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  • #14,561
  • Dec 12, 2011 5:22pm Dec 12, 2011 5:22pm
Quoting Tyoon
Exactly, price is not random (like random walk) or exact (like efficient market), it is arbitrary (due to mixed emotions and analysis of traders).
in a publication called the market micro structure they go into a complicated mathematical equation explaining the markets but to simplify it

basically the general direction long term is 40% fundamental data
and the short term movement is by information of inter dealer trading, each market makers book does not impact the market per se, but they swap and trade with each other, in a identical fashion for fear of arbitrage.

so they try to mimic each other on the price they quote at all times, and their own order flow does have an impact on the decision making.

so the market acts unpredictable in the sense that orders being executed, will move the price opposite the fundamental view creating a random-like data feed execution as inverse orders like stop losses, limits, take profits, etc move the market AWAY from fundamental economic trajectory.

however usually "these" movements are exploited and the market shifts back to a fair value, then goes in oscillations of equilibrium (low volatility) to imbalance and inefficiency in a random-like fashion.

hence EVERY single movement of the market cannot be interpreted or taken as significant.

here is our job as traders to "exploit" the inefficiencies when they occur, and limit our exposure to risk.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #14,562
  • Dec 12, 2011 6:12pm Dec 12, 2011 6:12pm
All of this might be true in REGULAR market conditions, but we are currently in a global economic crisis the likes of which have never existed before since Forex trading even became available (in the USA at least). You can't base what is going to happen on your experience with Forex trading in the last ten years. The current conditions supercede that.

Bottomline, unless you actually believe the crisis is over and everyone is now on the road to recovery, there's no reason to believe the long-term trend is not still going to be that of risk AVERSION.

To me, it's a no-brainer that every trade to make from here to the foreseeable eternity is that of selling risk and buying safety.
  • #14,563
  • Dec 12, 2011 6:20pm Dec 12, 2011 6:20pm
SO today looks like a case of either a double bottom forming or...

Inserted Video
"Don't Panic..."
  • #14,564
  • Dec 12, 2011 6:31pm Dec 12, 2011 6:31pm
Good Morning Asia.

On the Fundamental and news side a quick summary: Moody's and Fitch have both joined S&P on the rating downgrade watch of European sovereigns today. Intel lowering expectations hit tech stocks this morning and financial stocks led the way down.

Be careful and many green pips to all.


Daily candle has closed deep into the demand zone and has broken daily trendline support. Short term up channel support is broken and the short term down channel is intact. A break below the October 4th swing low of 1.3145 and the 38.2 fib extention sees very little in the way for a drop to 1.3030 50% fib extension, then phycologically important 1.3000 and below 1.3000 we have a demand level at 1.2860 - 1-2955 and the 61.8 fib extention at 1.2908.

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THV3 system TRIX, Heiken Ashi candles, Ichimoku cloud and SSL fast bar show daily momentum down.

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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #14,565
  • Dec 12, 2011 8:10pm Dec 12, 2011 8:10pm
As a new guy, I feel like I'm spoiled due to the current situation and am wondering how I'm going to adjust to a trading environment where things aren't this easy.

Quoting kibescorp
All of this might be true in REGULAR market conditions, but we are currently in a global economic crisis the likes of which have never existed before since Forex trading even became available (in the USA at least). You can't base what is going to happen on your experience with Forex trading in the last ten years. The current conditions supercede that.

Bottomline, unless you actually believe the crisis is over and everyone is now on the road to recovery, there's no reason to believe the long-term trend is not still going to be that of risk AVERSION....
  • #14,566
  • Dec 12, 2011 8:14pm Dec 12, 2011 8:14pm
Does anyone have any intuition on what tomorrow's FOMC might consist of? One thing I do know is that there are big treasury auctions for both the US and EZ this week. Anything further, I realize is speculation but like to hear others' thoughts if anyone would like
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #14,567
  • Dec 12, 2011 8:23pm Dec 12, 2011 8:23pm
Quoting redteamgo
Does anyone have any intuition on what tomorrow's FOMC might consist of? One thing I do know is that there are big treasury auctions for both the US and EZ this week. Anything further, I realize is speculation but like to hear others' thoughts if anyone would like
probably another QE with tripple twist talk or maybe diferent name this time, who knows whatever they say will not be good for $, the process of killing it still persists...
  • #14,568
  • Dec 12, 2011 8:27pm Dec 12, 2011 8:27pm
Quoting LearninForex
To All,
Firstly thanks for your advices, suggestions.. And I accept that my current strategy wont help me survive in the market where very few survive. I am learning.. I did made a mistake.. may be for the third time.. I agree that no one can give a definitive answer. I am just looking for the most possible thing to happen. Maybe i need to spend more time watching the chart.


As for what I am going to do right now is keep the long open and wait for retrace. Monday could be a reason and its December month. NY is open now but I see on the 4H that...
Put these rules in place and NEVER change them. We then start. Forget the charts alone. Forget price action alone. Forget fundamentals alone.

First NEVER trade EVER without a Trade Plan that you understand.

Your Trade Plan was to go long expecting a retrace.

MISTAKE ONE - Expect Nothing !!!

Solution One - Never lose more than 5% of your Trade Capital on any one Trade Plan. You should ALWAYS put in a STOP LOSS at the 5% level and that's it.

Last night I called things when the EUR/USD was at 1.3300

I was waiting for support to hold at first 1.3282 and then 1.3259

I talked about the Option Expiry Issue at 10:00 AM EST on Monday.

They won out on the PUT side and EUR/USD was trading at 1.3225

When the Dow was down near 200 points Risk Off was in effect.

The US Bonds namely the 2 Year US Bonds went to a Yield of .22% and the 10 Year US Bonds went to 2.02% and the spread was 180 Basis points.

I said this morning to AaronWard to watch Gold which went down big time. Oil sold off as well and BASED on MONEY FLOW only between Asset Classes Money FLOWED into US Dollars and then was parked into US Bonds.

If you still have open longs at this point hold if you can without getting a margin call until Tuesday December 13, 2011 at 2:15 PM when BIG BENNY might save your A S S !!!

USE STOP LOSS and get out after 5% loss of capital.

I am not CUTE although some ladies sometimes think that I am.

I know my business since trading is my life and my business.

Many here can teach me about technicals and charts however I make a MINIMUM of 5% each and every month for a good reason.

I have discipline. I have a good Trade Plan. I understand fundamentals and technicals and my EDGE and maybe yours can be understanding the MONEY FLOW which ALWAYS changes the charts.

I am trying to be humble and not trying to knock or preach however you need to work things out using a demo account in my opinion before you gamble away your money.

Good Fortune and feel free to agree or disagree with me. Have a good evening.

Tomorrow if the Dow goes UP 250 or more Risk is ON and things will reverse. We are in holiday season and we have a MAJOR EVENT RISK on Tuesday when BENNY SPEAKS !!!
  • #14,569
  • Dec 12, 2011 8:40pm Dec 12, 2011 8:40pm
Quoting PipKiller
That's not my house. It's my workshop where I keep my toys...

Attachment






Color is Rustic Red ... kinda like the futures markets today

Attachment

Here is how you use it effectively and please post it once a day.

We can see that the only Asset Classes going up are in GREEN and ALL others in RED.

That simply shows an XRAY of the Money FLOW and therefore you can see the results in the PRICES of ALL Asset Classes with RISK OFF and look what happened.

If the DOW goes down 250 on Tuesday you will see the same chart and if it goes up 250 the chart will invert.

I hope my point is well taken and feedback is more than welcome.

Nice to chat with you.
  • #14,570
  • Dec 12, 2011 8:56pm Dec 12, 2011 8:56pm
Quoting kibescorp
All of this might be true in REGULAR market conditions, but we are currently in a global economic crisis the likes of which have never existed before since Forex trading even became available (in the USA at least). You can't base what is going to happen on your experience with Forex trading in the last ten years. The current conditions supercede that.

Bottomline, unless you actually believe the crisis is over and everyone is now on the road to recovery, there's no reason to believe the long-term trend is not still going to be that of risk AVERSION....
We are in the middle of a financial collapse worse than 2008.

The difference is now the PUBLIC will not accept the actions of 2008.

The FED is losing credibility by the moment and Europe is in a mess and the FED is holding things UP count on it.

During 2012 AGAIN there is the Debt Ceiling Issue and this TIME an Election that might be a REAL GAME CHANGER.

Ron Paul becomes President or maybe Donald Trump.

People are FED up whether the TEA PARTY or the Clowns running for President. I would vote for Ron Paul.

It will be the most INCREDIBLE YEAR of our lives.

Welcome 2012 and call it the North American Spring.
  • #14,571
  • Dec 12, 2011 9:04pm Dec 12, 2011 9:04pm
Quoting knoholygrail
Here is how you use it effectively and please post it once a day.

We can see that the only Asset Classes going up are in GREEN and ALL others in RED.

That simply shows an XRAY of the Money FLOW and therefore you can see the results in the PRICES of ALL Asset Classes with RISK OFF and look what happened.

If the DOW goes down 250 on Tuesday you will see the same chart and if it goes up 250 the chart will invert.

I hope my point is well taken and feedback is more than welcome.

Nice to chat with you.
FINVIZ is one of my favorite sites and I monitor this site all day. It's delayed data but a great visual aid to quickly determine risk on/off and where the money is flowing as you said.

It's an especially effective tool for intraday trading in the London afternoon session into the NY stock market open.

I will make it my job and do my best to get this posted daily before the NY stock markets open as well as my insight into it along with my daily charts. I'm generally up and at the computer by 7AM EST.

Your point of view on money flow, knowledge of fundamentals and straight talk is always well recieved by me. It's always a pleasure to chat with you.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #14,572
  • Dec 12, 2011 9:04pm Dec 12, 2011 9:04pm
Quoting knoholygrail
We are in the middle of a financial collapse worse than 2008.

The difference is now the PUBLIC will not accept the actions of 2008.

The FED is losing credibility by the moment and Europe is in a mess and the FED is holding things UP count on it.

During 2012 AGAIN there is the Debt Ceiling Issue and this TIME an Election that might be a REAL GAME CHANGER.

Ron Paul becomes President or maybe Donald Trump.

People are FED up whether the TEA PARTY or the Clowns running for President. I would vote for Ron Paul.

It will be the most...
People like R. Paul will never see presidency, they represent too much common sense and that is not acceptable on shmall street....
  • #14,573
  • Dec 12, 2011 9:07pm Dec 12, 2011 9:07pm
Quoting dfptommyj
People like R. Paul will never see presidency, they represent too much common sense and that is not acceptable on shmall street....
and war street...
  • #14,574
  • Dec 12, 2011 9:08pm Dec 12, 2011 9:08pm
Quoting PipKiller
Good Morning Asia.

On the Fundamental and news side a quick summary: Moody's and Fitch have both joined S&P on the rating downgrade watch of European sovereigns today. Intel lowering expectations hit tech stocks this morning and financial stocks led the way down.

Be careful and many green pips to all.


Daily candle has closed deep into the demand zone and has broken daily trendline support. Short term up channel support is broken and the short term down channel is intact. A break below the October 4th swing low of 1.3145 and the 38.2 fib...
The FOMC will decide the DAY either way. If Dow goes UP with Risk On we ALL go up regardless of charts.

If Dow goes down 250 or More the Money will be put into US Bonds.

Where else can it go ? Maybe Gold ? BIG RISK EVENT that the CHARTS have NO IDEA on whatever happens.

Please excuse me if I sound like a broken record.

Remember when Clinton once said "It's The Economy Stupid"

I say it is the MONEY FLOW and STUPID is not part of my vocabulary.

I use common sense, trading experience and DISCIPLINE !!!

Keep up the good work. Your posts and charts are very helpful to observe Support and Resistance and FIB levels however it come down for the moment to RISK ON or RISK OFF !!!

Take care friend
  • #14,575
  • Dec 12, 2011 9:18pm Dec 12, 2011 9:18pm
I really appreciate PipKiller being on our thread. I would recommend him to get his 10TH Vouch. I cannot Vouch for him again. He deserves the voucher and before I log off for some sleep...

Thanks PipKiller for your contribution to the GREAT THREAD that our Leader PipTrapper started.

We all deserve a Vouch just for the harmony on this thread.

Even Cloggie could come here now and we would turn him into a Pussy Cat !!!

I like Cloggie and I am joking to make an excellent point.

I KNOW what I do not know and those that KNOW it all actually know nothing.

Buma is my Hero since at 14 he is something else. I hope to meet him one day. He can teach me things and I can teach him things.

We are equals and life is about RESPECT and I respect PipTrapper and PipKiller by their actions.

Good Evening Fellow Posters and Traders...
  • #14,576
  • Dec 12, 2011 10:05pm Dec 12, 2011 10:05pm
Quoting knoholygrail
I really appreciate PipKiller being on our thread. I would recommend him to get his 10TH Vouch. I cannot Vouch for him again. He deserves the voucher and before I log off for some sleep...

Thanks PipKiller for your contribution to the GREAT THREAD that our Leader PipTrapper started.

We all deserve a Vouch just for the harmony on this thread.

Even Cloggie could come here now and we would turn him into a Pussy Cat !!!

I like Cloggie and I am joking to make an excellent point.

I KNOW what I do not know and those that KNOW it all actually...
LOL, It'll come when someone feels I'm ready for it, get some sleep. TY.

What I can do is get daily charts of the Dollar index, S&P 500 and/or DOW set up with supply and demand levels as well as my daily E$ and the FINVIZ futures visual ready for NY open so we all have an Idea where we are in the bigger technical picture.

You economists keep on keeping us up on the fundamentals.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #14,577
  • Dec 12, 2011 10:08pm Dec 12, 2011 10:08pm
Quoting knoholygrail
I really appreciate PipKiller being on our thread. I would recommend him to get his 10TH Vouch. I cannot Vouch for him again. He deserves the voucher and before I log off for some sleep...

Thanks PipKiller for your contribution to the GREAT THREAD that our Leader PipTrapper started.

We all deserve a Vouch just for the harmony on this thread.

Even Cloggie could come here now and we would turn him into a Pussy Cat !!!

I like Cloggie and I am joking to make an excellent point.

I KNOW what I do not know and those that KNOW it all actually...
Lol, Kno, you forgot me. My feelings are hurt. But I would be happy to vouch for PK... except I did that when he first showed up and they wont let me vote a second time.

Seriously, you are very right about the watching both the Fed and Equities. US bonds seem to do the reverse of what Equities do, so watching one chart will tell you what both are doing. When paying attention to bonds, I look at 10 year Italian bonds. This gives me a look into level of panic in Europe combined with their ongoing QE...QE which will probably turn out to be the biggest in the history of the world.

The key thing to understand is the FED will typically undertake two types of actions. First is actions which support equities. The second is actions which devalue the USD. Since both work to drive up the price of the Euro, the Fed is the number one enemy of Euro bears.

When it comes to gold though... I am a bear. Gold does poorly in recession years. Currently gold is very strongly correlated WITH the Euro. Further, it is up by over 500% in 10 years. It is due for a correction and when gold corrects, it typically uses the 38 or the 50 fib lines. As for gold acting as a hedge against inflation... look at the long term charts. The early 80ies were the greatest period of inflation since the civil war for the US. Gold halved in price during the early 80ies.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #14,578
  • Dec 12, 2011 10:52pm Dec 12, 2011 10:52pm
Quoting AaronWard
Lol, Kno, you forgot me. My feelings are hurt. But I would be happy to vouch for PK... except I did that when he first showed up and they wont let me vote a second time.

Seriously, you are very right about the watching both the Fed and Equities. US bonds seem to do the reverse of what Equities do, so watching one chart will tell you what both are doing. When paying attention to bonds, I look at 10 year Italian bonds. This gives me a look into level of panic in Europe combined with their ongoing QE...QE which will probably turn out...

You were number 3 so I can't flip you off and let you know you are #1 That's a priviledge reserved for PT

Just doing a quick rip through a few charts to post tomorrow morning but what I see with supply, demand and trendlines on $ index, S&P 500, DJIA, CAC and DAX30 should be seen. We are at some important levels.

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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #14,579
  • Dec 12, 2011 10:55pm Dec 12, 2011 10:55pm
Quoting PipKiller
You were number 3 so I can't flip you off and let you know you are #1 That's a priviledge reserved for PT
In true PT style...

"I never said I was first to vouch for you... only that when you first showed up I vouched for you"

I believe that PT and Gofer beat me by a few hours, possibly a couple of days.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #14,580
  • Dec 12, 2011 11:14pm Dec 12, 2011 11:14pm
Quoting AaronWard
Lol, Kno, you forgot me. My feelings are hurt. But I would be happy to vouch for PK... except I did that when he first showed up and they wont let me vote a second time.

Seriously, you are very right about the watching both the Fed and Equities. US bonds seem to do the reverse of what Equities do, so watching one chart will tell you what both are doing. When paying attention to bonds, I look at 10 year Italian bonds. This gives me a look into level of panic in Europe combined with their ongoing QE...QE which will probably turn out to be...
Please excuse me for not mentioning your name. The only reason I post short snippets now or none is all because of my respect for you.

However we do not need to agree on everything.

When it comes to Gold there is no other person in the world that I trust as much as I do Jim Sinclair of WWW.JSMINESET.COM

He has NEVER been wrong once since 1999. He was the only person who called Gold to break over $400.00 US

He is a real gentleman. He is an extremely wealthy man. He does all the work and charges nothing. He lost his wife a few years ago through an accident in China. He just carried on.

Go to his website just once a day and you will soon understand Gold is not in a bubble.

There is two kinds of INFLATION.

We have price INFLATION however we do not see it. However on a larger scale we have MONETARY INFLATION which is the printing of money out of thin air.

Gold has gone up every year because of this and as the US Dollar loses value the price of other commodities goes up.

From Jim Sinclair himself...

Snippet:

Dear CIGAs,
The following action is to be taken when the gold price get hit as currency controls are prepared, financial euromortus sets in, euro leaders talks politics, not actions, and when clearing houses go pear shaped.
Close your eyes, cover up with puppies, turn the heat down, light a wood fire and take a nap. Gold is headed for $4500 in the normal manner it always does – 5 steps forward and 4 back. RELAX!
Major buyers are between $1610 and $1650. Sellers are at $1764. It looks like the Gold banks are working for the Exchange Stabilization Fund.

CIGA (Comrades In Golden Arms)

Good Night AaronWard
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