USD/JPY Discussion

79.50 ? If we are going 79.50 then the longterm trend might be change

Hi FXMindset,
how are things going?
wouldn't mind that, looking for a break in risk-haven correlation

Yeah Oil Master
have one long current @ 76.8 - am must admitted the bull quite slow but looks more healthy than before on this pairs
any trade EU pairs ?

no flat on EU, might get bit of bounce towards 1.33 but looking at USDOLLAR expect an attack on 10.134 level which would give us an EU around 1.3100

USDOLLAR H4:

nice thats should help a bit for UJ long

That could be an opportunity to overweight.

why did BOJ join this

in order to have an overall stability

i rather think they don't know what they are doing?

maybe scratch for a scratch ?

BOJ joined that so in the future when BOJ needs the other banks help them intervention UJ, they can help BOJ.

Looks pretty weak....could fall to 76.65 level again....what caused the
60+ pips sold-off yesterday ?

banks provide liquidity in usd. bringing the uj down 60 pips

79.00 should limit the upside....and 76.60 the downside....a slow uptrend for today and the next week....

the boj may keep intervening on a secret but continuos mode

I remain bullish in respect of this pair. We are above Kumo on the daily Ichimoku Kinko Hyo charts and the TenKan Sen has just crossed over the Kijun Sen. These are two bullish signals.

ChinKou Span is in the middle of Kumo and is about to run into the spike from 30th October 2011. Consequently it is not telling us anything other than expect congestion on the road ahead. If the price action were to start to move to the long side next week, there would potentially be a space below and forward which could indicate that some momentum is building up on a new established long trend.

On Friday there was almost an eclipse of the sun type moment when SenKou Span A, SenKou Span B, TenKan Sen, and KiJun Sen were all within a pip of each other. Also Kijun Sen has been flat for almost the whole of December. I have never seen this before and really do not know if it has any significance and what any significance might be.

Generally looking at this indicator, there are some bullish signs though going long is everything but a done deal.

I have recently listened to one of my great heroes Jim Rogers. He is strongly of the opinion that the Dollar is going to weaken with the yen strengthening. This is no good for any long position.

Most traders seem to be long at around two long to every one short. This is always a bad sign as the market seems to insist on doing the exact opposite to the majority positions held by retail trades. There are reasons for this that include 'most retail traders get it wrong and lose money', 'the market will move in the direction that will cause the maximum paid to the most people (Murphy's Law)', and finally 'for every long positions there is (or should be) a stop which effectively is a sell order and as these sell orders get taken out the market will go short'.

Finally, I think it is MIG Brokers who are anticipating a retest of the lows and below.

My concern does remain that the Swiss can weaken off the Franc with absolute precision, yet the Japanese find it almost impossible to maintain any sustained weakening off. Surely the Japanese cannot be beaten by the Swiss.

I also feel that the failure of the Japanese to weaken off their currency might be symptomatic of something else going on. I accept that the Yen is perceived as a safe haven currency. It is a deflationary economy which means that when you come to sell the Yen that you have previously bough, it will have greater buying power. However the country has a Sovereign debt that dwarfs that of Greece. I accept that most of the Sovereign debt is owned locally by the Japanese and that they are not reliant on the international markets. However there are some muttering by the Credit Referencing Agencies of a potential further downgrade.

My feelings as to what might be going on is a continued repatriation of foreign assets to assist in the rebuild of the country follow the tragic disaster of 17th March 2011 and also support an export economy at the time of a global slow down in trade. I am similarly convinced that the continued strength of the Euro is to be associated with the repatriation of assets by banks to prop up their otherwise faltering balance sheets.

My view it that the repatriation of assets back to Japan is now coming to an end and that is why we are seeing a gradual move to the long side. I accept that there was a bit of a set back on Tuesday and Wednesday, however the pair is up on the week by 24 pips. Not a lot I accept, though every pip in the right direction helps.

The only other thing is that the Ichimoku Kinko Hya weekly chart remains horribly bearish and I cannot find a single aspect that would really give me any hope that the trend of this pair has reversed and that it will start moving to the long side. Even ChinKou Span offers little hope and has clear space for 150 pips above and for the next six weeks ahead. The only thing is that seven weeks ahead it will be in the price action of the last full week of July which gives the tiniest sparkle of hope that it might go long. Certainly I would have concerns taking it short off this chart.

Not moving much...a slow up move to 79.00....

What's the logic behind USDJPY going DOWN when Risk is going up now? This pair WAS moving with risk, albeit a low correlation, now it's moving against? Anyone follow the complex logic here?

A more likely scenario is a test of 79.00 then resume a slow downtrend towards new historical lows....if BOJ dun intervene continuously, the pair can go much south....