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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #13,881
  • Dec 8, 2011 7:43am Dec 8, 2011 7:43am
If I heard well.. they are reducing the RRR from 2% to 1%
  • #13,882
  • Dec 8, 2011 7:47am Dec 8, 2011 7:47am
Quoting PipTrapper
Sisse,
I don't have a crystal ball and I am certainly not psychic. However, I cannot help but think that once American and European publicly traded companies start releasing their Q4 2011 earnings early next year
PT
PT, following our conversation ...did you hear the GDP forecast for next year? Positive from 1.4/1.8% to 1.5/2.7%.... Question time so let check for hints

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #13,883
  • Dec 8, 2011 7:58am Dec 8, 2011 7:58am
ECB Cut growth for 2012

 

  1. 2012 growth cut to -0.4% to 1.0%, from +0.4% to 2.2%
  2. Substantial downside risks to growth

I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #13,884
  • Dec 8, 2011 8:04am Dec 8, 2011 8:04am
Draghi dashing hopes that ECB will come to the rescue
Dismissed talk will buy bonds if EU gets fiscal house in order. Says will not lend to IMF.

Source: http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/1...to-the-rescue/

ADD: Therefore the EZ leaders have to fund any needed rescues all by themselves. Not good.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,885
  • Dec 8, 2011 8:06am Dec 8, 2011 8:06am
Quoting sisse
PT, following our conversation ...did you hear the GDP forecast for next year? Positive from 1.4/1.8% to 1.5/2.7%.... Question time so let check for hints

sisse
Hmm I could have sworn I heard Draghi revise them downwards. I'll have to check on that.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,886
  • Dec 8, 2011 8:07am Dec 8, 2011 8:07am
Quoting PipKiller
ECB Cut growth for 2012

 

  1. 2012 growth cut to -0.4% to 1.0%, from +0.4% to 2.2%
  2. Substantial downside risks to growth

Thanks PK... That's what I thought I heard.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,887
  • Dec 8, 2011 8:09am Dec 8, 2011 8:09am
Japan willing to consider increasing EFSF bond purchases

■ Economy minister Furukawa says country is willing if summit shows progress on debt problems
■ Ongoing European problems keeping the yen too strong

Source: http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/1...ond-purchases/
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,888
  • Dec 8, 2011 8:11am Dec 8, 2011 8:11am
Quoting PipTrapper
Hmm I could have sworn I heard Draghi revise them downwards. I'll have to check on that.
I heard the same
  • #13,889
  • Dec 8, 2011 8:19am Dec 8, 2011 8:19am
gave the good news first...
showed traders the real life second...
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  • #13,890
  • Dec 8, 2011 8:22am Dec 8, 2011 8:22am
Quoting PipTrapper
Draghi dashing hopes that ECB will come to the rescue
Dismissed talk will buy bonds if EU gets fiscal house in order. Says will not lend to IMF.

Source: http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/1...to-the-rescue/

ADD: Therefore the EZ leaders have to fund any needed rescues all by themselves. Not good.
The more Draghi spoke, the more he killed the hopium train
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #13,891
  • Dec 8, 2011 8:25am Dec 8, 2011 8:25am
Quoting PipKiller
The more Draghi spoke, the more he killed the hopium train
Draghi could have kept his mouth shut. He was not asked a direct question as to whether or not the ECB would continue the SMP bond buying activity. He obviously wanted to make it clear that bond buying will eventually stop and that the ECB will not lend to IMF. He also made it clear that for technical reasons, all fine tuning operations (bond purchase sterilization) will stop.

So in effect, The EZ leaders are on their own, but because the fine tuning operations are being suspended there will be over €207 Billion more money supply in the markets. This I assume is to provide more liquidity (but has the same effects as QE).

By the looks of it, Draghi wants a weaker Euro... at least for now.

So now all the CBs want to weaken their currencies. Who will win the race to the bottom?

What a messed up market we traders have to deal with. Try and decipher that if you dare.

The latest news is that Japan is considering buying EFSF bonds. Most likely to weaken their own currency.

Expect more whippy action, but this time not just for this week, but rather for the rest of the month.

Trade safe all. I remain flat for now.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,892
  • Dec 8, 2011 8:27am Dec 8, 2011 8:27am
Quoting PipKiller
The more Draghi spoke, the more he killed the hopium train
If you noticed, the yields, from the rate cut, went higher... when Dragui gave the "good news" kept on going higher, and now that he's showing he's big mouth while trying to stay quite (sometimes doing what he wants) yields are going higher.
  • #13,893
  • Dec 8, 2011 8:28am Dec 8, 2011 8:28am
Anybody notice everybody's favorite risk off asset crashing with the Euro?

Edit: I mean gold.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #13,894
  • Dec 8, 2011 8:30am Dec 8, 2011 8:30am
Draghi: ECB will not finance European governments; it’s in the Treaty

■ ECB Treaty embodies the tradition of the Bundesbank
■ There has been no ECB discussion of capping bond spreads. yields
■ Lending to IMF to send money back to euro area, not part of the Treaty, even on a bilateral basis

Draghi has pulled the rug out from beneath the notion that if the EU does its part, the ECB will buy bonds. That notion was very much built into prices. EUR/USD is sliding as the market reprices for a world without ECB bond-buying. This is a game-changer.

Source: http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/1...in-the-treaty/

Draghi says sterilization is a precondition for SMP

■ Occasional failures to sterilize all bond buys is not a problem
■ Should not try to get around the spirit of the Treaty not to finance governments
■ Euro govt bonds not toxic
■ Never pre-commits on rates, when asked whether would cut below 1%

Not to sterilize would be full-on quantitative ease.

Source: http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/1...ition-for-smp/
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,895
  • Dec 8, 2011 8:31am Dec 8, 2011 8:31am
Quoting PipTrapper
Draghi could have kept his mouth shut.
Draghi talks it down giving Merkel room to talk it back up.
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #13,896
  • Dec 8, 2011 8:34am Dec 8, 2011 8:34am
Quoting AaronWard
Anybody notice everybody's favorite risk off asset crashing with the Euro?

Edit: I mean gold.
Yep. The USD and JPY are getting all the safe haveners

When you cannot sell what you want, you sell what you can.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,897
  • Dec 8, 2011 8:34am Dec 8, 2011 8:34am
Quoting Thijs
Draghi talks it down giving Merkel room to talk it back up.
I think we should send this guy a bonus check.

However, it should be noted that about 2 weeks ago he made it clear what his price for cooperation was... demolish the central banks of the individual countries. He wants to make sure that nobody thinks that anything else will work.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #13,898
  • Dec 8, 2011 8:35am Dec 8, 2011 8:35am
Quoting Thijs
Draghi talks it down giving Merkel room to talk it back up.
probably 100% accurate
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,899
  • Dec 8, 2011 8:41am Dec 8, 2011 8:41am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yep. The USD and JPY are getting all the safe haveners

When you cannot sell what you want, you sell what you can.
Since the peak at 1900 gold has been ranging off the back of the USD much like your basic risk on asset. Decent to strong correlation with the Euro. Up a 1000 pips or so this week shorting gold alone. However, as I said, it is ranging and I could have made the same money scalping long.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #13,900
  • Dec 8, 2011 8:41am Dec 8, 2011 8:41am
..Got a new Low ...still saved by 1.33xx ... hmmm...
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