EURUSD | Page 28653 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Similar Threads

MT4: how to change "EURUSD" to "#EURUSD"? 3 replies

Re: EurUsd short term 15 replies

did oanda just drop its spread for eurusd to 1 pip? 11 replies

EA for multiple lot limit order for EURUSD 0 replies

NFP nice bump up on EURUSD 2 replies

Attachments: EURUSD
Exit Attachments

EURUSD

  • #573,041
  • Dec 11, 2011 2:12pm Dec 11, 2011 2:12pm
Btw, just for fun, fundamental issues vs. PR.

Iron Angie:
Statement: ECB will not print!
Reality: ECB didnt sterilize its SMP operations already for three weeks and therefore injected more than 200 Bn of EUR into economy.

GS ambassador within ECB:
Statement: ECB will will not act as lender of last resort!
Reality: ECB is buying toxic bonds of sovereigns all across the market. In fact they are buying trash papers for values and their balance sheet is full of not only sovereigns bonds, but EFSF toxic "AAA" bonds as well. So they will suffer huge losses. Thats exactly what lender of last resort does.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #573,042
  • Dec 11, 2011 2:15pm Dec 11, 2011 2:15pm
Quoting cloggie
They can't, the ECB is no member of the IMF....
I dont mean to give them cash like a regular member. I mean to lend them, like a regular bank. Maybe it was a hoax then?

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #573,043
  • Dec 11, 2011 2:16pm Dec 11, 2011 2:16pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Btw, just for fun, fundamental issues vs. PR.

Iron Angie:
Statement: ECB will not print!
Reality: ECB didnt sterilize its SMP operations already for three weeks and therefore injected more than 200 Bn of EUR into economy.

GS ambassador within ECB:
Statement: ECB will will not act as lender of last resort!
Reality: ECB is buying toxic bonds of sovereigns all across the market. In fact they are buying trash papers for values and their balance sheet is full of not only sovereigns bonds, but EFSF toxic "AAA" bonds as well. So they will suffer huge...

EFSF is no longer AAA, they were downgraded last week. The ECB made up the shortfall on desensitising so all the paper they buy is offset by reducing the money supply. But you are right that if MTM was enforced in the EU, which it isn't then the ECB would have a greater hole in their balance sheet. MTM is one of the shortcomings of the latest stresstest, if it was enforced, all of German/Italian and French banks would be bankrupt.
  • #573,044
  • Dec 11, 2011 2:17pm Dec 11, 2011 2:17pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I dont mean to give them cash like a regular member. I mean to lend them, like a regular bank. Maybe it was a hoax then?

T

They are not allowed to lend to them either, as per treaty. They can only buy on the secondary market, once the paper is in circulation. The UK wanted to allow the ECB to be a lender of last resort, the Germans stopped it.

The Germans would not even allow the EFSF/ESM to run concurrently and is now run consecutively, so that is another 450Bn hole that needs filling. As the plan stands now the ESM takes over from the EFSF early next year, the UK wanted to let the EFSF run and have the ESM run alongside of it, German/France wanted none of it.


The funny bit in all of this is that both Germany and France were very vocal against Cameron 18 months ago for going down the road the UK has been going, and now the Germans and French are falling over each other going along the same path, and this time forcing the periphery to do the same thing by having Brussels control all their budgets. There are going to be alot of EU citizens waking up this week and reading the fine print, thinking who the heck put the Germans in charge?
  • #573,045
  • Dec 11, 2011 2:22pm Dec 11, 2011 2:22pm
Quoting cloggie
EFSF is no longer AAA, they were downgraded last week. ...
Wtf? You mean that SaP statement? I thought that they only said they may change it if European Muppets fail to reach agreement on Friday. I am going to look at it.

Btw, if you are right, thats another piece of puzzle for lowering of collateral requirements so heavily. EFSF bonds had 0% haircut, so all European banks bought them and used as collateral.

Dunno what MTM shortcut means, could you tell me?

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #573,046
  • Dec 11, 2011 2:23pm Dec 11, 2011 2:23pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Wtf? You mean that SaP statement? I thought that they only said they may change it if European Muppets fail to reach agreement on Friday. I am going to look at it.

Btw, if you are right, thats another piece of puzzle for lowering of collateral requirements so heavily. EFSF bonds had 0% haircut, so all European banks bought them and used as collateral.

Dunno what MTM shortcut means, could you tell me?

T

Mark to market, accounting for the true value of the paper, not the denomination.

EFSF went from AAA to AAA ratingwatch negative.
  • #573,047
  • Dec 11, 2011 2:25pm Dec 11, 2011 2:25pm
Hm, seems you are right with that downgrade. It was hell about the time. This fond is full of junk bonds and should be rated adequately.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #573,048
  • Dec 11, 2011 2:26pm Dec 11, 2011 2:26pm
Hello everyone? I look forward to this mkt open. I wish you all greenpips. Over the last one year of FF membership...I have sincerely grown and improved in my FX trading just from reading comments here (from both hard boiled and muppets). Keep the content coming guys..

I wish you all greenpips. Oh and if you are the know it all who just trolls around gloating and cheating about how you do 500pips a day, shooting down earnest contributions of other FF members but yourself you never give tangible contribution here.... may your SLs be smacked till you hear that Kaspersky sound in your head!!
  • #573,049
  • Dec 11, 2011 2:28pm Dec 11, 2011 2:28pm
Quoting cloggie
3395
Quoting cloggie
3367

3379
  • #573,050
  • Dec 11, 2011 2:29pm Dec 11, 2011 2:29pm
Quoting cloggie
They are not allowed to lend to them either, as per treaty. They can only buy on the secondary market, once the paper is in circulation. The UK wanted to allow the ECB to be a lender of last resort, the Germans stopped it.

The Germans would not even allow the EFSF/ESM to run concurrently and is now run consecutively, so that is another 450Bn hole that needs filling. As the plan stands now the ESM takes over from the EFSF early next year, the UK wanted to let the EFSF run and have the ESM run alongside of it, German/France wanted none of it.
All because in April 1919, 12 Deutschmarks were need to buy 1 USD. By 1923, 4.2 TRILLION marks were needed to buy 1 USD and they don't want to repeat that.

The initial treaty stipulated that country's debt could not be above certain levels, yet when the financial crash occured even Germany broke their own rules. Now they want to punish countries for breaking the new rules. It is akin to kicking a man while he's down and out on the floor.

Also it doesn't in anyway solve current problems.

Germany will ultimately decide the fate of the EZ and from where I am sitting with their stubborness, it is not looking very rosy!
  • #573,051
  • Dec 11, 2011 2:31pm Dec 11, 2011 2:31pm
Quoting bbakker
All because in April 1919, 12 Deutschmarks were need to buy 1 USD. By 1923, 4.2 TRILLION marks were needed to buy 1 USD and they don't want to repeat that.

The initial treaty stipulated that country's debt could not be above certain levels, yet when the financial crash occured even Germany broke their own rules. Now they want to punish countries for breaking the new rules. It is akin to kicking a man while he's down and out on the floor.

Also it doesn't in anyway solve current problems.

Germany will ultimately decide the fate of the EZ and...

You got it, the Germans are scared sh!tless about inflation and they will scacrifice the periphery to keep inflation down. Look at each and every speech by Merkel on the subject and what has come out of the EU on Friday, no extra money, no extra powers for the ECB, no concurrent ESM. Just austerity and all countries have to have their budgets and current accounts approved by unelected bureaucrats. WTF are the Greeks/Irish/Spanish and Portuguese thinking? They'd better brush up on their German, they are moving in.
  • #573,052
  • Dec 11, 2011 2:32pm Dec 11, 2011 2:32pm
Quoting cloggie
Mark to market, accounting for the true value of the paper, not the denomination.

EFSF went from AAA to AAA ratingwatch negative.
Ah ok. I know this wasnt in stress tests, but didnt know about that ECB doesnt have to value it this way. I considered it normal. Well, foolish me.

Btw, while we are at this topic, last week I have read my favourite "Things that make you go Hmmm" by Grant Williams, he was speaking about an accounting law in US, which was forcing companies to use MTM valuation on their assets. This accounting law somehow diminished in mid of 2009 and since then FED started to buy MBS (mortgage backed securities) quite heavily.

T
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: saupload_fed_20balance_20sheet_208.19.jpg Size: 125 KB
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #573,053
  • Dec 11, 2011 2:37pm Dec 11, 2011 2:37pm
Quoting cloggie
You got it, the Germans are scared sh!tless about inflation and they will scacrifice the periphery to keep inflation down. Look at each and every speech by Merkel on the subject and what has come out of the EU on Friday, no extra money, no extra powers for the ECB, no concurrent ESM. Just austerity and all countries have to have their budgets and current accounts approved by unelected bureaucrats. WTF are the Greeks/Irish/Spanish and Portuguese thinking? They'd better brush up on their German, they are moving in.
They need to wake up and smell the coffee, but yet the meekly follow whatever the Germans put in front of them. Fair play to the Irish for sticking up two fingers when it came to corporation tax.

Like you say.. popcorn at the ready... 2012 is going to be a very interesting year!
  • #573,054
  • Dec 11, 2011 2:40pm Dec 11, 2011 2:40pm
Quoting cloggie
They are not allowed to lend to them either, as per treaty....
Hehe, you know, I dont watch news in Czech, because there is usually nothing in there, but today I have been watching and they have already noticed . Btw, Czechs really dont like Germans and I think there is no way our president would sign any amendment to treaty.

Anyway, you are great information source and thanks for that. You tend to summarize quite nicely. Much better than google.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #573,055
  • Dec 11, 2011 2:43pm Dec 11, 2011 2:43pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hehe, you know, I dont watch news in Czech, because there is usually nothing in there, but today I have been watching and they have already noticed . Btw, Czechs really dont like Germans and I think there is no way our president would sign any amendment to treaty.

Anyway, you are great information source and thanks for that. You tend to summarize quite nicely. Much better than google.

T

You guys living right up in the middle of all this are a great information source...
Do your time and enjoy the ride...
  • #573,056
  • Dec 11, 2011 2:46pm Dec 11, 2011 2:46pm
Quoting bbakker
They need to wake up and smell the coffee, but yet the meekly follow whatever the Germans put in front of them. Fair play to the Irish for sticking up two fingers when it came to corporation tax.

Like you say.. popcorn at the ready... 2012 is going to be a very interesting year!

Yeah it is a mess, if they don't want to do anything when they are all AAA, it is going to be impossible once they are downgraded. Even the bailouts agreed now in the EFSF are disgusting really, Germany is making a profit on helping out the periphery, that scenario is not going to work once they lose their AAA.

So the solution for the Germans was to penalise the City, there are 3 million working there and it controls 80% of the EU transactions, what did they think Cameron was going to do? The real funny bit is that the largetst employer in the City is DB, don't expect any donations for your reelection there Merkel.

It is not like they can attract the financial industry to Frankfurt, even if the UK leaves the EU, German regulatory regime would not allow 75% of what London does right now, and how do you move 3 million people/

I am not sure if Cameron did right vetoing the treaty changes, but I am glad he stood up to Merkel, FTT aside, does the UK really want to send their budget to Germany for approval and have the Treasury run by the Germans, guess again Merkel.

This is going to be fun, the rest of the EU cannot unilaterally change a treaty now, even with QMV as the UK has vetoed it and proportionality as outlined in the treaty of Rome won't allow them. We all know they will try, and we also know that the UK will take them to court.

Fun to watch what is going to fall out the bottom in the end.

All this scaremongering by Germany is all fun and games, but they themselves are ignoring the other 3 pillars of the EU. Let's see what they have to say in the weeks to come.
  • #573,057
  • Dec 11, 2011 2:50pm Dec 11, 2011 2:50pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hehe, you know, I dont watch news in Czech, because there is usually nothing in there, but today I have been watching and they have already noticed . Btw, Czechs really dont like Germans and I think there is no way our president would sign any amendment to treaty.

Anyway, you are great information source and thanks for that. You tend to summarize quite nicely. Much better than google.

T

The late amendment we saw on Friday evening after Cameron decided to veto already shows that Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Sweden will not sign up to treaty changes without going back to their own parliaments first, so the plan is already unraveling.

We have had all weekend to think about what the Germans are proposing and to read the fineprint, lots of politicians in that list of countries would not want to put the Germans in charge of their own budgets and spending.

What really matters to us as traders though is how the rating agencies are going to react, the politicians did their bit, nothing, now it is up to the markets.

I will only trade this week if the fundies line up with the techs, as I have done in the last few weeks. There is no need to fight the markets, keep an eye on the wires and the charts and once they agree jump in for a nice ride, if they don't, just watch the soap opera here.
  • #573,058
  • Dec 11, 2011 3:04pm Dec 11, 2011 3:04pm
i plan on shorting if we get up to around 3600; i hope it goes higher to about 3800 so i get get a good short down to 3100; anyway, i believe that "hopium" is the drug that will be moving the market this week...so i am flat for now
  • #573,059
  • Dec 11, 2011 3:04pm Dec 11, 2011 3:04pm
Quoting cloggie
Yeah it is a mess, if they don't want to do anything when they are all AAA, ...
I am really glad Cameron did that. Imo this is kinda war. Germany is yet again trying to dominate Europe and it seems to me that although they claim they want to save it, they do whatever is in their power to enhance crisis so they can force nations under stress to sign amendments to treaty which would give Germans more power. Well, that may be just another conspirational theory but I really think that. Ahh, I just hope Czech president wont sign it.

Europe was supposed to be Trade union. Just free flow of capital goods and workforce. And it is becoming more and more what I dont like. Centralised socialistic machinery.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #573,060
  • Dec 11, 2011 3:06pm Dec 11, 2011 3:06pm
Quoting cloggie
The late amendment we saw on Friday evening after Cameron decided to veto already shows that Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Sweden will not sign up to treaty changes without going back to their own parliaments first, so the plan is already unraveling.
Yea, but I think, and will be ashamed if it happens, that our parliament will approve it. Now I trust only to our president that he wont sign.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
572 traders viewing now