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AUD/USD

  • #37,741
  • Dec 14, 2011 9:12pm Dec 14, 2011 9:12pm
but i got out because of that quick drop; thought it was going to drop :-( however, think it is just ranging again. the last few days we see 4-8 hour sideways then a huge drop... the problem is i always miss the drop :-((

the eurusd range for today so far is 13 pips!

Quoting Halba
looks like u got some profit mpurdy, it failed to break 9880

it seems the best thing for AUD is the 4.25% interest rate and the fact the dollar is zero yield. the extent to which the rBA cut the rate will determine where this ends up.
  • #37,742
  • Dec 14, 2011 9:20pm Dec 14, 2011 9:20pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
but i got out because of that quick drop; thought it was going to drop :-( however, think it is just ranging again. the last few days we see 4-8 hour sideways then a huge drop... the problem is i always miss the drop :-((

the eurusd range for today so far is 13 pips!
me too, i missed EVERY SINGLE major move.
  • #37,743
  • Dec 14, 2011 9:26pm Dec 14, 2011 9:26pm
Quoting Halba
asia it is ranging just like yesterday. although the eu news is cataclysmic, so is weighing on eu. market is focussed mainly on eu hence the huge drop in aud/usd(even more than euro)

And of course as everybody knows Australia is that country in the middle of Eurozone... Or is Austria? Oh, wait!

Fundies are so funny: always get a perfect explanation for everything, though just *after* the shit happens.

Tip: Gold
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #37,744
  • Dec 14, 2011 9:28pm Dec 14, 2011 9:28pm
the problem is i have a full time job... the big moves ALWAYS happen at three times:
1) when i am in a long meeting without internet access.
2) when i am taking my daughter to day school
3) at 3-5 am EST when i am sleeping


i told my wife i am going to quit my job, get up at 3am and trade; and she can take my daughter to school - however, for some reason my wife didnt like that idea

i have been shorting on rallies; however, we are not getting any these days; just sideways and straight down. i think i am going to start put limit order short by fib retracements and see what happens???

Quoting happytrader
me too, i missed EVERY SINGLE major move.
  • #37,745
  • Dec 14, 2011 9:31pm Dec 14, 2011 9:31pm
hi if u miss big moves the only option is to scalp ranges with tight stops, the range today is 10 pip. only problem with scalping range, is it does break out due to stop hunt a little.

the risk reward of scalping in a tight range isnt that high

limit orders - can work for and against you. sometimes they will just target those regions and it will proceed to ure sl quickly.
  • #37,746
  • Dec 14, 2011 9:37pm Dec 14, 2011 9:37pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
the problem is i have a full time job... the big moves ALWAYS happen at three times:
1) when i am in a long meeting without internet access.
2) when i am taking my daughter to day school
3) at 3-5 am EST when i am sleeping


i told my wife i am going to quit my job, get up at 3am and trade; and she can take my daughter to school - however, for some reason my wife didnt like that idea

i have been shorting on rallies; however, we are not getting any these days; just sideways and straight down. i think i am going to start put limit...
well, to be able to trade for a living is wonderful isn't it. i'm sure you can do it.
  • #37,747
  • Dec 14, 2011 9:37pm Dec 14, 2011 9:37pm
That is the smartest think I heard all day...Cheers!

Quoting Halba
hi if u miss big moves the only option is to scalp ranges with tight stops, the range today is 10 pip. only problem with scalping range, is it does break out due to stop hunt a little.

the risk reward of scalping in a tight range isnt that high

limit orders - can work for and against you. sometimes they will just target those regions and it will proceed to ure sl quickly.
  • #37,748
  • Dec 14, 2011 9:41pm Dec 14, 2011 9:41pm
Quoting Chillypiper
That is the smartest think I heard all day...Cheers!
risk reward for scalper isnt that high due to spread, slippage(esp in fast moving market) and very limited profit compared to stop loss. i have tried a few times, but market breaks out violently even when prior 'range bound'. however it can be done because of multiple trades and small gains add up. if the range holds u win, if its a false breakout(sizeable) or major breakout against you lose.

for a swing trader, he can capture large 50 pip move with reasonable sl, but his SL can be hit many times also. so both strategies have their merit.
  • #37,749
  • Dec 14, 2011 9:47pm Dec 14, 2011 9:47pm
yes, i dont scalp unless the range is over 30+ pips because you lose on both ends.
when i do, i go in the direction of the long term trend so if it breaks i am on the positive side
yes, thats why i normally enter manually and get a positive stop before i leave and let the trade run; however, everything is so crazy; and i missed 400 pips this week because of when the market ran. however, maybe i should wait.

Quoting Halba
hi if u miss big moves the only option is to scalp ranges with tight stops, the range today is 10 pip. only problem with scalping range, is it does break out due to stop hunt a little.

the risk reward of scalping in a tight range isnt that high

limit orders - can work for and against you. sometimes they will just target those regions and it will proceed to ure sl quickly.
  • #37,750
  • Dec 14, 2011 9:47pm Dec 14, 2011 9:47pm
Correct. There is a time and place for different methods in the market..That is a huge factor in winning in this game..One should not hit the button unless they understand the terms and character or the element..

Quoting Halba
risk reward for scalper isnt that high due to spread, slippage(esp in fast moving market) and very limited profit compared to stop loss. i have tried a few times, but market breaks out violently even when prior 'range bound'. however it can be done because of multiple trades and small gains add up. if the range holds u win, if its a false breakout(sizeable) or major breakout against you lose.

for a swing trader, he can capture large 50 pip move with reasonable sl, but his SL can be hit many times also. so both strategies have their merit.
  • #37,751
  • Dec 14, 2011 9:50pm Dec 14, 2011 9:50pm
i have a three year plan for that; however, you need probably 25k-50k (because of dodd-frank, you can only have 50:1 leverage in the USA now) account to live off of; i have two account totaling 4k (need two account because of dodd-frank; you cant hedge in the USA anymore)

Quoting happytrader
well, to be able to trade for a living is wonderful isn't it. i'm sure you can do it.
  • #37,752
  • Dec 14, 2011 9:58pm Dec 14, 2011 9:58pm
I'm much the same here, I'll scalp when the movements are more then 25pips, and I'll only scalp in the direction of the long term trend.

Most of my success, actually, ALL of my success this week has been based on entering trades on the side of the long term trend. I haven't tried to Long this pair all week, and its been working for me. Than again, I've also not used a SL on a sell this week for any pair. haha. Now I've got 9 positions in positive territory and far enough away that they're all at BE. a quick calculation and there's over 650 pips of profit between all the trades!

I'm a bear on anything that moves at the moment! Only wish I caught the ride down with GOLD. Damn. A standard contract short on that baby at 1700, and I would of taken the rest of the month off work. haha

I saw my chart that told me to sell, but I just couldn't bring myself to it in this market space. Rule 1 of trading - Protect capital - check, rule two - stick to the rules - I didn't and missed out on the trade of the year perhaps

Oh well, I'll catch it on the up when they announce QE3
  • #37,753
  • Dec 14, 2011 10:06pm Dec 14, 2011 10:06pm
hi benjam. gold, euro, aussie are pretty much the same thing, just a risk instrument. so by adding gold u basically wouldve just increased exposure on the same thing. gold/euro chart looks same this week
  • #37,754
  • Dec 14, 2011 10:07pm Dec 14, 2011 10:07pm
where were your entries? my problem is i cant get a good entry because of limited access. so i either
a) sit and watch
b) try to jump in; however, sometimes good, sometimes bad

maybe i need to set my alarm and get up at 3am to get entries???

or i could do the following:
1) short 1 lot now with a 100 pip stop;
2) short 2 limit order at 50 pips north with the same stop
3) short 4 limit orders at 85 pips north with the same stop

risking at most (260 pips => 1*100 + 2*50 + 4*15) with a target of 9700-9800


Quoting benjamf13
I'm much the same here, I'll scalp when the movements are more then 25pips, and I'll only scalp in the direction of the long term trend.

Most of my success, actually, ALL of my success this week has been based on entering trades on the side of the long term trend. I haven't tried to Long this pair all week, and its been working for me. Than again, I've also not used a SL on a sell this week for any pair. haha. Now I've got 9 positions in positive territory and far enough away that they're all at BE. a quick calculation and there's over 650 pips...
  • #37,755
  • Dec 14, 2011 10:09pm Dec 14, 2011 10:09pm
Quoting Halba
hi benjam. gold, euro, aussie are pretty much the same thing, just a risk instrument. so by adding gold u basically wouldve just increased exposure on the same thing. gold/euro chart looks same this week
yes, but I'm a gold bull in the sense that the only real money in the world is the shiny stuff. I couldn't mentally accept that gold didn't have a life raft while the titanic was yelling mayday! haha

Then again, CME has put margins up over ?25% this year, and the only asset class that was previously doing well was gold&silver. So natural selling there to cover shorts etc I guess was to be expected.
  • #37,756
  • Dec 14, 2011 10:13pm Dec 14, 2011 10:13pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
where were your entries? my problem is i cant get a good entry because of limited access. so i either
a) sit and watch
b) try to jump in; however, sometimes good, sometimes bad

maybe i need to set my alarm and get up at 3am to get entries???
My entry came to light on the 7th of Dec, 1D chart, confirmed on the first 4H bar on the 8th/Dec.

Aimed Entry would of been 1711. I'm still kicking myself over it.
Second entry would of also been a close below the 200EMA, without any other indicators. But again, I was just too scared~! hahah

haha. But whatever, on this dip I went and got the real stuff from the dealer Winner all round, somewhat :nerd:
  • #37,757
  • Dec 14, 2011 10:22pm Dec 14, 2011 10:22pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
where were your entries? my problem is i cant get a good entry because of limited access. so i either
a) sit and watch
b) try to jump in; however, sometimes good, sometimes bad

maybe i need to set my alarm and get up at 3am to get entries???

or i could do the following:
1) short 1 lot now with a 100 pip stop;
2) short 2 limit order at 50 pips north with the same stop
3) short 4 limit orders at 85 pips north with the same stop

risking at most (260 pips => 1*100 + 2*50 + 4*15) with a target of 9700-9800


oops, sorry, i thought you were talking gold entries.

First at 1.03, TP @150pips. no SL.
Second channel break down at 12/dec, @1.020, TP @ 150, no SL, but first trade to BE+50
Third came 1.01, TP @ 150pips, no SL, first trade done, second BE+50, third trade indicator failed to break above 35EMA, 10 crossing 35 to go intermediate Down trend.

They all cleaned up,

Now i went short again at the 10EMA @ just under 0.989 Aiming for the full target of 94.

Also entered another short at .995 if we see that again, with TP @ 150, no SL.
Probably jumped the gun a bit early with this one, but on the 1H chart, there has been 4 attempts to rally over the 10EMA, and this current bar looks like it will fail that too, so I jumped in at the chance it won't rally above in the next 32mins... hmmm... We'll see.

All done on a 1H chart

Also a few random scalps here and there as mentioned in this forum. picking up between 20-70pips from memory.
  • #37,758
  • Dec 14, 2011 10:23pm Dec 14, 2011 10:23pm
any feedback on this strategy?

1) short 1 lot now with a 100 pip stop;
2) short 2 limit order at 50 pips north with the same stop
3) short 4 limit orders at 85 pips north with the same stop

risking at most (260 pips => 1*100 + 2*50 + 4*15) with a target of 9700-9500
  • #37,759
  • Dec 14, 2011 10:27pm Dec 14, 2011 10:27pm
1 - Is it going to 0.9950 first then head down to 0.9840

2 - or down to 0.9840 then back up to 0.9980


Currently it is trading at 0.9895 @ 10:30 PM CST
PPP - Patience Pays PIPS
  • #37,760
  • Dec 14, 2011 10:32pm Dec 14, 2011 10:32pm
Dude, you heard off sell the rallys .9900 @ even is how I do it. If shes a runner good! if not no loss..Big news tomorrow..Why risk your money?

Quoting mpurdy1973
any feedback on this strategy?

1) short 1 lot now with a 100 pip stop;
2) short 2 limit order at 50 pips north with the same stop
3) short 4 limit orders at 85 pips north with the same stop

risking at most (260 pips => 1*100 + 2*50 + 4*15) with a target of 9700-9500
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