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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #14,541
  • Dec 12, 2011 12:50pm Dec 12, 2011 12:50pm
Anybody seeing this tidy rising wedge on 5M?
  • #14,542
  • Dec 12, 2011 12:51pm Dec 12, 2011 12:51pm
Quoting FXMindset
Here bro - might be wrong ( Never think am true even correct ) - Everything Is Linked one each other - From one wave to another wave - The key MM - I am Swing here and there ( Not Including Short Term Trade yet ) - This is my Mid and LongTerm Current Outlook
are u more inclined to trade breakouts or retests?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #14,543
  • Dec 12, 2011 12:52pm Dec 12, 2011 12:52pm
Quoting FXMindset
Here bro - might be wrong ( Never think am true even correct ) - Everything Is Linked one each other - From one wave to another wave - The key MM - I am Swing here and there ( Not Including Short Term Trade yet ) - This is my Mid and LongTerm Current Outlook
Its extremely bearish....Hope tomorrow bull comes and take me out of my trade (but seems very little chance as S&P , moody going for a some downgrading)
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #14,544
  • Dec 12, 2011 12:59pm Dec 12, 2011 12:59pm
Quoting stevebalmmer
hy,and your outlook is?
Go high in the next time, or sell?
I dont know really bro and not dare to give a call
when I am call extreme bear - or believe its extremely bearish - some people would keep sell from every up - and when I am call Bull some people would keep buying from every drop - that kind of trading and mindset its not healthy at all

So,Just follow where the water flow and there are always 2 scenario and there are

Bear and Bull

my daily resistance for tomorrow is 1.322,lets see how it react - In Mean time we can scalp here and there for make some little living - regarding scalp/Smaller Time Frame - Allowed Our Mr.Goldman come here and explain later

Attached Daily Swing For 2 Scenario - Make It Full
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Daily.png Size: 41 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #14,545
  • Dec 12, 2011 1:00pm Dec 12, 2011 1:00pm
Quoting bumapatria
are u more inclined to trade breakouts or retests?
Both my friends
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #14,546
  • Dec 12, 2011 1:25pm Dec 12, 2011 1:25pm
Goddammit, I should have just stayed in my short position instead of listening to everyone else (including the media) believing an uptrend was coming.

Bullish euro my ass.

The euro isn't going anywhere but down, and now I wish I had just taken my own advice and continued selling.

Oh well, better late than never.
  • #14,547
  • Dec 12, 2011 1:31pm Dec 12, 2011 1:31pm
be careful about getting too frustrated on blindly jumping on a short as u could end up going short just as it decides to turn upwards for a major move up, look at the 4hr 200 sma line or even just the 1 hr one, someone going short now if it does turn up will feel major pain as it could easily run to the 1 hr line at the minimum.

Quoting kibescorp
Goddammit, I should have just stayed in my short position instead of listening to everyone else (including the media) believing an uptrend was coming.

Bullish euro my ass.

The euro isn't going anywhere but down, and now I wish I had just taken my own advice and continued selling.

Oh well, better late than never.
  • #14,548
  • Dec 12, 2011 1:41pm Dec 12, 2011 1:41pm
True from a technical standpoint, but fundamentally, the situation points to this being only the beginning of a strong downtrend (which everyone was waiting before the summit happened ... and then everyone started believing a "rally" was coming).

I expect a good 1000 pip drop here over the course of the remainder of the year. Even if the market is going into a range, I'll just wait for it to come back down and again and pull out with a BE.

Even if I'm wrong I'll have a 2000 pip cushion at the start.

Although based on the current situation, there is nothing pointing to an uptrend starting anymore. The market didn't really react that clearly to last week, but they've obviously started to now.

I don't want to be kicking myself in 24 hours when the price is even lower because once again I didn't have the confidence to get in on the short train.

My analysis is this:

The euro is in a long-term downtrend that it isn't coming out of. I refer to the daily charts often. On said chart, the currency plummeted in 2010, but this year was more of a retracement/consolidation. Starting now, I expect a downtrend as strong if not stronger than what was witnessed in 2010.

In the event that an upwards correction is coming, that's okay. I'll hold my position and bide my time, as I am confident any upwards movement is going to be simply that, a correction. Better that than to potentially miss out on any more of this downward movement.
  • #14,549
  • Dec 12, 2011 1:50pm Dec 12, 2011 1:50pm
Quoting kibescorp
True from a technical standpoint, but fundamentally, the situation points to this being only the beginning of a strong downtrend (which everyone was waiting before the summit happened ... and then everyone started believing a "rally" was coming).

I expect a good 1000 pip drop here over the course of the remainder of the year. Even if the market is going into a range, I'll just wait for it to come back down and again and pull out with a BE.

Even if I'm wrong I'll have a 2000 pip cushion at the start.

Although based on the current situation,...

Fundamentally that is true, the Euro zone is full of negative news so unless the FED decide to intervene in the markets to make the USD the uglier sister, down we go. if i was to bet on something would be the down move eventually to 1.30 and below, we have been moving lower since reaching the peak at 1.49ish
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #14,550
  • Dec 12, 2011 1:56pm Dec 12, 2011 1:56pm
"Ninety-five percent of the trading errors you are likely to make—causing the money to just evaporate before your eyes—will stem from your attitudes about being wrong, losing money, missing out, and leaving money on the table. What I call the four primary trading fears."

Trading In The Zone, Mark Douglas

I think this has been a bit of a theme on this thread today. As Mark Douglas mentions; we must practise the fundamentals, technicals and the mental.

"There's a big difference between predicting that something will happen in the market (and thinking about all the money you could have made) and the reality of actually getting into and out of trades. I call this difference, and others like it, a "psychological gap" that can make trading one of the most
difficult endeavors you could choose to undertake and certainly one of the most mysterious to master."

For me, I feel the regret of missing out the most.
  • #14,551
  • Dec 12, 2011 1:59pm Dec 12, 2011 1:59pm
Ok, I take profit of one trade. Price is consolidating, NY is closed and I dont trust Asian markets. I still think China is part of the Dark force and wants strong EUR. So + 510. Yepee.

Edit: Cya @ London.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #14,552
  • Dec 12, 2011 1:59pm Dec 12, 2011 1:59pm
Ok, fess up, who dozed off yesterday on the sell button? E/U and A/U tanked 200 pips, I leveraged too high in the Asian session and got out with 20 pips each. Who would have thought both dived like a submarine. Well, live and learn.
  • #14,553
  • Dec 12, 2011 2:01pm Dec 12, 2011 2:01pm
FOMC tomorrow could make or break this movement. Negative outlook could fuel this downward movement, while a positive one could nip this right in the bud.

I still remember what a few words from whats-his-face did to the price back in September. It was horrible, because I was in a short USD/CAD position at the time.
  • #14,554
  • Dec 12, 2011 2:04pm Dec 12, 2011 2:04pm
Quoting kibescorp
True from a technical standpoint, but fundamentally, the situation points to this being only the beginning of a strong downtrend (which everyone was waiting before the summit happened ... and then everyone started believing a "rally" was coming).

I expect a good 1000 pip drop here over the course of the remainder of the year. Even if the market is going into a range, I'll just wait for it to come back down and again and pull out with a BE.

Even if I'm wrong I'll have a 2000 pip cushion at the start.

Although based on the current situation,...
I agree with this^^. From a fundamental standpoint the Euro will lose against the Dollar. There might be a quick retracement after dropping past 1.31378, but if such a retracement occurs, I will acquire a short position around 1.32400.

The key levels for any drop to break: 1.28729, 1.25706, 1.18588.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro drops to 1.10 - 1.20 before the end of Feb.

U.S. intervention/incompetence will be important in gauging the severity of Euro deflation, but I don't think the U.S. would really want the Euro to drop down below 1.25. It's bad for exports.
  • #14,555
  • Dec 12, 2011 2:09pm Dec 12, 2011 2:09pm
Don't be too complacent believing the down trend will continue. For all I know, this may be the last push of the down trend and the big sellers have left the market for the year. I'll be even more careful here shorting the E/U pair, I'll re-enter my shorts around 1.33 if it evers gets there.

Quoting smallstep
I agree with this^^. From a fundamental standpoint the Euro will lose against the Dollar. There might be a quick retracement after dropping past 1.31378, but if such a retracement occurs, I will acquire a short position around 1.32400.

The key levels for any drop to break: 1.28729, 1.25706, 1.18588.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro drops to 1.10 - 1.20 before the end of Feb.

U.S. intervention/incompetence will be important in gauging the severity of Euro deflation, but I don't think the U.S. would really want the Euro to drop down below...
  • #14,556
  • Dec 12, 2011 2:20pm Dec 12, 2011 2:20pm
Quoting jeff_b
Don't be too complacent believing the down trend will continue. For all I know, this may be the last push of the down trend and the big sellers have left the market for the year. I'll be even more careful here shorting the E/U pair, I'll re-enter my shorts around 1.33 if it evers gets there.
It's true, complacency is dangerous. But I find it hard to believe that the Euro won't continue to lose value to the dollar ceteris paribus. Of course, nothing is actually held constant, but if the major developments from the Eurozone and the United States continue their trend, the Euro will continue its slide.
  • #14,557
  • Dec 12, 2011 2:23pm Dec 12, 2011 2:23pm
i read the random walk theory applied to the markets with coin toss and Random generated prices you can have realistic looking chart with all the TA to go along with it.

granted my belief is that the market is not random, but is unpredictable so yup careful is the name of the game.

at every point R:R is = 1:1 there is no such thing as 2:1 or any other b/s number out there, it either goes away from you entrance point in a favorable scenario or it goes against you
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #14,558
  • Dec 12, 2011 2:41pm Dec 12, 2011 2:41pm
Quoting the redlion
it either goes away from you entrance point in a favorable scenario or it goes against you
Exactly, price is not random (like random walk) or exact (like efficient market), it is arbitrary (due to mixed emotions and analysis of traders).
  • #14,559
  • Dec 12, 2011 3:13pm Dec 12, 2011 3:13pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Ok, I take profit of one trade. Price is consolidating, NY is closed and I dont trust Asian markets. I still think China is part of the Dark force and wants strong EUR. So + 510. Yepee.

Edit: Cya @ London.

T
I thought you said you were flat..... Liar, Liar pants on fire. What did you do, cash in an old position or "Short like an idiot" again.


Quoting jeff_b
Ok, fess up, who dozed off yesterday on the sell button? E/U and A/U tanked 200 pips, I leveraged too high in the Asian session and got out with 20 pips each. Who would have thought both dived like a submarine. Well, live and learn.
Sorry
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #14,560
  • Dec 12, 2011 3:21pm Dec 12, 2011 3:21pm
Quoting the redlion
i read the random walk theory applied to the markets with coin toss and Random generated prices you can have realistic looking chart with all the TA to go along with it.

granted my belief is that the market is not random, but is unpredictable so yup careful is the name of the game.

at every point R:R is = 1:1 there is no such thing as 2:1 or any other b/s number out there, it either goes away from you entrance point in a favorable scenario or it goes against you
Amen. For that and all the other contributions you have made to the thread, I am throwing a vouch your way!
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