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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #13,621
  • Dec 6, 2011 1:37pm Dec 6, 2011 1:37pm
Quoting catalicu
You got a target ? Or how low you wanna get ?
I am targetting oblivion.

Well, to be more specific, something like 1,25. Hard to say exact number. Once (If) we go hyperbolic down we can fall and fall and fall... 1,29 is my primary target, but I think we will be going lower and will try to keep some shorts for that case.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,622
  • Dec 6, 2011 1:42pm Dec 6, 2011 1:42pm
What do you guys make of this?

http://www.thetrumpet.com/?q=8895.7661.0.0
  • #13,623
  • Dec 6, 2011 1:44pm Dec 6, 2011 1:44pm
Quoting rekon67
have a 20 pips buy on eu from 83
..buy target extended will close this one @1.3430..next will look for sale but also will keep 1,35-1.36 eur target for this week
  • #13,624
  • Edited 4:44pm Dec 6, 2011 2:51pm | Edited 4:44pm
Quoting rekon67
@ pipkiller

Attached is yours template i am trying 15 mins ..i make my entry on sell when it touches higher bollinger band .. next immediate candle close in red...and the cloud gets thinner towards down.... no problem in entry so far but not sure about optimum exit.

Can u please guide me further? Thanks for your time and help.
That's not my template all you have left of my template is a few colors and the Ichimoku cloud... You do have a few good tools to for exit here. I made up a few charts, hope they help visualize the explanation.

Trading Bollenger bands using the outer bands for entry, use the mean for exit or Target 1 and a close back above /below the mean if letting the 2nd half run.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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You can use trendlines for exit... Draw them in as price moves and accelerates and close the trade on a close above/below trendlines... Me I like to use the bollenger band mean or 20 ema for my trendline, keeps you honesest not letting you redraw it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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You can use the ichimoku cloud the same way. entry when price closes above/below and exit when price comes back and crosses above/below.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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These tools work best for trends and can get you chopped up when the market turns sideways but will help minimize loss if you have the discipline to get out.

Here's a live entry off 5 minute chart I just took in the A$ pair... Poor time to trade but it's always a good time to teach or learn. Trading a micro lot so worst I can do is lose $1.50

Long Entry on close of candle above Ichimoku cloud. Fast TRIX, THV3 Heiken Ashi and SSL fast bar also show long signal. SL set at 15 pips which was 3 x ATR acording to the THV3 info panel.

Manual Exit on close below Ichimoku cloud. Price has turned against me
Loss of 3.3 pips, -$0.33.

Looking at the candles that followed my exit, I'm glad I closed. Might be a good time to go short but I think it's really going to go sideways now in the early Asian session. I've had enough and ain't feeling well the last few days. Time for a vicodin and another nap.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #13,625
  • Dec 6, 2011 4:29pm Dec 6, 2011 4:29pm
grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr, stuck in a trade! Please let the price go up up and away!!! Darn, wish I didn't jump on the long so early yesterday lunch time, shoulda at least waited for the one hour chart. ... I need to stop placing limit/stop entry orders, seems to never work out for me smh. Gotta stick to what I can monitor and just use market entry orders.
  • #13,626
  • Dec 6, 2011 5:00pm Dec 6, 2011 5:00pm
Dont fight the fed
Attached Image
  • #13,627
  • Dec 6, 2011 5:03pm Dec 6, 2011 5:03pm
Quoting nyfx718
grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr, stuck in a trade! Please let the price go up up and away!!! Darn, wish I didn't jump on the long so early yesterday lunch time, shoulda at least waited for the one hour chart. ... I need to stop placing limit/stop entry orders, seems to never work out for me smh. Gotta stick to what I can monitor and just use market entry orders.
I normally use limit orders for fading a trade....using limit orders for break of support I need to glue my face to the screen as PA/Time of day/current news is going to give you the true word on a break of the level....fading is great with large stops...it should rise up in the next hour or so then begin its meanderings....but you can't be that deep into it not to be able to cut your lossess (if a buy order?)...
Never been vouched
  • #13,628
  • Dec 6, 2011 5:22pm Dec 6, 2011 5:22pm
Quoting pipdmypants
What do you guys make of this?

http://www.thetrumpet.com/?q=8895.7661.0.0
The story is a bit embellished.
The loans are not unlimited. They are in fact limited to what the bank has to offer as collateral. Yes the junky Greek bonds are collateral too but hey... at least the CBs get to cover their azzez
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,629
  • Dec 6, 2011 5:31pm Dec 6, 2011 5:31pm
Quoting nyfx718
grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr, stuck in a trade! Please let the price go up up and away!!! Darn, wish I didn't jump on the long so early yesterday lunch time, shoulda at least waited for the one hour chart. ... I need to stop placing limit/stop entry orders, seems to never work out for me smh. Gotta stick to what I can monitor and just use market entry orders.
One rule I stick by which prevents me from entering fakeys is to only enter on pullback after momentum is confirmed, not breakouts. Sure I may miss some good trades but at least I rarely take a bad one.

Let's say we have resistance at 1.3410 and price breaks up to 1.3415, I will not enter a buy unless the breakout candle has closed above resistance and the next candle has pulled back down to 1.3410 to test it as support and failed to penetrate and then start heading up on the next candle. I also back it up with technical probabilities (Is this a technically sound trade?) and in my case I also make sure it is with (not against) the trend and general market sentiment based on the underlying fundamentals.

ADD: The above rule works on any time frame. Obviously you will have to wait much longer on higher time frames. So, maybe practice it on the 5 minute or 15 minute charts in a demo account. It makes a huge difference.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,630
  • Dec 6, 2011 5:32pm Dec 6, 2011 5:32pm
Quoting ingmarforex
Dont fight the fed
is that.... bernanke?

  • #13,631
  • Dec 6, 2011 5:36pm Dec 6, 2011 5:36pm
Looking to buy some hopium around the 1.3367 wanna see test there then target 1.3450s area where i might short if it shows me a sign there again for some retrace or hold will see the volume. If huge supply comes in would be nice
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  • #13,632
  • Dec 6, 2011 5:37pm Dec 6, 2011 5:37pm
Quoting Pbh
is that.... bernanke?

He might be comming in january the holly man
  • #13,633
  • Dec 6, 2011 5:38pm Dec 6, 2011 5:38pm
another thing close above the 1.3450s area not good for the perma bears
  • #13,634
  • Dec 6, 2011 9:53pm Dec 6, 2011 9:53pm
Quoting PipKiller
That's not my template all you have left of my template is a few colors and the Ichimoku cloud... You do have a few good tools to for exit here. I made up a few charts, hope they help visualize the explanation.
I am bookmarking this one..may be someday when I will be eligible for vouching will vouch for this.

This is an excellent guidance, traders who are only trying on technical indicators and set up can refer to this guidance.

Just one more question I have, many times I heard this "Closing the first half and letting the 2nd half run.." what does this means exactly? Are we opening two trades at the same time..closing one when price got support but since the trade is with the trend we close one and let the other one run with SL @ BE?

Many thanks.
  • #13,635
  • Dec 6, 2011 11:07pm Dec 6, 2011 11:07pm
AU GDP in line with expectations, but last month's number was revised to 1.4% from 1.2%, good
  • #13,636
  • Dec 6, 2011 11:34pm Dec 6, 2011 11:34pm
Get ready for record low interest rates in Europe as ECB ready to push boundaries of crisis role

------------
New ECB President Mario Draghi reinforced expectations for a rate cut last week when he said the bank had a responsibility to ensure inflation did not undershoot its target of just below 2 percent, not just to stop it exceeding it.
------------
Under ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB actions were best described as "One Size Fits Germany and France". Under Draghi, ECB policy has morphed into "One Size Fits Italy".
------------
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...daries-on.html
  • #13,637
  • Dec 6, 2011 11:57pm Dec 6, 2011 11:57pm
On December 8 Merkel and Sarkozy will have reached a 6-point agreement requiring ratification of a new treaty.

However, details will not be finalized until March. At that time, if all goes to plan (and it won't), a vote by all 27 EU nations will take place. If that fails (and hopefully the UK torpedoes it), various aspects of the treaty might still be ratified by (and apply only to) the 17-member Eurozone nations.

However, fiscal rules will still require individual referendums in Ireland and in my opinion Germany. Got that?

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...finalized.html
  • #13,638
  • Dec 7, 2011 12:03am Dec 7, 2011 12:03am
Quoting Pbh
Get ready for record low interest rates in Europe as ECB ready to push boundaries of crisis role
I wonder... is this going to be bearish?
Last cut, I remember institutional traders were buying and selling at the same time... so funny, my 15min bar looked like a snake while developing.
  • #13,639
  • Dec 7, 2011 12:14am Dec 7, 2011 12:14am
Quoting Pbh
I wonder... is this going to be bearish?
Last cut, I remember institutional traders were buying and selling at the same time... so funny, my 15min bar looked like a snake while developing.
What I do expect is a bullish Dragui press conference
  • #13,640
  • Dec 7, 2011 12:18am Dec 7, 2011 12:18am
Quoting Pbh
Get ready for record low interest rates in Europe as ECB ready to push boundaries of crisis role

------------
New ECB President Mario Draghi reinforced expectations for a rate cut last week when he said the bank had a responsibility to ensure inflation did not undershoot its target of just below 2 percent, not just to stop it exceeding it.
------------
Under ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB actions were best described as "One Size Fits...
Remember too that this rate cut is already half baked in, particularly with 60% of experts expecting it. This is a big part of the reason the Euro is having trouble gaining any altitude.

So what happens if he doesn't cut rates? Well, that expectation gets taken back out.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
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