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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #13,341
  • Dec 4, 2011 3:01pm Dec 4, 2011 3:01pm
Quoting the redlion
you can do what i was doing by calculating standard deviations to get a range or again draw lines on like support and resistance

eyeball the cyclical pattern and small cycles within the cycles, then obtain an average deviation from the regression line and account for it on your forecast.
by taking into account the cycle you are in.
Ah ok, I get it. Well, thats cycle trading what are you proposing here. I am eyeballing cycles all the time. In fact thats all I do. I eyeball cycles in GDP and in Dow and then I use these cycles to eyball cycles in EURUSD. Simple, isnt it . Then I do waves and waves within waves within waves..... and count it all in excel. Bam. And I see one big fat bear. Very fat bear.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,342
  • Dec 4, 2011 3:04pm Dec 4, 2011 3:04pm
Quoting the redlion
just saying, outlook can be band for the EURO but dont marry your bias
I already married my bias since I was born. I was born stubborn self confident bastard. I always absolutely believe that I have the truth. When I dont, well, that usually hurts. But I am getting used to it.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,343
  • Dec 4, 2011 3:04pm Dec 4, 2011 3:04pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Ah ok, I get it. Well, thats cycle trading what are you proposing here. I am eyeballing cycles all the time. In fact thats all I do. I eyeball cycles in GDP and in Dow and then I use these cycles to eyball cycles in EURUSD. Simple, isnt it . Then I do waves and waves within waves within waves..... and count it all in excel. Bam. And I see one big fat bear. Very fat bear.

T
hahahahaha
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #13,344
  • Dec 4, 2011 3:06pm Dec 4, 2011 3:06pm
Quoting the redlion
hahahahaha
I will look for my cycle mumbo jumbo I was posting for buma. It is not as nice as it looks on my table when drawn with pencil, but anyway, just so you see what I am looking at.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,345
  • Dec 4, 2011 3:07pm Dec 4, 2011 3:07pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I made a bit cycle research, mainly because of Buma, but several people here were interested in this mumbo jumbo, se here it goes:

The longest term and totally useless Mumbo Jumbo ever witnessed:

Statisics of Daily closing prices in period 1992 - till now.

For measuring of cycles, I am looking for lows now, but since it is exchange rate, it could be highs as well. There are just too many angles you can use for looking at cycles. Selection of points for measuring is higly individual, and thats why I call it mumbo jumbo. Nevertheless,...
Hah, pretty fast. Take a look. That is serious mumbo jumbo.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,346
  • Dec 4, 2011 3:10pm Dec 4, 2011 3:10pm
If we could open on or around 1.3440...

Had two glasses of scotch so far, so I may be deadly wrong :
  • #13,347
  • Dec 4, 2011 3:15pm Dec 4, 2011 3:15pm
Quoting michaelnew
If we could open on or around 1.3440...

Had two glasses of scotch so far, so I may be deadly wrong :
I don't think you are... from the way I see it.. traders are going to expect the Parliament to approve monti's plan.

I'd like to see 1.3470 at least (not exactly at the open).
  • #13,348
  • Dec 4, 2011 3:20pm Dec 4, 2011 3:20pm
Quoting Pbh
I'd like to see 1.3470 at least (not exactly at the open).
A bit far fetched, but not impossible. Maybe during London.
  • #13,349
  • Dec 4, 2011 3:24pm Dec 4, 2011 3:24pm
Quoting michaelnew
A bit far fetched, but not impossible. Maybe during London.
Exactly
  • #13,350
  • Dec 4, 2011 3:31pm Dec 4, 2011 3:31pm
Dont you tell me Fibo fans work. I have just put it there so I can look for the angles in which is the market moving but this seems interesting. Yellow line is fibo fan.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: m5.gif Size: 18 KB
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,351
  • Dec 4, 2011 3:37pm Dec 4, 2011 3:37pm
pretty cool cycle analysis
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #13,352
  • Dec 4, 2011 3:42pm Dec 4, 2011 3:42pm
Tnx, I am glad you liked that.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,353
  • Dec 4, 2011 3:43pm Dec 4, 2011 3:43pm
Merkel likened the battle to contain the crisis to a marathon, warning Europe against speeding from the start line with measures that would come back to haunt it before the finish line was reached.

"Marathon runners often say that the run becomes especially difficult at the 35 kilometer mark, but they also say that reaching the finish line is possible if you are conscious of the full challenge from the very start and approach it accordingly," Merkel told lawmakers in the Bundestag lower house.


"The one who starts fastest isn't necessarily the most successful. It is the one who is aware of what is involved in running the full distance."



Interesting analogy


http://www.cnbc.com/id/45507921
  • #13,354
  • Dec 4, 2011 3:54pm Dec 4, 2011 3:54pm
Quoting michaelnew

edit: not related to the topic, but if you do a search on "monti rescue plan" on Google, it brings in this thread on the first position. Anyone else is seeing this, or it is something that Google does to me, because it knows that I'm watching this constantly?
You probably have Google desktop or the Google tool bar installed.
I tried the search and Forex Factory doesn't even make the first page. I didn't check past there.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,355
  • Dec 4, 2011 3:56pm Dec 4, 2011 3:56pm
Quoting PipTrapper
You probably have Google desktop or the Google tool bar installed.
I tried the search and Forex Factory doesn't even make the first page. I didn't check past there.
thanks for the insight, so it's a Google matching thing...
  • #13,356
  • Dec 4, 2011 4:01pm Dec 4, 2011 4:01pm
ok, so we opened on 1.3420...
  • #13,357
  • Dec 4, 2011 4:12pm Dec 4, 2011 4:12pm
The government will tax the houses, the stamps will increase "and not only on current accounts", will tax the boats over 10 meters, luxury cars and private jets, the VAT increase will start from September 1, 2012. But no increase in Irpef. This was stated by Minister for Relations with Parliament, which has so Piero Giarda denied press rumors of an increase of 46% over the $ 75,000 bracket. Shortly before the Deputy Minister of Economy Vittorio Grilli had provided the numbers of the maneuver: 20 billion euros net and 30 gross, in full compliance with the requirements of the European Commission.
  • #13,358
  • Dec 4, 2011 4:28pm Dec 4, 2011 4:28pm
Quoting michaelnew
ok, so we opened on 1.3420...
Normally, I expect the Asian session to be wrong... so if it ranges it would be OK.
  • #13,359
  • Dec 4, 2011 5:15pm Dec 4, 2011 5:15pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Oh, watch the music video too. Not related, but it's good for some entertainment

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XF2ayWcJfxo
Things that make you go Hmmmmmmmmmm!!!!

Reading this thread makes one think all the big Euro bears are here. Almost every fundamental article posted in this thread says the euro should die a painfull death.......... But has anyone stop to anylze why it doesn't crash ........ Hmmmmmmm.... Something to think about.

I'll be the first to admit that some of my worst trades the last few years has been to go long the US dollar.

With helicopter Ben tossing out bags of money, US lame duck politics and the talking heads in Europe that can't agree on anything but to spew rumors and denials.

This pair is just an ugly dog contest.


Just something to think about,. All the best for many green pips to all this week. Keep a clear mind. Trade what is real, not what you feel.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #13,360
  • Dec 4, 2011 5:18pm Dec 4, 2011 5:18pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Here is the latest edition of Attachment .

It is always a "must read" for anyone interested in the fundies that drive the markets....[/url]

Just read the report. Yes, very interesting and the reference to Nelson reminds me of the conversation we had over dinner last night.

A friend of mine is involved in special forces training and his take on things was quite interesting.... his take was primarily from a security perspective (with trade implications) and it was this:

The PIIGS control the majority of sea access to the EuroZone. This gives them power, not just in terms of fishing rights, oil, gas etc etc.. but from a security perspective. They could unify. They could make security deals with Russia/China. Greece is the No.1 ARMS buyer in the Eurozone - something that Russia would be happy with.

Ireland has oil/gas fields that are as yet untouched - again, something that Russia/China would be very interested in developing further.

Imagine the impact on trade were all PIIGS to close their ports to core Europe? What would that do to Germany exports?

Obviously any/all existing euro debts are simply not paid.

I thought it was an interesting angle - comments welcome.



trade well

LP
patience is a virtue
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