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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #13,301
  • Dec 4, 2011 6:15am Dec 4, 2011 6:15am
Quoting AaronWard
So guys, where does trading forex fit into the picture?

It seems to me that while I labor quite mightily at forex, my productive output is pretty near zero. In most people's view of the world I belong in the parasite category. And if you are here talking with me about this you are likely to enjoy this status or you aspire to enjoy this status.

Any takers?
Me me me.

Ofc you can not seriosly separate financial liberalism from other ascpects of life. FX market is the same like any othe market. You just buy or sell goods. Recession of democratic system reflects in FX market and one needs to understand general social conditions in order to be profitable. So we aint parasites and we need to talk about politicians and social moods.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,302
  • Dec 4, 2011 6:34am Dec 4, 2011 6:34am
Quoting AaronWard
not a bad answer, but still...other than taxes, what is our productive contribution to society? And from the perspective of productive output of society, wouldn't the net of goods and services be greater if we were making shoes, writing mortgages or designing houses?
Hah. Aaron I love you. I wonder if you have read Marx? That was a clever one guy and was questioning exactly the same thing. Good economist. Unfortunately for him, communists took whole his doctrine and twisted it into, well, weapon against middle class. Poor Marx is turning around in his grave for sure.

Anyway, Marx´s point was, that redistribution of goods is not as important as making of goods. We as traders, are redistributing goods and taking profit. It is the same Tesco does, or Wallmart. Marx was saying, that once good gets to the final customer value added should be separated between trader and maker of goods in such a way that maker has more. Lets say maker has 70% and trader 30%. This is very good point since usually it is the opposite. Moreover oligopoly can prevail here as well, so it may eventually run to such an extreme that shoe makers wouldnt be able to deliver goods since there will be only Wallmart there robbing them all and no other traders. Thats what Marx was trying to stop and it is question for a very long debate, whether it should/could be regulated somehow, for example through redistribution of VAT.

Yet Marx as well as you, are missing one important point. Trading is goods. Trading is service and a valuable one. The maker of the shoe is only able to make those shoes but is unable to sell them. Maybe he is ugly, maybe he is mute, whatever. He aint able to sell. So you, as a trader are producing goods called redistributing service. If it wasnt for me and the rest of the bears for example, poor Angie who wants to go long EUR couldnt.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,303
  • Dec 4, 2011 6:35am Dec 4, 2011 6:35am
Quoting nubcake
trading provides liquidity for those who may need to either...
My answer was better .

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,304
  • Dec 4, 2011 7:50am Dec 4, 2011 7:50am
Quoting AaronWard

That fellow who calls himself a liquidity provider pretty much nails it.
"Don't Panic..."
  • #13,305
  • Dec 4, 2011 7:54am Dec 4, 2011 7:54am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Me me me.

Ofc you can not seriosly separate financial liberalism from other ascpects of life. FX market is the same like any othe market. You just buy or sell goods. Recession of democratic system reflects in FX market and one needs to understand general social conditions in order to be profitable. So we aint parasites and we need to talk about politicians and social moods.

T
Just when I was thinking I had the rat race beat, that i had evolved to parasite status, you tell me I am useful.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #13,306
  • Dec 4, 2011 8:33am Dec 4, 2011 8:33am
Quoting lovepips
nice one Michael New - what's your source?

thanks,
LP
For this specific transit, this is the link: http://www.astrologicalinvesting.com...in-Pisces.html

I'm not affiliated with them, nor do I recommend any paid product, but this article seemed in line with my own insights about Nepune in natal astrology.
  • #13,307
  • Dec 4, 2011 10:10am Dec 4, 2011 10:10am
There is still a gap to be filled from last week. Yes I know there is actually not a gap, but the perception of one is there. And if you look at feeds from brokers who show the gap you will see that price will move back to close them.

Monthly is still in the down at the 50%. Weekly has returned to the down after a brief correction. The daily is currently in a consolidation phase.

The 200 MA held as resistance on the shorter term charts and price has moved back to the 100 MA. The action from Friday put the intraday charts back into the down. There has been no 'miracle' solutions to the Euro problem this weekend, so we should move to fill this gap sometime this week.

I'm not very good at longer term prognostications, but I think we can get below 1.3000 this month as long as the hopium headlines don't start to be spewed out again.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #13,308
  • Dec 4, 2011 10:13am Dec 4, 2011 10:13am
Quoting AaronWard
Just when I was thinking I had the rat race beat, that i had evolved to parasite status, you tell me I am useful.
, n1 Aaron.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,309
  • Dec 4, 2011 10:23am Dec 4, 2011 10:23am
Quoting spzd

I'm not very good at longer term prognostications, but I think we can get below 1.3000 this month as long as the hopium headlines don't start to be spewed out again.
I am betting on it but not till after the EU summit.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,310
  • Dec 4, 2011 10:38am Dec 4, 2011 10:38am
PT, it can break sooner. There is Ecofin forum on Wednesday, so it is pretty possible, that market will aready know on Wednesday, that there wont be any outcome out of summit. Moreover, taking insider trading into consideration (or market expectations) it can already crumble on Tuesday. And Tom will be shorting since Monday as my expectations are still the same.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,311
  • Dec 4, 2011 11:21am Dec 4, 2011 11:21am
... Which may help the up gap some uf us were seeing.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/05/wo...-measures.html

If you don't have time to read the article: Monti moved a meeting of his cabinet which was scheduled for Monday, today. At the moment of writing this, the cabinet meeting should be almost done. If the message of this meeting is strong (it's about a very heavy austerity plan) markets may gap up.

I don't see any other reason for moving the meeting from Monday to today other than keeping the baloon floating. And it may very well fly...
  • #13,312
  • Dec 4, 2011 11:24am Dec 4, 2011 11:24am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
PT, it can break sooner. There is Ecofin forum on Wednesday, so it is pretty possible, that market will aready know on Wednesday, that there wont be any outcome out of summit. Moreover, taking insider trading into consideration (or market expectations) it can already crumble on Tuesday. And Tom will be shorting since Monday as my expectations are still the same.

T
I am very curious... around this hope time, market starts to become ideal to short.. because almost "everything" has already been done (I mean, for this period of time... period = ECB, finance ministers, and politicians step in everytime we get a pretty decent crash, just to allow us to short higher).

I'm still waiting for the possibility of a fiscal integration, because to me, it looks pretty much late to ride the bull train.

In case we don't get the fiscal integration or euro printing, it's back to reality...

Anyways, euro printing would devalue the currency, so I'm pretty much between a dilema waiting for the right opportunity that might come sooner or later.
  • #13,313
  • Dec 4, 2011 11:29am Dec 4, 2011 11:29am
Quoting michaelnew
... Which may help the up gap some uf us were seeing.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/05/wo...-measures.html

If you don't have time to read the article: Monti moved a meeting of his cabinet which was scheduled for Monday, today. At the moment of writing this, the cabinet meeting should be almost done. If the message of this meeting is strong (it's about a very heavy austerity plan) markets may gap up.

I don't see any other reason for moving the meeting from Monday to...
So far nothing. Will watch the tickers to see where price moves until open.

Just like the physical drug, as the body (market) becomes more accustomed to it (hopium), it takes larger doses to get the same effect.

edit: getting pretty good at this - two out of three pages on top
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #13,314
  • Dec 4, 2011 11:30am Dec 4, 2011 11:30am
Quoting spzd
Just like the physical drug, as the body (market) becomes more accustomed to it (hopium), it takes larger doses to get the same effect.
Nicely said
  • #13,315
  • Dec 4, 2011 11:37am Dec 4, 2011 11:37am
What you are about to read should absolutely astound you. During the last financial crisis, the Federal Reserve secretly conducted the biggest bailout in the history of the world, and the Fed fought in court for several years to keep it a secret. Do you remember the TARP bailout? The American people were absolutely outraged that the federal government spent 700 billion dollars bailing out the "too big to fail" banks. Well, that bailout was pocket change compared to what the Federal Reserve did.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...-to-fail-banks
  • #13,316
  • Dec 4, 2011 11:48am Dec 4, 2011 11:48am
Quoting Pbh
What you are about to read should absolutely astound you. During the last financial crisis, the Federal Reserve secretly conducted the biggest bailout in the history of the world, and the Fed fought in court for several years to keep it a secret. Do you remember the TARP bailout? The American people were absolutely outraged that the federal government spent 700 billion dollars bailing out the "too big to fail" banks. Well, that bailout was pocket change compared to what the Federal Reserve did.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...-to-fail-banks...
If things such as this don't convince people that the FED needs to be hog tied, nothing will.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #13,317
  • Dec 4, 2011 11:59am Dec 4, 2011 11:59am
Here is the latest edition of
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Hmmm December 04 2011.pdf   1.7 MB | 860 downloads
.

It is always a "must read" for anyone interested in the fundies that drive the markets.

Download it by clicking on the link above and enjoy. You'll need to download Adobe Acrobat Reader if you don't already have it installed.

Here's the link again:
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Hmmm December 04 2011.pdf   1.7 MB | 860 downloads


Oh, watch the music video too. Not related, but it's good for some entertainment

Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,318
  • Dec 4, 2011 12:27pm Dec 4, 2011 12:27pm
Quoting Pbh
...
I'm still waiting for the possibility of a fiscal integration, because to me, it looks pretty much late to ride the bull train.

In case we don't get the fiscal integration or euro printing, it's back to reality...
...
This is what I wrote to PT about this subject:

Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Ok my friend. So let us count the options:

1) Fiscal union - to form a fully functional fiscal union, they would need to remake Lisabon Treaty. And our president aint going to sign that, and he wont be alone. Other option is some kind of addition to current treaty. Some kind of detour so nations wont need to approve that. I acknowledge this may happen. But is it a positive signal or just a more can kicking? For me it is definitely not positive signal.

2) Bonds - ok Angie, those are not Eurobonds, but Stabilization bonds. Satisfied? Well, this may work. But I aint sure about Angie, I dont think she is going to let this through.

3) Printing press - imho the best solution during current circumstances. But will it be politically acceptable? This option, has the same problem as Eurobonds. Angies falling numbers of voters at her homeland.

Conclusion: I dont think Angie will step aside in both 2) and 3) for sure. Maybe in one aspect, partially. As the more possible one, I see Eurobonds. But I give it like 30% they will pass. The most possible option I see is somewhat detour around Lisabon treaty and some form of fiscal union. That is imo the most possible outcome of the summit. But this aint giving me, as an investor, any confidence at all. If they manage to pass both bonds and wtfiscal union through, I will short from 377 - 379 pretty happily.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,319
  • Dec 4, 2011 12:29pm Dec 4, 2011 12:29pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Here is the latest edition of Attachment .
Tnx. Going to chew it for some time. Cya in an hour .

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,320
  • Dec 4, 2011 12:40pm Dec 4, 2011 12:40pm
BBC2 7pm tonight,thats 20mins approx

The Party`s Over - How the West went bust

Part 1 of 2 I think its the newsnight correspondant doing it so should be pretty good.
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