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Nb 10.0 trend trading system

  • #821
  • Dec 13, 2011 8:07am Dec 13, 2011 8:07am
Quoting cmeade2
two comments.

First, it's clear there can be significant differences in the daily charts depending on the time zones. I use gmt +2 which is beneficial for a number of reasons (e.g., the day/week starts when the market opens on Sunday/Monday). That said, on my daily chart there was a downward slope on the blue (2 MA) line, when you made your trade. For me that would have put up a big flag about the trade.

Second if you look at the H4, there is clearly a significant downward slope on the MA 8. Again, this should limited your enthusiasm for a long...
I think we have some misunderstanding here. I didn't trade long.
I entered short @1.0038 just below the red D1 support line.
This is the reason I am posting this and trying to figure out want went wrong (the price went long). I would like to learn what mistake I made.
Maybe I didn't spot some S+R level on lower time frame...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #822
  • Dec 13, 2011 8:27am Dec 13, 2011 8:27am
Quoting thevenin
I think we have some misunderstanding here. I didn't trade long.
I entered short @1.0038 just below the red D1 support line.
This is the reason I am posting this and trying to figure out want went wrong (the price went long). I would like to learn what mistake I made.
Maybe I didn't spot some S+R level on lower time frame...

Attachment

No real mistake, you took a trade, sometimes they work sometimes not. I still get losing trades. You see on the screen i have two trades that are losers at this moment but since Dec. 1 I have had 7 successful winning trades selling the aud/usd. I have been playing off of that weekly high all month and doing very well from it. Not part of the posted system but that is some of the things I look for.
  • #823
  • Dec 13, 2011 8:28am Dec 13, 2011 8:28am
OK my apology I was looking at the wrong bar.

I'm still figuring this out myself, so you have to take my comments with a grain of salt. My basic observation is that you have to be very careful simply trading on the cross of a daily support/resistance line (i.e., without any other information). It seems to me that you have to look for further confirmation on either the H4 or the H1 for that these levels have been broken. Ideally this is a cross of the MA2 in the direction of the trade. Notably you had such a cross on the H1 about 4 hours into the day. But the problem is that the price never crossed the D1 level on the bar, so the trade would not have been triggered.

Hope this is helpful

Quoting thevenin
I think we have some misunderstanding here. I didn't trade long.
I entered short @1.0038 just below the red D1 support line.
This is the reason I am posting this and trying to figure out want went wrong (the price went long). I would like to learn what mistake I made.
Maybe I didn't spot some S+R level on lower time frame...

Attachment
  • #824
  • Dec 13, 2011 8:36am Dec 13, 2011 8:36am
Quoting nanningbob
Do you use a Chinese broker here in China??
Personal Forex trade is forbidden by China goverment so any broker in china is unlawful, that means your fund no safety.

In china fxcm seems has a best service , you can fund to fxcm and trade with ATC borker. This is proved by some friends include me.

fxcm has a advanced Employee In Shenyang .
  • #825
  • Dec 13, 2011 9:35am Dec 13, 2011 9:35am
Quoting cmeade2
[...]But the problem is that the price never crossed the D1 level on the bar, so the trade would not have been triggered.
Hope this is helpful
What do you mean by this? D1 chart shows that price crossed D1 S1=1.00528 just before midnight...
Am I taking you wrong?

Regards.
  • #826
  • Dec 13, 2011 9:59am Dec 13, 2011 9:59am
Quoting thevenin
What do you mean by this? D1 chart shows that price crossed D1 S1=1.00528 just before midnight...
Am I taking you wrong?

Regards.
I would just look at it and say that you were coming into the 1.0000 psyche level. Just scroll back on H4 and you can see that price bounces around as it approaches this level from either above or below.

I would have picked it up short on the other side of 1.0000 and as your next S was at 0.96630 then there was enough room to enjoy a short trade if it presented itself.
  • #827
  • Dec 13, 2011 10:43am Dec 13, 2011 10:43am
You are right that this happened. My point is that this event by itself is usually not sufficient to make a trade, even if it is in the direction of the H4 trend which the short trade was. As I said, I think you can get much more confirmation for the trade (i.e., there won't be a reversal) if you can also see a cross of the price over the MA 2 on the H1 or the H4. That didn't happen in this case.

Quoting thevenin
What do you mean by this? D1 chart shows that price crossed D1 S1=1.00528 just before midnight...
Am I taking you wrong?

Regards.
  • #828
  • Dec 13, 2011 11:56am Dec 13, 2011 11:56am
Bob,

How many times do you read the charts and make your decisions. I am following this process.

1. Look at the weekly. Draw the weekly D/R lines and judge the weekly trend.
2. Look at Daily. Assume the Weekly Trend will remain. See if want to enter long, short or CTR.
3. Switch on 1H or 4H EA

I then try to read and adjust my positions around 3-4 times a day.

But I find this to be very time consuming. It takes time to read the weekly charts, daylies, annotate notes, check the 4H/1H timeframes to see what the EA has done and whether I want to intervene or let the position ride.

Any suggestions on managing this better ? (ofcourse reducing the # of pairs is one logical choice).

Also I am finding that the ranging pairs with 1H CTR are much more predictable and give more pips than the trending pairs. I know earlier your used to prefer CTR but said that with Squalo's SR indicator your trend trades are much better.
  • #829
  • Dec 13, 2011 1:37pm Dec 13, 2011 1:37pm
Bob / Others,

or the trending pairs, do you recommend following 10.1 exclusively and just suspend trading during Ranging periods ?

My experience was that most of the Trending Pairs (EUR, GBP, AUD etc) were ranging till about 2 days back and I put on the 1H CTR or 4H CTR on those pairs.

However, yesterday they have all made a run and looks like they will start trending again atleast for a couple of days. Since they have made a big move, I dont know if I should

1. close the CTR trades for losses (some of them over 100 pips) and ride the Trend wave.
OR
2. hedge the CTR trades and then recover when the next CTR stage come. In the mean time I can ride the Trend wave.

For others who were doing CTR on EUR, GBP, AUD and now that the prices have moved beyond the CTR range, what has been your strategy ?

Thanks
  • #830
  • Dec 13, 2011 2:03pm Dec 13, 2011 2:03pm
Hello all,

my current EURUSD sell is far beyond the S/R and it looks like a good run south. Where would you set the TP and SL.

Most times I used the blue for an SL, but would like to know where you would set the exit?

Bambo0

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  • #831
  • Dec 13, 2011 5:14pm Dec 13, 2011 5:14pm
Quoting ashinvest
Bob,

How many times do you read the charts and make your decisions. I am following this process.

1. Look at the weekly. Draw the weekly D/R lines and judge the weekly trend.
2. Look at Daily. Assume the Weekly Trend will remain. See if want to enter long, short or CTR.
3. Switch on 1H or 4H EA

I then try to read and adjust my positions around 3-4 times a day.

But I find this to be very time consuming. It takes time to read the weekly charts, daylies, annotate notes, check the 4H/1H timeframes to see what the EA has done and whether...
Once you study a weekly, it is not going to change from a day by day perspective. I only need to check them once a week or when I make a critical decision. I usually look at them on weekends and get a perspective of the coming week. I am not a fundamentals guy but I dont ignore them also. Since I live and work in China I understand the effect of the Chinese economy on commodity currencies, especially the AUD. The Aud has to come down and I think you can see the stress on it now. As the Euro economy struggles, they import less from China, same with the USA. What most people dont understand about the China economic miracle is the government here has been borrowing heavily to keep it going until the Western economies pick up. Well, that is not happening, a little USA but not enough. So sooner or later they have to quit importing commodities from Australia. We are seeing signs of that now. Like I did earlier with the Euro I will not do buys on AUD currencies, except aud/nzd. I know they are not going to any new highs so I can easily survive any upward movements. I just have to patiently wait for the sell trades to develop. So I do do long term trading.

Anyway, once I know a weekly for the week no need to restudy it. Then about every 4 hours I recheck my charts and make adjustments. 5 minutes is all I need. I trade small lots so if I make a mistake it is no big deal. I have had 34 wins and 9 losers this week so far. But I take a lot of trades and no worries about them. The Euro is easy to trade right now and has been for months. Just keep reentering sell on the retracements. No need for deep study on that one. Same with the AUD. That is where I am doing really well right now. Anyway, I have started my closing down process and hope to clear every trade out by Friday. I am not starting any new trades except eur and aud, so when a pair is closed out I am done with it for the year.
  • #832
  • Dec 13, 2011 5:24pm Dec 13, 2011 5:24pm
Quoting Bambo0
Hello all,

my current EURUSD sell is far beyond the S/R and it looks like a good run south. Where would you set the TP and SL.

Most times I used the blue for an SL, but would like to know where you would set the exit?

Bambo0

Attachment
I closed that one out this morning and will look for a retracement to reenter. My next one is the break at 130 going on below and I will set another after it retraces back to a previous D R line. Weekly Support is at 128.80 so that is where I think it will end up next. The problem with the euro now is if suddenly a news leaks, They solved the problem. That will make it bounce like crazy so I am wary of false happy news coming out of Europe right now. I take my profit and then wait for a retrace.

Also lack of liquidity at Christmas time can cause a currency to make sudden big moves that people like to blame on the brokers but it is that time of the year. It will not show up on your charts any more but the nzd/usd bounced over 1000 pips on Christmas eve in 2006. Spikes of 2-500 pips can happen so beware. They cleanse the history of that stuff, why back testing on MT4 is mostly useless.
  • #833
  • Dec 13, 2011 5:33pm Dec 13, 2011 5:33pm
i have a profit

1. eurcad sell +43 pips


running
2 eurjpy sell +102 pips
3 gbpusd sell 68 pips
4 eurusd sell 177 pips

today i make a be on running pairs

muchas gracias
  • #834
  • Dec 13, 2011 6:13pm Dec 13, 2011 6:13pm
i close all

today +415 pips on one day jejejeje
  • #835
  • Dec 13, 2011 8:48pm Dec 13, 2011 8:48pm
Quoting jucaorma
i close all

today +415 pips on one day jejejeje
Feels good doesnt it, hope you have many more.
  • #836
  • Dec 13, 2011 11:27pm Dec 13, 2011 11:27pm
Just to give and idea how taking profit and and catching the retracement works. The eur/usd from Oct. 31 to now has gone down about 1159 pips. However, I close and reopen on the retracements which lead me to 31 winning trades at 43 pip average win. That totals 1333 pips. So I feel I get more pips pocketing profits once or twice a day versus a hold and wait. This gains me more pips profit. It also allows me to enter more than one trade at a time on a pair since I will add trades at the different levels or S/R. So in a 1159 pip move I gained 1333. How is that for risk versus reward? I look at things much differently than traditional thinking.
  • #837
  • Dec 14, 2011 2:20am Dec 14, 2011 2:20am
Hi Bob,

I have set the following pending orders based on the Daily Chart. Kindly confirm whether they are correct. Thanks:

USD/CAD - Pending [email protected]
AUD.USD - Pending Sell@ 0.9663
NZ/USD - Pending Sell@ 0.7369
GB/JPY - Pending Sell@ 119.97
EUR/AUD - Pending Sell@ 1.2958
USD/JPY - Pending Buy@ 78.10

Kindly correct me if I am wrong. Thank You
  • #838
  • Dec 14, 2011 3:39am Dec 14, 2011 3:39am
Quoting tillandran
Hi Bob,

I have set the following pending orders based on the Daily Chart. Kindly confirm whether they are correct. Thanks:

USD/CAD - Pending [email protected]
AUD.USD - Pending Sell@ 0.9663
NZ/USD - Pending Sell@ 0.7369
GB/JPY - Pending Sell@ 119.97
EUR/AUD - Pending Sell@ 1.2958
USD/JPY - Pending Buy@ 78.10

Kindly correct me if I am wrong. Thank You
tillandran,

I will choose the AUDUSD for comment. The .9663 is a major line of support and a bounce off this line is expected. In any event making a trade dead on this line is not recommended. If the PA breaks through by 10-20 pips then it will likely break to .9386. If the PA bounces it will likely top out at .9867 but may only hook back much sooner to .9663.

Setting pending orders this far in advance is strictly gambling or guessing. There are no valid reasons for doing either. Trade with the trend, yes, but remember there will be corrective action along the way. Just because you see a target on a chart doesn't mean the PA will come to it or blast through it or bounce off it. It may just hit this level and go sideways for weeks. Each one of these scenarios can be profitable if traded the correct way. Defining a plan to trade each possible scenario should be your goal and then set your trap and wait for the PA to come to you.

This is like hunting rabbits with a dog. We do not chase the rabbit but wait for the rabbit to come to us. When the rabbit comes into sight we take our best shot.

When the PA approaches a major SR you should be ready to close the trade and you don't define that line to the very pip. Once you close the trade then you reset the trap only this time it's for determining direction to open the next trade. An understanding of Price patterns as well as chart patterns will go a long way to helping you trade.

Trade Well and Prosper,

Johnny
  • #839
  • Dec 14, 2011 4:18am Dec 14, 2011 4:18am
Successful trades should not really be measured in pips but should be recorded in your trading journal in terms of trading success measured by sticking to your plan. By constantly measuring your performance in terms of pips gained you could be setting yourself up for a fall.
Trading success comes from the 6'' between your ears. You must know yourself and be at peace with your emotions to be successful in this field. Traders should carry out Belbin and MBTI personality tests to ascertain their make-up and try to match that make up with their choice of trading method and time frame.

For example, if you are highly active, impatient, and seek thrills then maybe swing trading is not for you - you would be better not fighting against your personality, but going with it. You maybe better suited to trading forex or futures on the 15m chart. 'You get out of the market what you want' as Ed Sekota once said. Many people trade for recognition and ego massaging over making money; I have been guilty of this. If you are constantly telling people about your winning trades and bragging on forums and to friends and family, then you are trading not to make money, but for gratification, the need to be right and peer prowess. Until you rid yourself of these traits it is my belief that you will never become successful.

There are many great books on trading but the best are not books on methods and technicals; the best books study trader psychology and explore personality and emotions. You need to fully own your method, stop reading the news of watching the 'noise' on CNBC. How many of the really great traders such as Bill Dunn, Ed Sekota, Mike Coval do you see on CNBC? Hardly any, because they stick with their method and don't need to brag to fill emotional requirements on CNBC!

For people interested in this subject I would recommend a short book called 'The inner voice of Trading' by Martin.
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #840
  • Dec 14, 2011 8:56am Dec 14, 2011 8:56am
Quoting tillandran
Hi Bob,

I have set the following pending orders based on the Daily Chart. Kindly confirm whether they are correct. Thanks:

USD/CAD - Pending [email protected]
AUD.USD - Pending Sell@ 0.9663
NZ/USD - Pending Sell@ 0.7369
GB/JPY - Pending Sell@ 119.97
EUR/AUD - Pending Sell@ 1.2958
USD/JPY - Pending Buy@ 78.10

Kindly correct me if I am wrong. Thank You
It is hard to comment on trades this time of the year. I would probably not do usd/jpy or nzd/usd. I havent looked at the numbers but the rest probably are decent. Again this timeof the year is difficult because companies are closing out their books and trading gets real slow.
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