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  • #576,081
  • Dec 17, 2011 4:52am Dec 17, 2011 4:52am
Been watching some Ron Paul vids:


U guys think ron paul will be elected? Seems like hes a fan favourite, tells it like it is. Gigs up if he is, expect depression because the black magic is finished. He probably would be assasinated before he even tried to, I think the path he chose to try to get to be president means he is generally a good person that doesn't have hidden agenda's. He probably wont be corrupted by the banks, which causes a conflict of interest with the various cartels from oil to money supply.

But I do think we would prosper int he long run by getting back to our roots of real growth.
  • #576,082
  • Dec 17, 2011 5:15am Dec 17, 2011 5:15am
i heard he was a lunatic, not electable, crazy, stupid, and i wondered why every time there was debate there was never any mention of him.

yet every time i heard him speak, he was the only genuine politician that made any sense, so began to watch the debates, and then dug deeper to see if there was anything that would make me not want to vote for him.

now i am a supporter of him and plan to donate
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #576,083
  • Dec 17, 2011 5:18am Dec 17, 2011 5:18am
Inserted Video


just like he predicted, the war machine is now targeting IRAN, and that will be the next war. Even in the debates the question of "when will we bomb Iran has no satisfactory answer than we will bomb IRAN"
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #576,084
  • Dec 17, 2011 5:22am Dec 17, 2011 5:22am
Inserted Video
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #576,085
  • Dec 17, 2011 5:25am Dec 17, 2011 5:25am
Inserted Video


Inserted Video
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #576,086
  • Dec 17, 2011 5:26am Dec 17, 2011 5:26am
i agree with him on all counts

lunatic my ass, it doesnt serve the purpose of the central banks, does not serve the purpose of the military industrial complex, and he does not serve the purpose of expanding government and entitlement
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #576,087
  • Dec 17, 2011 5:58am Dec 17, 2011 5:58am
I think when Monday comes and a new trading week begins , WE ARE GOING TO SEE A DOWNWARDS MOVE RIGHT FROM THE START of the week >>>>>> RIGHT ?
Human
  • #576,088
  • Dec 17, 2011 6:27am Dec 17, 2011 6:27am
Quoting Chanya
I think when Monday comes and a new trading week begins , WE ARE GOING TO SEE A DOWNWARDS MOVE RIGHT FROM THE START of the week >>>>>> RIGHT ?
I would say the market will continue going upward as I see a ascending triangle bullish.
Support @ 1.3005
Resistance @ 1.3160 - 1.3145
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU-17Dec2011-Ascending Triangle Bullish.png Size: 133 KB
RM
  • #576,089
  • Dec 17, 2011 6:40am Dec 17, 2011 6:40am
Here is my tech analysis. i think at first it will move until 1.314, if it break this level, very strong possibility to see 1.36 until end of this year
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #576,090
  • Dec 17, 2011 6:47am Dec 17, 2011 6:47am
Quoting navigatorlt
Here is my tech analysis. i think at first it will move until 1.314, if it break this level, very strong possibility to see 1.36 until end of this year

My reasons for saying so are ,, HUGE Macd hidden bearish divergence , Fibonacci extension level 61.8 turned resistance , and same reasons for GBP/USD and NZD/USD which means Exact currency co-relation results and a support at 1.3065 !!!!

P.S... I use Hourly chart !!!
Human
  • #576,091
  • Dec 17, 2011 7:19am Dec 17, 2011 7:19am
here is xe Live quote for Euro/usd short , don't trust them on week end

1 EUR = 1.2878 USD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xe-Live quate.png Size: 77 KB
Mohan
  • #576,092
  • Dec 17, 2011 7:38am Dec 17, 2011 7:38am
Quoting mohan76
here is xe Live quote for Euro/usd short , don't trust them on week end

1 EUR = 1.2878 USD
that's not the spot price, duh, its the price that they are willing to change money for: ~150 pip markup means they make $1.50 to change $100 to euros.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #576,093
  • Dec 17, 2011 7:46am Dec 17, 2011 7:46am
Quoting The Fool
that's not the spot price, duh, its the price that they are willing to change money for: ~150 pip markup means they make $1.50 to change $100 to euros.
lol ,since i have account with them, i should aware that . week days 70 pip commission now 170, (100 pip buffer for weekend opening gap) i used them lot
Mohan
  • #576,094
  • Dec 17, 2011 8:49am Dec 17, 2011 8:49am
Quoting sidhujag
cmon are you kidding me? It's in our gene's as a retailer! HAHAH well I do visit the useless thread you guys got going on there and most of you are usually trying to pick bottom/tops on reactions based on either G's numbers or some fibs/confluence/trendlines against the immediate trend for resumption of the bigger trend.

In general the hopium of trying to get a 20:1 reward:risk trade trumps a 1:1 trade with higher chance of success everytime. Hard to let go of that, and maybe is something needed to overcome on a regular basis to get over the hump....
Hypothetically speaking assuming a trader has no significant edge:

1. If one's Risk/Reward is 1/20 (losing 1 pip for an effort to gain 20 pips) the chances are that only 1 out of twenty trades wll be a winner.

2. If one's Risk/Reward is 1/1 (losing 1 pip for an effort to gain 1 pip) the chances are that every other trade will be winner.

3. If one's Risk/Reward is 19/1 (losing 19 pips to gain 1 pip) the chances are that 18 out of 19 trades will be winners.

Once said that, it means:

a. If one is trying to push for few pips trades with 1:1 Risk/Reward, the spread will kill the trader.

b. If one is trying to swiing trade with 1/20 Risk/Reward, a 100 pip Stop-Loss would mean waiting for a 2,000 pip move before PA hits Take-Profit target. A less frequent occurance.

c. If one trades with SL and TP wide enough that spread becomes negligible expense, each of the above mentioned 1, 2 and 3 would result in a Profit/Loss ratio of 1:1.

That means:

i. Scalpers should always seek better Risk/Reward ratio (e.g. 1/20).

ii. Intra-day traders would be well off with a moderate Risk/Reward ratio (e.g. 1:1 or near to).

iii. Swing traders may go for either Moderate or Low Risk/Reward ratio, that is, WORSE than 1:1 (e.g. 19/1).

Whay?

Scalpers with a vey ambitious Risk/Reward ratio may hit a series of losing trades before making a winning trade and therefore will be able to preserve their capital until they hit a couple of winning trades.

Intra-day traders make several trades in a week and with a reasonable probability of hitting winning trade after every few they can preserve their trading capital by taking moderate risk.

Swing traders have better chance of hitting a winning trade because they can also benefit from fundamentals in addition to technicals but a better Risk/Reward may not be feasible because of the length of the trade. Since their trades are based on more reliable analysis, they have a frequent chance of hitting Take-Profit.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #576,095
  • Dec 17, 2011 9:10am Dec 17, 2011 9:10am
Quoting Chicky
Hypothetically speaking assuming a trader has no significant edge:

1. If one's Risk/Reward is 1/20 (losing 1 pip for an effort to gain 20 pips) the chances are that only 1 out of twenty trades wll be a winner.

2. If one's Risk/Reward is 1/1 (losing 1 pip for an effort to gain 1 pip) the chances are that every other trade will be winner.

3. If one's Risk/Reward is 19/1 (losing 19 pips to gain 1 pip) the chances are that 18 out of 19 trades will be winners.

Once said that, it means:

a. If one is trying to push for few pips trades...
Btw,Actually In how many minutes our position open/close will be category scalpers?
Personaly I dont think position which open above 15 minutes still considered scalpers?


Many thanks
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #576,096
  • Dec 17, 2011 9:17am Dec 17, 2011 9:17am
Quoting FXMindset
Btw,Actually In how many minutes our position open/close will be category scalpers?
Personaly I dont think position which open above 15 minutes still considered scalpers?


Many thanks
I do not consider time-element in trading. Everything for me is the Price (or pips). Anything less than 60 pips in today's time is a scalp for me. That many pips pa takes just to warm up before a real move.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #576,097
  • Dec 17, 2011 9:19am Dec 17, 2011 9:19am
Quoting Chicky
I do not consider time-element in trading. Everything for me is the Price (or pips). Anything less than 60 pips in today's time is a scalp for me. That many pips pa takes just to warm up before a real move.
Btw...the book.....
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #576,098
  • Dec 17, 2011 9:20am Dec 17, 2011 9:20am
Quoting FXMindset
Btw...the book.....
Today. More than one.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #576,099
  • Dec 17, 2011 9:37am Dec 17, 2011 9:37am
Quoting Chicky
Hypothetically speaking assuming a trader has no significant edge:

1. If one's Risk/Reward is 1/20 (losing 1 pip for an effort to gain 20 pips) the chances are that only 1 out of twenty trades wll be a winner. [...etc.]

I don't think I understand your assumptions because:

to say "one's Risk/Reward is 1/20" (which is the Kath Lien/bankers best friend definition of risk/reward) implies that a position is opened with an SL 1 pip from the opening price and a TP at a distance of 20. Okay so far?

then,

"a trader has no significant edge" would mean that price action starting from the "no edge" entry would have the character (over time) of a one-dimensional random walk; and that would mean the probability of hitting the TP before the SL would be something like 1/2 to the 20th power. That would be very different from the stated 1/20th win rate that would lead to a BE expectation value.

Admittedly, FX price movements tend to trend and are hardly random walks so the real probability of a winner would be much better than 1/2^20. On the other hand it should still be far less than 1 in 20. That would mean you don't even come close to BE.

At least that is my reasoning.

Could you explain further?
  • #576,100
  • Dec 17, 2011 9:46am Dec 17, 2011 9:46am
Quoting Tellerton
I don't think I understand your assumptions because:

to say "one's Risk/Reward is 1/20" (which is the Kath Lien/bankers best friend definition of risk/reward) implies that a position is opened with an SL 1 pip from the opening price and a TP at a distance of 20. Okay so far?

then,

"a trader has no significant edge" would mean that price action starting from the "no edge" entry would have the character (over time) of a one-dimensional random walk; and that would mean the probability of hitting the TP before the SL would be something...
My friend, trading is an art not a science and very very far from exact science.

It's very simple if you logically look at the things. If one is seeking 20 pip profit for a risk of 1 pip and has no definite information (inside or outside) where the market would go, has 1 out of 20 chance that pa would hit the tp. (Let's fuck the exponent / power etc. for the time being).

If fx prices hardly random walk, I would have been a trillionnaire by now. I don't say they are completely random, but provide very very little edge. The great mistake people do is to take the risk more than that edge.
The Thief of Wall Street
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