it 19 losses in 20 trades? I had to think about that one before posting. Still not sure.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #576,104
  • Dec 17, 2011 2:00pm Dec 17, 2011 2:00pm
Quoting the redlion
i heard he was a lunatic, not electable, crazy, stupid, and i wondered why every time there was debate there was never any mention of him.

yet every time i heard him speak, he was the only genuine politician that made any sense, so began to watch the debates, and then dug deeper to see if there was anything that would make me not want to vote for him.

now i am a supporter of him and plan to donate
yea I had the same sequence of thoughts. He speaks very frankly and really calls thrm out. Unless hes way over his head in that he doesnt understand the sophistication in todays market then I think he speaks for thr general public. Like he said market is never wrong. The ppl in charge try to fool us to tell us an apple is an orange and ppl start to believe it thinking they are smart and know something we dont. I see ron as the guy who says the world is round as opposed to square and gets shunned for it. He is a social outcast amongst the elite and i think really hes our only hope
  • #576,105
  • Dec 17, 2011 6:39pm Dec 17, 2011 6:39pm
Quoting Chicky
Thanks for letting me know Tellerton.

I don't know how you are doing this math but can you kindly also check if 19/1 means 18 losses in 19 trades or is it 19 losses in 20 trades? I had to think about that one before posting. Still not sure.

For random walk conditions, the probability that a TP will be hit before the SL is just: SL / (SL + TP)
So in the example of your post (1 pip SL and 20 pip TP) the exact value would be 1/(1+20). I think I'm misunderstanding what you're saying with the 19/1 and so on, but expression is really easy to use.

I tried to derive this myself this morning and got stuck, then checked the web - found two treatments (not very illuminating) that address different problems, but produce the same answer if you squirrel variables around a little (so I'm pretty sure the expression is correct):
http://www.wilmott.com/messageview.c...threadid=54249
http://en.wikivisual.com/index.php/Random_walk
if I feel like I need punishment some afternoon, maybe I'll do it from scratch.

Anyway, my intuition was so unbelievably outta whack here. I'm really glad I read your post!


Well, off to bed...
  • #576,106
  • Dec 17, 2011 7:00pm Dec 17, 2011 7:00pm
Quoting mohan76
i dont have 10+ vouchers my friend . wash your eyes . i use xe for hard currency exchange i know there operation enough to make comment my friend

bwn : there is no correlation between vouch and silliness, it's human nature.
Unfortunately some people reason to be here, are to be vouched for, so their word can count for something whatever they say. Fortunately in most cases you need to actually make sense, or prove profiency in some aspects of trading to get one.
I am impressed with yout patience to reply such comment. I guess your avatar says smething about you
  • #576,107
  • Dec 17, 2011 8:25pm Dec 17, 2011 8:25pm
Quoting Chicky
Hypothetically speaking assuming a trader has no significant edge:

1. If one's Risk/Reward is 1/20 (losing 1 pip for an effort to gain 20 pips) the chances are that only 1 out of twenty trades wll be a winner.

2. If one's Risk/Reward is 1/1 (losing 1 pip for an effort to gain 1 pip) the chances are that every other trade will be winner.

3. If one's Risk/Reward is 19/1 (losing 19 pips to gain 1 pip) the chances are that 18 out of 19 trades will be winners.

Once said that, it means:

a. If one is trying to push for few pips trades...
Nice post
  • #576,108
  • Edited 9:51pm Dec 17, 2011 8:31pm | Edited 9:51pm
Week end movie's (short) ,

Inserted Video



Inserted Video
Mohan
  • #576,109
  • Dec 17, 2011 9:55pm Dec 17, 2011 9:55pm
Quoting bittervenge
Unfortunately some people reason to be here, are to be vouched for, so their word can count for something whatever they say. Fortunately in most cases you need to actually make sense, or prove profiency in some aspects of trading to get one.
I am impressed with yout patience to reply such comment. I guess your avatar says smething about you
Voucher are not a measure of wisdom in trading.
Some people say its a measure of popularity,
Some people say it is in most cases lately an ass-licking contest.

I tend to feel like it is the last one, especially the last year or so.

Remember that if you get many vouchers while being here a relatively short time, many of those vouchers are from pathetically losing traders who have no clue about trading. Many vouchers are sold like "you give me one, I give you one, which makes the whole voucher system absolutely worthless.

Just my opinion.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #576,110
  • Dec 17, 2011 10:09pm Dec 17, 2011 10:09pm
i suck at trading a always lose money, i am broke and i live in a dumpster because i am so horrible, that my broker calls me and asks me 3 times if i am sure i want to open a position.




now those that change anything in my life?
whether that statement is true or false, does it have any impact on my trading?

how about.

i make 300,000,000 a day.

those that have an impact on my trading?


at the end of the day my sorry pathetic account and my stupid trading decisions will be .................sad
no matter how much of a George Sorros i say i am.


its all about validation.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #576,111
  • Dec 18, 2011 3:23am Dec 18, 2011 3:23am
that was my point exactly

some people think V10+ traders are experts, and not always the case
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #576,112
  • Dec 18, 2011 4:05am Dec 18, 2011 4:05am
Quoting the redlion
i suck at trading a always lose money, i am broke and i live in a dumpster because i am so horrible, that my broker calls me and asks me 3 times if i am sure i want to open a position.




now those that change anything in my life?
whether that statement is true or false, does it have any impact on my trading?

how about.

i make 300,000,000 a day.

those that have an impact on my trading?


at the end of the day my sorry pathetic account and my stupid trading decisions will be .................sad
no matter how much of a George Sorros i say i am.


its...
i see 300 000 000 . only a trade you can live comfortable for finance. i dont think make money is easy...hehe this is my first post..
  • #576,113
  • Dec 18, 2011 4:54am Dec 18, 2011 4:54am
Quoting gez40
What is so important about a vouch?
It's almost a shame when you get one
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #576,114
  • Dec 18, 2011 5:05am Dec 18, 2011 5:05am
Quoting mohan76
Week end movie's (short) ,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cbk980jV7Ao


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2w9cKFiCrSU
Nice movie, what a great movie to motivated people.
Thanks Mohan, it really moved me.
  • #576,115
  • Dec 18, 2011 5:50am Dec 18, 2011 5:50am
well ever since i knew ff i thought a vouch was for prestige .lol. how wrong i was
  • #576,116
  • Dec 18, 2011 5:53am Dec 18, 2011 5:53am
Quoting gez40
What is so important about a vouch?
Basically a vouch means you've made it in the trading world, you will find the vouch in many FOREX trading rooms, normally the guys with the most vouches have worked as professional traders. If not then they are on their way to working as professional traders, I've been at this game for a while, but still can't see to earn that freak'n vouch, just out of reach, just when I think I'm about to get one I say something stupid like go long EURJPY or try trading the new pair EURMOM...
Never been vouched
  • #576,117
  • Dec 18, 2011 7:04am Dec 18, 2011 7:04am
Quoting the redlion
i suck at trading a always lose money, i am broke and i live in a dumpster because i am so horrible, that my broker calls me and asks me 3 times if i am sure i want to open a position.




now those that change anything in my life?
whether that statement is true or false, does it have any impact on my trading?

how about.

i make 300,000,000 a day.

those that have an impact on my trading?


at the end of the day my sorry pathetic account and my stupid trading decisions will be .................sad
no matter how much of a George...
Are things that bad? Come on, you are getting through somehow...
  • #576,118
  • Dec 18, 2011 7:32am Dec 18, 2011 7:32am
Quoting iono
Hey can I got a Vouch, or a V, I would like one as it is the Christmas season
omg
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #576,119
  • Dec 18, 2011 7:34am Dec 18, 2011 7:34am
Quoting the redlion
i dont think i licked ass to get vouchers...........must have been drunk


however i dont think V10+ traders are any different than 0V traders.

we are all in a pissing contest that leads no where, guys can say the have F*%$ a lot of V's ( ) but at the end of the day, if you are getting laid you aint bragging.
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #576,120
  • Dec 18, 2011 7:38am Dec 18, 2011 7:38am
Quoting iono
Basically a vouch means you've made it in the trading world...
well yes, obviously, but even more: those of us with the coveted 10+ vouches are a race of supehuman traders that God has sent to these forums to spread our wisdom (sparingly, it is a very powerful elixir) among the unitiated. We are all unspeakably rich and handsome. Women and children crowd around us wherever we go, while lesser men stand back in awe and envy.

Those who have posted here more than 100 times and still have no vouches are clearly mentally defective. One of the clearest symptoms of this dementia is the recurrent insistence that the Vouch System is somehow flawed or meaningless. It is not. Nothing is more important than getting 10+ vouches.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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