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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #13,421
  • Dec 5, 2011 5:18am Dec 5, 2011 5:18am
Quoting AaronWard
Lol, you are a bear wearing a bullish outfit.

Like the wolf in little Red Riding hood you hope the disguise will get the cows to come close enough to become your dinner.
Rofl. Man I cant laugh that hard, boss will hear it.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,422
  • Dec 5, 2011 5:19am Dec 5, 2011 5:19am
Quoting AaronWard
I was thinking of how the different threads are like different TV programs. This is a bit like the Discovery Channel + the Daily Show. The EUR/USD is more like Jerry Springer than anything else.
you hit the nail on the head AW, some of the stuff I've seen posted in the eur/usd thread would be better off being posted to Santa Claus... it's complete make believe

trade well

LP
patience is a virtue
  • #13,423
  • Dec 5, 2011 5:21am Dec 5, 2011 5:21am
i see this senario coming is this right ? volume i down i think there is no intrest in selling ?
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  • #13,424
  • Edited 5:41am Dec 5, 2011 5:29am | Edited 5:41am
Quoting jihad441
i see this senario coming is this right ? volume i down i think there is no intrest in selling ?
Anything is possible but I do not see it as likely today.

Look at my M15 chart.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,425
  • Dec 5, 2011 5:36am Dec 5, 2011 5:36am
Quoting AaronWard
I was thinking of how the different threads are like different TV programs. This is a bit like the Discovery Channel + the Daily Show. The EUR/USD is more like Jerry Springer than anything else.
And Cloggie is Steve the bouncer.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #13,426
  • Dec 5, 2011 5:47am Dec 5, 2011 5:47am
Quoting PipKiller
And Cloggie is Steve the bouncer.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,427
  • Edited 5:49am Dec 5, 2011 5:48am | Edited 5:49am
Quoting AaronWard
I was thinking of how the different threads are like different TV programs. This is a bit like the Discovery Channel + the Daily Show. The EUR/USD is more like Jerry Springer than anything else.
I just love EUR/USD. It is a great thread to relax. I have made lots of friends there . They are already forming Muppet league "AntiTom".

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,428
  • Dec 5, 2011 5:55am Dec 5, 2011 5:55am
Quoting PipTrapper
So in summation, here is the technical probability.
1. From here, price moves back up to between 1.3605 and 1.3825
2. Price then moves down towards and past November's low of 1.3208 and eventually on to 1.2884 before the next upward correction. The only question now is timing, but one thing is for sure... this week will be whippy.

Trade safe everyone.



Here are your daily supply and demand levels to watch. Note that I had to go to the 240 minute to identify the demand level below because it looks like a spike low on the daily.

Price is struggling to get back through the 1.3450 - 1.3600 supply area, if it makes it through here, the 50% fib at 1.3730 and supply level above from 1.3770 - 1.3850 are in sight

Down channel is broken and price is currently ranging in a chanel up.

Double offset smoothed 5 MAs have crossed and are bullish

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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #13,429
  • Dec 5, 2011 5:56am Dec 5, 2011 5:56am
According to Dukascopy...

"EUR/USD is expected to extend its current rally up to a resistance located at 1.3608/15, in extreme case the price might rise up to an area of 1.3835/60. Major support is situated at 1.3210, which guards 1.3145."
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,430
  • Dec 5, 2011 5:58am Dec 5, 2011 5:58am
as professional as dukascopy can be

this is what would happen if i followed their suggestion

Inserted Video
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #13,431
  • Dec 5, 2011 5:59am Dec 5, 2011 5:59am
Quoting PipKiller



Here are your daily supply and demand levels to watch. Note that I had to go to the 240 minute to identify the demand level below because it looks like a spike low on the daily.

Price is struggling to get back through the 1.3450 - 1.3600 supply area, if it makes it through here, the 50% fib at 1.3730 and supply level above from 1.3770 - 1.3850 are in sight

Down channel is broken and price is currently ranging in a chanel up.

Double offset smoothed 5 MAs have crossed and are bullish

Attachment
It's nice to see your supply/demand areas line up nicely with my fibo levels
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,432
  • Dec 5, 2011 6:03am Dec 5, 2011 6:03am
Quoting bumapatria
as professional as dukascopy can be

this is what would happen if i followed their suggestion

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVytw0DlkfE
Good one Buma.

By the way. You are not supposed to follow anyone's suggestion. However, when a professional organization like Dukascopy confirm the technicals I draw out, I know I don't stand alone. The rest depends on uranus
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,433
  • Dec 5, 2011 6:13am Dec 5, 2011 6:13am
Quoting bumapatria
as professional as dukascopy can be

this is what would happen if i followed their suggestion

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVytw0DlkfE
there have been a few times when I've felt like that guy :-)

Now all is good. I take my time, look at my risk reward strategy, check and double-check trends (weekly, daily, 4h & 1h) and then look for my entry point (15m & 5m)
patience is a virtue
  • #13,434
  • Dec 5, 2011 6:15am Dec 5, 2011 6:15am
Quoting PipTrapper
It's nice to see your supply/demand areas line up nicely with my fibo levels
When different trading methods all line up it usually makes for a nice trade. The 55 sma, 38.2 fib and top of the up channel might make the 1.3610 tough to crack... but if she does, get out of the way.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #13,435
  • Dec 5, 2011 6:23am Dec 5, 2011 6:23am
Quoting AaronWard
I am a strong supporter of halving the US military budget. But what will this do to the economy? So many of high end US manufacturing jobs (you know, the ones they don't export to China) are directly or indirectly paid for by the US military.
I took sometime thinking about the answer, plenty of different things were coming in my mind..now finally get some time in the office to draft a consolidated reply. However, I think we should analyze this more so I would like to request AW to draw the conclusion.

The concern we have is a pretty much heap of Money Govt is spending on the Military (Now I do not want to take the example of US rather we should see this as a whole considering may be the Top Ten countries spending more on their Military).

Now the Govt (any) says this is not related to our country economy because No 1. We are spending money for providing you the Security, No2. We are also doing High-End Development/Manufacturing from a part of this Money. No 3. Bla..Bla..Bla .. so now u understand how efficiently we are managing .. nd again there is nothing to do with the economy.

So, this is the overall reply you'll get from the DM or PM of the Top Ten Countries spending heap of money on their Military.

Now, this is my personal view of looking at my country economy how this thing is effecting.

1. The Money: Are we sure that we have a clean Audit for all the money our Govt is spending? Is this audited by any neutral agency and we the public have this report before our govt approve the money for spending to any dept / development. First of all it is not the Govt Money, this Money belongs to all the Tax Payers (Direct / Indirect). Even a street beggar also pays Tax to Govt when he purchase a Match Box.

Ill/Bad effect to the Economy is if this money is not rightly measured for the purpose and goes to the Defense Dept for paying High Remuneration to stand-by officials, some unknown highly confidential projects which ordinery public does not aware of for the sake of what good?

There are plenty of examples I can provide from the India, where Defence Minister purchased no-use BOFORS AUTOMATIC CANNON from Germany where these cannons are just worthy as scraps as they were not using those ... spending crores of rupees on these scraps..on top of that theft some crores in his own swiss account!

Now the immediate effect of this the ruling party is exposed to the people / voters and then the oppositions started taking benefit of the situation.

Election - Re-election cause an instability in our social administration which effects ill / bad in the following sectors:

1. Industry (Agriculture/Manufacture)
2. Education
3. Peace (politically created riots)

As a summation, ordinary people suffers when ruling Govt. is not distribute / utilize people's money for people's good .. when this money flow disturbs inflation happens and cause a damage to our economy.

Now, a country and its economy will see healthy when the person spending the money is able to justify it through a clean Audit otherwise vise versa.

Also, another angle of viewing this - I am not feeling safe or proud when I see all the countries are spending more and more like a competition on the security as in spite of "feel good", "friendly tour" deep down insight I know they are preparing weapons to kill people..in war only the ordinary poor people is going to suffer, they are only going to pay the price for the cost of the war and daily necessities to live.

More money spending on defence = not good for me neither for my country economy.

I need clean drinking water, food, hospital, roads, school, pollution free air ..i do not want my country to participate building Atom-Bomb using my money....If frustrating on my Govt I relocate to other country do you think it is good for my country economy?
  • #13,436
  • Dec 5, 2011 6:31am Dec 5, 2011 6:31am
It looks like 1.35xx & 1.36xx levels have some retail selling power that needs to be broken. But most of the guys have banked their sells from 1.38xx @ around 1.3350.



Quoting PipKiller
When different trading methods all line up it usually makes for a nice trade. The 55 sma, 38.2 fib and top of the up channel might make the 1.3610 tough to crack... but if she does, get out of the way.
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #13,437
  • Dec 5, 2011 6:37am Dec 5, 2011 6:37am
Quoting rekon67
I took sometime thinking about the answer, plenty of different things were coming in my mind..now finally get some time in the office to draft a consolidated reply. However, I think we should analyze this more so I would like to request AW to draw the conclusion.
Hey Recon,

I agree with you. My question should have been read with irony. Probably more than any other country in the world, the US economy is involved in the manufacture of arms. I see this as bad.

When the government educates a child, that child will use this education and the US will end up with a better educated work force with greater efficiency. This money is well spent. When the government builds a road, that road improves the productive output of the country. This money is well spent. Both examples are cases where government expenditures create a multiplier effect. These expenditures are investments, not wasteful consumption.

When the US government builds yet another aircraft carrier (it already has the ten most powerful in the world) there is no multiplier. This is pure consumption and in my mind not that different than pouring money into a big hole.

Protecting our borders is a valid way to spend money. However, since the US military could still trounce both the Canadians and the Mexicans with half its current budget...
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #13,438
  • Dec 5, 2011 6:37am Dec 5, 2011 6:37am
Quoting Thijs
It looks like 1.35xx & 1.36xx levels have some retail selling power that needs to be broken. But most of the guys have banked their sells from 1.38xx @ around 1.3350.
Exactly, so when (if) we get back up to the next significant swing high (somewhere between 1.36 and 1.38), those same retail traders will be looking to "short like morons" all over again
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,439
  • Dec 5, 2011 6:41am Dec 5, 2011 6:41am
Quoting PipTrapper
... those same retail traders will be looking to "short like morons" all over again
Me me me. Well, If Angie approves printing press and Eurobonds I will wait quite long time for another short opportunity.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,440
  • Dec 5, 2011 6:48am Dec 5, 2011 6:48am
Quoting AaronWard
Hey Recon,

I agree with you. My question should have been read with irony. Probably more than any other country in the world, the US economy is involved in the manufacture of arms. I see this as bad.

When the government educates a child, that child will use this education and the US will end up with a better educated work force with greater efficiency. This money is well spent. When the government builds a road, that road improves the productive output of the country. This money is well spent. Both examples are cases where government expenditures...
May be Indian Govt. officials nd politicians (if they are educated enough) read this and understand how an expenditure could be as good as a good investment and resist themselves wasting public money by buying scraps from other countries.

Thank you AW .... a good reply
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