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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #13,821
  • Dec 8, 2011 2:49am Dec 8, 2011 2:49am
Quoting The Fool
watchin euro for signs of weakness ... lol that's rich.

however, re: potential rate cut effect - if ecb cuts the euro rate then that is a pretty good sign that the euro still exists - so, bullish.

Nov. 3 surprise cut gave some volatility but e/u rose slightly in days after...
Ive been seein those for a few years now...

over the last 10 though... up up UP!!

but with all the chatter of a potential endgame in play due to structural imbalances in the EZ...

I dunno...
  • #13,822
  • Dec 8, 2011 2:50am Dec 8, 2011 2:50am
Action Insight Market Overview

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0111208155096/


Watch technicals, price action, fundamentals, spindamentals and movement of funds between asset classes as Risk On and Risk Off goes back and forth.

Have a great day.

Snippet:

While the Asian equities are mildly soft on poor economic data, the forex markets are pretty steady so far. Investors remained cautious ahead of two major events this week, today's ECB meeting and tomorrow's EU summit. It's widely expected that President Draghi will announce a rate cut of at least -25 bps together with a set of stimulus measures. Besides rate cut, the central bank is expected to announce additional 12-month LTROs for 1Q12 and possibly 2Q12. It is also expected that the ECB would widen collateral acceptable for borrowing money from the central bank. The BOE will have meeting today but it's expected that no change will be announced.
  • #13,823
  • Dec 8, 2011 2:57am Dec 8, 2011 2:57am
Quoting Wulfgar
but with all the chatter of a potential endgame in play due to structural imbalances in the EZ...
its a pretty tall order to pull all these little countries together on the FrancoGerman bandwagon for treaty revision etc and it doesn't look like they can pull it off. I hope I'm wrong because if the emu falls apart its likely that we will all feel the pain.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,824
  • Dec 8, 2011 2:57am Dec 8, 2011 2:57am
http://www.forexpros.com/analysis/wr...e-signs-108056
  • #13,825
  • Dec 8, 2011 2:58am Dec 8, 2011 2:58am
Quoting Alorente
Good morning,

There is more of the same today as the market waits for the developments of today and tomorrow. The Daily S&P still is testing the down trendline and the 200 SMA. The Trix is extremely overbought and the RSI is starting to roll over. I am inclined to think that we may get a down move out of this set up, but it is a wait and see situation.
Can somebody explain why the S&P500 is correlated with EURUSD? Is it because US's stocks reflect the value of the USD?

Right now on our 30M price has hit resistance and UTL. All that will go out the window today! Going to be a bit of a party!
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  • #13,826
  • Dec 8, 2011 3:03am Dec 8, 2011 3:03am
Quoting Wulfgar
Ive been seein those for a few years now...

over the last 10 though... up up UP!!

but with all the chatter of a potential endgame in play due to structural imbalances in the EZ...

I dunno...
Hey Wulfgar,

The last ten years of up up and away were a product of lousy US government and hawkish monetary policy by ECB combined with Dovish policy by the Fed. War and terror had some impact, but without the dovish "fix it" response of the Fed, this impact would not have been a reversal of the strong dollar of the Clinton administration.

I don't believe that we are facing a potential endgame, but I watch one two key indicators. The first is the election of an anti EZ government to one or more of the more important nations. Of course it needs to show some staying power. The second is wide spread civil unrest protesting the EU (not just austerity). Until at least one of these indicators is lighting up I wont consider that the EZ is going to break apart.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #13,827
  • Dec 8, 2011 3:04am Dec 8, 2011 3:04am
Quoting Tyoon
Can somebody explain why the S&P500 is correlated with EURUSD? Is it because US's stocks reflect the value of the USD?

Right now on our 30M price has hit resistance and UTL. All that will go out the window today! Going to be a bit of a party!
Go online and read up on RISK ON/RISK OFF. Lots there for you. Feel free to come back with questions.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #13,828
  • Dec 8, 2011 3:07am Dec 8, 2011 3:07am
Quoting The Fool
its a pretty tall order to pull all these little countries together on the FrancoGerman bandwagon for treaty revision etc and it doesn't look like they can pull it off. I hope I'm wrong because if the emu falls apart its likely that we will all feel the pain.
The thing I don't get is how easy it is to get all these little countries to agree to pretty much everything they are told to agree with. How do they do it?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #13,829
  • Dec 8, 2011 3:10am Dec 8, 2011 3:10am
There is no perfect correlation since sometimes other factors are at play.

However in general when the Dow is going down or SP500 more or less the same thing. The ratio there is about 7 to 1 and again this is general.

When money leaves the Dow it means thar risk is off and the money flows into US Bonds to be parked.

The Euro is sold and American Dollars are bought and then the US Bonds are bought. I follow the Yield on the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds.

The movement between asset classes moves the charts as prices change.

If Dow goes down say 250 points or more there could be Margin Calls and then it might affect Gold as sometimes it is sold to pay for margin Calls.

When the US Dollar Index gets strong then it can move Gold down although as I said above there are other cross currents so there is not set rule or 100% correlation.

Now we have a BIG risk factor today and tomorrow with ECB decision and press conference and EU Summit.

I hope this answers your question.
  • #13,830
  • Dec 8, 2011 3:14am Dec 8, 2011 3:14am
Quoting AaronWard
Hey Wulfgar,

The last ten years of up up and away were a product of lousy US government and hawkish monetary policy by ECB combined with Dovish policy by the Fed. War and terror had some impact, but without the dovish "fix it" response of the Fed, this impact would not have been a reversal of the strong dollar of the Clinton administration.

I don't believe that we are facing a potential endgame, but I watch one two key indicators. The first is the election of an anti EZ government to one or more of the more important nations. Of course it...

hey brother..

your points are absolutely valid and I def agree which is why ive been shorting the Euro for awhile now

I have been seeing more and more serious civil unrest in Europe that is a damn sight more than the "occupy wall street" crap we have here in the states. And that is disconcerting

llike i was saying... the problems in the EZ are largely in part to its demographics and its structure... There was many many very smart people who warned agaisnt the inception of the Euro without much much more planning and a slower incursion phase.... and it appears they may end up being right..
  • #13,831
  • Dec 8, 2011 3:16am Dec 8, 2011 3:16am
Quoting knoholygrail
There is no perfect correlation since sometimes other factors are at play.

However in general when the Dow is going down or SP500 more or less the same thing. The ratio there is about 7 to 1 and again this is general.

When money leaves the Dow it means thar risk is off and the money flows into US Bonds to be parked.

The Euro is sold and American Dollars are bought and then the US Bonds are bought. I follow the Yield on the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds.

The movement between asset classes moves the charts as prices change.

If...
K

you are the man and I just shot you a V because i think you are an absolute asset to this board and I hope you stick around for many moons to come
  • #13,832
  • Dec 8, 2011 3:20am Dec 8, 2011 3:20am
Quoting AaronWard
The thing I don't get is how easy it is to get all these little countries to agree to pretty much everything they are told to agree with. How do they do it?
Good Morning Sir

Call it power and call it coercion or call it my way or the highway or call it human nature.

The next two days should be fun. Enjoy and look for good trade opportunities and be ready for the unexpected.

Perception is everything short term until reality returns. It is also called human nature. The masses are always wrong and the reason is why there are more losers than winners if you follow the crowd.

I am getting ready for the day looking to see what is said after the 7:45 AM EST rate announcement and press conference at 8:30 AM EST

Watch Dow and jobless claims and false news coming out from everyone within the EU who has their own agenda.
  • #13,833
  • Dec 8, 2011 3:22am Dec 8, 2011 3:22am
Quoting knoholygrail
There is no perfect correlation since sometimes other factors are at play.

However in general when the Dow is going down or SP500 more or less the same thing. The ratio there is about 7 to 1 and again this is general.

When money leaves the Dow it means thar risk is off and the money flows into US Bonds to be parked.

The Euro is sold and American Dollars are bought and then the US Bonds are bought. I follow the Yield on the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds.

The movement between asset classes moves the charts as prices change....
Waow, that was very clear, thank you.
  • #13,834
  • Dec 8, 2011 3:26am Dec 8, 2011 3:26am
Quoting Wulfgar
K

you are the man and I just shot you a V because i think you are an absolute asset to this board and I hope you stick around for many moons to come
I intend to be here for awhile and I am glad for your support and encouragement. I really enjoy sharing my knowledge and experience. It also helps me focus my thoughts while I wait for trade opportunities.

I have invested 8 years learning and I hope to trade for another 7 years since this has become my love and my life.

Thanks again for the recognition.
  • #13,835
  • Dec 8, 2011 3:37am Dec 8, 2011 3:37am
Quoting knoholygrail
I intend to be here for awhile and I am glad for your support and encouragement. I really enjoy sharing my knowledge and experience. It also helps me focus my thoughts while I wait for trade opportunities.

I have invested 8 years learning and I hope to trade for another 7 years since this has become my love and my life.

Thanks again for the recognition.
There is no other person on this thread more deserving of a voucher than you at this time Kno. If I could vouch you again, I would
Glad to hear you'll be around for a while as there would be a huge void without your posts.
Keep it up
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,836
  • Dec 8, 2011 3:40am Dec 8, 2011 3:40am
Just in case you haven't had a chance to read this yet, here is what Juncker had to say this morning...

■Supports EU treaty change if needed
■Need automatic trigger for euro-area sanctions
■Intervention in national budgets has to be limited
■Favors rule change for euro zone, if possible for all EU
■UK mustn’t get special rules for financial market
■Banking license for ESM interesting idea
■Summit can calm situation if right decisions taken
■Agrees to most of Franco-German proposls in paper

Source: http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/1...-strengthened/
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,837
  • Dec 8, 2011 3:57am Dec 8, 2011 3:57am
Quoting AaronWard
The thing I don't get is how easy it is to get all these little countries to agree to pretty much everything they are told to agree with. How do they do it?
PR my friend. They always threaten us, and massive media campaign prints woever disagrees as a villain who want to see Europe in ashes. They do this PR campaing for two, three months, untill rebel breaks.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,838
  • Dec 8, 2011 4:00am Dec 8, 2011 4:00am
PT, where do you get this information?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1322736720
  • #13,839
  • Dec 8, 2011 4:03am Dec 8, 2011 4:03am
Quoting Tyoon
PT, where do you get this information?
Everything is on page 1

Here is the link to the bond rates http://markets.ft.com/RESEARCH/Marke...t-Bond-Spreads
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,840
  • Dec 8, 2011 4:09am Dec 8, 2011 4:09am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
PR my friend. They always threaten us, and massive media campaign prints woever disagrees as a villain who want to see Europe in ashes. They do this PR campaing for two, three months, untill rebel breaks.

T
Lol. This is why I believe the EZ will be around for awhile. The leaders are very competent.

I found nothing more impressive than the way Greece was handled. The greek government survived problem after problem. Greek politicians required armed guards to get to work. Parliament was surrounded by massive crowds.

Then the Greek Minster had a radical idea. "Let the people be heard". Three days latter he was out of power and the new guy has exactly the same agenda as the old guy.

And then you look at who the crowds blame. They blame their government, not the EZ or the EC or the ECB or the EU.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
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