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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #13,981
  • Dec 8, 2011 1:20pm Dec 8, 2011 1:20pm
Quoting PipTrapper
It was very well noticed in this thread... and I believe the Telegraph (of all rags) did a nice piece about it.
However all other media outlets kept hush about it.
good for the telegraph... about time these news outlets did some fuggin homework

there are no less than 10 good ole GS boys in major positions of power in Europe.... u cant tell me with a str8 face that their loyalties dont lie EXACTLY to the company and men that got them to where they are now.

hell look at paulson here in the US
  • #13,982
  • Dec 8, 2011 1:30pm Dec 8, 2011 1:30pm
Quoting Wulfgar
well that is actually true... 16 years I think
Yup. This is a nice one scheme.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...e-6264091.html

I am having a real fun with this conspirational theory. GS loans to Europe are denominated in USD and therefore Draghi wants to bring it down .

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,983
  • Dec 8, 2011 1:31pm Dec 8, 2011 1:31pm
Quoting the redlion
IT IS HOW MUCH MONEY YOU LOSE WHEN YOU ARE WRONG and how much MONEY YOU MAKE WHEN YOU ARE RIGHT
I think the core of the problem is using the words "right" or "wrong". Emotionally speaking, the words "right" or "wrong" are very powerful. When you're wrong, you feel like you really have to be wrong in order to be wrong. It almost feels right to let the loosing trade growing, just to see how wrong you was...

That's why I coined something like "being in sync with the market". It's less emotion involved and it allows me to leave behind a losing trade without too much fuss.
  • #13,984
  • Dec 8, 2011 1:39pm Dec 8, 2011 1:39pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Yup. This is a nice one scheme.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...e-6264091.html

I am having a real fun with this conspirational theory. GS loans to Europe are denominated in USD and therefore Draghi wants to bring it down .

T

That's the article many of us read. Good job digging
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #13,985
  • Dec 8, 2011 1:39pm Dec 8, 2011 1:39pm
Quoting the redlion
for those fundamental analyst in this thread, have you looked into
Foreign Exchange market Micro structure

in a nutshell

it indicates the market's current price reflects the true market value at all times.

however, fundamentals whether knowingly or unknowingly will make it into the equation by market participant order flow or dealer positioning.
inter market maker trading, and so on.

so this accounts for times where every one is saying " why the fuck are the markets going up?"

the market is NEVER wrong EVER the price you see is the current...
Hey Lion,

For awhile my signature was "the market is always wrong". I meant it quite literally. Imagine a kid that said 2+2=5...no 4....no 21. Or you go to the grocery story and the teller said 1.34....1.32....1.35.... In fact the market is not only wrong (every second it gives you a price that is different from the one before) it is indecisive.

When the price goes up... or down... something is being priced in. It is demand and supply at that moment. But I don't think of it as "truth" or "real value" or even"fundamentals". Exactly how fundamentals affect supply and demand is still a bit of a mystery to me. However, fundamentals do drive the long term trends and so, as a trader, they are valuable to understand.

Of course you are right that using a simplistic FA model of what PA "should do" and then getting mad and/or stubborn when it behaves badly is counter productive.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #13,986
  • Dec 8, 2011 1:44pm Dec 8, 2011 1:44pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I dare to say I am pretty good at trolling. Unfortunately for me, there is usually noone to mock here, so I need to visit EURUSD sometimes. But hey thats a great place to have some fun. I would like to lurk cloggie in this thread somehow, but he seems enjoying EURUSD thread a lot.

T
Lol Tom. It is a bad habit and you should take up scalping so you can make money instead of jokes.

I don't think I am a traditional troll, but I find myself going out of my way to find them. They make life so much more interesting.

But I really appreciate what PT has accomplished here and feel very protective of it.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #13,987
  • Dec 8, 2011 1:45pm Dec 8, 2011 1:45pm
Market microstructure and learning to find inefficiencies in pricing is really the crux of what Darkstar and his ilk attempt to do... in effect its what we all try to do to achieve our edge

some guys look to find expose much shorter duration market inefficiencies such as hunting for liquidity pools/ stop losses/ options barriers etc

other guys look to fundamental major macro order flow events to take advantage of mis-pricing( a great example of this was when trichet kept on increasing interest rates back in early 2011 and the Euro was breaking away from every other currency. Then when he changed his tone setting the state for easing in early May the EEuro had a major correction we are still experiencing from up at the 1.49xx level)


anyhow this is really the game and the edge we are all looking for in whatever way we can.
  • #13,988
  • Dec 8, 2011 1:45pm Dec 8, 2011 1:45pm
Quoting michaelnew

That's why I coined something like "being in sync with the market". It's less emotion involved and it allows me to leave behind a losing trade without too much fuss.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #13,989
  • Dec 8, 2011 1:46pm Dec 8, 2011 1:46pm
Quoting michaelnew
I think the core of the problem is using the words "right" or "wrong". Emotionally speaking, the words "right" or "wrong" are very powerful. When you're wrong, you feel like you really have to be wrong in order to be wrong. It almost feels right to let the loosing trade growing, just to see how wrong you was...

That's why I coined something like "being in sync with the market". It's less emotion involved and it allows me to leave behind a losing trade without too much fuss.

Wow, I really like your take on this. I have to agree 100% that the words "right" and "wrong" are very powerful. I have a huge urge to be right all the time, which in turn leads to a lot of frustration when it turns out that I am in fact wrong. I have to learn to get past that, and come to the realization that being wrong on the markets is not a personal failure, but instead look at it as a lack of knowledge that can eventually be (partially) rectified by learning and growing as a trader.

It's quite overwhelming at times when you look at how many areas you have to actively develop to become "in sync with the market" more times than not. All different kinds of analysis, economics, politics, and then the whole gamut of coming to terms with your personality/strengths/weaknesses. I'm thinking that the journey to becoming a successful trader, is not only rewarding to the pocket book but also in a personal sense, as a way to gain a better understanding of yourself.
  • #13,990
  • Dec 8, 2011 1:50pm Dec 8, 2011 1:50pm
Quoting AaronWard
Lol Tom. It is a bad habit and you should take up scalping so you can make money instead of jokes.
..
Damn you know I would like to. I am just afraid and dont have much capital. It took me quite some time to raise capital for my FX account. Like 5-6 months. The last thing I want to do is to see it burning because Stoch told me.

Well, as I said, maybe after a year or so, I will give scalping another chance.

And anyway, those jokes keep me relaxed. Laughing is healthy and FX trading is seriously sick. You need to have a cure from time to time.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,991
  • Dec 8, 2011 1:51pm Dec 8, 2011 1:51pm
Meanwhile the equity markets act as if the ECB is going to print in a big way, eurobonds are coming, as are treaty changes.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...prohibits.html
  • #13,992
  • Dec 8, 2011 1:55pm Dec 8, 2011 1:55pm
Quoting Pip_Pursuer
I'm thinking that the journey to becoming a successful trader, is not only rewarding to the pocket book but also in a personal sense, as a way to gain a better understanding of yourself.
As a matter of fact, I love forex because of the personal development benefits. I'm kind of a self-help junkie and, until now, this proved to be the ultimate tool for finding my inner holes, working them out and becoming a better individual. Profit and money aside.

I mean, here, when you're wrong, it's right in your face. When you're right and you act as you should be, it's visible instantly: you win. There are a millions other things to be said on this topic, but I'll stop here.

And start staring at my charts for the one thousand two hundreds and fortieth time today

Edit: I'm using the words "right" and "wrong" metaphorically, of course, it's all about being in sync
  • #13,993
  • Dec 8, 2011 1:55pm Dec 8, 2011 1:55pm
I should have read this yesterday

Dec,7

"Options on the table include loosening collateral criteria so that institutions have more access to cheap ECB cash and offering them longer-term loans to grease the flow of credit to the economy, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the discussions are private. Two said an interest rate cut is likely, with only the size of the reduction to be determined for the monthly decision tomorrow.

The ECB is focusing on getting banks lending again rather than increasing its government bond purchases to fight Europe’s debt crisis. The central bank’s insistence that governments take measures to restore investor confidence appears to have paid dividends, with Italian and Spanish yields plunging after Germany and France agreed to move the 17-nation euro area toward a fiscal union, a stance they reiterated today."

---------------------------------

Ass Backwards Plan

Banks cannot or will not lend in Europe for the same reason they don't in the US.

 

  1. Banks are undercapitalized
  2. Few credit worthy businesses want to borrow


Cutting rates will not fix either of those problems. Worse yet, and with thanks to French President Nicolas Sarkozy, taxpayers and businesses will bear 100% of the responsibility to recapitalize banks.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...stimulate.html

  • #13,994
  • Dec 8, 2011 2:02pm Dec 8, 2011 2:02pm
On a side note, I feel seriously bored: no rumor, no market manipulation, no Financial Times news, no Nikkei IMF something. I think I'll fall to my backup entertainment plan, which is watching a movie on HBO. That's way less entertaining than watching the price or this thread, but as I said, given the lack of commitment from the guys working at the rumor mill, I have no other option.

Cya
  • #13,995
  • Dec 8, 2011 2:08pm Dec 8, 2011 2:08pm
Quoting Pip_Pursuer
Wow, I really like your take on this. I have to agree 100% that the words "right" and "wrong" are very powerful. I have a huge urge to be right all the time, which in turn leads to a lot of frustration when it turns out that I am in fact wrong. I have to learn to get past that, and come to the realization that being wrong on the markets is not a personal failure, but instead look at it as a lack of knowledge that can eventually be (partially) rectified by learning and growing as a trader.

It's quite overwhelming at times when you look at how...
I am far more profitable being "right" only 60% of the time than I ever was trying to be right 100% of the time.

You need to be able to cut a loss without emotion like a robot. Then you can pat yourself on the back, smile and sip your cappachino for doing the "right" thing and preserving your risk capitol........ And keep smiling when it turns around and goes the right way..... right after you cut it loose proving you were "right" to begin with.

You can't force the market to bend to your will unless you have some seriously deep pockets so sit back, relax and enjoy the ride.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #13,996
  • Dec 8, 2011 2:10pm Dec 8, 2011 2:10pm
Quoting The Fool
maybe clear the books a bit down sub 1.33 to get ready for the long move when they announce that the euro has been saved once again....
well, does the old yoorow have one more swing in her? a hail mary for the Gipper? I'm in the PT camp & would love to see a pullback to 1.36xx or better. Everybody is waiting to hear what the real deal is for to fight off the bond vigilantes, if the ecb is not gonna play ball then wtf?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,997
  • Dec 8, 2011 2:14pm Dec 8, 2011 2:14pm
I don't have any fundie opinion to contribute. I'm not at that level yet. On a technical note I was curious to know why EURUSD dropped to that arbitrary level with no co-incidence with round numbers, pivots or support. I did however discover that CHF, the closely correlated pair hit strong resistance and MR2 pivot.

Something I am going to keep an eye on in the future.

EUR in orange
CHF in blue
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCHFUSDcorrel.jpg Size: 127 KB
  • #13,998
  • Dec 8, 2011 2:15pm Dec 8, 2011 2:15pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Damn you know I would like to. I am just afraid and dont have much capital. It took me quite some time to raise capital for my FX account. Like 5-6 months. The last thing I want to do is to see it burning because Stoch told me.

Well, as I said, maybe after a year or so, I will give scalping another chance.

And anyway, those jokes keep me relaxed. Laughing is healthy and FX trading is seriously sick. You need to have a cure from time to time.

T
Scalping is not too hard. You are a bear so all you do is watch PA for weakness and then short.

Practice on a demo account until you get the hang of it. Better yet, practice with gold. Gold is much more technical than the EU.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #13,999
  • Dec 8, 2011 2:18pm Dec 8, 2011 2:18pm
Quoting Pip_Pursuer
Wow, I really like your take on this. I have to agree 100% that the words "right" and "wrong" are very powerful.
Ok, just for fun of it. Since I live in my little vacuum of self confidence, I am always right, because I have noone to argue with here.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #14,000
  • Dec 8, 2011 2:19pm Dec 8, 2011 2:19pm
Quoting The Fool
well, does the old yoorow have one more swing in her? a hail mary for the Gipper? I'm in the PT camp & would love to see a pullback to 1.36xx or better. Everybody is waiting to hear what the real deal is for to fight off the bond vigilantes, if the ecb is not gonna play ball then wtf?
when all else fails its common practice to lay it all on the one group that has no say whatsoever..... the taxpayer

if ur european and reading this... get ready to bend over and take it hard and dry....

all the Americans in here already are walking around with red, sore asses from getting railed by our politicians
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