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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #15,061
  • Dec 14, 2011 7:22pm Dec 14, 2011 7:22pm
Quoting kibescorp
Amazing how many people are still expecting a correction to come "anytime now."

It's not going to happen.

This downtrend has JUST started,
This longer term downtrend started in 2008 and it's been a nasty bitch to trade this year. Price doesn't move in a straight line. There are opportunities to trade in either direction and a lot of that depends on the timeframe you preffer to trade as well as your trading style and strategy.

- If you are a position and fundamental trader like PT you would sell and hang on for the ride off the monthly, weekly and daily charts.

- If you are a swing trading momentum like me off the daily or 240 you will ride the momentum train whichever way she wants to run and keep an eye out for the train to stop.

- If you are intraday trading or scalping like Gopher or Buma you are trading whatever opportunity she wants to give you at the moment, taking the money off the table and letting her tell you what she wants to do next.

Money seeks yield and all this market needs to produce a face ripping rally that can leave your shorts in the dust in this thin year end trading is a good rumor or a little hopium out of Europe.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #15,062
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:46pm Dec 14, 2011 8:46pm
Quoting PipKiller
This longer term downtrend started in 2008 and it's been a nasty bitch to trade this year. Price doesn't move in a straight line. There are opportunities to trade in either direction and a lot of that depends on the timeframe you preffer to trade as well as your trading style and strategy.

- If you are a position and fundamental trader like PT you would sell and hang on for the ride off the monthly, weekly and daily charts.

- If you are a swing trading momentum like me off the daily or 240 you will ride the momentum train whichever way she...
Very well said.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #15,063
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:51pm Dec 14, 2011 8:51pm
Quoting PipKiller
A lot of high and medium impact European and US data tomorrow. A lot of people talking up the Swiss raising the floor too that I think is going to disappoint when they don't.
This is a really interesting subject...

Some people might not be able to explain CHF's crosses correlation to whatever used to be normal.

When the SNB decided to put a floor on EURCHF, they CLEARLY STATED THAT, they were more likely to short EURJPY and EURUSD, instead of buying the Euro.

So.. if you look at your daily charts, you will notice that CHF was the only safe-haven currency that decreased in value... Actually, the USD and JPY strenghtened, what does it mean?

SNB cannot do anything unless they cut RRR, or buy toxic bonds (which they won't).
  • #15,064
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:58pm Dec 14, 2011 8:58pm
Quoting kibescorp
All I'm concerned about right now is what the best price would be to add MORE lots to my short, not pulling out and certainly not placing a BUY order.
You got my vouch.
  • #15,065
  • Dec 14, 2011 9:02pm Dec 14, 2011 9:02pm
Quoting Pbh
You got my vouch.
But hey, want a really easy to understand advice?

"This is the way markets are"

I don't really know what Dragui is going to say, or what Sarkozy, Merkel are going to pretend to be doing, or even if we'll have another plan to make a plan like around 1 month ago, but this will always happen

They just can't see their UNION fading, without showing THEIR "CONCERN".

  • #15,066
  • Dec 14, 2011 9:06pm Dec 14, 2011 9:06pm
--Thursday, Dec. 15: Spanish bond auction.

And this gets even more interesting

Let's wait for the downgrades and the inevitable Greek default our prophet (kno) has talked about
  • #15,067
  • Dec 14, 2011 10:09pm Dec 14, 2011 10:09pm
I must confess these 50 pips from the low are sweet
They encourage me to do some short side scalping after the London open.
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  • #15,068
  • Dec 14, 2011 10:26pm Dec 14, 2011 10:26pm
Quoting PipTrapper
I think he was looking for something like this...

http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A...qHFJBE_EO7q-0g
Kiaaaaaaaa ~ !
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #15,069
  • Dec 14, 2011 10:32pm Dec 14, 2011 10:32pm
Still looking for something in the basement. Enter 1.305, S 1.325. T 1.278
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Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #15,070
  • Dec 14, 2011 10:46pm Dec 14, 2011 10:46pm
What if?

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...nomic-and.html
  • #15,071
  • Dec 14, 2011 10:50pm Dec 14, 2011 10:50pm
Quoting Pbh
What if?

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...nomic-and.html
I think the UK would be wise, but it would be too late.
  • #15,072
  • Dec 14, 2011 11:08pm Dec 14, 2011 11:08pm
The euro was a doomed project from the start, and now we are starting to see the endgame play out. Today, the euro fell to an 11-month low against the U.S. dollar. As I write this, the EUR/USD is at 1.2983. Back in July, the EUR/USD was over 1.45. As panic has swept the financial markets, the euro has lost more than 3 percent over the past three days. But this is just the beginning. When the euro drops below 1.20, analysts will talk about the collapse of the euro. When the euro falls toward parity with the dollar, headlines around the world will scream about the death of the euro. But when the European financial system finally collapses, we may very well actually see the end of the euro. Yes, it actually could happen. The eurozone, as it is currently constructed, simply does not work. You just can't take 17 different nations that have 17 different fiscal policies, 17 different tax policies and 17 different economic agendas and cram them all into a single currency and expect the thing to work. The euro is a doomed currency, and if a big nation like Germany decides to walk away at some point the game is going to be over.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...nd-of-the-euro
  • #15,073
  • Dec 14, 2011 11:28pm Dec 14, 2011 11:28pm
The easiest way to deal with a debt spiral is to let it keep going and going. That is what the United States has done. Sure, "kicking the can down the road" makes the crisis much worse in the long run, but bringing the pain into the present is not a lot of fun either.

Europe has decided to do something that is unprecedented in the post-World War II era. They have decided to put very strict limits on budget deficits and to impose tough sanctions on any nations that break the rules. They have also decided that they are not going to allow the European Central Bank to fund the debts of troubled nations with reckless money printing.


http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...ic-proportions
  • #15,074
  • Dec 15, 2011 12:10am Dec 15, 2011 12:10am
Quoting Pbh

Europe has ... decided that they are not going to allow the European Central Bank to fund the debts of troubled nations with reckless money printing.


Just raised the cap to 20B a week in unsterilized bond buy backs. This is about 1.3 T a year USD. They make the Fed look cowardly. At the same time they have dropped their interest rates, reduced collateral requirements and greatly increased the term of loans. This is all in the space of 45 days or so.

And for the record, when it comes to printing money, the 1.3 T may create less money that the interest rate reduction and the easier terms on loans.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #15,075
  • Dec 15, 2011 12:19am Dec 15, 2011 12:19am
Quoting Pbh
The euro was a doomed project from the start, and now we are starting to see the endgame play out.
I am pretty sure this is what they said about the American Revolution. I am not saying that the Euro will certainly survive, only that using words like doomed is foolish because the future is uncertain.

Personally, if I were a betting man I would give better than 50% that the Euro will survive. Take out a history book and read about the last 1000 years in Europe. If that is too big a picture, focus on the last 70 years. Things are really very good, and I doubt they will get even as bad as they were in the Soviet Union 20 years ago. But again, the future is uncertain and anybody that tells you otherwise is trying to sell you something or is off their rocker.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #15,076
  • Dec 15, 2011 12:37am Dec 15, 2011 12:37am
Quoting AaronWard
I am pretty sure this is what they said about the American Revolution. I am not saying that the Euro will certainly survive, only that using words like doomed is foolish because the future is uncertain.

Personally, if I were a betting man I would give better than 50% that the Euro will survive. Take out a history book and read about the last 1000 years in Europe. If that is too big a picture, focus on the last 70 years. Things are really very good, and I doubt they will get even as bad as they were in the Soviet Union 20 years ago. But again,...
Will the euro disappear? As Aaron says, the future is uncertain. Right now it is hurting bad though. Looks like we could see a run at the multi-year low. At least I hope so
  • #15,077
  • Dec 15, 2011 12:51am Dec 15, 2011 12:51am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Will the euro disappear? As Aaron says, the future is uncertain. Right now it is hurting bad though. Looks like we could see a run at the multi-year low. At least I hope so
Hopefully it will go back up. I closed out my 1.385 at 1.325 and my 1.34 at 1.29. I'm flat though not broke. Life sucks.

Whats more, my broker is on the fritz and I am starting to worry about my deposit.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #15,078
  • Dec 15, 2011 12:56am Dec 15, 2011 12:56am
I'm not saying there won't be retracements along the way. I would want there to be. Otherwise, a never-ending plummet south would result in the end of the currency very quickly ... and then how would I make any money?

Selling the euro as quickly as possible at the start of any downtrend is the greatest, most profitable strategy I have ever stuck with. Once it's no longer an option, that's going to change everything, and instead of altering my mentality completely, I'll probably just stop trading altogether.
  • #15,079
  • Dec 15, 2011 1:12am Dec 15, 2011 1:12am
added long here
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resistance possibly terminated possible channeling within 1x1 angles (pink trendlines)

all i need to watch for is the 1x1 angle (yellow upcoming trendline) if it gives no reaction and wedges i will add. if it bounces down all longs invalidated.
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or perhaps the red one in this chart could be a TP opportunity and as well opportunity to go short
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@PT, the 3200 is already tested. anything that pushes it up either tests the supply there or just blasts up due to intervention.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,080
  • Dec 15, 2011 1:23am Dec 15, 2011 1:23am
Quoting bumapatria
@PT, the 3200 is already tested. anything that pushes it up either tests the supply there or just blasts up due to intervention.
It wasn't fully tested on the daily charts yet.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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