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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #13,641
  • Dec 7, 2011 12:19am Dec 7, 2011 12:19am
Quoting Pbh
On December 8 Merkel and Sarkozy will have reached a 6-point agreement requiring ratification of a new treaty.

However, details will not be finalized until March. At that time, if all goes to plan (and it won't), a vote by all 27 EU nations will take place. If that fails (and hopefully the UK torpedoes it), various aspects of the treaty might still be ratified by (and apply only to) the 17-member Eurozone nations.

However, fiscal rules will still require individual referendums in Ireland and in my opinion Germany. Got that?

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...finalized.html...

clear as Mud brother
  • #13,642
  • Dec 7, 2011 12:20am Dec 7, 2011 12:20am
is it time to short ?
  • #13,643
  • Dec 7, 2011 12:28am Dec 7, 2011 12:28am
Quoting jihad441
is it time to short ?
if ure ready to against a japanese bank who just bought euros.

UPDATE: BIG japanese bank buying euros causing sharp rise - DJ newswires
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #13,644
  • Dec 7, 2011 12:31am Dec 7, 2011 12:31am
Quoting PipKiller
That's not my template all you have left of my template is a few colors and the Ichimoku cloud... You do have a few good tools to for exit here. I made up a few charts, hope they help visualize the explanation.

Trading Bollenger bands using the outer bands for entry, use the mean for exit or Target 1 and a close back above /below the mean if letting the 2nd half run.

Attachment

You can use trendlines for exit... Draw them in as price moves and accelerates and close the trade on a close above/below trendlines... Me I like to use...
PK

Really first rate post. I gave up using the BB because although it was easy to read a pierce, the problem always was momentum. If there was a lot of momentum behind the pierce, you would get badly burned trading against it.

With the Heikin Ashi candle that problem is solved. very nice. I will have to take another long and serious look at BB.

BTW, using the Heikin Ashi candles for exits has help me with my premature ejection seat problem.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #13,645
  • Dec 7, 2011 12:39am Dec 7, 2011 12:39am
Quoting bumapatria
if ure ready to against a japanese bank who just bought euros.

UPDATE: BIG japanese bank buying euros causing sharp rise - DJ newswires
that's the reason I'm -20 pips on a EURJPY demo short, no big deal.
  • #13,646
  • Dec 7, 2011 12:43am Dec 7, 2011 12:43am
Quoting AaronWard
So what happens if he doesn't cut rates? Well, that expectation gets taken back out.
That would be really, really , weird, because Dragui clearly stated "We are heading towards a recession at the end of this year". So he would really like to start "preventing" -the massive crash we're missing- by starting to cut rates before the EU summit.
  • #13,647
  • Dec 7, 2011 12:45am Dec 7, 2011 12:45am
Quoting Pbh
That would be really, really , weird, because Dragui clearly stated "We are heading towards a recession at the end of this year". So he would really like to start "preventing" -the massive crash we're missing- by starting to cut rates before the EU summit.
I'm voting for a rate cut. But you never know, and it is good to be prepared.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #13,648
  • Dec 7, 2011 12:46am Dec 7, 2011 12:46am
Good morning Europe.

Ahh, isnt it beutifull, how is it rising so I can have better short opportunity? I hope London boys will bring it up.

I am off to work.

GL all today,

Tom
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,649
  • Dec 7, 2011 12:54am Dec 7, 2011 12:54am
Closed 40 Pips - 0,6% Gain
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #13,650
  • Dec 7, 2011 1:12am Dec 7, 2011 1:12am
I think I'll be away until the US open.. I don't usually follow EDIT: session trends, so I'm buying no breakout.

I could even short this thing... anyways, see you at US open
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  • #13,651
  • Dec 7, 2011 1:59am Dec 7, 2011 1:59am
Good morning all.
Euro still creeping up. Kind of reminds me of that song by James Taylor, "Something in the way she moves"
The compressing triangle is still in play and price has failed to violate either side of it. If it continues to play this game, me may see it reverse to the downside today to test the rising trend line. By my projections that would be around 1.3360 area. However, if price manages to break upwards through the falling trend line. then 1.35xx area (last week's highs will be the next target.
Other than that I really don't expect much until tomorrow's ECB rate statement and press conference. Tomorrow is not just about the rate. We may get a cut and we may not. What I am more interested in is what Draghi announces in the way of measures to help fight the sovereign funding crisis. Will there be a stepped up bond buying program? or additional programs to provide banks with more liquidity? We will have to wait and see. Till then I am neutral and flat short term on this pair. Long term still very bearish... just waiting for the next "shorting like a moron" opportunity. It would be nice to see price reach 1.37 area or maybe even 1.38 area, but that may be wishful thinking on my part.

Anyway, I am heading out for more fresh air and sunshine today. I'll be back before NY opening bell.

Trade safe.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,652
  • Dec 7, 2011 2:04am Dec 7, 2011 2:04am
Good morning,

I´m looking at the S&P Daily today. It is right now at a critical point. Testing the 200SMA and the down trendline that started with the July collapse. If this trendline is broken, we should expect the S&P to move to fresh 2 year highs.

Of course, if that happens, the euro should follow. The next 48 hours will tell the story. The Trix looks extremely overbought, so it should consolidate here before any further up move.
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Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #13,653
  • Dec 7, 2011 2:08am Dec 7, 2011 2:08am
Quoting Pbh
On December 8 Merkel and Sarkozy will have reached a 6-point agreement requiring ratification of a new treaty.
Omfg. Do you see, what I see?

I see PR here. Damn I hate this branch.

You know, on last time summitt, they had 5 point comprehensive solution full of blur.

So now they have to have 6 point comprehensive solution. And it will be blurry as usuall.

OMFG, screw PR.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,654
  • Dec 7, 2011 2:17am Dec 7, 2011 2:17am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Omfg. Do you see, what I see?

I see PR here. Damn I hate this branch.

You know, on last time summitt, they had 5 point comprehensive solution full of blur.

So now they have to have 6 point comprehensive solution. And it will be blurry as usuall.

OMFG, screw PR.

T
Tsk tsk Tom. In the real world PR trumps reality 9 out of 10 times.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #13,655
  • Edited 3:45am Dec 7, 2011 2:24am | Edited 3:45am
Quoting PipTrapper
... We may get a cut and we may not. What I am more interested in is what Draghi announces in the way of measures to help fight the sovereign funding crisis. Will there be a stepped up bond buying program? or additional programs to provide banks with more liquidity? ...
A) I dont think we will get a ratecut. Reason behind it is fact that ratecut didnt help last time. IR area laready incredibly low.
B) Bond buying program. Isnt such a program already running? They are buying bonds like insane.

Conclusion: I expect heavy jawboning. Maybe they will announce that bond program although it is already on. Whatever works.

Anyway, I still think my conspiration theory of Draghi working for GS and wants lower Euro value in longterm is valid . Nothing would be better than crumbling confidence in ECB overfilled with toxic bonds.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,656
  • Dec 7, 2011 2:30am Dec 7, 2011 2:30am
Quoting AaronWard
Tsk tsk Tom. In the real world PR trumps reality 9 out of 10 times.
Yea, it trumps me for sure. On my last job, I have worked as an junior financial manager / accountant. I had responsibility for all companys assets. And I had lesser wage than those bastards from PR. Well they had responsibility to make us look good. That is incredibly hard! Especially if compared to responsibulity for tenths thousands of Eur.

Ah, I am meddling in nonscence again, dont mind me. But fook PR!

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,657
  • Dec 7, 2011 2:39am Dec 7, 2011 2:39am
The Euro may in fact drop some more, but there is danger of a bear trap here:


Commentary (FXPro Chief Economist: Simon Smith)


The continuing danger for euro bears. Although perfectly understandable, the danger for the growing sleuth of euro bears remains that they become slothful about being short. Over recent weeks, there has been growing evidence that investors and traders alike have been seeking to move money out of the single currency. Sovereign wealth funds, which earlier in the year were committed buyers on weakness, are now seen less frequently. Real-money managers have similarly been reducing their exposure to the euro in favour of currencies such as the dollar and the Japanese yen. High-net worth investors in Europe have been actively diverting some of their wealth out of the euro and into the likes of high-end London property, dollar deposits, and gold. Traders are also collectively convinced that the euro is headed much lower. According to the latest figures from the CFTC, euro short positions held by large speculators soared to over 100K in the week ending November 29th, very close to the record short positions taken out 18 months ago during the last eurozone crisis. In May and the first half of June 2010, large speculator shorts in the euro were around or above 100K. Over that time period, the euro fell from around 1.33 to just below 1.20 by early June before surging to above 1.40 by early October. On that occasion the intensity of the short squeeze really hurt many traders who were slow to cover. A similar danger is emerging. A further increase in short positions by traders cannot be ruled out in the near term, at a time when high net-worth and institutional investors still seem minded to reduce their exposure to the single currency. However, the bearish consensus is very extreme. It could very well be that rather too many are convinced that the euro has a lot more downside.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #13,658
  • Dec 7, 2011 2:42am Dec 7, 2011 2:42am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Yea, it trumps me for sure. On my last job, I have worked as an junior financial manager / accountant. I had responsibility for all companys assets. And I had lesser wage than those bastards from PR. Well they had responsibility to make us look good. That is incredibly hard! Especially if compared to responsibulity for tenths thousands of Eur.

Ah, I am meddling in nonscence again, dont mind me. But fook PR!

T
Lol,

In my last real job I was responsible for a number of odds and ends. One of them was Chinese language PR for one of the largest law firms in the world. To put it in politically incorrect terms, I was the white guy that started most PR strategies and usually the last to sign off on press releases.

Since the Chinese practice a somewhat dubious form of free press, our typical press release would get wide spread coverage in about 3 dozen national newspapers. So not counting internet coverage, about 10 million hard copies with bits and pieces of our press release would appear in China.

Talk about pressure.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #13,659
  • Dec 7, 2011 3:00am Dec 7, 2011 3:00am
Quoting AaronWard
Talk about pressure.
Well ok, but you have been in much higher position than me. So you could compare yourself to some asset manager in bank. Who doesnt have tenths of thousands to look after, but millions. I understand you have been under great pressure for sure, but if you messed it up, you would got fired. If asset manager messess it up, his grand grand children will have debt all over their heads.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,660
  • Dec 7, 2011 3:06am Dec 7, 2011 3:06am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Well ok, but you have been in much higher position than me. So you could compare yourself to some asset manager in bank. Who doesnt have tenths of thousands to look after, but millions. I understand you have been under great pressure for sure, but if you messed it up, you would got fired. If asset manager messess it up, his grand grand children will have debt all over their heads.

T
Ah well... just to be agumentitive... a major PR mistake in China could land me in jail or worse. As for the asset manager... if he is managing his own assets then he can declare bankruptcy. And most asset managers hide something for a rainy day. Grand children are always safe.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
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