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Trading with Deadly Accuracy

  • #1,781
  • Dec 2, 2011 8:31am Dec 2, 2011 8:31am
just one more as its such a clean example (and I do not want to stray too much from Will's method - so any qus via pm only pls)

this pattern (example shows reversal of uptrend - u can apply the same for a down trend) is not mine, its taught by trading legend Larry Willams and called "the specialists trap". Used by traders in futures, though can apply to any market.
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  • #1,782
  • Dec 2, 2011 12:45pm Dec 2, 2011 12:45pm
Quoting Pat Mustard
Hi dazz, got to admit, it looks bullish, but this is the trend line I was looking at. Suppose it will depend on what the NFP says later.

30 min chart
I like this line too.)
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  • #1,783
  • Dec 3, 2011 9:57pm Dec 3, 2011 9:57pm
Hi All,

what timeframes do you normally trade using WMD's method?

I have seen charts in 5min to 4H timeframes and was wondering how you would apply the method in trading?

My first thoughts are:
- if I find a pattern emerging in H1 timeframe that has potential to be qualified as the Deadly method, then I look into longer timeframes (e.g. H4) to find confirming signs, e.g. trendlines, S/R that support the trade in H1.

What scares me, honestly, is that, we will try to see what we want to see. So, I can find many potential trade signals in M5 but they may not be good signals.

Hope to get the views of the experienced folks.

thanks, Fuzzy.
  • #1,784
  • Dec 4, 2011 3:43pm Dec 4, 2011 3:43pm
Quoting fuzzy
Hi All,

what timeframes do you normally trade using WMD's method?

I have seen charts in 5min to 4H timeframes and was wondering how you would apply the method in trading?

My first thoughts are:
- if I find a pattern emerging in H1 timeframe that has potential to be qualified as the Deadly method, then I look into longer timeframes (e.g. H4) to find confirming signs, e.g. trendlines, S/R that support the trade in H1.

What scares me, honestly, is that, we will try to see what we want to see. So, I can find many potential trade signals in M5...
The smaller the timeframe, the more likely your pattern will be false. For setups, unless you are very experienced, consider sticking to 1hr and above.
  • #1,785
  • Dec 5, 2011 2:59am Dec 5, 2011 2:59am
Quoting dazzdude
just one more as its such a clean example (and I do not want to stray too much from Will's method - so any qus via pm only pls)

this pattern (example shows reversal of uptrend - u can apply the same for a down trend) is not mine, its taught by trading legend Larry Willams and called "the specialists trap". Used by traders in futures, though can apply to any market.


Appreciate and thank you for sharing this other deadly setup pattern.
  • #1,786
  • Dec 5, 2011 4:23am Dec 5, 2011 4:23am
Hi,

I might be posting a little less from this point forward, but will still be posting things of interest as I see them.

I would like to start this week with something I believe is rather special, because it so simple.

It requires practically no analysis beyond a keen eye... basically childs play for 370 pips within a coulpe days.

Trade would be taken with a 30 to 40 pip stop for entry, 370 pip target (reward / risk ratio of 10:1).

In this instance, price should not have gone against you more then a few pips for an easy 370 pip target.

Basically, the set up is.

1. Trade with trend
2. Good candle setup in good location
3. Target that should as like a magnet to draw price

Simple works... Focus on the 'thinking', not so much the trade.

Here is the post where I showed the set up. Please look at this first.

Below is how the trade played out for 370 pip target.

I hope it makes sense.

deadly?

dazz
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  • #1,787
  • Dec 5, 2011 5:10am Dec 5, 2011 5:10am
One more example using the same thinking... with potential target ranging from 400 pips to 700 pips.

Please see this post first so you can see the potential setup.

I showed two options:

Option 1. If upper weekly resistance breaks - go long on pullback to level

Option 2. Short option where price moves away upper weekly resistance

In this instance, we are looking for a simple reason to go short (option 2) while under the weekly resistance holds if we get a simple reason to go short.

That could be any reason, for example break of first weekly inside bar short, or break of next weekly pin short.

Target is back to trend lines below (which then can set up a long).

The concept is the same though.

dazz
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  • #1,788
  • Dec 5, 2011 5:22am Dec 5, 2011 5:22am
One more post cuz I find this PA very interesting...

Please see post first for very interesting MONTHLY chart of EURGBP I posted previously.

Here is a follow up looking at the weekly candles.

dazz
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  • #1,789
  • Dec 5, 2011 5:33am Dec 5, 2011 5:33am
sry to maybe more bore you all, just one more to hit home the simple stuff

basically same examples as above

please see post first [as again I show the option 1 (long) option 2 (short) setup, from which we are just looking for a reason to take a sound logical reason to take entry - could use weekly pin as example]

I hope u c

(that move is 500 pips, one candle, keep it simple)

dazz
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  • #1,790
  • Dec 5, 2011 6:17am Dec 5, 2011 6:17am
Quoting dazzdude
sry to maybe more bore you all, just one more to hit home the simple stuff

basically same examples as above

please see post first [as again I show the option 1 (long) option 2 (short) setup, from which we are just looking for a reason to take a sound logical reason to take entry - could use weekly pin as example]

I hope u c

(that move is 500 pips, one candle, keep it simple)

dazz
Nice lines D. Some MACD debts left way up. And they usually get repaid.
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Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #1,791
  • Dec 5, 2011 6:47am Dec 5, 2011 6:47am
Quoting Mr.C
Nice lines D. Some MACD debts left way up. And they usually get repaid.
Beautiful divergence Mr.C.

...don't let Will catch u posting an indi (I won't tell) ... LOL

dazz
  • #1,792
  • Dec 5, 2011 6:58am Dec 5, 2011 6:58am
Quoting dazzdude
Beautiful divergence Mr.C.

...don't let Will catch u posting an indi (I won't tell) ... LOL

dazz
Upss . Cool D, little secret of ours. LOL.
Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #1,793
  • Dec 5, 2011 6:10pm Dec 5, 2011 6:10pm
Congratulations to WMD, nice job on your site.
  • #1,794
  • Dec 5, 2011 10:01pm Dec 5, 2011 10:01pm
Quoting calderone
Congratulations to WMD, nice job on your site.
+1

Great site.
very valuable teaching tool.

CJ
  • #1,795
  • Dec 6, 2011 8:29am Dec 6, 2011 8:29am
Quoting Mr.C
Nice lines D. Some MACD debts left way up. And they usually get repaid.
Dazz,

thanks for sharing. Very informative and great for my learning.

I notice that you have been posting Weekly charts and using PA from them.

Sorry if this is a dumb question but do you use weekly charts for pin bars and inside bar breakouts for screening potential trades?

I have been using mainly the following:
- check D1 for trend and look to trade with the trend
- Check H4 for PA to enter
- sometimes, I also use H1 for faster entry (as using H4, may miss the boat in big price moves)

Fuzzy
  • #1,796
  • Dec 6, 2011 8:49am Dec 6, 2011 8:49am
Quoting fuzzy
Dazz,

thanks for sharing. Very informative and great for my learning.

I notice that you have been posting Weekly charts and using PA from them.

Sorry if this is a dumb question but do you use weekly charts for pin bars and inside bar breakouts for screening potential trades?

I have been using mainly the following:
- check D1 for trend and look to trade with the trend
- Check H4 for PA to enter
- sometimes, I also use H1 for faster entry (as using H4, may miss the boat in big price moves)

Fuzzy
There are no dumb questions.

Use what ever time frame you feel works for you.

Larger time frames are generally easier and more reliable to find setups, though you will not find setups are often. They also provide large targets, so you get good reward to risk ratio,using a small time frame for entry.

dddd has good material on his thread on this 'idea' and I maybe you can check it out to understand his 'thinking'.

I do like a good weekly pin bar bar, yes. But, I use it mainly for Bias. If I can get a good entry on a lower time frame, and I now have a "Weekly Bias", then I like to 'try' and hold all or part of the trade for a weekly time frame target or just close at the end of the week. I find this works well and can keep things simple.

However, its important to understand that most candle setups are 50/50 on accuracy. In fact, you will probably do just as well closing your eyes, picking a pair and flipping a coin. Heads long, tails short.

Therefore, what is critical, is where the pattern forms. It only means something and is useful if it happens where you expect it to. Anywhere else can be meaningless and a 'red herring', also known as (DLC) 'dirty lying candles'.

In addition to this, you also should have a target. In my mind, something that will attrack price.

Finally, you should be taking any position with the understanding of your BIAS (which could be as simple as following the longer term trend).

I hope that helps. Keep it simple.

Ask any questions.

dazz
  • #1,797
  • Dec 7, 2011 1:16am Dec 7, 2011 1:16am
Aud$, lines and levels
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  • #1,798
  • Dec 7, 2011 1:30am Dec 7, 2011 1:30am
Eur$, lines and levels

(a followup on my thoughts from about a week ago)
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  • #1,799
  • Dec 7, 2011 3:47am Dec 7, 2011 3:47am
Thanks dazz for posting all the examples and explanations of various setups. Since I re-discovered this thread a couple of weeks ago (big thanks to wmd for starting it) I have grown as a trader.

I used to focus more on smaller tfs and my results have been very average. Looking at the bigger picture takes a lot of uncertainty out of trading and the risk/reward ratio is much better.

I am also intrigued by your use of trendlines, I only had them above the highs in a downtrend and below the lows in an uptrend. It is interesting to see how price behaves around various other lines as well. Is there a good thread here at FF that you can recommend to learn more about tls.

Thanks
Thomas
  • #1,800
  • Dec 7, 2011 5:37am Dec 7, 2011 5:37am
Hi Thomas,

Thanks for the kind words. I have tried just about everything you can think if over the last 10 years. At the end of an amazing and often frustating and painful journey, I have found nothing better than a good line.

Sorry, I cannot recommend any threads unfortunately, but if you find one, please let me know.

Without doubt, Will is the best trend line trader I have come accross. I've been very lucky to pick up some basics from him. It's a shame he does not pop in here more often and share some more of his magic. The true pros don't need to hang out in public forums though.... trying to make a dime like you and I.

The other person who appears to have the "gift of the line" is belekas. I find his charts very inspiring.

The best tip I and provide this....

When looking at a posted chart (say from Will or Bel, for example), think to yourself....

"what are they thinking when they draw that line?"
"of all the lines that could be drawn, why that one?"
"why choose those points to draw a line accross?"
"how would they use that line to define the trend?"
"how would they use that line to define the bias"?"
"how are they pulling hundreds of pips a week from these lines?"
"does that line form a chart pattern?"
"I wonder how price will behave when it comes back to the line?"

This spend a lot of time observing. Observe the price action when the level holds... Observe the price action when the level fails.

I think you get the picture.... Do not just go....

"Oh, that's a sexy line!"

Imagine what thoughts they are thinking and how they use a line as a tool to deciper, plan and excute their trades.

I have stared at some of Wills and Bels charts thinking these thoughts for several minutes on end.... then then the reason jumps out at me and I go "ah!!!! I get it now!!!!" Der!!!!

Sorry for the rant, but if you understand what I am saying, its a very power message.

Good luck. I am still learning to!

dazz
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