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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #14,261
  • Dec 11, 2011 2:17pm Dec 11, 2011 2:17pm
Quoting PipKiller
Welcome to another week of which way do we go.
.....
I am just reading whole article, but man, how can you say you dont do fundamental analysis. I challenge you to deny this lie sir!

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #14,262
  • Edited 3:02pm Dec 11, 2011 2:28pm | Edited 3:02pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I am just reading whole article, but man, how can you say you dont do fundamental analysis. I challenge you to deny this lie sir!

T
OK....... I deny this lie sir. (that's my best poker face)

I do market analysis and try to read the markets, and what moves them. Never had an economics class in my life other than the school of hard knocks.

I've learned more about fundies in the last few months from you , PT, Knoholygrail and others here than I ever did any where else. Thank you all.

Spam away my friend.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #14,263
  • Dec 11, 2011 2:57pm Dec 11, 2011 2:57pm
My platform only has a sell button too

EDIT: and my platform only has 1 product too, the E/U pair.

Quoting Gofer Pips
WTF! I don't understand???? Other than all you have is a sell button on your platform!
  • #14,264
  • Edited 3:51pm Dec 11, 2011 3:40pm | Edited 3:51pm
Quoting PipKiller
OK....... I deny this lie sir. (that's my best poker face)

I do market analysis and try to read the markets, and what moves them. Never had an economics class in my life other than the school of hard knocks.

I've learned more about fundies in the last few months from you , PT, Knoholygrail and others here than I ever did any where else. Thank you all.

Spam away my friend.
Martin A Armstrong of Armstrong Economics wrote an article called why are there no formally educated forex experts ?

Just Google Martin A Armstrong and you will find one of the most amazing analyst that ever lived. He was the head of his own firm and when he refused to give the USA his trading model he ended up in jail. He was in jail for over 5 years just for contempt of court.

In this article in front of me called "Answering Your Questions" I have no link at the moment he states on page two of his article that the legendary Sidney Weinberg (1891-1969) started as an assistant janitor at $3.00 a week and became the head of Goldman Sachs.

Martin goes on to say that the most important industry in the world is still not taught in school. If you want to contact Martin he can be reached at [email protected]

http://www.inflateordie.com/MAA-ORG_files/image001.png

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/economic_projections.htm



I have learned very much about trading cycles following his free newsletters.

I have not seen anyone mention it today so I point out that on Tuesday, December 13, 2011 at 12:30 PM EST there is a FED rate announcement and a press conference at 2:15 PM EST.

This is a new format now that has been going on for a few months.

Under the circumstances of the markets not yet having a chance to really judge what happened at the Euro Summit and the FED being a market mover please be aware of this event. I have no idea at the moment what the markets will do. Our first clue will be Europe starting at 2:00 AM EST or GMT 0700.

The markets then open at 3:00 AM EST and watch things up until 4:00 AM to get an idea. Then we move on to CNBC coming on at 6:00 AM EST and the experts and knowledgeable people will start influencing the markets.

Will Monday be a quiet day awaiting the FED on Tuesday ?

Could there be a short squeeze on EUR/USD ?

The markets are thin at the moment. Look up what happened last year with EUR/USD between now and the end of the year. I think we had a surprise move up and then a reversal in January 2011. I was shorting it at that time.

Being on the sidelines at least for myself allows me to be objective with no point of view that is rigid.

I am ready for whatever it does whether the Dow goes up 500 or down 500 and so this thread allows us to see many different points of view and we benefit from all this information.

However Risk Management and control of your emotions is KEY.

Do not trade your fears, greed or ego if you have the discipline.

Not making a trade when none really exists is part of a trade plan.

There are dozens of opportunities each day so be patient and be ready and watch what happens and try hard to avoid assumptions that are more your bias than the fundamentals or price action is showing you.

I wish everyone a great and profitable trading week and a Happy and Healthy and Prosperous New Year for 2012.
  • #14,265
  • Dec 11, 2011 4:01pm Dec 11, 2011 4:01pm
On a very very serious note I strongly suggest that we all read the following article by Martin.

http://www.inflateordie.com/files/MF...12-09-2011.pdf

This type of information will surely give you an EDGE over most out there.

I strengthen my knowledge base and all I need to do is take the time to read it and understand it as I do.

If anyone reading this has any questions please post them and I or others here will supply the answer.

Even if you are mainly a technical trader or a price action trader or whatever understanding the mechanics of what really is occuring gives you more knowledge and insight than some of the spinning heads on CNBC.

I am going to order in my supper and then read the entire article and digest it along with my food. I have no distractions as I live alone and have no boss or children to distract me. Once in awhile my adopted grandson Buma goes off the deep end and we need to take time to chat.

The above is of a personal nature and I am teasing when I mentionned Buma. I only wish I was as smart as he is when I was his age.

Good Evening and now on to ordering supper and put away my laundry once it dries at 7:45 PM EST.
  • #14,266
  • Dec 11, 2011 4:06pm Dec 11, 2011 4:06pm
Quoting knoholygrail
Martin A Armstrong of Armstrong Economics wrote an article called why are there no formally educated forex experts ?

Just Google Martin A Armstrong and you will find one of the most amazing analyst that ever lived. He was the head of his own firm and when he refused to give the USA his trading model he ended up in jail. He was in jail for over 5 years just for contempt of court.


I have learned very much about trading cycles following his free newsletters...
knoholygrail, thanks for the info about Martin. If you've learned from him, that's good enough for me. I've signed up and look forward to reading his newsletters....

on the eur/usd, many analysts over the weekend were predicting a bullish (albeit limited) week for the euro this week (CNBC were guiding shorts at 1.36, with a 1.3820 SL). I flat for now but do look forward to tomorrows action :-)

thanks again for the intel on Martin

trade well

LP
patience is a virtue
  • #14,267
  • Dec 11, 2011 4:13pm Dec 11, 2011 4:13pm
Quoting lovepips
knoholygrail, thanks for the info about Martin. If you've learned from him, that's good enough for me. I've signed up and look forward to reading his newsletters....

on the eur/usd, many analysts over the weekend were predicting a bullish (albeit limited) week for the euro this week (CNBC were guiding shorts at 1.36, with a 1.3820 SL). I flat for now but do look forward to tomorrows action :-)

thanks again for the intel on Martin

trade well

LP
Martin A Armstrong just wrote a 19 page report on December 7, 2011 on the MF Global meltdown. He states it is far more serious than the Europe situation. I put the link in my post. We can only be ahead of others by reading and understanding.

Have a good week and nice to see you posting tonight.
  • #14,268
  • Dec 11, 2011 4:20pm Dec 11, 2011 4:20pm
Quoting knoholygrail
Martin A Armstrong just wrote a 19 page report on December 7, 2011 on the MF Global meltdown. He states it is far more serious than the Europe situation. I put the link in my post. We can only be ahead of others by reading and understanding.

Have a good week and nice to see you posting tonight.
yep just checking in before I get some shut eye.......

thanks again :-)

p.s. just got that report - I'll go through it tomorrow
patience is a virtue
  • #14,269
  • Dec 11, 2011 4:43pm Dec 11, 2011 4:43pm
Quoting knoholygrail
Martin goes on to say that the most important industry in the world is still not taught in school. If you want to contact Martin he can be reached at [email protected]

http://www.inflateordie.com/MAA-ORG_files/image001.png

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/economic_projections.htm
Thanks very much for these links grail. I will read as much as I can comprehend tomorrow after some sleep.

Also I was watching the open. All I can say is.. textbook.
Attached Image
  • #14,270
  • Dec 11, 2011 5:19pm Dec 11, 2011 5:19pm
Quoting Tyoon
Thanks very much for these links grail. I will read as much as I can comprehend tomorrow after some sleep.

Also I was watching the open. All I can say is.. textbook.
Some more on Fraud In The Markets - Another Source

http://www.dollarvigilante.com/blog/...l-markets.html

Sweet Dreams
  • #14,271
  • Dec 11, 2011 5:37pm Dec 11, 2011 5:37pm
So much for Buba giving 200 billion Euros to IMF to funnel to Spain and Italy through the back door.

Bundesbank rejects Europe's IMF funding ruse
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #14,272
  • Dec 11, 2011 5:38pm Dec 11, 2011 5:38pm
http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-resear...gmrefcode=gata

My method when it comes to educating myself on the fundamentals is to read both points of view. The mainstreet point of view via sources such as CNBC and others. Then I read many different however similar articles in this case on the MF Global meltdown.

After 12 years of reading certain analysts I can determine for myself which ones are accurate although none of them can predict timing since WE DO NOT HAVE FREE TRADING MARKETS.

I then form a consensus of my own and watch what happens always having an open mind if things change or the Powers that BE intervene once again to change the rules in the middle of the game.

They eventually get caught by the real analysts out there such as Jim Sinclair, James Turk, Jim Willie, Jim Puplova and Martin A Armstrong.

There are at least a dozen others that I follow and each day I get about 300 emails from information sources on both sides of the same issues.

I usually only read about 50 or so a day using speed reading and the ones I want to study and understand I print out and read it in quiet times.

I realize that not everyone has the time, energy or desire to do what I do however by reading the most important ones which I try to post here from time to time you will have most of what you need.

We also are fortunate to have many intelligent posters on this thread who can discuss, learn, agree or disagree in the proper way.

I am finished for now and will go to bed early not expecting much in the Asian session.

I hope this explains part of my knowledge strategy.

You could always go to WWW.JSMINESET.COM at least once a day and get the news of the day summarized without the BS or bias.

It is a free site run by in my opinion the most knowledgeable Gold trader and analyst there is. Many of his associates post articles there including charts. One such person is Dan Norcini.

I go there at the end of each day. The other excellent site is WWW.FINANCIALSENSE.COM where many different writers post free material.
  • #14,273
  • Dec 11, 2011 5:50pm Dec 11, 2011 5:50pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I am just reading whole article, but man, how can you say you dont do fundamental analysis. I challenge you to deny this lie sir!

T
Like everybody here he is learning on the job. As I say, Fundamentals are fun, and to trade without them would deny me a serious source of pleasure.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #14,274
  • Dec 11, 2011 6:10pm Dec 11, 2011 6:10pm
Quoting The Fool
Let us wait and see; markets have had not much time to really react to what happened at the end of last week. ECB has opened up the vault for the ez banks and will continue to buy the deadbeat sov's debt. I am looking for a rally. S&P can burn off the hopium but I kinda doubt they will. Should be an interesting week.
long e/u gap gamble so. Asian stocks well up but little risk correlation in the euro. will wait to see if Asia follows through to Europe, & if euro can catch a boost there. Great Summit to Save the Euro in the rearview now but still expect rumors and tweets to run the show.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,275
  • Dec 11, 2011 6:49pm Dec 11, 2011 6:49pm
Yawn

It's been a hectic weekend for me and I'm totally exhausted.
I opened my platforms and my eyes rebooted.
Now I can't even think straight.

I'm with Fool on this pair. I expect to see 1.3550 at a minimum. 1.36 would make more sense and 1.37 is possible. Ultimate dream shorting zone would be 1.3825 but I'm not holding my breath on that one, even though my favorite color is blue... just not for my face.

Anyway, I'll catch up with you all tomorrow.

Cheers
PT :0
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #14,276
  • Dec 11, 2011 7:02pm Dec 11, 2011 7:02pm
Quoting The Fool
long e/u gap gamble so. Asian stocks well up but little risk correlation in the euro. will wait to see if Asia follows through to Europe, & if euro can catch a boost there. Great Summit to Save the Euro in the rearview now but still expect rumors and tweets to run the show.
Asian stocks are not as happy as you might think. Although they are all boasting 1%+ gains, they are really just pricing in Fridays rally. This is irrelevant to Risk on/off as this has already been priced into most risk on/off assets.

The Chinese equity markets are not happy. We just created another low for the year a few minutes ago. We are now in April of 2009 territory.

Chinese stocks are a bit of an oddball. First of all, the Chinese government does not care about propping up the equity market. The really funny thing is that the government actually owns over 50% of the equity market. Second, the Chinese probably have the best gauge of global demand of anybody as they produce so much stuff. However China also suffers from a bit of a disconnect when it comes to the global financial markets.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #14,277
  • Dec 11, 2011 7:44pm Dec 11, 2011 7:44pm
Quoting AaronWard
Asian stocks are not as happy as you might think. Although they are all boasting 1%+ gains, they are really just pricing in Fridays rally. This is irrelevant to Risk on/off as this has already been priced into most risk on/off assets.
ya i think the real story will begin to unfold with the european open. however i expect volumes are thinning out pretty well and I myself am thinking about packing it in for the year
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,278
  • Dec 11, 2011 7:53pm Dec 11, 2011 7:53pm
Quoting The Fool
ya i think the real story will begin to unfold with the european open. however i expect volumes are thinning out pretty well and I myself am thinking about packing it in for the year
Man, to have to chose between forex and family. Well let me know if you succumb to weakness and leave us here without your wisdom.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #14,279
  • Dec 11, 2011 11:52pm Dec 11, 2011 11:52pm
5 mins to go to open

ADD: Here we go
  • #14,280
  • Dec 11, 2011 11:54pm Dec 11, 2011 11:54pm
EUR/USD 1.3300 because ...

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0111212155319/

Snippet:

Euro opens the week mildly lower as markets' focus are turning to the possibility of S&P downgrades, as early as today. S&P placed 15 eurozone nations on review last week and warned of possible downgrade, noting the significant of the EU summit. Even though a deal to tighten up fiscal rules was reached, but it's uncertain whether S&P is satisfied with the outcome. In addition, the rating agency might still be in deep worry on the underlying economic health of the region. The common currency is seen soft against most other major currencies but after all it's stuck in range without a clear direction. Italy is set to sell EUR 7b of one year bills today and France will sell EUR 6.5b of of short term debts. The results could possibly trigger some volatility in the markets.

Now we await the CAC, DAX and FTSE in the next few minutes.
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