EurAnalysis

This beeing a slow day I thought we could pick up the conversation on EAs. I guess you have tried "everything" and that nothing worked in the long run, but what approach did you think was the most promissing and why did it fail? I have some ideas on why some things doesn't work and why some ideas can work.

supply and demand levels= SD

How would you see supply and demand as different from S/R?

Supply and demand are like zones for me, it can be 10-100 and more pips wide.

clustering of PA in which results in an imbalance then a result is a rally or a drop in price.

tehrefore speculation oges that when we watch ordder flow and other technical confluences in the zones we can sfirst speculate the orders that left that zone might hit again.

my ball park understanding is that S/D is more forward looking that S/R with S/D you look at current bounce and predict it will become S/R in a nutshell

i agree with you both the market is unpredictable but not random that is my view but my style of trading i guess, i like to use calculations and probabilities to assist me in interpreting the data and so forth.

this is part of an argument i had with nubcake regarding predictability
i am just kinda lazy to make my point so i am going back on what i have spilled over and over lol

ok nubcake.

right on all counts.

of course psychology and human behavior is predictable to an extent, the whole field of psychology and psychiatric was build upon this principle.

however, what i have found, is that within an expected outcome as far as behavioral forecast there is factor X, the unpredictable variable.

in effect, you predicted i would reply
you predicted i would defend my view, can you predict the exact argument or words i will use to do so?

i do not specialize in psychiatric medicine so i cannot make a respectable argument as a professional, but as an individual, i can tell you that although humans are creatures of habit, there are always variables to their actions.

so how does this spill over to the market?, buy or sell are the only options, but why so hard to determine which one? why so hard to turn a profit

directional market, and range/volatility, that is all there is to it.

the euro is shitty so it should lose value correct? but when will the sell orders be implemented, when will they fizzle out, when will corrections happen?

you see, in a conglomeration of humans viewing data, traders, corporations, CB, interbank, institutions, politicians...etc
factor X increases as human error increases, as interests clash with each other, now add, bonds, and equitites to the mix.

you do know that the fx market is a total of all sums of the global market and economic activities right? some participants that move the market don even move it for profit, CBs via GOVs, corporations want to hedge their export and import costs, and there are speculators.

so within the predictability there is factor X, or uncertainty principle.

even in medicine, monoamine oxidase inhibitors,tricyclic and tetracyclic drugs, selective seratonin reuptake inhibitors and such are a debated topic, precisely because human psychology is so complex and with so many variables to the variables that we cannot pin point how to blanket treat every patient. and by altering the chemical composition or neurological reactions of some patients lead to exacerbation of symptoms. Then you get in to the teens and children and how the rise in RX drugs for , bipolar, autism and such affects their growth, the cerebral tissue..............that is a whole other topic.

Hmmm.... yearly low on my chart is 1.28718 on 10/01/2011. Got a little way to go to test that line.

so really, kind of like sloppy S/R.

Isn't S/D really a kind of range trading? And if so, how do you deal with a trending market?

Yepp my bad. At least we haven't breached it today.

humans have proven to have cyclical behaviour and cyclical emotions at spree.

u either CT it at a reliable price and order flow, or you get on the retests of previous broken levels.

Sloppy S/R?...nah I wouldn't use that word. They are very different for me, it's not just some small line. Weekly chard S/D can be very large and when you enter for examle weekly 250 pip wide S/D demand zone this just means your in area now where it is more likely that buyer in some point will be more active. This does not mean of cores you should hurry to buy, that's why I take it day by day mostly with my M5 chart, London open, NY open. Bla bla, I hope y get my point.

Yup. We get up every day and go to sleep every night. Basic cyclical behavior. Once every 365 day cycle known as the year (or the sun cycle) we celebrate Christmas, and every quarter companies report on their earnings.

As for the moon cycle... the government reports their latest statistics once every moon. Well to be sure, we call it the month cycle, and is typically couple days longer than the moon cycle, but it is pretty close. And incidentally the word month comes from the word moon.

i think GOLDMAN if i am not mistaken, is like every successful trader i know

PRICE first, helpers (mathematics, S/D, S/R, Fundies etc) only if price confirms it. all these is second.

price movement, Price Action etc first and foremost.

damn i am sleepy lol its 0345 today, nothing really much happening (did i mentioned i am on call tonight , no patients to see, or calls from facilities, hospitals............i will knock on wood)

Ok, let me know if I am wrong...

You wait until price is in the Supply zone before you sell. However once you are in the supply zone you use price action to decide when exactly you will sell.

sounds about right..... kinda like i use standard deviations, not the REASON to sell but to look for 1) price to confirm its bearishness, and 2) to time it if indeed is bearish. otherwise Supply turns demand, or price changes direction

i apologize for my interjections but i am bored and i need to keep awake

I view supply and demand zones as interest for buying and selling. This historical open orders graph shows this quite well I believe.

Darker colours indicate areas of strong interest. They are zones that traders place their S/R and plan to enter the market long or short. Every trader has slightly different levels they place their S/R lines so that's why it creates a zone.

Please debate this view if you disagree.

Exactly