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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #14,221
  • Dec 10, 2011 8:46pm Dec 10, 2011 8:46pm
Pipkiller, Aaronward, The FOOL

Here is a company that allows you to trade almost unlimited brokerage accounts all from one spot. Take a look at their video demo:
Inserted Video
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Quoting PipKiller
[font=Times New Roman][size=3]

Trade what is in front of you. If the Euro were to vanish it would happen so fast that most wouldn't be able to trade it. If you were around to watch it go you would probably be locked out of even trading it by your brokers. If you were long in the Euro when it happened, the gap over your stops would likely blow out your account. If you were already in a short, good luck collecting the profits as a collapse of the Euro would also likely spell the collapse of many brokers and banks. There is way too much at...



Quoting AaronWard
Well PK, I see that they teach you a lot more than trading when they were throwing you out of the airplane. Excellent advice.

I have a few more things to add.

1. There will be a few indicators before a real break up. The most important is you will see at least one if not more defiant governments in the face of sanctions (note, this is actually two events). Third you will see some sort of wide spread social unrest protesting the EU. I am not talking about Brits out on a looting spree or Greeks hating their own government....


Quoting The Fool
right, CitiFX and IB - Interactive Brokers

Citi has a $10k min account startup but as they are a bank can offer FDIC insurance on the account.... as a bank, they are regulated by the sec not the cftc.

IB has a Universal Account where you can trade the same equity across all assets - ie, make a fx trade and hedge it with an options or stock trade in the same account. I think its $10k minimum to get there. IB pays interest on the static balance of the accounts, too, and is also sec regulated so fdic covered.

as far as I know those are the only...
  • #14,222
  • Edited 9:22pm Dec 10, 2011 9:10pm | Edited 9:22pm
Quoting Tyoon
Do you use Oanda to help with your order flow analysis? Order Book

Most Oanda short sellers are limited around 1.355. Longs are limited at 1.33.
LOL... I didn't do this before, but I am going to now. This looks extremely useful. It tells you what people are planning to do and allows you to pinpoint exactly where the strong resistances are.

The key is the open orders. Open positions tell you what people have done. Open orders tell you what people are planning to do. It also tells you exactly where the majority of the breakout sellers are positioned. Open positions is somewhat useful in that it tells you of the market imbalance and where market "hope" lies." By hope I mean people that have a losing position and are "hoping" it will become a profitable one. This gives you an insight into market volatility. People holding losing positions will have to exit at a certain point and this will add strength to any sustained movement.

Open positions also shows a guy who is short from 1.265. So he has been holding his position for over a year, through 2000+ pip draw down. Well, with some luck this strategy will allow him to exit some time next year with a 10 pip profit.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #14,223
  • Dec 10, 2011 9:43pm Dec 10, 2011 9:43pm
Quoting AaronWard
LOL... I didn't do this before, but I am going to now. This looks extremely useful. It tells you what people are planning to do and allows you to pinpoint exactly where the strong resistances are.

The key is the open orders. Open positions tell you what people have done. Open orders tell you what people are planning to do. It also tells you exactly where the majority of the breakout sellers are positioned. Open positions is somewhat useful in that it tells you of the market imbalance and where market "hope" lies." By hope I mean people...
As Darkstar pointed out its only useful when there is an imbalance differential of 1% or greater on the open position chart. That or trade the trend on the retail position ratio
  • #14,224
  • Edited 10:03pm Dec 10, 2011 9:50pm | Edited 10:03pm
Quoting dddd
Pipkiller, Aaronward, The FOOL

Here is a company that allows you to trade almost unlimited brokerage accounts all from one spot. Take a look at their video demo:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=220ZR...yer_embedded#!
Thank you.

Looks nice. It's definatly a nice platform for somebody but not quite what I am looking for and the 650 Euro annual subscription fee kills it to do what I want with multiple brokers.

I believe I can do what I want for free with the MT4i personal trade copier EA

I set this EA set up on my IBFX live mini account I use for testing as the sender with set up MB Trading MT4 demo, FXDD MT4 demo and a Forex.com MT4 Demo as the receivers today to see how well it works and will add more demos to see how far I can push my computer as well.

My computer is no slouch with a 2.9 Ghz AMD Phenom II X4 quad core processor, 6 Gb DDR3 1333 ram and a 1Tb SATA hard drive and Windows home premium. Have room to upgrade the RAM to 16GB and can go to an X6 thurban core AMD processor if needed.

All the BS bundled software has been ripped off the hard drive, no extra programs that are not needed are running in the background and the settings have been tweaked for maximum performance This thing boots up in about 30 seconds and shuts down in about 10 seconds
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #14,225
  • Dec 10, 2011 9:58pm Dec 10, 2011 9:58pm
Quoting sidhujag
As Darkstar pointed out its only useful when there is an imbalance differential of 1% or greater on the open position chart. That or trade the trend on the retail position ratio
So if there is a balance differential of 1% on say the Longs which are underwater, what is the prediction? Up or down?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #14,226
  • Dec 10, 2011 10:02pm Dec 10, 2011 10:02pm
Quoting AaronWard
Open positions also shows a guy who is short from 1.265. So he has been holding his position for over a year, through 2000+ pip draw down. Well, with some luck this strategy will allow him to exit some time next year with a 10 pip profit.
He'll probably have to see price get to 1.2140 to do that with 500 pips worth of swap / interest charges against him. Bet he cried when Ben dropped interest rates to almost zero and said he would keep them there for a couple years
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #14,227
  • Dec 10, 2011 10:04pm Dec 10, 2011 10:04pm
Quoting AaronWard
So if there is a balance differential of 1% on say the Longs which are underwater, what is the prediction? Up or down?
I think its new money that pushes price PA will head towards SL so if there are more long SLs it will move down hit them then reverse and if not then may move down until equilibrium at which point if sellers come in with SLs and its path of least resistance it will move up. I think its useful scalping but general trend is important for a macro pov of market movements. If retail sellers came in and price didnt jump its a sign that the market may be on retailers side. If retailers keep pouring im short it may move up quickly enough for longs to come in then the market will go in the directiion its supposed t
  • #14,228
  • Dec 10, 2011 10:16pm Dec 10, 2011 10:16pm
Quoting PipKiller
My computer is no slouch with a 2.9 Ghz AMD Phenom II X4 quad core processor, 6 Gb DDR3 1333 ram and a 1Tb SATA hard drive and Windows home premium. Have room to upgrade the RAM to 16GB and can go to an X6 thurban core AMD processor if needed.
whoa whoa einstein whatta hell was that, machine language? About half the time I trade off a 11" netbook but it has the Intel wireless connection to a 50" flatscreen so I can have 9 good sized windows open 10' away. That way I can be in bed trading like Howard Hughs in his last days but hey I like to be warm & comfortable. I won't lie I have nodded off and executed trades in my sleep & lost some money that way but I believe in being comfortable so its all good.

I also have a dedicated 2-machine workstation w/ 6 larger monitors on racks and that is the best place to trade from but it requires that I maintain an upright position.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,229
  • Dec 10, 2011 10:21pm Dec 10, 2011 10:21pm
Quoting The Fool
whoa whoa einstein whatta hell was that, machine language? About half the time I trade off a 11" netbook but it has the Intel wireless connection to a 50" flatscreen so I can have 9 good sized windows open 10' away. That way I can be in bed trading like Howard Hughs in his last days but hey I like to be warm & comfortable. I won't lie I have nodded off and executed trades in my sleep & lost some money that way but I believe in being comfortable so its all good.

I also have a dedicated 2-machine workstation w/ 6 larger monitors on racks and that...
I have a swivel on my monitor so I can turn it upsidedown. That way I can practice yoga and trade at the same time.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #14,230
  • Dec 10, 2011 10:24pm Dec 10, 2011 10:24pm
Quoting AaronWard
I have a swivel on my monitor so I can turn it upsidedown. That way I can practice yoga and trade at the same time.
I know alot of yogis and they all think I have gone off the rails with this forex shit. They all eat hearty with no complaints when I take their poor asses out to eat tho.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,231
  • Dec 10, 2011 10:30pm Dec 10, 2011 10:30pm
Quoting The Fool
I know alot of yogis and they all think I have gone off the rails with this forex shit. They all eat hearty with no complaints when I take their poor asses out to eat tho.
Nothing like watch a spiritual person who doesn't care about money stress a minor purchase. Don't actually have a swivel BTW.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #14,232
  • Dec 10, 2011 10:39pm Dec 10, 2011 10:39pm
Quoting sidhujag
I think its new money that pushes price PA will head towards SL so if there are more long SLs it will move down hit them then reverse and if not then may move down until equilibrium at which point if sellers come in with SLs and its path of least resistance it will move up. I think its useful scalping but general trend is important for a macro pov of market movements. If retail sellers came in and price didnt jump its a sign that the market may be on retailers side. If retailers keep pouring im short it may move up quickly enough for longs to come...
thanks, that was quite useful. Only thing I can conclude about open positions for the Euro is that the number one strategy is to close your winners and nurse your losers. Gold is not looking that happy... an awful lot of retailers are underwater.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #14,233
  • Dec 10, 2011 10:59pm Dec 10, 2011 10:59pm
Quoting AaronWard
thanks, that was quite useful. Only thing I can conclude about open positions for the Euro is that the number one strategy is to close your winners and nurse your losers. Gold is not looking that happy... an awful lot of retailers are underwater.
hey yea too many retailers longing gold even though physical demand is there its not leveraged so its ok to sustain even 1000 dollars dd. I said at 2k that 1200 to 1300 but more silver 14 to 18 is my buy level before economy collapses otherwise if it makes a new high we are ok gold will come down to its true value slowly. Look at 2008 the big dump and pump. You cant tll me that if euro hits the fan that gold will correlate negatively with equities as it is now
  • #14,234
  • Dec 10, 2011 11:03pm Dec 10, 2011 11:03pm
i think after next week we can safely buy dips be because sp500 will rise. Usdx will too so it will be weird
  • #14,235
  • Edited 11:44pm Dec 10, 2011 11:17pm | Edited 11:44pm
ARE you making fun of nanningbob? very beagle-like of you. you, too, have been corrupted by the darkside.

no more freezing time?
no more recovery trades?
no "hedging" confused with nedging? hahahaha. nubcake will find that funny.

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Quoting AaronWard
LOL... I didn't do this before, but I am going to now. This looks extremely useful. It tells you what people are planning to do and allows you to pinpoint exactly where the strong resistances are.

The key is the open orders. Open positions tell you what people have done. Open orders tell you what people are planning to do. It also tells you exactly where the majority of the breakout sellers are positioned. Open positions is somewhat useful in that it tells you of the market imbalance and where market "hope" lies." By hope I mean people...
  • #14,236
  • Dec 10, 2011 11:37pm Dec 10, 2011 11:37pm
Quoting dddd
nubcake will find that funny.
and you would be completely correct.

aaron is smart enough to be inquisitive so it's only a matter of time before he's the next cloggie.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #14,237
  • Dec 11, 2011 12:04am Dec 11, 2011 12:04am
Quoting sidhujag
hey yea too many retailers longing gold even though physical demand is there its not leveraged so its ok to sustain even 1000 dollars dd. I said at 2k that 1200 to 1300 but more silver 14 to 18 is my buy level before economy collapses otherwise if it makes a new high we are ok gold will come down to its true value slowly. Look at 2008 the big dump and pump. You cant tll me that if euro hits the fan that gold will correlate negatively with equities as it is now
What I can tell you is that currently gold and the Euro share a really strong correlation.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #14,238
  • Dec 11, 2011 12:15am Dec 11, 2011 12:15am
Quoting nubcake
and you would be completely correct.

aaron is smart enough to be inquisitive so it's only a matter of time before he's the next cloggie.
Lol guys, you are making my life difficult. Now that Conceptual has retired, and Nubs is being nice, my life has lost purpose. With nobody to bash me, i just don't know what to do with my days. I even went looking for Cloggie but the best I could get was a few bashes from Cloggie followers. What a waste of time.

BTW not using an SL does in fact give you a very significant edge, but it also comes at a very significant risk. As for Bob and his trading method.... I am pretty sure he would close out a position with 500 pip draw down. So whoever is down there, it is not Bob. What is more, if that fellow keeps his position open odds are better than 50% that he will be able to close it in profit sometime in his lifetime.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #14,239
  • Dec 11, 2011 12:31am Dec 11, 2011 12:31am
Quoting AaronWard
Now that Conceptual has retired
you mean jettrader / lineinthesand ? it was amusing while it lasted.

Quote
Nubs is being nice
fuck you.

Quote
BTW not using an SL does in fact give you a very significant edge
until it doesn't.

Quote
So whoever is down there, it is not Bob. What is more, if that fellow keeps his position open odds are better than 50% that he will be able to close it in profit sometime in his lifetime.
if it's not bob then it's probably just brijon "printing money".
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #14,240
  • Dec 11, 2011 1:10am Dec 11, 2011 1:10am
December V January

Everybody is thinking about December so I decided to go back and look to see if I could see any chart patterns. I couldn't really find anything interesting.

What I did find was that in the last 10+ years, the year high or the year low was achieved in January. Of the 3 times that this did not happen, once it missed by just a few pips, the second time the trend held true for 7 months until a few months before the Lehman crisis and the third time, a year later, it found the year low a month later.

How to trade this pattern... watch the February breakout and hope that it is not an exception.
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Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
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