EURUSD

Must be at mental hospital.

Can you expplain how you are coming up with a monthly avg of 1.3368? I am not sure how you are coming up with that number. Than you.

Need to make some money tonight, I think I have to buy at least 5 kindles for Christmas. Maybe more!

please don't go too personal, limit it to trading level

did you pick any direction ? ,

down side i have 3000, 2958/50 , but i am not feeling comfortable going short

now i have logged into my gambling account and scalping macro lots,

I made only 45 pips. Never thought the euro would go in a free fall and trapped most of the longs at 1.31-1.32 levels.

If I am not wrong most of us did not catch this fall totally.

downside i got 2968~and 2870~~
I dont see any direction right now...still waiting ..

I see a huge head and shoulders on the daily right now. Anybody think it will fall below 1.3000? If so where?

Had at least 2 noticeable short setups since the market opened on Sunday.

how many trading days in a month?

5.5 in a week
5.5(4)=22

however i simplified that to a 20 day it really doesnt make much difference

take the last 20 closing prices and divide by 20 that is the average, which is a simple moving average of 20.
you can get the mode, or the mean, if you like but the concept is the same. we want to figure out what the fair market value is, as a reference for mean reversion, that is actually what moving averages are for, not really for b/s interactive s/r lines or for cross over b/s. it is a way to use mathematics and statistics.

bollinger 20,2 is basically a monthly average with (2) standard deviations, now standard deviations, are simply a statistical tool for dispersion so basically given that the average price is X, normal variations around an average is the STDV (1) encompasses 65% , and (2) 95%, basically it is a range that denotes margin of error.

why is this helpful, well the average is the fair market value, as it is the average price of X sample being observed, and normal variations or dispersion around the average would be enveloped by standard deviations. if we have outliers then usually a mean reversion, is expected or it could signal a change in trend.

as right now, we are trading below (2) standard deviations from the monthly average, which means
1 either it is a great opportunity to buy due to price being so cheap
or
2 a possible change in direction (in this case bearish)

now looking at the fact that we have been trading in a down trend since 1.49ish, and the fact that fundamentals support downside pressure,

the last 3 peaks of the euro have been progressively lower, and the fact that the euro failed to pushed and stay above 1.40's,

i think a bearish picture i being painted.

but in the markets one must manage risk AS IF price was purely random, so i would think that if we fail to go below 1.30 today, then price might in fact be cheap right now

Extremely tight trading...You can make one pip either way in this trading. :/

volume beginning to enter

Any Comments? I got 80 on the down today and picked up a retrace buy at the low but I'm thinking about ditching it because of this pattern.

Any Advice?

i think he had s/l at 1.314X so should be ok.

attack

i think we should see some actions in 57 mins...

the market's been ranging for the past 9 hours.....

What is the chance of a test of 1.3000 and subsequent bounce encompassing todays range to start off the session?

Pretty good i reakon.

This is what happens when you get drunk with icetea

happy trading

Morning , today,s update , time to see decisions & possible turmoils .
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post5221074
fontu