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Trading Made Simple

  • #13,941
  • Dec 4, 2011 6:54am Dec 4, 2011 6:54am
Quoting TehCount
I've searched extensively through this thread, but I'm still really confused regarding backtesting using the TDI.

While using the Strategy Tester the TDI is painted at the beginning of each candle. This value appears to be for the previous candle. This is also what I believe I'm seeing live, when a new bar appears. The TDI represents the previous candles movement, and I would make my trading decision based on that.

However, when I scroll to the left on any chart to do manual backtesting, the TDI values appear to be for the current candles....
I've noticed the same phenomenon: browsing through the historical charts, all those juicy looking TDI crosses happen right at the first red or blue HA candle. You start thinking that it's impossible to lose, since all good angle entries deliver at least 50 pips. See for instance screenshot "1. Historical chart showing juicy TDI cross at 3PM +1.PNG".

However reality is less beautiful. I'm using Ninjatrader which has a Market Replay function. I replayed last Friday 12-02. At 3PM GMT+1, all three amigos started to rapidly move down on H1 timeframe.
However, at the open of the 3PM GMT+1 candles, green was merely touching red, not crossing it (see "2. Replay situation at 3PM GMT+1.PNG").
At the open of the 4PM GMT+1 candles there were confirmed TDI crosses (see "2. Replay situation at 4PM GMT+1.PNG").

In this particular case, the trade on the second red candle down still went on to 100+ pips (I actually closed it at TDI hooking which resulted in "just" 80 pips).

In other cases you might be too late in the game since the move up or down may have taken place mostly in the first candle.
After all, TDI is a lagging indicator just like all the other indicator.

Therefore I think Dl4hao has a point by saying that forward testing is the best way to find out if TMS will be profitable for you.

Backtesting however can make you familiar with detecting good TDI crosses, when to take them / not to take them, exits, etc.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1. Historical chart showing juicy TDI cross at 3PM +1.PNG Size: 79 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2. Replay situation at 3PM GMT+1.PNG Size: 78 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 3. Replay situation at 4PM GMT+1.PNG Size: 77 KB
Financial independence is what I live for
  • #13,942
  • Dec 4, 2011 10:00am Dec 4, 2011 10:00am
Hi Xman could you add me to the skype group..my uid on skype is pylofm...

I have been following this method and am learning...as we speak....have made a 36% profit so far last month on a 1k demo account with Alpari.

Been through and read this thread...now starting it again to make sure I have got the full info...

Cheers
Dave.
  • #13,943
  • Dec 4, 2011 11:42am Dec 4, 2011 11:42am
Quoting Android38
Aren,

Your indicator are perfectly identify the trend..
Are they repaint?

yes, after repaint, foung better.
  • #13,944
  • Dec 4, 2011 12:37pm Dec 4, 2011 12:37pm
Looks like we have a bunch of indicators that have very little / no connection to the TMS set ups.

Please take these discussions to PM or start another thread.

We are trying to stay true to Big E's approach and charts - adding a bunch of indicators takes you away from the S part of TMS.

None of the additional indicators will give you any more information than you already have and only serve to clutter up the charts and then cause you to second guess - "will it repaint?" " should I wait for indicator # 24 to show an entry?" and so on.

All indicators are "lagging indicators" They tell you what happened and use algorithms / averages, so are a compilation of past events. The only live indicator is Price Action. As yet I have found no indicators that show me what the next candle will do. In summary, there is no 100% system, you will take losses, we all do.

For H1 charts, read Ph62's posts - they are crystal clear as are his charts.

For the methodology and set ups read the PDF / Word docs in the attachment section - especially "TradinMadeSimple.pdf" and "dcg inc.pdf"

Also, X-Man is running a new thread - based off of TDI and TMS principles but with a few tweaks.

Several of the traders regularly post their charts and results - Do not re-invent the wheel folks.

I trade H4 and Day - my chart is attached and the indicators are all here - again, all down to personal preferences - develop your trading style:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...18#post5111018

With regards to FF Threads - I tend to watch, more than post these days - my trading plan and risk management have settled down to the approach that I can trade and the charts speak for themselves when I post trades and set ups. I have not changed my indicators / chart set ups for several months. Occasionally I will test out an indicator, but yet to find a new one worth adding.

As far as forex basics and candles, etc - BabyPips.com - If you need information on an indicator, try the search function, it works really well - and then there is that little used tool Google!

Happy trading
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #13,945
  • Dec 4, 2011 1:32pm Dec 4, 2011 1:32pm
The best money management calc link I have found yet.

I use this calculator before I place a trade.

It has all pairs, even gold and silver.

http://www.earnforex.com/position-size-calculator

Brilliant!
  • #13,946
  • Edited 2:16pm Dec 4, 2011 2:00pm | Edited 2:16pm
My weird charts
Hi Britpip, you're probably referring to my charts but I don't think I use any non TMS indicators.
I certainly do understand that it's not helpful to be posting charts with a bunch of confusing stuff not related to TMS.

Ok, I admit the arrows with digits next to them may raise some eyebrows .
They're just visual aids for TDI crosses with a value for slope (the numbers next to them).
Oh and I've overlayed stochs on TDI (yellowish line on TDI).
Finally the turquoise bands are used to help me identify the trend. Kind of like the SHI channel X-Man suggested.

Sorry if I've caused any confusion.

(Back)testing TMS
Quoting eelfranz
Have a good weekend all...

If your on the charts please take the time to study old charts looking for set ups... look at s/r near by, pick it apart as to why it was a successful trade so you can spot them when trading live...

Great job this week everyone...
Financial independence is what I live for
  • #13,947
  • Dec 4, 2011 2:18pm Dec 4, 2011 2:18pm
Quoting smatthew
My weird charts
Hi Britpip, you're probably referring to my charts but I don't think I use any non TMS indicators.
I certainly do understand that it's not helpful to be posting charts with a bunch of confusing stuff not related to TMS.

Ok, I admit the arrows with digits next to them may raise some eyebrows .
They're just visual aids for TDI crosses with a value for slope (the numbers next to them).
Oh and I've overlayed stochs on TDI (yellowish line on TDI).
Finally the turquoise bands are used to help me identify the trend. Kind...
Doesn't matter how much back testing you do, the only way to perfect the approach is live / forward testing.

Just for giggles, I read back through my back testing from June and the beast month on average on Day charts was 500 - 600 pips. Currently on live / forward trading / testing my average on H4 is 800 pips. The backtesting proved the approach, the live testing fine tuned and perfected the approach.

The historical charts train your brain on what works - look for great set-up candles and then determine what you need from TDI to confirm your entry - not all TDI crosses are created equal and some will hurt! Mostly when they hurt you, go and study the chart / timeframes / news / etc. to learn what happened. Ususally there is something in the set up that would have kept you out of the trade if you followed your trade plan. Sometimes it just reversed on you and that is one you put down the forex gods! Pay the forex gods - they will take some back every now and then.

On the topic of killing a trade - I never use TDI - I use the candles and PA to confirm an exit along with MM. I always open two trades for each entry position - so when conjestion occurs I may close one, move up the SL and let the second run or get stopped out.

Again - this is something I have developed by running live and reading over and over the key folks off of this thread - there is no substitute for screen time.
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #13,948
  • Dec 4, 2011 2:25pm Dec 4, 2011 2:25pm
I def dont think more indicators is the answer.Its like i read in that book millionaire traders.The currency trader guy said that with enough studying you can be very profitable off one indicator.

My approach is to keep it simple as possible.I trade the daily charts and all i have is the original tdi The one with the bands and the heiken ash candles...thats it.

Before when i woke up sometimes i would try to mess around with the one hour or 15 minute time frames but i have decided to dedicate myself to the daily.I might try the higher ones one day when i get it down but for now only the daily.

With this approach i managed to make Over 2000 pips last month.I actually got out of some of my trades early so i would have gotten even more.

Keep it simple
  • #13,949
  • Dec 4, 2011 2:31pm Dec 4, 2011 2:31pm
Quoting Britpip7
Doesn't matter how much back testing you do, the only way to perfect the approach is live / forward testing.

Just for giggles, I read back through my back testing from June and the beast month on average on Day charts was 500 - 600 pips. Currently on live / forward trading / testing my average on H4 is 800 pips. The backtesting proved the approach, the live testing fine tuned and perfected the approach.

The historical charts train your brain on what works - look for great set-up candles and then determine what you need from TDI to confirm...
I must admit I should reflect more on my failed trades when forward testing.
My dream is to have quit my dayjob well before I'm dead. Going to work everyday just to be able to pay the bills is plain slavery.
Financial independence is what I live for
  • #13,950
  • Dec 4, 2011 2:55pm Dec 4, 2011 2:55pm
Hi Britpip,

Thanks for explaining this, I will go back through and read all the suggestions you have made.

One question, I have searched for Ph62's posts but when I type in his name I do not recieve any search results back.

Do you happen to have one of his post bookmarked. I know if I can get one post I can click on his name and see all the rest.

Thanks for providing this information. The reason why humans are successful as a species is that we have a common language and can learn from one another. So I appreciate your hard work and sharing of knowledge. Intellectual theft!

http://www.ted.com/talks/mark_pagel_how_language_transformed_humanity.html

Can't forget a big thanks to bigE!



Quoting Britpip7
Looks like we have a bunch of indicators that have very little / no connection to the TMS set ups.

Please take these discussions to PM or start another thread.

We are trying to stay true to Big E's approach and charts - adding a bunch of indicators takes you away from the S part of TMS.

None of the additional indicators will give you any more information than you already have and only serve to clutter up the charts and then cause you to second guess - "will it repaint?" " should I wait for indicator # 24 to show an entry?" and so on....
  • #13,951
  • Dec 4, 2011 3:22pm Dec 4, 2011 3:22pm
It is phx62 - try this:

http://www.forexfactory.com/phx62


Quoting jasonnevis
Hi Britpip,

Thanks for explaining this, I will go back through and read all the suggestions you have made.

One question, I have searched for Ph62's posts but when I type in his name I do not recieve any search results back.

Do you happen to have one of his post bookmarked. I know if I can get one post I can click on his name and see all the rest.

Thanks for providing this information. The reason why humans are successful as a species is that we have a common language and can learn from one another. So I appreciate your hard work and sharing...
Read the entire thread BEFORE you ask questions!
  • #13,952
  • Dec 4, 2011 3:27pm Dec 4, 2011 3:27pm
Thanks Johnami,

I see it's actually spelt slightly different.

Thank you.

Quoting johnami
It is phx62 - try this:

http://www.forexfactory.com/phx62
  • #13,953
  • Dec 4, 2011 3:37pm Dec 4, 2011 3:37pm
sorry for the mistoop

it is Phx62
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #13,954
  • Dec 4, 2011 5:37pm Dec 4, 2011 5:37pm
Last week was a very busy week for me, without much sleep, but I still managed to get some good trades in. I had already posted Mon & Tues trades. No trades on Wed, Thurs PA was ranging and took a long time to reach profit but Friday was a good trading day....lots of pips. The trading plan is simple and it works. You have to trust the TDI crosses and watch what PA is doing. Thanks to Big E for showing me the system and X-Man, Britpip7, Erebus, Dean and all the rest of the contributors, keep up the good work.
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  • #13,955
  • Dec 5, 2011 1:56am Dec 5, 2011 1:56am
Quoting Phx62
Last week was a very busy week for me, without much sleep, but I still managed to get some good trades in. I had already posted Mon & Tues trades. No trades on Wed, Thurs PA was ranging and took a long time to reach profit but Friday was a good trading day....lots of pips. The trading plan is simple and it works. You have to trust the TDI crosses and watch what PA is doing. Thanks to Big E for showing me the system and X-Man, Britpip7, Erebus, Dean and all the rest of the contributors, keep up the good work.
Hello phx62
pls ur temp and indicator upload pls for download.
thank you.
  • #13,956
  • Dec 5, 2011 5:28am Dec 5, 2011 5:28am
Phx62, as always, very nice for sharing your way of trading with us.
Keep up the good work
  • #13,957
  • Dec 5, 2011 5:52am Dec 5, 2011 5:52am
Quoting Phx62
Last week was a very busy week for me, without much sleep, but I still managed to get some good trades in. I had already posted Mon & Tues trades. No trades on Wed, Thurs PA was ranging and took a long time to reach profit but Friday was a good trading day....lots of pips. The trading plan is simple and it works. You have to trust the TDI crosses and watch what PA is doing. Thanks to Big E for showing me the system and X-Man, Britpip7, Erebus, Dean and all the rest of the contributors, keep up the good work.
Nice clean setups. good going. I wanted to ask.. on hourly charts your average target is 50 pips? if Pa is going nicely.
  • #13,958
  • Dec 5, 2011 7:50am Dec 5, 2011 7:50am
any good setups ???
  • #13,959
  • Dec 5, 2011 10:46am Dec 5, 2011 10:46am
Just received 150 pips out of gbp/usd. This system really rocks!


all the best everyone
  • #13,960
  • Dec 5, 2011 1:33pm Dec 5, 2011 1:33pm
love 61.8 position!
and u 2.
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