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  • #572,001
  • Dec 8, 2011 12:17pm Dec 8, 2011 12:17pm
After what Draghi said, the media is pretty much now convinced that investor hopes will be dashed tomorrow. Most of the news reports from the last few hours are speaking as if the summit has already failed.

I hope the market shares their sentiment.
  • #572,002
  • Dec 8, 2011 12:19pm Dec 8, 2011 12:19pm
Call me crazy but I actually do expect EUR/USD to go rather north than south in the following weeks...

Bear with me:

1) COT - speculators massively net-short on EUR/USD
2) NC future traders are long on USD
3) tendency to cover positions during late December
4) USD hitting important resistance @9800
5) low FX options market volatility expected
6) 1.32 area looks like a tough support.

...not that EUR would get any stronger, but USD might weaken enough to give us some pullback here.

...what do you guys think?
Quant Hedge Fund CEO
  • #572,003
  • Dec 8, 2011 12:20pm Dec 8, 2011 12:20pm
Quoting AaronWard
It is important to understand at the very minimum you should develop two styles of trading. One is for the range and the other is for the trend. If you like to hit pullbacks, all you have to do is remember to close out early for partial or complete profits.

If you insist on trend trading in a range, then at least wait for what looks like the final pullback, not just the first one that comes your way. Also wait for a sign (preferable more than one) that the correction is complete.
ok aaronward my bad, larger time frames are stronger than smaller. although this past week has been a tough one to call. so if u look in you dailly chart you see a down trend, a correction pull back & then a drop. if this was ur system & this eur would just drop without central banks intervention. u would have a clear reason to have a short on your pull back in smaller time frames like the hour chart. its not easy but with practice it becomes easier
  • #572,004
  • Dec 8, 2011 12:24pm Dec 8, 2011 12:24pm
Quoting FXMastermind
Call me crazy but I actually do expect EUR/USD to go rather north than south in the following weeks...

Bear with me:

1) COT - speculators massively net-short on EUR/USD
2) NC future traders are long on USD
3) tendency to cover positions during late December
4) USD hitting important resistance @9800
5) low FX options market volatility expected

...not that EUR would get any stronger, but USD might weaken enough to give us some pullback here.

...what do you guys think?
Looking at UCAD, on Daily & Weekly, more bullish, dont think E/U is going north. Considering this Bull since the weekend gap, for me is just a retracement for more bearish in the upcomming weeks. Just my 2 cent oppinion.
Trade what you see. Write what you feel
  • #572,005
  • Dec 8, 2011 12:25pm Dec 8, 2011 12:25pm
Quoting FXMastermind
Call me crazy but I actually do expect EUR/USD to go rather north than south in the following weeks...

Bear with me:

1) COT - speculators massively net-short on EUR/USD
2) NC future traders are long on USD
3) tendency to cover positions during late December
4) USD hitting important resistance @9800
5) low FX options market volatility expected

...not that EUR would get any stronger, but USD might weaken enough to give us some pullback here.

...what do you guys think?
yesterday some hedge funds bought options worth 2bln... for a period of 3 month (expiring in 3 months)... aiming 1.25/1.20. good luck with your idea anyway, future will show who is right
  • #572,006
  • Dec 8, 2011 12:26pm Dec 8, 2011 12:26pm
another view
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
  • #572,007
  • Dec 8, 2011 12:27pm Dec 8, 2011 12:27pm
Quoting Dagobert
yesterday some hedge funds boughts options worth 2bln... for a period of 3 month (expiring in 3 months)... aiming 1.25/1.20. good luck with your idea anyway, future will show who is right
1. HFs are not always right could give you a few nice examples.

2. I am talking about a few weeks here, till the end of the year, and not about reversal, but pullback - 3 months is a slightly different TF and story.

...and btw, not a long time ago most banks and big players betted EU will end this year 40-45 area. Now that doesnīt seem likely, does it ?
Quant Hedge Fund CEO
  • #572,008
  • Dec 8, 2011 12:30pm Dec 8, 2011 12:30pm
Quoting ark
no i understand, but i think what u need to understand is there are loads of systems that are universal. but diffrent personalty types are going to have diffrent tweeks. so we could have the same system but use a moving average, because u personally need confirmation. i may not need confirmation. also i belive u need to get to grips with mutiple time frames & it should be part of the system, even pull back. my opinion pull back on 1 time frame is not a system. some my differ. hope that helps u mate
Trading pullback till Asia time tommorow.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trade what you see. Write what you feel
  • #572,009
  • Dec 8, 2011 12:31pm Dec 8, 2011 12:31pm
Quoting samdani786
another view
looks like my analysis chart, itīs just much more clean
Quant Hedge Fund CEO
  • #572,010
  • Dec 8, 2011 12:33pm Dec 8, 2011 12:33pm
Quoting ark
ok aaronward my bad, larger time frames are stronger than smaller. although this past week has been a tough one to call. so if u look in you dailly chart you see a down trend, a correction pull back & then a drop. if this was ur system & this eur would just drop without central banks intervention. u would have a clear reason to have a short on your pull back in smaller time frames like the hour chart. its not easy but with practice it becomes easier
Actually, I see this week's price action just about par for course. We did the exact same thing between 1.36 -1.38, and then 1.34-1.36.
What you have is the bears and the bulls staring at each other. Each will make mad dashes at the other only to be stopped and sent back. It makes for very choppy trading, but as long as you remember the key rule of range trading, which is to take a position against strength, you should have made a lot of money as either a bear or a bull.

I have circled the areas on my 4H chart that show the ranges. Note that all show the insane chop you have been seeing the last couple of weeks. Pretty much the same BS over and over again.
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Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #572,011
  • Dec 8, 2011 12:35pm Dec 8, 2011 12:35pm
Quoting FXMastermind
Call me crazy but I actually do expect EUR/USD to go rather north than south in the following weeks...

Bear with me:

1) COT - speculators massively net-short on EUR/USD
2) NC future traders are long on USD
3) tendency to cover positions during late December
4) USD hitting important resistance @9800
5) low FX options market volatility expected
6) 1.32 area looks like a tough support.

...not that EUR would get any stronger, but USD might weaken enough to give us some pullback here.

...what do you guys think?
Seems to go north at 1.32 where it finds support, if not before.
Tomorrow's summit can change everything though.

I like your mentioning of december position covering. speaking of a shorter term, friday covering can play, too.
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  • #572,012
  • Dec 8, 2011 12:37pm Dec 8, 2011 12:37pm
Quoting AaronWard
but as long as you remember the key rule of range trading, which is to take a position against strength
Agree !
Trade what you see. Write what you feel
  • #572,013
  • Dec 8, 2011 12:43pm Dec 8, 2011 12:43pm
to take a position against strength

what do you mean? what strenght? lol
  • #572,014
  • Dec 8, 2011 12:46pm Dec 8, 2011 12:46pm
Quoting FXMastermind
Call me crazy but I actually do expect EUR/USD to go rather north than south in the following weeks...

Bear with me:

1) COT - speculators massively net-short on EUR/USD
2) NC future traders are long on USD
3) tendency to cover positions during late December
4) USD hitting important resistance @9800
5) low FX options market volatility expected
6) 1.32 area looks like a tough support.

...not that EUR would get any stronger, but USD might weaken enough to give us some pullback here.

...what do you guys think?
However a technical correction to about 1.36 or 1.38 seemed reasonable before Mr. D crushed hope today. He threw some pretty major bombs... suspending sterilizing bond purchases (AKA QE), a rate cut, more rate cuts implied, and reduction of GDP forecast. In the good old days any one of these would have knocked 200 pips off the Euro. Then he made a point of squashing rumors that the ECB would fund the IMF or act as a lender of last resort. To top it off we have equities showing exhaustion.

About all the E/U has going for it is the Fed.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #572,015
  • Dec 8, 2011 12:50pm Dec 8, 2011 12:50pm
Quoting Dagobert
to take a position against strength

what do you mean? what strenght? lol
If it spikes up, wait for weakness and then sell. Reverse for a crash down. FXMastermind... long EU ... is a perfect range position. And as long as it ranges he will make money.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #572,016
  • Dec 8, 2011 12:52pm Dec 8, 2011 12:52pm
I'm waiting for the correction.
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  • #572,017
  • Dec 8, 2011 12:54pm Dec 8, 2011 12:54pm
Quoting AaronWard
If it spikes up, wait for weakness and then sell. Reverse for a crash down. FXMastermind... long EU ... is a perfect range position. And as long as it ranges he will make money.
ah ok thats what you mean... agree. however, i'm still short.... expecting the unexpected (break of downside technical res.)
  • #572,018
  • Dec 8, 2011 12:56pm Dec 8, 2011 12:56pm
Quoting Cerber.bf2
Seems to go north at 1.32 where it finds support, if not before.
Tomorrow's summit can change everything though.

I like your mentioning of december position covering. speaking of a shorter term, friday covering can play, too.

emm ... I like this chart, as there are gaps in the past. But before this, someone tell no gap under there ...... why? who? .... or just tricks ...
  • #572,019
  • Dec 8, 2011 12:59pm Dec 8, 2011 12:59pm
Quoting Dagobert
ah ok thats what you mean... agree. however, i'm still short.... expecting the unexpected (break of downside technical res.)
enough is too much, not expecting more of this today.
160 pips drop today is more that one can want.

buckle up for a new roller-coaster day with rumour over news.

greenies to all!
  • #572,020
  • Dec 8, 2011 12:59pm Dec 8, 2011 12:59pm
Quoting FXMastermind
No credit for me, I know sh_t about this business...

There are different guys to follow here - Cloggie first and foremost, Pkymnic, Geppy, Whale, Wulfgar, Fontu and a few others who drop a post once in a while here, those are the ones worth respect around here...

Oh yes and you can tickle their balls once in a while, they just love it.

Cloggie first and foremost.

Could you pass that message along to my girl please?

kthxbye
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