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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #14,681
  • Dec 13, 2011 6:30am Dec 13, 2011 6:30am
Oh No, Incredible is suspended. He was such a great contrarian indicator. All you had to do to make money was take the other side of his trades.

Sorry to hear Cloggie, Nub and MLA got whacked too.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #14,682
  • Dec 13, 2011 6:32am Dec 13, 2011 6:32am
Seems like a H&S Pattern on 15M - Lets see how it develop first
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #14,683
  • Dec 13, 2011 6:43am Dec 13, 2011 6:43am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Ok, to make it even more easier. There goes rumour around FF, that POBC is prepared to lower RRR of another 100bp. That would be significant bullish event. And Bloomberg is rumouring, that Bernie is going to increase IR, which is nonscence imo.

T
TY

Actually I heard last night on CNBC world the rumor was China might lower RRR 200 bps.

I'm caught up on the news I need to see, and really don't see anything that stands out. Mostly Jawboning and rumor. After yesterdays big move I expect we will give up a bit today and it may be whippy but I still see overall momentum as risk off for now.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #14,684
  • Dec 13, 2011 6:55am Dec 13, 2011 6:55am
Ok, I am about to have a meal, so I wont be posting, but come on guys, speculate with me:

New Dark force of coordinated CBs emerged. PBOC cooperates with FED and the rest of the team now.

ECB fired all bullets on Thursday and it didnt help to the markets.

Bernie is unable to do another QE3, since he needs to save it for presidential elections. Moreover, yield are low now, so he doesnt have to do it now. Also US data are good. And he cant boost the markets by lowering rates since they are already at 0.

So whats left to boost markets? Last soldier of Dark force - POBC - lowering RRR.

So this rumour might be true imo.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #14,685
  • Dec 13, 2011 7:01am Dec 13, 2011 7:01am
Quoting AaronWard
Likelihood of a lower rate is very high. Timing, though is an issue. Not sure that the POBC works with the Fed. Chinese stock market is very unhappy... it retuerned to 2001 range. Which, when you think about the Chinese economy growing by about 300% since then, is pretty dire.
While the Fed may lower the swap rate. I believe they will stay on hold with Europe in focus so they have some ammunition left to cushion the fallout of another major risk event.

Me personally I want to see the markets rally, rally, rally into the rumors this morning...... So she can sell off on the announcement this afternoon.

Buy the rumor, sell the fact
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #14,686
  • Dec 13, 2011 7:06am Dec 13, 2011 7:06am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Ok, I am about to have a meal, so I wont be posting, but come on guys, speculate with me:

New Dark force of coordinated CBs emerged. PBOC cooperates with FED and the rest of the team now.

ECB fired all bullets on Thursday and it didnt help to the markets.

Bernie is unable to do another QE3, since he needs to save it for presidential elections. Moreover, yield are low now, so he doesnt have to do it now. Also US data are good. And he cant boost the markets by lowering rates since they are already at 0.

So whats left to boost markets?...
The ECB used bullets.... They said it was a big bazooka but it looked more like a water pistol to me.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #14,687
  • Dec 13, 2011 7:07am Dec 13, 2011 7:07am
breathing a sigh of relief. Was able to get out that long overnight at like .3 pip of a gain. Just took a short around 9:55am EST. Keeping fingers crossed. ... But it did come up off of its lows like I thought it would, now we'll see how low it goes now.
  • #14,688
  • Dec 13, 2011 7:07am Dec 13, 2011 7:07am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Ok, I am about to have a meal, so I wont be posting, but come on guys, speculate with me:

New Dark force of coordinated CBs emerged. PBOC cooperates with FED and the rest of the team now.

ECB fired all bullets on Thursday and it didnt help to the markets.

Bernie is unable to do another QE3, since he needs to save it for presidential elections. Moreover, yield are low now, so he doesnt have to do it now. Also US data are good. And he cant boost the markets by lowering rates since they are already at 0.

So whats left to boost markets?...
just looking at the last four 4h candles and they don't seem to indicate a bearish trend. Each one has had a higher low.....
patience is a virtue
  • #14,689
  • Dec 13, 2011 7:09am Dec 13, 2011 7:09am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Ok, I am about to have a meal, so I wont be posting, but come on guys, speculate with me:

New Dark force of coordinated CBs emerged. PBOC cooperates with FED and the rest of the team now.

ECB fired all bullets on Thursday and it didnt help to the markets.

Bernie is unable to do another QE3, since he needs to save it for presidential elections. Moreover, yield are low now, so he doesnt have to do it now. Also US data are good. And he cant boost the markets by lowering rates since they are already at 0.

So whats left to boost markets? Last soldier...
I have seen very little indication that the Chinese care about their own stock market. Why should they care about the US and European stock markets? Further, Chinese want a strong dollar, not a weak dollar. Most importantly, Chinese always do their own thing. When you look at POBC the simplest explanation is the simplest... they have tighted their about a dozen times this year. Now the Chinese economy is starting to tank and so the are engaging in stimulus --- of their own economy.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #14,690
  • Dec 13, 2011 7:18am Dec 13, 2011 7:18am
Quoting PipKiller
While the Fed may lower the swap rate. I believe they will stay on hold with Europe in focus so they have some ammunition left to cushion the fallout of another major risk event.

Me personally I want to see the markets rally, rally, rally into the rumors this morning...... So she can sell off on the announcement this afternoon.

Buy the rumor, sell the fact
Yeah, my personal opinion is that the Fed will wait until markets are look like they are on the bring of disaster and then jump in with ninja QE. It is what they did the last few times.

Markets are not on the edge of disaster and they have the official stance of no QE for now to maintain.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #14,691
  • Dec 13, 2011 7:26am Dec 13, 2011 7:26am
Tom. how did you decide to enter that 3843 short trade and what's telling you to still hold it? I would love to be able to get in a trade and ride it for a week or two for 300 to 500 pip gains. Thanks.

Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hi PK, I can see you have arrived. I include my answer to your previous question so you dont need to come through all that BS I am posting.

T
  • #14,692
  • Dec 13, 2011 7:34am Dec 13, 2011 7:34am
This isn't good for the Euro or risk sentiment.

Merkel rejects raising upper lending limit on ESM–Rtrs


Add 1.3150 barrier, demand zone and 1.3145 support breached. New low of 1.3143
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #14,693
  • Dec 13, 2011 7:37am Dec 13, 2011 7:37am
Quoting lovepips
just looking at the last four 4h candles and they don't seem to indicate a bearish trend. Each one has had a higher low.....
not anymore, that trend has now been broken
patience is a virtue
  • #14,694
  • Dec 13, 2011 7:37am Dec 13, 2011 7:37am
Quoting AaronWard
I have seen very little indication....
Yea, but they dont want only strong USD, but more importantly, strong EUR. Isnt Europe their main market? I believe it is. This bearish trend is hurting China a lot and their economy is already slowing down.

And I aint talking about US markets, but I thought you yourself said Asian markets are tanking as well. Anyway, Equity markets are heavily correlated, so boost of Asia in fact means boost of equities all around the world.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #14,695
  • Dec 13, 2011 7:40am Dec 13, 2011 7:40am
Quoting FXMindset
Seems like a H&S Pattern on 15M - Lets see how it develop first
Yes
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #14,696
  • Dec 13, 2011 7:41am Dec 13, 2011 7:41am
Quoting nyfx718
Tom. how did you decide to enter that 3843 short trade and what's telling you to still hold it?...
Well, thats kinda long story. My system is very complex. System told me to enter and tells me to hold it. So to put it short, I focus on fundamentals, cycles and market psychology. Fundamentals are heavy down, so I enter short positions and only on corrections and entry points are created by S/R. So right now I am waiting for almost three weeks for another correction and still nothing. Btw, these 510 pips were 1,8% of my equity, I am very carefull and am aiming to 25% per year.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #14,697
  • Dec 13, 2011 7:44am Dec 13, 2011 7:44am
Still stuck in last months channel, and respecting it quite strongly good lines to have on the chart.

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"Don't Panic..."
  • #14,698
  • Dec 13, 2011 7:44am Dec 13, 2011 7:44am
Anyone becoming rich from this?
  • #14,699
  • Dec 13, 2011 7:44am Dec 13, 2011 7:44am
YIPEE
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  • #14,700
  • Dec 13, 2011 7:44am Dec 13, 2011 7:44am
Quoting AaronWard
...Markets are not on the edge of disaster and they have the official stance of no QE for now to maintain.
I dare to disagree. They are on edge. Thats why PBOC joined FED. Below 3145 lurks oblivion.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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