EurAnalysis

Chart pattern breakout - Candles - Bar - S&D

You guys call next week - this is my mid term outlook

here my 200 pips - start from london open - NY Open

I remember when Brits they closed borders in Gibraltar during a fight with Spain GB's Newspapers launched in bold: "Borders closed: Spain is insulated!"

Eurchf - Look how daily close - close above open might be bullish sign - pinnochio bar

USDJPY Seem bearish
anyway...


have a nice weekend all

Good documentary film by BBC on RBS : Inside The Bank That Ran Out Of Money

Inserted Video

It includes some featureas about trading too, about MM, Greed, Trend, Psichology, Overconfidence, winrate etc..

Thanks for your insights FX!

http://ashraflaidi.com/t/?hc2968
Double chart of EUR shorts and spot market prices. Net shorts is highest since june 2010.
http://ashraflaidi.com/content/image...9.png_640W.gif

Exactly when might this breakup occur? Is there any chance of the eurozone "collapsing" within the next couple of years? Or would it take longer? And could one ride the "euro sell-off" train all the way to the bottom?

I think yes one could ride the euro sell-off train and make some money from it.

Will the euro disappear, I don't think so - there are lots of reason why. To big to fail, to much invested so far by all 17 eurozone countries but most importantly the objective (within europe) is for the eurozone to increase in power and influence. Most countries within the eurozone have benefited from membership - Germany in particular has done extremely well. The smaller countries have managed to contain inflation.

Yes there has been disgraceful bank lending, not to mention very poor governance in some/all of the PIIGS. I believe these issues can be resolved, it won't be quick and there will be pain, however the alternative of not being in the euro seems to be a far worse option for the smaller nations.

just my two cents....

p.s. from a forex perspective I believe there will be significant opportunities to make money as it is going to be one hell of a bumpy ride :-)

trade well

LP

Well, on EUR/JPY, the currency is about 10,000 pips away from "zero worth" (if that's even possible, I'm no expert) against the yen.

Quoting kibescorp

Disliked

Exactly when might this breakup occur? Is there any chance of the eurozone "collapsing" within the next couple of years? Or would it take longer? And could one ride the "euro sell-off" train all the way to the bottom?

Ignored

Trade what is in front of you. If the Euro were to vanish it would happen so fast that most wouldn't be able to trade it. If you were around to watch it go you would probably be locked out of even trading it by your brokers. If you were long in the Euro when it happened, the gap over your stops would likely blow out your account. If you were already in a short, good luck collecting the profits as a collapse of the Euro would also likely spell the collapse of many brokers and banks. There is way too much at stake to let the Euro collapse. If anything, I think you would be more likely to see a country move into or out of the currency every once in a while as it evolves over the coming years. I see the evolution of the Eurozone and the Euro to be a painful and slow process that will grow into something great as long as there isn't something like a war started over it during it's evolution.


Enough of that.

I was tossing around a few ideas with PT today via PM and think something I have been thinking about for a couple weeks should be shared.It's the weekend, so have a good one. Enjoy.

Multiple Broker Business Plan

I have been following the collapse of MF Global and the carnage left behind with traders, farmers and businesses being locked out of their trades and their funds unfold since I first caught wind of the rumors that the company was looking for a potential buyer a day or 2 before they filed bankruptcy and collapsed.

I sat here and watched 3 hrs of congressional hearings with the CEO Jon Corzine and heard him utter words like "I didn't intend" to do this, that and the other thing. He's a former Goldman CEO, a former New Jersey Governor and a former US Senator with an MBA. He's somebody you would think was supposed to know WTF he was doing. What a mess.

I started thinking about what would happen to me and my money if my Forex broker went under. I did a lot of research and dug up as much background as I could before choosing my brokers but as a realist I know it isn't a perfect world.

 

1. Problems identified
   1. Retail Forex trading is in it's infancy and is the "wild west" of trading
   2. There is no central exchange like futures or equities
   3. Forex trading is not regulated as heavily as futures and equities
   4. There is no account insurance like there is in equities accounts
   5. Most Forex accounts are not kept in segregated funds
   6. Segregated funds don't help when they are misused by the broker.
   7. Many traders just use one broker, if they have multiple accounts, it's often with the same broker

2. Basic Idea
   1. To set up separate Forex accounts at multiple Forex brokers to eliminate a major loss in the event of a brokerage insolvency and to mirror the trades from 1 broker to all other Metatrader accounts automatically.
   2. Keep smaller account balances at multiple brokers. Replace these numbers below with you own numbers
      1. Example 1- With $100,000.00 risk capitol, keep $10,000.00 at 10 different brokers.

   3. Trade smaller lot size with multiple broker accounts and lower risk capitol in each.
      1. Example - If using 10 different brokers with smaller deposits, trade 1 mini lot per broker vs trading 1 standard lot with 1 broker.

   4. I know those that are living off of their trading frequently slide the profit out of their accounts. Thereare also many like myself that have other sources of income and are using trading to build wealth.
   5. Instead of letting profits build in an account, slide them off and open other accounts until you have as much "risk" capitol as you want and then slide off profits into insured bank accounts or other low risk insured slow growth assets.

Well PK, I see that they teach you a lot more than trading when they were throwing you out of the airplane. Excellent advice.

I have a few more things to add.

1. There will be a few indicators before a real break up. The most important is you will see at least one if not more defiant governments in the face of sanctions (note, this is actually two events). Third you will see some sort of wide spread social unrest protesting the EU. I am not talking about Brits out on a looting spree or Greeks hating their own government. This protest has to be anti EU and at least a million or more people. Fourth, you will read the breakup in PA. By this I mean a few days before the break up the big boys will have figured out what is up and price will drop by 5000 or more pips in a couple of days. If you see this, take your profits...don't swing trade this move. So watch for these 4 horsemen.
2. 10 accounts seems somewhat difficult to trade. 3 accounts may be easier to trade.
3. Brokers incorporated in a major country (ie not the Bahamas) are much less likely to go bankrupt. Of course there is MF global.
4. Some brokers guarantee your account up to 100,000 USD. Fool gave me the name of two American brokers. Several of the Swiss brokers offer guarantees.
5. Look at diversifying your accounts by country. Although everything may collapse at once, it is more likely that certain countries will have greater exposure.

right, CitiFX and IB - Interactive Brokers

Citi has a $10k min account startup but as they are a bank can offer FDIC insurance on the account.... as a bank, they are regulated by the sec not the cftc.

IB has a Universal Account where you can trade the same equity across all assets - ie, make a fx trade and hedge it with an options or stock trade in the same account. I think its $10k minimum to get there. IB pays interest on the static balance of the accounts, too, and is also sec regulated so fdic covered.

as far as I know those are the only two fdic covered fx accounts available in the US.

I myself like the idea of having multiple accounts - simply to avoid "account event risk". I want to base offshore but I have not made that jump yet - when I do I'd be looking to get into Dukascopy or another Swiss broker and a London broker, too, maybe LCG, .... but those goals keep moving out of reach as I am feeling the squeeze of the Depression here.

Gratz on your prediction for the range. You didn't quite get 200 pips (although you may on Monday) but 150 pips is pretty good. I really don't know how you do it.

Great thing about a range is we both make money instead of my transfering my money to you.

Lets see what Monday brings. This was a big week and now that hope is passe we have reality to think about.

IB sounds interesting. I think I will check it out right now.

Asia needs a chance to party, not that there's all that much to celebrate. Things look pretty ripe for a massive short squeeze but I ain't quite going out on that limb. I have a very small long trade on over the we just to catch a gap tho, just for funsies.

Im with ETX Capital and up to £50,000 is safe (in my dreams i`ll need that kind of cover). Thats a london broker PK, I think they are fantastic as well.

[size=3][font=Times New Roman]Basic Idea

1. To set up separate Forex accounts at multiple Forex brokers to eliminate a major loss in the event of a brokerage insolvency and to mirror the trades from 1 broker to all other Metatrader accounts automatically.
2. Keep smaller account balances at multiple brokers. Replace these numbers below with you own numbers
   1. Example 1- With $100,000.00 risk capitol, keep $10,000.00 at 10 different brokers.

3. Trade smaller lot size with multiple broker accounts and lower risk capitol in each.
   1. Example - If using 10 different brokers with smaller deposits, trade 1 mini lot per broker vs trading 1 standard lot with 1 broker.

4. I know those that are living off of their trading frequently slide the profit out of their accounts. Thereare also many like myself that have other sources of income and are using trading to build wealth.
5. Instead of letting profits build in an account, slide them off and open other accounts until you have as much "risk" capitol as you want and then slide off profits into insured bank accounts or other low risk insured slow growth assets.

An excellent post - and whilst I already use 3 different brokers for my own live accounts, this has reminded me to look for more.

I would also like to add this idea.....if - say, using your 100K example - you are now ready to put 10K with each broker and you are prepared to work with say a 5:1 gearing / leverage per trade and thus trade 1/2 a standard lot or 5 mini's with your 10K account.....then why not take advantage of the high gearing offered by most retail brokers and place say just 2k in each account and keep the remainder locked away safely in your own bank account, far from the clutches of any broker......

Here is my overview. She has to give way at some point, I believe it's very close.