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AUD/USD

  • #37,721
  • Edited 7:37pm Dec 14, 2011 6:57pm | Edited 7:37pm
Quoting rafiqhidayat
The CNY news in 90 minutes time will probably send the pair further down south.... unless the news is favourable of course.
impossible to predict, also such news is ignored mainly mkt focussing on eu

ranging again just another shakeout there followed by rally back to 99even
  • #37,722
  • Dec 14, 2011 7:46pm Dec 14, 2011 7:46pm
Quoting Halba
impossible to predict, also such news is ignored mainly mkt focussing on eu

ranging again just another shakeout there followed by rally back to 99even
Not true. While the pair moves in tandem with the events in Europe, important news out of AUD, CNY and USD affects the movement of the pair. So saying it is ignored is not true.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #37,723
  • Dec 14, 2011 7:50pm Dec 14, 2011 7:50pm
Quoting rafiqhidayat
Not true. While the pair moves in tandem with the events in Europe, important news out of AUD, CNY and USD affects the movement of the pair. So saying it is ignored is not true.
a bad number = china eases = aud will stabilise

good number = china delays easing = aud will spike because good number

so there are 2 interpretations, but 1 number in isolation hard to interpret need a few months
  • #37,724
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:14pm Dec 14, 2011 8:14pm
Quoting Halba
a bad number = china eases = aud will stabilise

good number = china delays easing = aud will spike because good number

so there are 2 interpretations, but 1 number in isolation hard to interpret need a few months
bad number means australia's biggest client wont be buying anymore and therefore aud should sinks...

irs that simple.

if the number isnt big bad, or isnt big better, then aud will go crab sideways till the next news hit the wire
  • #37,725
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:15pm Dec 14, 2011 8:15pm
Quoting Muhd Taufik
Those who do counter trading.... These are my thoughts .... Good night (Its midnight already here in Asia) See u in Asia session ....


EDIT: What I am trying to say is to look out for the 23, 38 and 50 fibs closely to reload shorts.... Not necessary it will move as per my arrow

Morning all, guess it almost touch my fib 38 before it goes down and in mini range. My thoughts later today will be another plummet down. Those who are already in shorts guess its a matter of moving stops to BE and enjoy the ride. Best scenario to enter now is to wait for it to break 9880s and stay there, it will retest before going down, if not then great!

My earlier charts and what my possible scenario. Seems Asia is getting enough of cleaning up for now and let it slide for a while.... Good morning here in Asia
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  • #37,726
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:21pm Dec 14, 2011 8:21pm
NZUSD pair looking good to close that gap .....
  • #37,727
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:34pm Dec 14, 2011 8:34pm
im long at 9892 with stop at 9875
  • #37,728
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:35pm Dec 14, 2011 8:35pm
number is neutral

“The pace of slowdown stabilized in December but the growth momentum remains weak with additional downside risks from exports and the property market not yet fully filtering through. With inflation quickly shifting to disinflation, the Chinese government can and should make more aggressive easing on both fiscal and monetary fronts to stabilize growth and jobs.”
  • #37,729
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:37pm Dec 14, 2011 8:37pm
i know; but we are at the lows; and are down a lot this week; i think we could get some buying here; maybe???

maybe i was wrong! they must be out of hopium!

Quoting Halba
number is neutral
  • #37,730
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:39pm Dec 14, 2011 8:39pm
hi fxstreet analyst says pair oversold. probability looks like another ranging

number was 49 not a bad one, needs some loose policy in 2012 for china

China flash PMI 49 in November, up from 47.7

By Sean Lee || December 15, 2011 at 02:31 GMT
|| 0 comments || Add comment
Whilst there is some improvement in the data, it still shows an overall contraction in the Chinese manufacturing sector.
Exports to the US, and Europe in particular, have been down sharply in recent data and that situation is only likely to worsen in early 2012.
  • #37,731
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:39pm Dec 14, 2011 8:39pm
Looking for break below previous low as it is the TL on the triangle. Let's party
  • #37,732
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:47pm Dec 14, 2011 8:47pm
9860s is next support; after that its the gap... but i dont know if the bears are that hungry now???
  • #37,733
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:50pm Dec 14, 2011 8:50pm
asia it is ranging just like yesterday. although the eu news is cataclysmic, so is weighing on eu. market is focussed mainly on eu hence the huge drop in aud/usd(even more than euro)
  • #37,734
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:52pm Dec 14, 2011 8:52pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
i know; but we are at the lows; and are down a lot this week; i think we could get some buying here; maybe???

maybe i was wrong! they must be out of hopium!
Best is to still enjoy the ride "Down Under" and once it is truly down under, your chart will tell u that it is time to buy. For now lets enjoy the show and see where market wants to take us
  • #37,735
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:54pm Dec 14, 2011 8:54pm
Quoting Halba
asia it is ranging just like yesterday. although the eu news is cataclysmic, so is weighing on eu. market is focussed mainly on eu hence the huge drop in aud/usd(even more than euro)
  • #37,736
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:54pm Dec 14, 2011 8:54pm
very low ranges in asia
  • #37,737
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:55pm Dec 14, 2011 8:55pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
i know; but we are at the lows; and are down a lot this week; i think we could get some buying here; maybe???
I have been looking for a proper retrace since yesterday, but so far I'm coming up dead wrong. "Oversold" is, sadly, the only real reason I can see for short-term bullishness at the moment. Chinese data wasn't a mover and Aussie looks sideways-to-slightly-lower in my view. I'm sidelining for a strong confirmation of a move away from this .99ish range.
  • #37,738
  • Dec 14, 2011 9:04pm Dec 14, 2011 9:04pm
just ranging; i am flat again.

Quoting saculer
I have been looking for a proper retrace since yesterday, but so far I'm coming up dead wrong. "Oversold" is, sadly, the only real reason I can see for short-term bullishness at the moment. Chinese data wasn't a mover and Aussie looks sideways-to-slightly-lower in my view. I'm sidelining for a strong confirmation of a move away from this .99ish range.
  • #37,739
  • Dec 14, 2011 9:04pm Dec 14, 2011 9:04pm
looks like u got some profit mpurdy, it failed to break 9880

it seems the best thing for AUD is the 4.25% interest rate and the fact the dollar is zero yield. the extent to which the rBA cut the rate will determine where this ends up.
  • #37,740
  • Dec 14, 2011 9:06pm Dec 14, 2011 9:06pm
The China Data is better, much better than expected.. go long AUD.

oh wait.. that number is still bad below 50... crap SELLLLLLLL

now its a tug o war

im waiting to sell on rallies. in @ 0.9910 since NY. position from above parity already closed
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