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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #15,121
  • Dec 15, 2011 3:24am Dec 15, 2011 3:24am
Quoting bumapatria
easier to predict u mean easier to short the hell out of right?

No, chart patterns are much clearer, long and short. Do some TA on the higher time frames and you will find nice neat patterns, while with the EU you have an unpredictable mess. Look at the weekly charts. Most candle bodies are full. A doji is almost always the sign of a reversal. And corrections have two or three clear legs, S/R work really nicely, and for the last 3 years it has been following a beautiful north bound trendline.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #15,122
  • Dec 15, 2011 3:29am Dec 15, 2011 3:29am
Quoting Wulfgar
what a piece of shit Europe is

I read the Bulletin I lost count at how many times they said shit loke "depression, recession, slowdown, heightened tension... blah blah"

Any position traders who are long the EU right now need to consider another career.... until some major shit happens this pig is going downhill fast
lol, I remember thinking this back in early October. That didn't work out for me so well. I still ended the month up but just barely. The funny thing was I was long from 1.315 to 1.3500... but then I had the bright idea of shorting again... and then again from 1.385...
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #15,123
  • Dec 15, 2011 3:33am Dec 15, 2011 3:33am
Quoting AaronWard
lol, I remember thinking this back in early October. That didn't work out for me so well. I still ended the month up but just barely. The funny thing was I was long from 1.315 to 1.3500... but then I had the bright idea of shorting again... and then again from 1.385...
ahh crap... so u got raped on that stupid freak up move to 1.42?

that was the most retarded thing I ever saw... I spent that entire 400 pip move day from 38-42 (the 27th of oct)building longs on the UCHF that im still holding now when it was sub .9

mainly cuz I just idnt wanna pay the swap of holding EU shorts... Call me a cheap ass but it does add up!

that rally was absolutely done on vapor volume and every day it went up it just made me hate forex more and more
  • #15,124
  • Dec 15, 2011 3:34am Dec 15, 2011 3:34am
Quoting bumapatria
nice also scalped that as posted above...


ure like master of fibs or something
mmm....I ran this fib based thread for about 18 months.....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=69499
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #15,125
  • Dec 15, 2011 3:37am Dec 15, 2011 3:37am
Quoting Islander
mmm....I ran this fib based thread for about 18 months.....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=69499

dude I dont understand one damn thing about fibs or why they work(other than because lots of people use em)

but kudos to you... i looked at that post and it looks like you got that stuff down to a science...
  • #15,126
  • Dec 15, 2011 3:43am Dec 15, 2011 3:43am
Quoting AaronWard
I wouldn't count on it. My mom has been at it for 30 years now. Have you ever tried to stop your mom from talking about something you don't want her to talk about?
Well, there are billions who believe in talking snake who makes you to eat cursed apple made by loving God and 5 000 years old Earth so your mom is actually quite normal compared with that crap.
  • #15,127
  • Dec 15, 2011 3:44am Dec 15, 2011 3:44am
Quoting Islander
mmm....I ran this fib based thread for about 18 months.....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=69499
thanks will give it a check
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,128
  • Dec 15, 2011 3:49am Dec 15, 2011 3:49am
Quoting GoldMan.
Well, there are billions who believe in talking snake who makes you to eat cursed apple made by loving God and 5 000 years old Earth so your mom is actually quite normal compared with that crap.
even in a comparative sense i still suspect that using the word 'normal' in reference to any type of irrationality and delusion is an oxymoron.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #15,129
  • Dec 15, 2011 3:51am Dec 15, 2011 3:51am
Quoting Wulfgar
I spent that entire 400 pip move day from 38-42 (the 27th of oct)building longs on the UCHF that im still holding now when it was sub .9

mainly cuz I just idnt wanna pay the swap of holding EU shorts... Call me a cheap ass but it does add up!
What a great idea. I hate paying swap too.

I am crying myself to sleep every night that I closed my shorts. I don't dare jump in precisely because I want to. Calculated risk works great for me. Fear of losing money typically means I do something stupid and lose money. Probably will be back in on Monday though.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #15,130
  • Dec 15, 2011 3:55am Dec 15, 2011 3:55am
Quoting AaronWard
I am crying myself to sleep every night that I closed my shorts. I don't dare jump in precisely because I want to. Calculated risk works great for me. Fear of losing money typically means I do something stupid and lose money. Probably will be back in on Monday though.

It's not that much better on this side.

This "winning" trade won't mean a thing unless I can continue increasing my lot size. And I can't do that unless the price keeps moving down.

If the trend ends up reversing before then, I might get stopped out at BE, and it would be as if I had never entered a position to begin with.
  • #15,131
  • Dec 15, 2011 3:57am Dec 15, 2011 3:57am
Quoting AaronWard
What a great idea. I hate paying swap too.

I am crying myself to sleep every night that I closed my shorts. I don't dare jump in precisely because I want to. Calculated risk works great for me. Fear of losing money typically means I do something stupid and lose money. Probably will be back in on Monday though.

lol I hear ya man... today was a biggy for my swissy longs... SNB was pretty damn Dovish about the Europe situation... alarmingly so.... and if they maintain the Peg than it shouldnt be too long until we are staring at beyond Parity in the UCHF.... been callin this since the .7's... unfortunately I closed out all my longs from way down there with some hefty profit cuz I needed to cash to live... lol
  • #15,132
  • Dec 15, 2011 4:13am Dec 15, 2011 4:13am
Quoting kibescorp
It's not that much better on this side.

This "winning" trade won't mean a thing unless I can continue increasing my lot size. And I can't do that unless the price keeps moving down.

If the trend ends up reversing before then, I might get stopped out at BE, and it would be as if I had never entered a position to begin with.
That all depends where you entered.
This move down has to make at least a small correction at some time, but when you say "trend reversal", as long as you are referring to small time frames, that's fine, but I wouldn't be looking for any trend reversal on the daily. The Euro is doomed to 1.20 very soon.
So, even if you get stopped at BE, you will get a better short opportunity. Just let PA be your guide.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #15,133
  • Dec 15, 2011 4:20am Dec 15, 2011 4:20am
Quoting PipTrapper
So, even if you get stopped at BE, you will get a better short opportunity. Just let PA be your guide.

Yes, but if I refrain from increasing my lot size, and a correction occurs, stopping me out, I can simply re-enter at the same price or BETTER.

However, if I start adding lots now, and the price only moves up far enough to stop me out at the NEW basis price, then I screwed myself over and have to re-enter at a price that is lower than my original one, and with my starting lot size.
  • #15,134
  • Dec 15, 2011 4:22am Dec 15, 2011 4:22am
wandering through the chat rooms... bears are out in force. If the Euro was keeping up with expectations it would already be at parity.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #15,135
  • Dec 15, 2011 4:28am Dec 15, 2011 4:28am
Quoting PipTrapper
That all depends where you entered.
This move down has to make at least a small correction at some time, but when you say "trend reversal", as long as you are referring to small time frames, that's fine, but I wouldn't be looking for any trend reversal on the daily. The Euro is doomed to 1.20 very soon.
So, even if you get stopped at BE, you will get a better short opportunity. Just let PA be your guide.
3200 is a good sup retest to and as well a supply zone with firm base.

3061 needs to be passed for a 3200 retest. if not we might see the drop from 3060 supply


PT do u use limit orders? just a q
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,136
  • Dec 15, 2011 4:29am Dec 15, 2011 4:29am
Hi guys,

I dont have much time to post today, but as you probably well know, Draghi is about to speak in an hour.

And because he already fired all bullets he had, I expect absolutely nothing from him. This could yet again bring downwards move, as he will remind the depression to markets.

My next level of TP lurks at ,2908. I hope Draghi will get me there.

GL,

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #15,137
  • Dec 15, 2011 4:30am Dec 15, 2011 4:30am
Quoting AaronWard
wandering through the chat rooms... bears are out in force. If the Euro was keeping up with expectations it would already be at parity.
their resilience never ceases to amaze me.


Bernanke spoke yesterday on no bailing out EZ with Fed treasury so that alone is an extremely bearish signal.

unless he is hiding something behind the curtains
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,138
  • Dec 15, 2011 4:30am Dec 15, 2011 4:30am
Quoting nubcake
even in a comparative sense i still suspect that using the word 'normal' in reference to any type of irrationality and delusion is an oxymoron.

Au contraire Mr. Cupcake. Irrational and delusional behavior is a human norm. If you don't believe me go on the gold thread and listen to what they have to say.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #15,139
  • Dec 15, 2011 4:33am Dec 15, 2011 4:33am
they predicted 2000 by end of year. which then by one week gold drops to 1500 areas.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,140
  • Dec 15, 2011 4:39am Dec 15, 2011 4:39am
Quoting AaronWard
wandering through the chat rooms... bears are out in force. If the Euro was keeping up with expectations it would already be at parity.
You always hear them screaming when we have such a long trend. I guess this would be a good time for faceripping short squeeze . There was hardly any correction since 1,42, many levels are technically untested. Every mongrel can see we are in a downtrend. Hmm, yummy margins.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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