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X-Man's Super Simple System

  • #2,261
  • Dec 15, 2011 6:43am Dec 15, 2011 6:43am
There can be another opportunity.

Edit: 15m chart.
Attached Image
  • #2,262
  • Dec 15, 2011 7:34am Dec 15, 2011 7:34am
Quoting Waqs
Very nice Phx62. Thanks for posting the chart!

At the moment I'm just backtesting and watching the PA on the M15. Because M15 will have more noise does using stochs give more confirmation and security in a sense?
On the M15, stochs give an additional confirmation that the TDI cross is going to stay crossed, especially if the stoch is coming out of an overbought or oversold area. For more info on this look at the last 2 threads started by Eelfranz.
  • #2,263
  • Dec 15, 2011 7:50am Dec 15, 2011 7:50am
Those who are struggling with trading I would suggest for the time being, forget about the target in terms of pips whether 100 or 1,000. Just concentrate on identifying the setup with high probability. If a trader learn how to identify a good setup pips will eventually follow. Pips are nothing but the end result of good setup. At this level, targeting pips is just like putting a cart before the horse – lol

Forex is boring but profitable with patience and discipline
  • #2,264
  • Dec 15, 2011 8:03am Dec 15, 2011 8:03am
Quoting prftablefool
Those who are struggling with trading I would suggest for the time being, forget about the target in terms of pips whether 100 or 1,000. Just concentrate on identifying the setup with high probability. If a trader learn how to identify a good setup pips will eventually follow. Pips are nothing but the end result of good setup. At this level, targeting pips is just like putting a cart before the horse – lol

...
Yes you are right, the realization and Identification of a profitable setup is of foremost importance......

arasheed
  • #2,265
  • Dec 15, 2011 8:07am Dec 15, 2011 8:07am
+15 pips. Now waiting for tomorrow

Quoting mike1
There can be another opportunity.

Edit: 15m chart.
  • #2,266
  • Dec 15, 2011 9:05am Dec 15, 2011 9:05am
i just got home , midnight here (thailand ), and look at charts eu and gu .looks to me that gu behaving much better at the moment re. x- man system , may be to do with time of year , i dont know, i am still learner ., but just a thought .?
rob
  • #2,267
  • Dec 15, 2011 9:42am Dec 15, 2011 9:42am
Quoting hale-mary
, Analyze the candle formation and then write down the certain formations that happen over .

X-man what do you mean by this. I may not be backtesting correctly. What i do is look at candles and see if the tdi cross agrees. So if there is a pin bar and a cross. I will say that i took the signal. But my mind may play tricks on me since some of the stups happen during the franky open and i may be tricking myself in backtesting for sure. I will post a chart later on about what i mean.
Ok i see a problem with traders identifying certain setup candles when back testing.
I will be compiling a PDF showing you guys the candles patterns that will increase your chances of been profitable.
If you guys keep your eyes open for certain candle formations then definitely you will be making pips. I dont even look at TDI when i see certain candles.

I will compile that PDF in January coz now i am on holiday.
Please remind me in January to do this.
X-man the legendary conqueror of markets
  • #2,268
  • Dec 15, 2011 9:43am Dec 15, 2011 9:43am
X-man this is what i mean with this chart for instance,
So the up arrows on the chart are the candles I see form completely and then enter or if it breaks a low or high (this i found kills moe over candle closes)

The down arrows are basically how I do my back test. Feel free to say..."what on earth are you doing"

Hindsight I look at the down arrow areas ( there are two of these and go...wow what a perfect signal) I may be failing to take into account what i need to be aware of in back testing. So many time I go enter when I see a candle close and tdi cross above the mov. Price movews a little bit then goes back. Other times it keeps moving. So this is why I say I may not be backtesting correctly hence half my problems
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  • #2,269
  • Dec 15, 2011 10:00am Dec 15, 2011 10:00am
Quoting hale-mary
X-man this is what i mean with this chart for instance,
So the up arrows on the chart are the candles I see form completely and then enter or if it breaks a low or high (this i found kills moe over candle closes)

The down arrows are basically how I do my back test. Feel free to say..."what on earth are you doing"

Hindsight I look at the down arrow areas ( there are two of these and go...wow what a perfect signal) I may be failing to take into account what i need to be aware of in back testing. So many time I go enter when I see a candle close...
From what i see your entries are wrong and late.
Ok let me compile that PDF of the candles you look out for and then when you back test you look for those setups. I think that will help you a lot more.
X-man the legendary conqueror of markets
  • #2,270
  • Dec 15, 2011 10:13am Dec 15, 2011 10:13am
For now have a nice holiday away from your charts.
Sometimes when you spend too much time in front of charts you then tend to miss the obvious.
In January we can start working that brain again.
Thats when we will be all fresh to start the new year


X-man the legendary conqueror of markets
  • #2,271
  • Dec 15, 2011 10:22am Dec 15, 2011 10:22am
No signals at all so far for me
No trading at all
but as X and SmokeyD said:

No trading is part of trading as well


Cheers
let's skype: @elchinoazul
  • #2,272
  • Dec 15, 2011 10:33am Dec 15, 2011 10:33am
Quoting X-Man
From what i see your entries are wrong and late.
Ok let me compile that PDF of the candles you look out for and then when you back test you look for those setups. I think that will help you a lot more.
Thanks!!!!...by the way the vertical lines are the beginning of london session if not one hour later. I did not want to put a sessions indy on there and confuse you
  • #2,273
  • Dec 15, 2011 10:50am Dec 15, 2011 10:50am
Hi there, I'm quite new to forex trading and I've decided I'll put my heart onto this trading setup

I just started backtesting and I've encounter a few signals that doesn't seems quite right? Can you help me on this??
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  • #2,274
  • Dec 15, 2011 11:34am Dec 15, 2011 11:34am
Quoting Phx62
On the M15, stochs give an additional confirmation that the TDI cross is going to stay crossed, especially if the stoch is coming out of an overbought or oversold area. For more info on this look at the last 2 threads started by Eelfranz.
Thanks, I'll check them threads out. Appreciated.
  • #2,275
  • Dec 15, 2011 12:17pm Dec 15, 2011 12:17pm
Quoting SuperNoobie
Experts , got stupid Q that bothers me.

Well, everytime I compare currencies E/U, G/U, it moves pretty much on the same pattern. As to USD/CHF, it should be the other way around.

My concern, I know it seems stupid to think about this, but sometimes I can't put myself to place a position when I know E/U is going up, but G/U is going down. There seems to be a contradiction when it is suppose to 'tag' together.

Do you think I should ignore this and just follow what the chart / indicator say?
Hi all,

First FF post, although I've been lurking this thread more or less since it started. I would like to thank X-Man for the method and the other positive contributors to this thread.

SuperNoobie, you are aware that just about all the the Forex pairs are correlated to some degree or another. If you Google "Forex correlation" and go to the http://www.forexticket.co.uk/en/tools/01-01-correlation page, for example, you can find the correlation coefficients for the various pairs, for different TimeFrames. For example, on the daily TF, there is a 84.2% correlation between EURUSD and GBPUSD, and an almost perfect -96.7% between EURUSD and USDCHF.

However, because GBP and EUR are only correlated 84.2% of the time, my view is that you can look for suitable trades on either EURUSD or GBPUSD, without worrying about the other pair. However, to avoid the corrrelation risk, in general I would suggest you only trade one of the pairs at any one time. If you trade both pairs in the same direction at the same time, the most likely outcome, from a probability point of view, is that you will either have two winners, or two losers, so why bother trading both pairs?

HTH
Chris
  • #2,276
  • Dec 15, 2011 12:21pm Dec 15, 2011 12:21pm
Quoting Brifx
Nice little counter trend trade setting up on the 15 min TF. Green RSI has crossed red Trade Signal line and the 50 to the upside, PA has broken 1.3000 RN and is above the 4 ma with room to run to about the 1.3025, 1.3030 short term resistance.
Had a bit of luck on my side today. Had to walk away from the computer for a while and let my trade run itself which turned out for the best. My SL was .5 pps from being hit before pa turned around and hit my TP by 3 pips before reversing itself again. Wound up + 33 on one trade for today. See what tomorrow brings but looks like smaller TF's may be the way to go until after new Years. happy trading!
  • #2,277
  • Dec 15, 2011 12:54pm Dec 15, 2011 12:54pm
So During my backtesting (the f12 key is genius. amzaed i didnt know about this) there are fantastic entries on the pin ars/pullback bars that X-man says.

Here is my trouble although the bars look good and they pay out to an extent. The SLs on some of these bars exceeds 50 pips and cand get close 100 in the 60 to 100 range.

Last week a bunch of us entered on HUGE pullback that occured in NY session but the stop on that would have been above 100 pips once we entered at the close of the candle on the 1 hour chart.

The RR seems kind of bad if you are like me and are target only 50 pips.

X-man with regards to the pin/pullback bar how do you determine your SL since you only focus on 1 hour.

attached is a fews days in EU. I have market the areas were the pin/pullback occurs and they are all with in the time parameters. Problem is the SL is initially big and sometimes price might get close to it before turning down. So at what point would you personally kill the trade.

Again this might have to do with entry. I know some one is going to say that i have to determine how much I am willing to lose before bailing out. This is all secondary if I know how to tackle the situation .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,278
  • Dec 15, 2011 1:14pm Dec 15, 2011 1:14pm
Compare a 100 pip SL with the ATR (7 or 14 period, doesn't much matter) and take the lesser - usually the 1H E/$ ATR is around 25-35 pips which is why I think X-Man suggests 30 pips. Also, a 100 pip SL with a 1 micro lot is 10 bucks - that is a lot if you have a $100 account but not so bad if you have a 1K acct. Just an idea, p.
  • #2,279
  • Dec 15, 2011 1:52pm Dec 15, 2011 1:52pm
Or if it's a huge abnormal pullback bar then it's easy....Don't Take It!
  • #2,280
  • Dec 15, 2011 1:52pm Dec 15, 2011 1:52pm
Below are two charts.....one that you posted and one that I posted covering the same time period. I drew a couple of lines on your chart to show possible entries and added the total number of pips it moved from those entries.......my chart shows actual entries on both of those moves....obviously I did not get all the pips in the move....no-one can pick the bottom of moves consistantly. My suggestion is that when you backtest, you mark your ENTRY on the chart, not just the place where the reversal came. I found it good practice for making actual entries and it helped me not to hesitate when the entry was there. The earlier you can successfully enter, the more pips you can gain.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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