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  • #574,961
  • Dec 14, 2011 6:12pm Dec 14, 2011 6:12pm
Quoting sidhujag
You didnt understand my second point you flip 4 heads and I guess tails. I have a 50/50 chance mathmatically but momentum tells me I have a 82% chance of a reversal. I wouldnt bet for 4 heads in a row unless i got like 20 tails in a row or something
That's not right:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
  • #574,962
  • Dec 14, 2011 6:47pm Dec 14, 2011 6:47pm
Quoting Arhs99
That's not right:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
true in theory but in reality ive been using it everytime at the casino and consistently turning 1000 into 5000. I guess luck is mathematically void aswell? Look there is more in the world than math even though boundaries are defined in math as what life is but these are the boundaries we founded. We still dont even understand he brain completely let alone breakdown chances of something happening or not
  • #574,963
  • Dec 14, 2011 7:18pm Dec 14, 2011 7:18pm
Quoting sidhujag
Yes 50 50 but spread effects your outcome if its truly random. If it cost you to flip he coin so no your math is wrong even in a perfect world.

You didnt understand my second point you flip 4 heads and I guess tails. I have a 50/50 chance mathmatically but momentum tells me I have a 82% chance of a reversal. I wouldnt bet for 4 heads in a row unless i got like 20 tails in a row or something

You need get this rubbish out your head, is counterproductive and very dangerous.
"everytime toss a coin odds are 50 / 50 even if you toss 10 000 times and everytime is tails, next toss is still 50 /50

You tinking is bad for trading
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #574,964
  • Dec 14, 2011 7:20pm Dec 14, 2011 7:20pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
You need get this rubbish out your head, is counterproductive and very dangerous.
"everytime toss a coin odds are 50 / 50 even if you toss 10 000 times and everytime is tails, next toss is still 50 /50

You tinking is bad for trading
I only apply to roullette and its not bad for my wallet? What's yours been saying lately?
  • #574,965
  • Dec 14, 2011 7:34pm Dec 14, 2011 7:34pm
Quoting sidhujag
I only apply to roullette and its not bad for my wallet? What's yours been saying lately?
A roulette wheel is based on independent events. Each event has NO correlation to the last one therefore the odds are always the same and are not affected by the past.

A currency pair is a variation of a random walk:

Random Walk is a time series in which the value of the series in one period is the value of the series in the previous period plus an unpredictable random error.

Many studies have tested and found that currency exchange rates follow a random walk. Consistent with the second point made above, some studies have found that sophisticated exchange rate forecasting models cannot outperform forecasts made using the random walk model and that the best forecast of the future exchange rate is the current exchange rate.
  • #574,966
  • Dec 14, 2011 7:51pm Dec 14, 2011 7:51pm
Quoting lolygagv2
A roulette wheel is based on independent events. Each event has NO correlation to the last one therefore the odds are always the same and are not affected by the past.

A currency pair is a variation of a random walk:

Random Walk is a time series in which the value of the series in one period is the value of the series in the previous period plus an unpredictable random error.

Many studies have tested and found that currency exchange rates follow a random walk. Consistent with the second point made above, some studies have found that...
Yup i know the math, its what led to options and black-sholes model.
  • #574,967
  • Dec 14, 2011 7:53pm Dec 14, 2011 7:53pm
hello all...heavy raining here...same as Euro...its falling...
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #574,968
  • Dec 14, 2011 7:53pm Dec 14, 2011 7:53pm
Quoting sidhujag
I only apply to roullette and its not bad for my wallet? What's yours been saying lately?
Im happy you succeed in casino, you are very rare, odds are always heavily stacked in favour of house, you is negative before you even place bet, have minimal ability to alter odds, is coin toss with 3 coins i normal and 2 with house both sides I never go casino sorry
Gambler traders come and go, successful long term traders also gambler agreed, but with much effort, research, "can" alter odds, atleast have a fighting chance, biggest enemy is broker bastards, trading is business, no room for emotion.

I no offence bro, just friendly advice, gambling is 95% emotion, 95% of trader is fail, can you see a picture forming.

As "my" wallet, I been trading 12 years last 6 fulltime, prior I did 2 years demostratoring
Is never been get rich quick scheme like is casino, but I do ok thanks

Kiwi
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #574,969
  • Dec 14, 2011 7:55pm Dec 14, 2011 7:55pm
Looks like a bit of compression happing to this dead fish..Shit, I think I'll crack a bottle....How's that for a plan?
  • #574,970
  • Dec 14, 2011 7:56pm Dec 14, 2011 7:56pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
Im happy you succeed in casino, you are very rare, odds are always heavily stacked in favour of house, you is negative before you even place bet, have minimal ability to alter odds, is coin toss with 3 coins i normal and 2 with house both sides I never go casino sorry
Gambler traders come and go, successful long term traders also gambler agreed, but with much effort, research, "can" alter odds, atleast have a fighting chance, biggest enemy is broker bastards, trading is business, no room for emotion.

I no offence bro, just friendly advice,...
haha sounds good, I only go once in a blue moon with friends and apply my strategy then, so small chance of losing, I win most of the time and walk away. No need to be greedy. Edge is against me, if I keep playing I'll lose.

Take the short term variation in profit loss when in profit and walk away lol
  • #574,971
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:01pm Dec 14, 2011 8:01pm
Quoting the redlion
not necessarily

prove to me how spread and commissions make it 49/50

when you look at an open

daily
hourly
monthly

what is the thing that for the most part remains constant?


closes above or below open (i give credit to Crucial point on this he made me see the importance of interpreting candles not only to look at Price action, and momentum, displacement, capacity but as a reference in a point in time)

what is the chances that price closes above or below open?

that is the most important question to in my opinion to ask myself

once...
100% agree
Back test until eyeball fall out, open is easiliy best point of reference, is possible to success trade just with open on chart, of course can improve stratergy multiple tf's trend pivots, blah blah , but I have found is best starting reference point
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #574,972
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:04pm Dec 14, 2011 8:04pm
USDX daily
Attached Image
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #574,973
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:06pm Dec 14, 2011 8:06pm
Quoting sidhujag
haha sounds good, I only go once in a blue moon with friends and apply my strategy then, so small chance of losing, I win most of the time and walk away. No need to be greedy. Edge is against me, if I keep playing I'll lose.

Take the short term variation in profit loss when in profit and walk away lol
yes agree, but, casino spend many many millions develop mechanisms, liminal and subliminal to over ride conscious thinking like that, leave when you up, if you can do congrates, but I repeat 95% leave casion with empty wallet, even when is winner, "they be back" for that winning buzz, oops eventually they will be 95%ter
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #574,974
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:07pm Dec 14, 2011 8:07pm
Somebody needs to stir the pot before she brakes me thinks..cyn is a bit maybe...

Quoting johncen
USDX daily
  • #574,975
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:11pm Dec 14, 2011 8:11pm
Quoting johncen
USDX daily
Hey bro, yes inverted H&S fighting cup& handle, very critical point, lots of other tl s&r etc etc, higher tf and lower tf, wish it was mid year and not dec

Ladies all corelate, wary swissy and geppy, I think is six shooter time
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #574,976
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:11pm Dec 14, 2011 8:11pm
http://i.imgur.com/LKDiD.png

will EU cross all the limit to more down?
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  • #574,977
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:14pm Dec 14, 2011 8:14pm
Posted this earlier if anybody gives a shit....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu daily.gif Size: 55 KB
  • #574,978
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:19pm Dec 14, 2011 8:19pm
  •  XDorkX
  • | Joined Sep 2011 | Status: I'm Polish & better looking than U | 183 Posts
Quoting Chillypiper
Posted this earlier if anybody gives a shit....
i give a shit. keep posting, i tried impressing the ladies with it but they arent impressed so i guess ill just use it as a learning reference.

Thanks.
  • #574,979
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:20pm Dec 14, 2011 8:20pm
what do u all think about gold and silver right now
  • #574,980
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:22pm Dec 14, 2011 8:22pm
Quoting johncen
USDX daily
Hey bro is weekly USD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD weekly 15 12 2011.png Size: 40 KB
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
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